EPTSurprisingly Normal Mini Mafia XI
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
I've vaguely looked at the thread before, but I'm going to have to have a serious readthrough and come back to you. Two things: the lynch on Veriat was obviously a good result, and made more interesting by the fact it was barely achieved. What I have noticed from my glancethrough is that some of you are reading more into the votes than you should be. Newbie games are absolutely notorious for connection play. Anyway, I will draw my own conclusions from the vote and get back to you. Second of all, I am not AcesAnoka. You may think his posting is terrible as hell or that he was scummy and lurky or whatever, but please approach my posting with an open mind. If you're gonna call me scum, call me scum because of what I've done. That will do for now. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
I'm glad people have generally grasped that someone voting for Veriat didn't make them town necessarily. The lynch was a very interesting one as it was achieved with nothing to spare. Basically that's 2 options: scum did everything they could do prevent Veriat's lynch and failed. This would imply the people not voting Veriat are scum. The other option is that scum (either one or both) decided to go for mucho town cred by bussing Veriat. It's impossible to say at this point. The only other thing that stood out in conjunction with this is that Veriat threw suspicion at zen (possible omgus), jailbreaker, and nreekay - the last two who were not on the Veriat wagon. My feelings on this are that scum would be unlikely to go all-out to save Veriat by not voting him AND throw suspicion on their own kind at the same time - that seems like an unnecessary risk. At the moment, a prime scummy candidate would seem to be Jailbreaker. I will have to look at his filter to see if a case should be made, but the impression is he just posts useless crap. Whether he's a bad townie or scummyscumscum at this stage is somewhat unclear. The second person I am most interested in is WhySoMuch. There were a couple of things that stood out at me just browsing the thread: 1) lots of vote changes. Doesn't have to be alignment indicative, but it stood out 2) The only quote from someone I actually have written down - "Town reads are more important than mafia reads". Interesting - I thought we were here to lynch scum. He expressed the same opinion AGAIN, and then listed his own town reads. Unless I am mistaken, this also happened at night. Sounds like it could be town-read fishing -> mafia kills. Lists of town reads, especially at night, are bad, mmkay? Like I said, they only give mafia targets. If you have people you think are pretty likely town - good!! You don't need to tell all of us. Do you really think that saying "blabla seems extremely townie" is going to convince anyone that person is town if they didn't think so already? 3) He called out golden very quickly saying that if Veriat was scum, golden was scum. Say whaaaaaaaat? So someone casts the deciding vote to lynch a scum and they're scum? I mean, it's possible, sure, but that's an incredible leap to make. It does point out that Whysomuch is extremely aware that scum could be bussing scum to try to gain towncred. Related to this is that he points out himself that he looks good for voting Veriat. So he looks awesomely townie for lynching the scum and golden, the guy who actually got the scum lynched, looks scummy. k. Anyway, reading the filters is an even bigger task than reading the thread, but I will work on it diligently. There's some food for thought in the meanwhile. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On May 01 2012 09:56 WhySoMuch wrote: 2nd point) Yes we are here to lynch scum, but the only way mafias win is by mislynches. By establishing our town reads, we take away mislynches. You see the same names popping up on town lists and those people all of a sudden become unlynchable, thereby taking away mislynches. The point of having town reads isn't to convince other people to have the same town reads, it's that if everyone makes a town reads list, you have a group of players that will show up on multiple lists, thereby increasing our chances of hitting a mafia. 3rd point) No it isn't, he was forced to make the vote. If he didn't it would automatically be mafia/mafia no questions asked. He put Veriat on his mafia list and was "Happy to vote him". He was also Pro-D1 lynch in the discussion earlier, and if he didn't vote that would go against his policy. No this doesn't automatically mean he is a mafia, but awarding town points to Golden is wrong. To the bold - what is this nonsense? People don't become unlynchable for turning up on lists, that's absurd. People are unlynchable when they're dead. If a couple of people have someone down as a town-read and I think he's scum, is that going to stop me making a case on them? No, of course it isn't. You don't find mafia because people turn up on lists. You find mafia because they are scummy, simple as that. On May 01 2012 10:00 WhySoMuch wrote: to add to your 3rd point: Yeah, I do look better than Golden, So does Splinter so does PureSC so does Mordanis. The deciding vote there is not what got Veriat lynched, and the town successfully twisted Golden's arm to vote a mafia, that may not be the right phrase, as Golden could be a town in which case we still "forced" him to vote Veriat, but Golden would do that anyways in that scenario, but if he were mafia and the votes were say 5-3, then golden would not have had to switch. So in the scenario where scum decides to bus Veriat, is it not more likely that they do so in the midst of the voting rather than at the end? golden wasn't 'forced' to vote for anyone, he voted who he wanted to. He could have made a non-vote earlier on in the day on someone like aces (me) or whoever was suspicious at the time. You seem to have a preconceived notion of how people 'should' play - well, people don't necessarily play like that. You're inventing narratives that to you sound likely, but they are not necessarily true, or even the likeliest narrative. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On May 01 2012 10:00 WhySoMuch wrote: to add to your 3rd point: Yeah, I do look better than Golden, So does Splinter so does PureSC so does Mordanis. The deciding vote there is not what got Veriat lynched, and the town successfully twisted Golden's arm to vote a mafia, that may not be the right phrase, as Golden could be a town in which case we still "forced" him to vote Veriat, but Golden would do that anyways in that scenario, but if he were mafia and the votes were say 5-3, then golden would not have had to switch. I'm gonna carry on, because I really must make you think about things properly. So this post says - in a scenario that didn't happen (5-3), golden may have acted in a different manner. Right. Further to this, in the scenario that actually occurred, a townie golden would vote for Veriat, and in your world, a scummy one would. Thus golden would be voting for Veriat whichever alignment he is. Further further to this, a townie golden would practically always vote for Veriat in that situation to force a lynch, whereas a scummy golden could potentially take the option to force a no-lynch, saving his scumbuddy. See how silly your analysis of the situation is? | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
I also did not say it made golden looked good, I said your assertion that he was scum (your words were something like "If veriat is scum, i believe golden is scum") which I totally dissected in my last post. As it appears I will fail in my bid to make you see common sense, I shall stop this back and forth with you. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
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marvellosity
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Just sayin' | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
Find ONE, yes only ONE, good player on this forum who lists town-reads (at night no less) and encourages others to do the same. Pro-tip: you won't find one. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
It does seem for now that Jailbreaker is the strongest case. Given his filter isn't too long, I probably bear the risk of repeating what others have said, but never mind. First of all, we have the 'I don't want to rush my vote' followed by rushing his vote. On April 27 2012 04:33 Jailbreaker wrote: with all this nonsense talk about scheduals and lynch/no lynch, we're forgetting about the real issue here: THERE'S MAFIA SCUM AMONG US. I know it is day one, but does it have to be so passive? I don't want to vote for the wrong person based on three posts On April 27 2012 11:52 Jailbreaker wrote: vote## yomi He's finally prodded into making a post that has more content than my rubbish bin, but there's so little to note in it I find it hard to comment on it: On April 27 2012 16:05 Jailbreaker wrote: Semi Long Post Warning + Show Spoiler + These are my thoughts so far on what has been posted. right or wrong, this is my interpretation. On April 27 2012 02:57 yomi wrote: these players havent posted: whysomuch mordanis calls them out for lurking: bandwagon under construction On April 27 2012 03:24 yomi wrote: ya rando lynch is bad that's 25% I think to hit which is not profit. But you only need 25 more points to get to 50% and then we are in profit territory so we'll see how it plays out. if everyone is getting along friendly and lurking all day like they are now then we can't do anything. and being useless: bandwagon mobilized. On April 27 2012 03:52 Mordanis wrote: Shit. I was asleep or at class until now. Anyways, I personally think that a lynch on the first day would be a mistake. I haven't followed much mafia, played before, or read as much as I should have, and so my personal view is that it would be a shame to lynch someone solely based on trying to trim down the total pool of people in the spaceship. OHMIGOSH was called a lurker! time to panic! On April 27 2012 04:00 Mordanis wrote: As an addendum to my previous post, it is going to be hard to judge whether someone is lurking or just sleeping, seeing as we have people from USA, Europe, and even South Pacific. Since days are 24 hours and nights are 48 hours, I definitely think that you need to wait for a fairly long time (I'm thinking about 9 hours), because people do occasionally sleep  If nothing else, at least for first little bit we should tell everyone our relative schedules so that there is no misunderstanding. To start this off, I will be going to class in about an hour, and after that I'll be able to post maybe once before going to work until about 10:30ish PM (AZ time) Tries to clear lurker name. because hey, this is a gobal game right? somepeople might need more time. seemsreasonabletome. On April 27 2012 05:27 Lazermonkey wrote: But yet your own post doesn't really contribute much at all. If you think not enough people are posting or that they are posting useless stuff, wouldn't it be better if you did some analysis yourself? I think everyone are conscious about that we have mafia among us and everyone would like to avoid dumb misslynches. You are stating the obvious here. Your post is even a bit counterproductive in that you discouraging people from making posts about lynch/no lynch. Afaik there isn't much else to talk about atm but please let us know if there is something. Talking about peoples opinions about lynching gives us a tell on their gameplan/motives etc. so I find nothing bad with it. I'm off to bed now. There is a chance that I will not be able to post to much untill 20:00 CEST tomorrow. You're right, I should put more analysis into my posts. On April 27 2012 10:22 WhySoMuch wrote: Hey all, This is my first game on this site, but I have played WW elsewhere so I'm not a total newbie. First off, with regards to No-Lynch, this is a very bad idea. We have 2 kills a day as of right now, the vig and the lynch, by negating a kill we are automatically giving the wolves an edge by not taking advantage of our kill-rate. Also, even though a villager is more likely to be lynched, the information we gain via wagon analysis, late vote changes etc. becomes very valuable as we progress through the game. And a random question: Is there any way to get more posts per page? Right now mine is set to default and couldnt find a way to make me see more posts. Idk if it's possible. totally not drawing attention to myself Page 5 is the Yomi versus WhySoMuch showdown Yomi votes for whysomuch, whysomuch votes for The_Zen_Man (where did this come from?) they talk about win rates for town correctly lynching and whatnot I vote for Yomi because I feel like you are starting a bandwagon against whysomuch so early in the game then he asks why i voted for him. I think that is suspicious. then On April 27 2012 12:38 nreekay324 wrote: they're almost as bad as vampires ##vote: whysomuch so confused by this, dont know what to say. next is: On April 27 2012 13:16 WhySoMuch wrote: nreekay's vote on me is weirder than yomi I think I see this as: "YOMI has a reason to vote for me. Nreekay is prolly jumping on the bandwagon" O.Golden_ne - obvious critical analysis out in the open. BOOM CHECK IT next set of posts is my fail vote, lol. I vote for yomi for reasons stated above Mordanis- i think he is just trying to keep a "netural" image. I'm totally against the witchhunt too, I will put more analysis into posts. But within it, he does say this twice: On April 27 2012 16:05 Jailbreaker wrote: You're right, I should put more analysis into my posts. On April 27 2012 16:05 Jailbreaker wrote: I will put more analysis into posts. See the bolded part of the post below: On April 28 2012 13:52 Jailbreaker wrote: when i read the past few pages of this thread, most of you seem so suspicious. I dont want to post a Fos untill i can get my logic straightened out. Yes, I realize that my posts have flaws, but I will stand by my decision untill i am fully convinced to change my vote. I don't want to sit in the neutral zone because I feel that it is to passive. What Golden has said in the post above me, "Both these players seem very afraid to be lynched, and squirm under scrutiny." Even though it is for two different players, getting accused causes panic and action. I feel like it would be easier to identify between scum and town. Im going to stand by my vote of yomi. No apologies for my shallow posts. The last few quotes have all gone to generally illustrate the point that Jailbreaker is aware his posts are lacking. In fact, he keeps repeating it (instead of, you know, analysing). And finally there, 'no apologies for his shallow posts'. O.o Finally we have a vague suspicion thrown at Mordanis: On April 30 2012 16:13 Jailbreaker wrote: Mordanis - + Show Spoiler + On April 30 2012 11:53 Mordanis wrote: Frankly, I was simply reluctant to change my 3 times in about an hour. In reality, I was more for a lynch for either player than I was for a lynch of specifically one of them. At that point, Aces hadn't posted in about a day, so without knowing any justification for why he was lurking, he was a good candidate for a lynch even if there was a low probability of his being mafia just because he wasn't any help for the town. Hell, I'm still for lynching lurkers even if there is a low probability of them turning out scum because we need to work together. Lurking only hurts us. Also, if you look at the earlier parts of the thread, I was one of the first to put pressure on Veriat, which I don't see mafia doing. After that little bit of defense, I'm very glad to have suspicion cast upon me. We need to have everyone defending themselves and looking at other players behavior. I'd like to think that I'm one of the least scummy posters, but I have no problems. I'll be able to post a bit more in a little bit, so bye for a few minutes :D All I get is a scum vibe from you on this post. But i feel like i don't have enough info on you to make a significant case against you. Seeing how I take individual posts instead of looking at the context of the posts. The bold part is all he says about why he finds it scummy. In other words, no reason at all. But wait, what did we see before? On April 28 2012 13:52 Jailbreaker wrote: I dont want to post a Fos untill i can get my logic straightened out. A-ha! He doesn't want to post a FoS until his logic is straightened out. Except he then does exactly that against Mordanis with... no logic at all. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- At this point Jailbreaker is the strongest and most obvious scumread. One question for the thread. 1) Are you sure that he's scum and not just bad town? Second nagging feeling is how Veriat fingered Jailbreaker and nreekay, the two 'popular' suspects for today. Makes me a little uncomfortable. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
The problems are contained in your questions 1 and 2. I can see nothing that makes me think one is more likely than the other. This very much isn't a dig at you, but this is classic wifom territory - the answer changes every time you add or takeaway a piece of information of logical thinking from the equation. I suppose this is why I said it makes me feel uncomfortable - I can't draw any worthwhile conclusions from his fingering, and yet they still exist. Going through my thought process, I'm glad you made me think about it a little more. In my view, for now, effectively ignoring who Veriat pointed fingers at is probably the best mindset. If we think someone is scum, then we shouldn't worry what Veriat thought. Moving on - Jailbreaker is obviously a likely lynch today. But it doesn't do town much good just to go 'yep, we'll lynch this guy', so if there are other cases to be made, let's give it a go. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On May 01 2012 23:56 Mordanis wrote: In response to Marvellosity's question about whether Jailbreaker is bad town or mafia: I'm sure you've read my opinion on this type of question before, but I think that Jailbreaker is the most obvious candidate for a lynch. First, I think he looks the scummiest. We want to get rid of the scum. But secondly, if we're wrong and he turns out to be town, we aren't going to lose much. His posts are confusing, shallow, and (with the "nononononono you are planet wrong" post) actively making an argument not to lynch scum, without evidence, and against his earlier stance "THERES MAFIA SCUM AMONG US". Using my patented SCUm DEtection Probability (SCUDEP: my arbitrary estimates of the probability that a player is mafia), I'd say Jailbreakers maxing at maybe 55% (compared to 20% random), but we would only really lose a number from our town count, and gain freedom from seemingly actively dumb posts. I hate this type of reasoning. If it's a mislynch, then basically we lose two townies for free (barring the unlikely event Mafia KP at night is blocked). Then we're back in the Day cycle with the same number of mafias and two less townies. However useless he is, this is not good for town. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
6 townies 2 mafia is an infinitely worse situation than 8 townies 2 mafia with 1 townie you think is bad. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
Jailbreaker does look pretty scummy (as per my case against him), and as it stands now I can't think of a better lynch candidate. I think generally I'm always just a little concerned at 'easy' lynches just because they're easy. Seems like it should be harder. Nonetheless: ##Vote: Jailbreaker | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
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