EPTPick Your Power Mafia 3!
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
I think this debate will become down to whether or not giving town info/roles outweighs giving mafia info/roles. Couple things for the plan: 1) Mafia has only 1 KP, so I feel like the only way they can possibly win is if they get a KP role. 2) Role cop has some usage by checking roles and seeing if it corresponds to what role they should have gotten. 3) Allows for more roles a) Avoids clash between town for important town roles ie tracker (although refer to 1b and 2 of the following list) 4) Doesn't guarantee a stop in giving mafia roles that they would want ie CPR Doc Couple things I'm concerned about LSB's plan: 1) Guarantee that mafia will get roles a) Since we know the draft order once we pick numbers, if mafia lands on one of the roles that is crucial to mafia, ie vigilante, mafia can relax in getting the role they want. b) Even if mafia doesn't get the role they want according to LSB's list, they may still conform with the list just to deny the town with a useful role ie Bullet Bill c) All the roles are useful for mafia in some way (except role cop, but refer to 2) 2) Still doesn't stop mafia from clashing with important town roles, esp if mafia ends up with a role that they don't want 2) Plan makes bulletproof and veteran useless, as they can't draw in mafia KP. 3) Mafia will know who is what role, and is able to target by role instead of in the dark. Right now, I'm leaning towards no to LSB's plan, partly because of pregame discussion but mostly because I feel cons outweigh pros. | ||
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
Role cop (can only confirm roles in list, not really guarantee that they are mafia), JOAT (can only investigate once), tracker (if used effectively), and parity cop Tracker and parity cop seems like the only investigative roles that the town can rely on. (And JOAT, but that person can only check once) | ||
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
Also, you may have addressed my post indirectly from answering everyone else's concern, but can you address my post directly? That would make it so much easier for me to analyze your plan, without thinking you left something out. On January 07 2011 16:25 Misder wrote: Couple things I'm concerned about LSB's plan: 1) Guarantee that mafia will get roles a) Since we know the draft order once we pick numbers, if mafia lands on one of the roles that is crucial to mafia, ie vigilante, mafia can relax in getting the role they want. b) Even if mafia doesn't get the role they want according to LSB's list, they may still conform with the list just to deny the town with a useful role ie Bullet Bill c) All the roles are useful for mafia in some way (except role cop, but refer to 2) 2) Still doesn't stop mafia from clashing with important town roles, esp if mafia ends up with a role that they don't want 2) Plan makes bulletproof and veteran useless, as they can't draw in mafia KP. 3) Mafia will know who is what role, and is able to target by role instead of in the dark. | ||
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
Either, the mafia chose really low numbers, but made it unique, so [1][x], [2][x], [3][x], [[4][x], [5] to get the top spaces Or, the mafia chose really high numbers and clashed on purpose to get the bottom spaces It seems like the mafia didn't try to clash, so I think that Either the mafia don't care about their roles (they plan to take town role anyways or is happy with any role) Or the mafia tried to get top spaces the latter being the most likely This may help us find likely mafia in the future, but we will see. | ||
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
I also believe that people that posted against LSB's plan without a reason is likely mafia (I'm thinking Fishball, BC) | ||
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
What Ace meant by the most unique number is that for example, 3 people picked [2] as their first number. However, there were only 2 people that picked [11], so the [11] is more unique, and therefore pick ahead of the [2]s. This goes with the other numbers. I think Ace did this method first, so that allows LayoffRage and bumalarge to be ahead of Jackal and the rest, even though they both chose the same #. | ||
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
On January 09 2011 11:21 Ace wrote: You have 24 hours from now to send in your picks. Which means tomorrow night at 9:30 ET/11:30 KST More exact. | ||
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
Before game starts goes like this: On January 07 2011 08:22 Fishball wrote: Decided to join last minute, I haven't read anything yet, including OP. I'll read it later when I have time. I just want to bring this up front first, it will be very unlikely for me to follow LSB's plan. I thought that the "very unlikely" part would mean that 1) you had a reason to not follow the plan and 2) you were going to consider it. But then: On January 07 2011 14:59 Fishball wrote: First off, /confirmed. I was the most active Mafia member in that game, and I have also addressed this wasn't the case (selective reading?). I've mentioned in this thread, saying that Radfield's plan had its merits and applied constraints to the Mafia, but for the most part, it wasn't a huge issue. What I mean by constraints, is that Mafia were not able to pick up roles such as Bad Santa, Prince of Darkness, and Compulsive Vigilante, these powerful Pro-Mafia roles as freely as we wanted, forcing us to put more thought into what to pick, as well as "blending in". His plan was also more viable due to a variation of choices per draft, unlike yours. Your plan is basically handing out free information to the Mafia. Our alignment PM's have already been sent by Ace. So if you are still pushing for the plan, you are one or more of the following: - You are Mafia, wanting to fish information. - You are aiming for the Traitor role, feeding Mafia information to help your side to win. - You are butt-hurt after multiple players told you this wasn't a good plan, and your ego refuses to let yourself back down. - You are simply naive. LSB had already addressed that problem, and you still follow through with it. As far as I'm aware, town won PYP 2. Because mafia wasn't able to pick up KP. LSBs plan does the same. First you say that the only problem was not getting the right role as mafia, then you say that the plan gives off too much info, and that's the problem. On January 08 2011 06:15 Fishball wrote: This is exactly the main thing I've been trying to say; The main difference between Radfield's plan and his. Huge difference, to be exact. Oh, and just so it's known to the public. I'm calling BC Mafia/SK! He says its all bad, but doesn't provide another plan? In the other game I played with him where we were both town, he would always try and get what he though was the right plan of action going. He's not doing it here. Also, the "huge difference" was addressed by LSB, and yet he doesn't back up his reasoning. Next post is also -.- So, he wants chaos? What? He basically concedes that without a plan, there will be chaos, and he simply shrugs it off. Deconduo has it almost right, it only benefits the mafia and SK. His only post after that and before Ace announced drafting order is: On January 08 2011 07:55 Fishball wrote: Makes me want to go [1][2]. I will shock everyone in order of their numbers. Sooner or later, all Mafia/SK will die. Genius. Useless. Next couple of posts concern draft order confusion: On January 09 2011 16:46 Fishball wrote: I confirmed with Ace my pick is [6][20]. The picture I'm seeing doesn't add up. On January 09 2011 16:47 Fishball wrote: Unless I'm missing something, which very well may be (haven't been following closely), people are fake claiming? Admits that he hasn't followed closely? Again, when Fishball is town, he actually tried to do stuff. Also, with the info provided at the time, there was no way that he would know for certain that people are fake claiming- creating confusion and provides and excuse for it. On January 10 2011 07:19 Fishball wrote: Not to point fingers at Ace, but this is like PYP2 deja vu for me  .When I first saw the list, and you guys started claiming, I was like there is no way I would end up in 10th spot. I originally picked [2][20], but then changed it to [6][20] because my gut told my there would be too many fuckers picking low numbers. I then confirmed with Ace via PM that he did get my [6][20] pick in, which lead me to think someone has to be lying, or there are errors on the list. Good luck to LSB having people draft their "assigned" roles. I'm surely not following it. Useless post. More defending himself- seems exactly like mafia play. He seems like hes only justifying himself creating confusion. There's no substance to it. He again states hes not following it, yet doesn't provide more of a reason. Remember- he concedes that without a plan, it would cause chaos. On January 10 2011 07:34 Fishball wrote: Hey, you can always take "my" role. What is it? Oh, Doctor! Just remember not to tell anyone so the Mafia won't hit you. Mafia would have to kill one by one- and there are two doctors- they can protect each other if needed. Mafia would still not know who to target. On January 10 2011 10:12 Fishball wrote: Preliminary Mafia list. - BloodyC0bbler - zeks - Misder - aidnai/JimboSilvers (pick one) I was the one who pointed out the abnormal picture, but I never once directed town to look for those players who might be lying. It doesn't make sense for town/mafia to lie. There is no gain whatsoever, besides drawing attention to themselves. It was fortunate that this was sorted out by Ace, but nice try there BC. Oh, like I mentioned before, if I'm town, there is a good chance BC is red. 14. zeks [3] [1] 15. Misder [3] [2] 16. aidnai [3] [3] 17. JimboSilvers [3] [3] 3-1, 3-2, 3-3. Really? I'm picking aidnai due to this post. Are you daft? No, you can't be this bad... I hope. 1st substantial post- but not really. Continues to claim BC is mafia, yet doesn't bring up anything to convince anyone that he is. And accuses some people of being mafia because the # were close. I'll give you that it does seem a bit suspicious, but I'll explain in the next post why it is unlikely. Also, his analysis is all based off #, not posts/behavior- which means hes not really trying to out anyone- more like he seems to be contributing but not really. Also, your fight with BC seems so unrealistic- makes me want to think that both of you are mafia. BC hasn't posted much either- I may have to write up something on him too. | ||
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
On January 10 2011 10:12 Fishball wrote: Preliminary Mafia list. - BloodyC0bbler - zeks - Misder - aidnai/JimboSilvers (pick one) I was the one who pointed out the abnormal picture, but I never once directed town to look for those players who might be lying. It doesn't make sense for town/mafia to lie. There is no gain whatsoever, besides drawing attention to themselves. It was fortunate that this was sorted out by Ace, but nice try there BC. Oh, like I mentioned before, if I'm town, there is a good chance BC is red. 14. zeks [3] [1] 15. Misder [3] [2] 16. aidnai [3] [3] 17. JimboSilvers [3] [3] 3-1, 3-2, 3-3. Really? I'm picking aidnai due to this post. Are you daft? No, you can't be this bad... I hope. It's unlikely that 3-1, 3-2, 3-3 would mean anything in the first place. Going 3-1, 3-2, 3-3 as mafia doesn't gain you anything. All the pro-mafia posts are at the top and at the bottom. Mafia going 3-1, 3-2, 3-3 means that they are going to the bottom of the list. However, before I stated how if mafia wanted the bottom picks, they would have tried a higher # instead and tripled up on that. I would say that going 5-1 would be even better for mafia to get on the bottom because LSB claimed that he would- meaning guarantee clash if LSB wasn't lying. And really- you think that mafia would be that stupid and be that obvious? | ||
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
On January 10 2011 12:57 kitaman27 wrote: Unless you have a good reason to (like traitor or something), I would suggest not claiming yet whether or not you managed to get the role you selected. Why shouldn't we say if we didn't get our roles? If we do say, won't we have a better clue to who took it ie mafia? | ||
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
On January 10 2011 13:26 HaploPaithan wrote: For the same reason no one liked LSB's plan. It lets scum know where the roles to target are. I guess, but if you didn't get the role, wouldn't it help the town to figure out who took it and didn't follow the plan? | ||
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
On January 10 2011 14:30 Fishball wrote: I'm with HaploPaithan here. Your logic just makes me think more and more that you are red. Hey BC, you should tell your muscles to stay low. On January 11 2011 14:23 Fishball wrote: For my draft pick, I was assigned Medic. If I were to pick Traitor, why would I want to announce that I would pick another role before hand? Would it not be better if I did it secretly? Keep in mind, the most convenient way for the Traitor to get recruited is to be hit by the Mafia. If I stuck with the plan, as a medic, wouldn't that increase the chances of me getting hit thus getting recruited? My play thus far has been fairly vocal. Radical accusations, yes, but not entirely without reason. Look at one of those main candidates for lynch, aidnai; Who was the first one to bring him up? BC haven't posted, misder submerged after a brief counter attack, etc.. From what I've seen in the past 24 hours, I've received rather negative reception from the town. Now why would the Mafia want to hit or use their powers on a target like me, a self proclaimed non-medic player, with a small target on top of his head? If I were the Traitor, this serves me no good. I feel an obligation to defend myself here. 1) I don't have time like you do to be able to read this forum until late at night unless on weekends, so "submerged" is not really the appropriate term. The reason why I didn't say anything after you fosed me was that I wasn't even on. 2) The reason I asked that question was basically, LSB's plan was already giving mafia all the info anyways. So naturally, if most people followed the plan, mafia would be the only ones who know who doesn't have their roles, which means that town is at a disadvantage here. I'm pretty sure I understand why people don't like it- because it gives mafia a place to target- but if mafia already knows, then theres no point is suppressing it. So what's illogical about that? 3) I still feel that your early game play is very questionable- and likely scum- as per my previous analysis 4) The reason you wanted to lynch aidnai in the first place was because of # and one post. I'm not saying that he's not scumlike- just that the reason you brought it up wasn't really analysis. 5)Also BC- you didn't even have an original reasoning- again, not saying he's not scumlike, but you didn't make it based off of not posting 6) You stated pregame that you were likely not going to follow LSB. So if you did suddenly say, I might follow it, that's suspicious in itself. You don't need to be medic to increase chances- the way you play already gives the impression that you are not town-aligned- mafia would target you. Either your town and mafia kills a veteran mafia player, or your traitor and mafia gets another member. After reading guides, I learned that we should be focusing on scumhunting, not informative stuff so I'm going with my gut here and ##Vote Fishball | ||
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
On January 11 2011 15:10 aidnai wrote: oh god here i go again i can't help my scummy self You're definitely tunneling now jimbo. Just saying. I'm reading up on the thread, pigsquirrel gave an awful reason for voting me (cause i "don't care", not cause i'm scum). But the rest of his posts look good. Actually excellent for a first time player. As for lynching LayOffRage, thing is, he can be a pretty decent scumhunter, and he's active, and he claimed green. I don't see why he needs to die before we even get a read on the players in the top 8. And fishball is almost certainly not the traitor. If you guys need someone to die with a role to make sure the CC gets something not too strong, I'm your man. How do you know that fishball isn't traitor? And, you discount the possibility that he is SK or mafia. | ||
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
On January 11 2011 23:44 Fishball wrote: Every time your name is brought up, you re-merge. Yes I like to use that word. 1. Everyone has their own schedule. I have a full time job too. I even got myself modkilled in Insane Mafia due to unforeseen circumstances. Time is one thing. But timing on the other hand... Every time your name is brought up, poof. 2. What question? You lost me here. 3. So are my accusations. So the accused is also accusing the accuser of being scummy. Nothing new here. If you have valid points, people will follow. That's all I have to say. 4. Woah, I think you're a bit ahead of yourself here. I never once said "I wanted to lynch aidnai". I only brought him up because he was part of a picture that I had see as abnormal, no matter how minor it is. It generates discussion, and this has already been proven. Unlike some dude who doesn't have "time" and "isn't here". 5. No original reasoning? I'm not going to repeat myself for the third time. Go re-read my posts in the thread. Look at zeks, ignoring my finger pointing. If you're truly innocent you wouldn't need to worry about my ever so soft accusations. All I'm doing is throwing little rocks into the lake; It causes ripples, but sometimes tsunami happens. 6. You may have a point regarding my pre-game comment. Just keep in mind I won't know which spot I would end up as until after the draft. If you still don't get it, I've also said it before, numerous times, pre-game and during the game, that Radfield's plan in PYP2 was more viable due to a certain degree of uncertainty for drafts. Hopefully you won't need me to spill it out. You also say my play gives the impression of not being town aligned; I have already admitted my play was unorthodox (This is a game after all, and for once, I would like to friggin enjoy it), but far from being scummy. I've already explained my motives, logic, and plan in detail, in my previous post. If you don't see any of that, even a little bit, as being "town aligned", and just counter attack me every time you see your name being brought up, I have nothing left to say. Let the Town decide. Really? Every single time, I reemerge right after? As far as I'm concerned, I answer when I can. I can't think of any instance that I posted right after my name was said. If I did, it was either during the weekend or the person and I were both up. 1. I don't understand where you see I come back when I'm accused. Irrelevent, but I was modkilled too that game the same day for the same reason. 2. + Show Spoiler + On January 11 2011 23:44 Fishball wrote: If that's not what you were referring to, what was it that made you think I was mafia? Again, it seems like youre accusing out of the blue. 3. I don't blame people for not reading my analysis on you- town was (too?) focused on confirming roles than actually scum hunting. 4. You brought your lynch target as a way of saying -look, i can't be traitor cause i was the first to say aidnai might be scum- when in reality, that's not the primary reason that aidnai is being targeted. That's what's suspicious. 5. + Show Spoiler + On January 08 2011 06:15 Fishball wrote: I'm pretty sure that you didn't have an original reasoning. Its the fact that you point fingers yet you don't tell why is whats bothering me. It's like you don't want to do analysis. It seems like you assume that town is smart enough to figure out whats going on in your mind and thats good enough. 6. I know you said that, but since no one proposed any other plan that deals with uncertainty (jimbo's did, but even then, you didn't even follow that? or at least support it), and you agreed that without a plan --> chaos which is bad for town in general, plan is the best option for town. And now, we have total confusion because of the uncertainty of who got what. Now we are too focused on confirming town roles. Really? You explained everything in detail? What about accusation on divinek? What about accusation on BC in the very beginning? What about why not having a plan for roles is better than having a plan, after LSB answered your concern? Maybe your right that I read over things and I should reread your posts (again and again), but I'd say that not everything is in detail at all. [QUOTE]On January 11 2011 14:23 Fishball wrote: Right now, I propose to lynch "LayOffRage" for three reasons. - Eliminates the possibility that he is Traitor himself crying wolf. - If he dies and flips Vanilla, the Copy Cat (alignment unknown) will not get any surprising powers. This also proves that there is indeed a Traitor among the top 8, and the Town should be aware. - Eliminates the chance of losing a power role for Town, unlike other lynch targets. This post is the only "plan you propose. And then this: [QUOTE]On January 12 2011 14:37 Fishball wrote: [QUOTE]On January 12 2011 14:07 Beneather wrote: Lool, Wait CC doesn't get Vanilla Townie I thought it was first death  Proof that people tend to not read anything I say, or just everything in general.[/QUOTE] What? One of your reasons to your proposed "plan" was because you didn't want CC to get "any surprising powers". And now you claim that poeple don't read? And I'm pretty sure I accused you first anyways, so technically, your the one who's counterattack. | ||
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
On January 12 2011 14:41 bumatlarge wrote: You guys need to do research : / We could have the CPR send his kill asap, and give the CC in the top 5 some role first. I asked Ace and the first person to send in their target gives role. But I guess we have to have deconduo here to send that in so I guess that's out of the question. We could have aidnai die, as I find him reasonably suspicious, and then witch role get's passed. But I believe Witch should be used relatively soon. So Aidnai, if you are witch I think you should use it and prove yourself, as I doubt SK would take it. If you are a mafia witch, then we can at least force you to use it now, rather then later. Aidnai would be a good check for BB. The CopyCat situation should be treated delicately, but we have to ask a few questions on this. - Why would Jackal lie? What would he gain as SK or mafia? What would he gain as townie? Well If he's lying, I would pin a high chance of him being the traitor we are looking for, but I think he'd rather claim CC as he knows LoR wasn't the traitor, but then again, he gets heavy scrutiny, which is kinda what the traitor wants, so I'll cross that out for now. As mafia or scum, he draws attention away from himself, which is EXACTLY what he wants, regardless of whether he did or did not get/pick CC. As town, if he wants to be a real hero, he will claim it, but it would be in good interests if he said he didn't get it as town. If he was lying, I would make an exception of LaL in this case. If he is town and he is CC, he should tell us to prevent unnecessary deaths of strong roles, and if he gets found out, we will kill him. So, there is a good chance he is not town-aligned. - If Jackal is telling the truth, what should we do? We should try to find the Copy Cat. If CopyCat is town and didn't follow the plan, he should claim and get a lot less FoS then if he was found out. We do have roles to find out obviously. Tracker could be used, but role cop has the most business up there, and should be checking who is most likely. I'd have to agree with the sentiments that CPR and Vig would not really want to steal that as scum/SK. Scum JOAT and BB however know they are denying town roles, so I suggest those two get role copped. As for traitor, it's confirmed in the Top 8, so Parity doesn't really want to be up there. Again Role Cop has even more use finding someone up there (Wow that role cop sure is a useful guy) Also, if no one brings up better candidates, I'd like to suggest people to protect based on roles and LSB's list and whether or not they followed it. deconduo Kenpachi kitaman27 Barundar bumatlarge Eiii zeks aidnai And then from based on what they have been posting, I'd highly suggest ME!.... Or whoever we agree not to hit with CPR  I actually agree with the Jackal part. Jackal could have taken CC, claimed that he didn't, cause confusion in the town. No one could tell if he was lying, and he makes the top 4, which are the ones who should have power roles, targets to be scrutinized. He would gain the power of said top 4 roles, and benefit the mafia greatly. Also, 1st he says that he didn't get his role too late. And he can't make the excuse that he wasn't on until then cause he wrote a post in between LSBs post and his green claim. + Show Spoiler + On January 10 2011 13:30 LSB wrote: If you were assigned a red role and did no recieve it. Please Claim In addition, if you picked traitor and did not recieve it, please claim. Post in between On January 11 2011 06:13 Jackal58 wrote: I don't think we're going to find out anytime soon unless we lynch him. On January 11 2011 19:21 Jackal58 wrote: 1 of the 4 above me is the copy cat. I'm just green. | ||
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
On January 12 2011 15:56 Fishball wrote: Oh fuck, just as I hit post, a wild Misder appeared. Aren't you supposed to be asleep? lol. | ||
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