EPTNewbie Mini Mafia IX
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Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
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Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
Anyway, good morning all. First real game of Mafia, played in the big game that GMarshal tried to host a while ago which turned into a mess of modkills and replacements. It seems I agree with the majority in terms of accepting a lynch on a lurker. I think a very important aspect of playing mafia is to set an atmosphere where posting is encouraged. The more people post, the more we have to analyse which is critical to getting good reads and not making poor decisions. So far it looks like we have had some activity from the majority of players which is good to see. Another issue that I believe is important, you should always try to justify your logic behind your voting. Doing so will provide valuable insight as to what you are thinking. | ||
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Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
I should probably clarify that the acceptance of a lurker lynch of obviously conditioned on the fact that there are no other suspects out there. I think from Day 2 onwards hopefully we have sufficient information to make a logical and well reasoned lynch. | ||
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Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
However, this early in the game I am more willing to let it slide simply because I understand your intentions, they are simply to get people involved in the discussion etc. After the first couple of days I am less willing to treat this in a similar manner, simply because I don't think it really serves a purpose to encourage people to spam up the thread. This would only serve to muddy the waters etc. Clearly there is a balancing act involved, we want to encourage activity but not meaningless spam. People need to post, however I would prefer they be clear and concise and actually contribute to the discussion. | ||
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Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
If a no lynch is even possible I don't think it is a terrible outcome, in most of the past Newbie games I have flicked through I notice that it tends to be a townie who is lynched first, and the overall odds support the same occuring more commonly than a Mafia getting lynched. A no lynch would give us an additional 24 hours with the full contingent of players to add posts and help us all form a more well-rounded view of each player, then after the Mafia night kill we would be down to 8 townies. I would prefer this than to be down to 7 due to a mislynch on Day1. However, there are down-sides to a no-lynch. A few people have mentioned that you get a lack of information, you don't get a flip, but you still do have the people's votes to review and you can examine their logic and reasoning behind why they put their votes where they did. But it may not necessarily mean as much without a flip. ##Vote: Macheji For now I am going to put my vote on Macheji, he has contributed 3 posts, 2 which are essentially the same and the 3rd is questioning the logic behind 'pressure voting'. Each of the 3 posts are roughly 1 sentence each, I know we want people to be clear and concise, but you really need to make an effort to add more to your posts. | ||
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Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
Fair enough. To clarify, I would prefer to No Lynch if that is an available option, and would change my vote off Macheji if that were to become an option. Where do you stand on the issue out of curiousity? Initially you indicated that you would be happy to lynch a lurker, I assume that is still what you are planning to do. If a no lynch was an option where do you stand? | ||
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Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
I notice you haven't thrown your vote anywhere yet, do you have any candidates in mind at this stage? | ||
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Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
I did change my stance along the way there, that much is evident. Initially I did not really consider no lynch as an option. Most games where a no lynch is allowed they typically state such in the rules. I know I saw a game which had that noted in the rules, for example this game. + Show Spoiler + Voting rules: 6. Voting is mandatory. You may (NOT) abstain. If a no Lynch is reached, everyone must still have casted a vote (you can vote for ##Vote: No-Lynch) I don't see what's wrong with wanting some more activity and posting from people before forming such an important decision. I still stand by what I said. If a no lynch is an option it is the option I would prefer. In the alternative a lurker would be acceptable assuming we can't find a suitable suspect. I would also like to add, that although the discussion regarding lynch v no lynch may not mean anything if indeed you cannot vote for a no lynch. It does however provide the opportunity for people to comment and add their perspective as to what they feel about the policy. This provides us with information which we can analyse nd to help show the motivation and logic behind their arguements. So it is far from fruitless. | ||
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Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
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Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
I will assume that is in regards to the no lynch issues? If so tell us what about the no lynch you don't like? I know you only replaced in recently, but you haven't really contributed except for a hello post and a couple of one-liners. If it is not in regards to the no lynch, who are you liking less and why? | ||
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Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
I have reviewed Solohan's first couple of posts a couple times, and I honestly don't find anything nearly as much of an eyebrow raiser as what you mentioned in your first post. So I must say I am quite keen to see what you have picked up that I have missed. In reference to what I find strange about your first post is simply; On April 14 2012 23:02 Nova_Terra wrote: Okay, thank god, not mafia :D I want to point something out. Note how both The Leader of the Town and Jitsu The Mafia Specialist died? Thats what we want here. Take someone down with you if you are a townie. Dont die in vain, at least post your thoughts first. I have the utmost confidence in our abilities as a town together to kill the mafia. BUT, until we get the town together, we will suck. So play a team game. Dont decide *SCREW EVERYONE ELSE, i understand exactly whats happening." So lets get this started. I don't really know who you are trying to convince with that statement. In my opinion you are doing enough for the town for me to believe you are more likely town than Mafia. I like your activity and the pressure voting you applied early to try and spark some activity. So I just don't understand why you said that. Judging by your posting it's not like you needed too. Just some food for thought. | ||
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Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
I think your case against Nova makes sense. I too got an early initial impression that he was a bit weird. What really stuck with me is obviously the same thing I pointed out in my earlier post, his statement of; Okay, thank god, not mafia :D I didn't actually read through the first couple of pages prior to the game starting so I missed the phrase you quoted about him being terrible town, as I signed up on Page 3. I do like the fact that he tried to pressure vote some people into contributing, but that in itself is not a town nor mafia tell. Gathering more contributions at such an early stage of the game just simply helps set the game up and could be done by either side. The content in his initial posts where laden with a decent amount of fluff. In regards to your reads on Crossfire99 and Lazermonkey I also have them trending towards Mafia on my notes, but at this stage those notes are far from conclusive. Of the two I think Lazermonkey raises more red flags. I will briefly summarise what I have noticed from him so far; Opinions on Lazermonkey's Play In his initial post his very first statement reads; On April 14 2012 23:38 Lazermonkey wrote: Sup everyone! So I'm kinda noob at this atm (...) So before contributing or anything else he immediately establishes the fact he is a 'noob'. Being that this is a Newbie Mafia game this would seem like a fairly easy assumption to make and apply to all the players. So why is there the need to state this? I don't think this is really relevant to mention as a townie, and would be mentioned more by someone who is trying to set up a way out or an excuse for any decisions or actions made during the game. Which to me is something a mafia would want to do more so than a townie. His next several posts all include quotes and statements from Nova_Terra, while this could possibly be due to his activity and the sheer volume of Nova's posts. On all three counts he simply agrees with the posts and adds a little fluff here and there to round out the posts, like encouraging people to post stating the current game situation etc. + Show Spoiler + On April 15 2012 01:00 Lazermonkey wrote: True, tho I added that I'd rather lynch someone in order to archive information than just some random lurker. And besides there really isn't much to discuss yet. On April 15 2012 15:31 Lazermonkey wrote: Morning EU-budds! People really need to start posting now, it's been almost 24 h since the day post came up, and we still only got ~2 pages of posts during that time. I think it's a decent idea to start pressuring era now, however if he doesn't show up at all I guess he will be replaced anyway. Therefore we don't need to care to much about it as of now. On April 15 2012 17:12 Lazermonkey wrote: I agree with you(Nova) on Solohan, but I think it will be hard de determ whether that is due to him being town and expressing himself the right way or if he is actuall scum. I also think that it is time for Macheji to step up a bit more. He has posted 4 posts so far, but all of them have been very short and havn't added anything useful yet. He states he is suspicious of Solohan50, who at the moment is lurking. But his early opinions seem to just line up quite nicely with Nova without really adding anything else of his own. Nova clearly states he finds the first two posts of Solohan50's scummy, I have tried to find these tells myself to no avail so far. So maybe Lazermonkey has picked up on these as well? Or is simply agreeing with Nova who appears to be the 'town leader'. Conclusion Lazermonkey's activity has been good and he has contributed a decent amount and I get the impression that it is a bit more substance than fluff at the moment. The issues I have raised are only what have stood out for me. Clearly this is not lynch worthy and i would not push a lynch with this level of substance to a case. But I am more trying to see if anyone else shares my concerns or what their thoughts on the matter are. | ||
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Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
@ Pure-SC2 I probably should have included this in my last post also. But another post from Nova that is bugging me is; On April 16 2012 02:11 Nova_Terra wrote: What now? Why would i not swap off of a pressure vote when the idea was to get that person to post? are you trying to tell me i should do exactly what i did as scum last game and be like, MEH, He posted, but i want to lynch him anyway? That hardly makes sense. Also, Lynching a lurker provides benefits like being able to see who voted when, peoples stances, and more importantly it sets an expectation that people who lurk will die. as an incentive to post. There isnt positive reinforcement on this game. If you lurk, you die. if you're active, you still might die, but at least you'll be helpful to the town first. First of all I have no idea as to who this post was aimed at, maybe Therapist? But to me this post gives me a bad vibe. It seems like quite an aggressive defense (in particular the first two lines), and the tone seems that of exasperation or aggression. I don't think you mentioned the post in your case, but what kind of impression does that post leave you with? | ||
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Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
We clearly have a large contingent of lurkers at the moment, but I feel comfortable enough lynching Nova as I think between Pure-SC2's case and my personal impressions I would be happy with the result. ##Unvote: Macheji ##Vote: Nova_Terra Anyway 12:45am here, time for me to go to bed. Boss is out of the office for the week so should have the thread open for a decent portion of the day. Will check in on the thread every now and again. | ||
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Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
Only just got to work and access to the thread. So I won't have time to process everything. After quickly skimming through the thread I still like my initial view on Nova. I still find you suspicious, but I can't ignore the fact that you certainly are active, and there is no time to process everything thoroughly before the end of the day. @ Nova Why is oneplus a better lynch candidate then you? | ||
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Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
At this point I think you have contributed enough to spare you from the Day 1 lynch. As I said I haven't had a chance to really look through the last few pages thoroughly. I still have my suspicions, but for now I might consolidate the vote on oneplus. To prevent any last minute switching. ##Unvote: Nova_Terra ##Vote: oneplus | ||
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Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
The main thing I don't like is still those two posts, they just give me an uneasy feeling. You have certainly done some good work, and I like a lot of the things you have been doing in the thread. But those two posts just mean I have a heard time fully trusting you. | ||
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Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
Sure, the two posts are; On April 14 2012 23:02 Nova_Terra wrote: Okay, thank god, not mafia :D I want to point something out. Note how both The Leader of the Town and Jitsu The Mafia Specialist died? Thats what we want here. Take someone down with you if you are a townie. Dont die in vain, at least post your thoughts first. I have the utmost confidence in our abilities as a town together to kill the mafia. BUT, until we get the town together, we will suck. So play a team game. Dont decide *SCREW EVERYONE ELSE, i understand exactly whats happening." So lets get this started. On April 16 2012 02:11 Nova_Terra wrote: What now? Why would i not swap off of a pressure vote when the idea was to get that person to post? are you trying to tell me i should do exactly what i did as scum last game and be like, MEH, He posted, but i want to lynch him anyway? That hardly makes sense. Also, Lynching a lurker provides benefits like being able to see who voted when, peoples stances, and more importantly it sets an expectation that people who lurk will die. as an incentive to post. There isnt positive reinforcement on this game. If you lurk, you die. if you're active, you still might die, but at least you'll be helpful to the town first. The parts I don't like are the first statement in the first post (not mafia part) and the overal tone in the first couple sentences in the second post (the part up to "That hardly makes sense"). | ||
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Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
ONEPLUS (Townie) - excuse for poor english - explanation of odds on random lynching - wants a town leader - argument with both @Nova & @Lazer - kind of OMGUS reaction to @Nova - thinks that maybe Lazer is bussing Nova - says Lazer changes his vote too sudden ** Initial post included an excuse for poor english, I really don’t like people posting excuses, especially in their opening posts, sets a bad precedent. But this excuse isn’t really related that much to gameplay so it is slightly more acceptable. Especially considering it appears english is not his primary language. ** Wants a town leader, not a huge fan of that idea, I would prefer everyone to work on their own and contribute to the towns goals as a group rather than relying on 1 figurehead to guide us around like sheep. ** Odds on random lynching, not terribly informative, anyone can do this basic math. ** Argues with @Lazer and @Nova who at that point I had scummy reads on, he does make some sense here and there but it can be hard to read and decipher at times. Forces a reaction out of both @Nova and @Lazer, claiming OMGUS for their pressure votes on him. But @oneplus had pressure votes on him from other players too, yet he only singled out @Nova and @Lazer. Thinks there is a connection between the two. But if you look @Lazer, you can see he has a town read on @Nova (prior to @Pure-SC2’s case), but i don’t know how invested into an argument you would get to protect a modest at best town read, but again that’s WIFOM. ** Thinks that @Lazer might be bussing @Nova, could be possible. States that @Lazer changed his vote too suddenly. PEOPLE THAT VOTED FOR ONEPLUS BlueyD ** From his posting history he seems to have a town read on @Nova, he has stated a few times that some of @Nova’s actions push him towards town, ie not worrying about his own safety and accusations and pressure on @Solohan. ** His lynch switch doesn’t raise significant eyebrows either. His vote would have been wasted had he not switched. If he is town he would try protect his town read (@Nova), if mafia almost anything can happen, although I imagine bussing your teammates at this stage would be retarded. Crossfire99 ** Uses the phrase ‘to save @Nova’ rather than to lynch @oneplus. To me that signals that he is leaning town on @Nova, or is at least on the same page as @Nova. @Pure-SC2 thinks they could be scum teammates, definitely a possibility. I basically came to the same conclusion in regards to the lynch so can’t be too critical. ** Should make a point of pressuring him for his point of view, he doesn’t really seem to put his ‘money’ anywhere, almost looks like he will take whatever comes his way. I certainly expect more from him if he is to remove any scum suspicions. Lazermonkey ** Seems to buddy up to @Nova, maybe he feels @Nova’s activity and pressure voting (which he states he likes) make him a townie read? This is confirmed in his post about switching his vote to Nova. @Pure-SC2 posted a good case on @Nova, which apparently was all the convincing @Lazer needed to switch. Although it’s a rather meek acceptance, slightly defends @Nova while still voting for him. Then finally says something along the lines of ‘if @Nova is townie gotta look @Pure-SC2’, counter-wagon maybe? ** Was convinced @oneplus was bad town (I think during their spat), yet is happy to vote for a bad town as opposed to anyone else. Kind of OMGUS. Nova_Terra ** Seems to be rushing some posts, I would think that is more a sign of townie-ness being unafraid to post your thoughts immediately without fear. I know when I was Mafia I was careful to review and preview my posts before submitting them. No reason to think other players wouldn’t do the same. ** Didn’t sway from his town read on @oneplus. Only switched his vote as an effort to save himself which makes sense. I like how he sticked with his read on @oneplus, It’s perfectly acceptable to vote for someone else you have a read on to save yourself. Noone is going to lie down and accept a lynch when they don’t need too. He is also clearly more active than @oneplus, so it isn’t a bad idea to keep him around. There should be more than enough posts to analyse his play on. ** After my early suspicions of @Nova, I think he did a decent job of defending himself, he threw in a few posts which were a bit un-necessary (rude, put-downs etc). He was reasonably aggressive on his defense, a few people came in to post messages of support so either a lot of people have town reads on him, or his scum team and a few sheep came in to save him. ** Says he has a town read on @Pure-SC2, I think for almost anyone in the thread he is the most obvious town read. Would be very shocked if he were to flip Mafia at this point, however it is still early. @Nova was probably the easiest target due to his excessive posting. I wouldn’t think someone as Mafia would give a town read on someone who posted a good case on them, but that is simply WIFOM and nothing more at this stage. Therapist ** Softly defends @Nova, saying that it’s a bandwagon that is forming. There were a reasonble number of people around at the time, if it was truely an easy bandwagon, why did more people not jump on? Several have town reads on @Nova, or at least state as much (@Crossfire & @BlueyD, @Lazer initially also, prior to @Pure-SC2’s case), his soft defense would suggest that he has either a town read on @Nova or is possibly a teammate? ** Doesn’t see a reason to bandwagon @Nova, but is willing to basically bandwagon @oneplus. Seems slightly hypocritical, but it could simply be because he has a town read on @Nova. Need more information. Although his vote did not end on oneplus I will also include my noted on TheRavensName, because he switched late TheRavensName ** Seems really indecisive, not contributing much in terms of post quantity or quality ** Early on states he has no issue with @Pure-SC2’s case, then @Pure-SC2’s post about the scumslip convinces him, then when he changes his vote to @Nova he isn’t sure about Pure-SC2 again. ** Throws his suspicions around without really providing any information why, doesn’t provide any reads either. ** Last minute of the oneplus lynch he switches off, this change of vote made absolutely no difference at all to the outcome, did it with 15mins to spare. To me that seems to indicate him trying to distance himself from the lynch target. Does he maybe know something we don’t? Possible, but certainly need more information and activity to determine whether this is the case. CONCLUSION I know this is a lot of information to digest and I am not sure how much of it people will agree or disagree with. In case I can't get online prior to the deadline tomorrow here is the link. Also included in this mess if you have a look at my notes about @Nova_Terra it states in their why I was willing to take my vote off him to an extent. I will also briefly explain again here why I changed. Nova_Terra has by far posted the most content in the thread so far, that's easy to see. At the time of the vote, I didn't have the time to thoroughly analyse roughly pages 10-14 prior to the lynch deadline. I skimmed through and noticed Nova_Terra had been incredibly active during this time so i chose to spare him so i could read through his posts to see what I thought of him. As you can see from my notes he is slowly erasing my earlier doubts about him. I am not yet willing to 'confirm him town' but he is trending that way. | ||
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Daymor
New Zealand151 Posts
Lurking particularly badly - Macheji - Solohan50 Lurking but posting enough to get by - Therapist - TheRavensName Contributing, but want more - BlueyD - Lorant Crossfire dying doesn't surprise me all that much, I was thinking that Mafia would probably target either a lurker, Pure-SC2, Nova_Terra or possibly myself. Why did I not find his death surprising? Crossfire had been lurking fairly hard to start the game, he was unwilling to take a stand on anything really. His posts were wishy-washy-ish. Suspected a few people here and there but never built a solid case, defended himself from Lorant a little bit, although he wasn't in significant danger. All this gives the impression that he wasn't really trying to ruffle any feathers and fly beneath the radar. Now in my mind, when I think about who could possibly have those motivations, it would either be a Blue or a Mafia. As it turns out Crossfire was a Vigilante, now why does this make him a good target? Easy, the Mafia are all well aware of who each other are, and I would imagine either 1-2 would be lurking trying to avoid as much responsibility and suspicion as possible. So for them to shoot into the Lurkers, I figure the odds are they will either pick off a dis-interested townie or a blue trying to hide, neither of which are a bad result for Mafia. This is why I think we really really need to start pushing these lurkers to step up and take some responsibility, yes this is still early days. But we have had like 80hours to contribute, that's over three days and some people have posted less than 10 times. That is pathetic, if you are town what reason do you have for trying to blend into the background and contribute absolutely nothing? I honestly can't find any. My Proposal I think we should seriously consider lynching into this group of lurkers. At the moment I still think @Lazermonkey will be a good lynch, but he will be around the day after also. And the longer we let these lurkers contribute absolutely nothing towards the town's success the more detrimental it will be. If it comes to Day 3 and we still have people barely contributing, you are fast approaching the point where you have to lynch right or we lose. Feedback Please note, this is just my observations of where we currently stand, I would really appreciate some feedback and opinions of what you guys think. Clearly the fact that we have a lurker problem is not really in dispute. I admit this is a bit of a radical plan, but I think if we can fix the lurker problem sooner rather than later, we will have more posts to analyse from which we can hopefully pick up information from. | ||
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