EPTI'm working on a largish analysis, but I don't want to post it till I'm done, so i'll just watch for a little longer.
Also, just as an aside, I think that it would be profitable for people to review some day 1 posting. Good stuff there.
BC and RoL: Salem Mafia
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
I'm working on a largish analysis, but I don't want to post it till I'm done, so i'll just watch for a little longer. Also, just as an aside, I think that it would be profitable for people to review some day 1 posting. Good stuff there. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
I’ve actually been reading this mafia thread since Day 1, and have already read more or less, everything posted. From an outsider’s standpoint, there are some things that stick out to me. (This is likely in large part because I’ve not been involved in any PM circles.) The most important of these is Doc H’s leadership in the town circle. I believe that someone should be better checked before given so much information, so I went back and pulled up some of his posts from earlier. Consider this a make-up post for all the posting that George didn't do. DoctorHelvetica On November 26 2010 14:06 DoctorHelvetica wrote: 90% of shit in mafia is WIFOM, it's compltely necessary to analyze posting behavior I love this post, it’s totally pro-town, and very true. Games are won and lost by good post analysis. This is such good advise, I can’t see how everyone has missed that he hasn’t followed it at all. I ctrl+f’d through all his posts, and he never seriously analyzes anyone’s posts. (Please point out what DocH has done if I’ve missed it.) The closest he comes is to analyze some PM’s he sent, but even then, most of these PM’s have been hidden from us. Analysing PM’s is not a bad idea, but I think that analyzing posts is more important. DocH, If you are going to be a leader in this town, you need to step up to the plate and lead by example. November 27 2010 12:11 On November 27 2010 12:11 DoctorHelvetica wrote: i'm not asking anybody to roleclaim to me… …Don't roleclaim to me, I think the best way is for the DT to clear a path like Artanis is suggesting. Which, by the way, was my suggestion in the first place. I’d just like to point out how your feelings have changed. For better or for worse, you seem to have convinced people that it’s OK. Yes, the circumstances have changed, but I find these types of contradictions suspicious. You, as a leader, need to not be suspicious. On November 27 2010 12:15 DoctorHelvetica wrote: The mafia can "fake" medic perfectly by sacrificing one KP per night which is a winning situation for town as long as we restrict the flow of roleclaims/information to one person who was confirmed by a DT. I agree, as long as the person is verified innocent. Have you been role-checked by a DT? More contradictions if not… On November 28 2010 13:06 DoctorHelvetica wrote: Yeah, I would be a great choice for elder if I was mafia. that is true. Of course we should not operate under the assumption I am town. You say that we shouldn’t operate under the assumption that you are town? Sound’s like a safe and reasonable strategy. But now you are encouraging people to assume that you are town. On November 28 2010 17:37 DoctorHelvetica wrote: For DTA, he responded poorly to pressure basically. I'll be ready to reveal the information after the night is over. You never actually let this information out. I’d like to see it. On December 01 2010 03:01 DoctorHelvetica wrote: Pick the person below you. Or above you if they are dead. Analyse their posts. You can find all of a persons posts in their profile and it'll sort it by thread. Read all of their posts and try to get a rough idea of their GOALS. Logical errors, mind changing, things like that are often scummy but townies are more likely to make that sort of mistake IMO. Remember, look at it from a town perspective versus mafia. Ask yourself "what is a player trying to accomplish with this post or with this PM. What does he gain and who does it benefit most?" Another brilliant idea! Yet I never saw you analyse Amber[light] or DTA. If you did analyse DTA, you seem to have made a mistake. Please, You’ve got great ideas, but you never seem to follow through with them yourself. Suspicious. Something that was mentioned in the very beginning of the game, and I believe is very true is that the object of the game is to find mafia, and kill them. Not to find Blues and huddle around them. Yes, finding blues is good and beneficial, but we need to look for red also, at the very least. DocH’s posts have almost exclusively focused on forming a town circle. I’m new and obviously not in the circle, so maybe it’s doing a heap of good. The problem still remains, DocH is not contributing on the forum. He is calling for town circle, and he is calling for role claims on Day 2, which strikes me as dangerous. It’s almost like he’s become frantic for roleclaims. Again, it’s possible that this last medic claim would really win the game, but it seems like a pretty huge gamble this early, since only one person has been reportedly verified. Ver’s analysis of Mafia XXX points out that mafia, and people with roles generally don’t post tons, but hang back and contribute small amounts without sticking their heads out. Townies are the ones who go crazy, say what they want with confidence, and stick their neck out, to point out something. DocH fits neither of those categories imo. He has posted a lot, but never stuck his neck out. Towards the beginning it was great Pro-Town advice. Lately it’s become more and more cryptic, and unhelpful, almost to the point of spam. His pro-town status has been diminishing in my eyes. All of that lead me to believe that he was the GF, and was playing us all brilliantly by getting the identity of all the blues. Ok. Now that I’ve dropped that bomb of an opinion, let me explain what my thoughts recently have been. I’ve looked at DocH’s recent posts, specifically his defense of a few certain players. Many of those players I strongly believed were Blue, so this wouldn’t make sense. He seems to be defending a lot of people. This could be just an elaborate mafia attempt to keep public opinion scattered so that the mafia can sway the vote, but it strikes me as more of a townie thing to do. In general his more recent posts are fairly town oriented imo. In any case, if he has as much information as he claims, the town is screwed if he’s mafia, or if there’s misguided trust of a red within the circle. IF….IF he has all that info, then there’s not a lot town can do imo. So I’m willing to assume that he isn’t red for now, because it’s the only possibility in which the town wins. Shame it got to this point tho… So while I am no longer of the opinion that DocH is absolutely the GF, I think that he still needs to step up his game and start working on things other than the town circle, and role-claiming. In general, I think that there is far too much discussion of who is blue, and the town circle, and far too little analysis of posts and scum hunting. If DocH is the leader of the town, he needs to work on this too, at least to some extent. One last question, On December 01 2010 12:02 DoctorHelvetica wrote: The fact that town is in such a position as it is speaks volumes for how bad an dinexperienced the mafia is. Is 3 townies, and 2 blues a good trade for 1 red, and one Chaos Ensuant? People are also complaining about the lack of information to go on since Ken’s non-lynch. (I personally disagree with this, but I can’t be the only one posting analysis.) It seems a bit of a Mafia sided game atm to me, but maybe that’s my inexperience showing… GL town. God help us all if DocH is mafia. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
One thing that we need to keep in mind, is how the mafia found both medics. I think that this comes second to good analysis, but I think that it's still something that we should work on, if possible. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
On December 02 2010 14:45 chaoser wrote: Clearly there was a leak in your circle DocH How is this clear? Kenpachi publicly announced his role, Coag's claim was not kept within the circle, and was apparent to others before this happened. Amber was on my list of Blues, and could have easily have been an attempted blue snip. It's possible for the mafia to have chosen this without an informant. It _is_ suspicious, but I don't think that a leak is the only possibility. If there was a leak, how would the town recover? Can we even consider that option now? | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
On December 02 2010 17:44 DoctorHelvetica wrote: it would not have been difficult for the mafia to snipe coagulation as he was as somebody put "my butt-buddy" and a few other people knew and guessed that he was the medic. Just to point this out, the knowledge of Coag being medic likely means that someone with experiance, who knows Coag's play style is mafia. This would mean that we can't assume that the mafia is bad at what they do. Given that the mafia has at least some experiance, they will likely try as hard as possible to look good. Townies are the ones who wouldn't care about looking scummy, and quite honestly, the ones that are obviously scummy are least suspect to me. It's the ones who look good, but when looked at very, very closely don't add relevent useful information. Radfield is a perfect example. He gave good solid advise the first day. He even got me to read VER's analysis of Mafia XXX (Though, to be honest, I haven't finished it.). This got me to believe that he was very much blue. But then, I was more of a noob then, than now. Looking over his posts agian, he never followed his advice on the post analysis, and cited a lack of informaiton day 1. I call BS. The only thing you can do Day 1 is Post analysis to get information. (Sure, form a circle, but that doesn't give information till at least day 2) There wasn't a lack. When I sent that PM, I was honestly of the opinion that he was Blue, and DrH was GF. I was looking for someone to preview my analysis of DrH before I posted it, and turned to Rad. I was hoping that Rad was NOT in DrH's PM circle, so that I could trust him to keep it away from DrH till I posted it. The way DrH and Radfield have responded to the presure of analysis has made me change my mind as to who is who. Since I called DrH out for not analyzing, DrH has posted good, deep analysises of other players. He didn't even bother to respond and defend himslef and his actions with words, he acted right away. Radfield has only really spent his time defending himself, and has continued to post anything of benefit to the town. If he wants to come up and post some useful analysis of a player, I may change my mind about him. Vote Radfield. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
Radfield has only really spent his time defending himself, and has continued to not post anything of benefit to the town. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
On December 03 2010 05:53 SouthRawrea wrote: I was supportive of lynching inactives during the very beginning of this game but as I have realized, "inactive" describes half of the town. At this point we've had quite a few replacements as well which results in a very slim amount of people actually having a decent-sized post count (without even considering benefical posts) barring spam. While inactive may be unhelpful to town, I suspect that there are about 3 mafia hiding within the inactive pool while the others are either defending themselves right now or sheeping along. Ideally we want to find the active mafia, get the town involved in discussion thereby reducing the number of inactives and providing material for analysis, and rinse and repeat until victory. While I'm not saying that your judgement is incorrect, I'd rather search for mafia-esque behaviour rather than lack of town behaviour now. My apologies for using "inactive player" and "player who fails to contribute anything useful" interchangeably. Just to be clear, I wasn't calling Radfield mafia for being inactive, but for making convincingly pro-town posts which upon deeper analysis doesn't really help the town. In addition, he didn't follow any of the good advise he gave. (i.e. analysis of posts.) In general I think that we need to be aware of a players ability. History is very, very useful I am finding. If the player is advanced, he will probably be able to fake not-scum well enough to fool anyone who has not been playing for a long time. I submit my self. Radfield certainly had me for a while. Others may not be so skilled, and have a harder time looking good while doing nothing. I'd guess that most mafia like this would try to hid among the lurkers. Put these two together, and you end up with very few mafia looking scummy up front. So let's try to look harder, look at previous games if you are suspicious of someone, see what they were like in that game. I'd love to do this for every player here, but I don't have that kind of time, and I doubt that anyone else does either, but try to get the background of a player that you think is mafia. See if it fits. I'm new so I'm at a disadvantage here, but I've found that often times and analysis of an entire game is done by an experienced player, and they will often tell you the history of the players in that game. It's a lot easier to find out this way than looking at all the posts, and I'd suspect it's more accurate. DrH has told us what radfield's play style is, and based his analysis off it. Obviously he's biased cause he's in this game, but I'll try to do my part and get the history of Radfield and JimboSilvers. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
On December 03 2010 09:26 JimboSilvers wrote: Yup. I'm apparently so obvious that you don't even have to bother with responding to my defense. Nice avoidance tactics there. Anyway, a bunch of people are running around supporting the terrible argument that "oh noes if DH is mafia we doomed anyway so we might as well keep trusting him!" You've been sheeped by him the whole game. And you continue to want to sheep him. Way to go. Either way, the logic for this argument is atrocious. Nobody has given any good reasons for us to go flock to DH. They're all based on an idea that just isnt true. Assuming this game is balanced most of the other normal games I've read, we're now at 15 town to 5 mafia. Which is not unwinnable at all. And looking at the dead blues, there are probably no more blues left besides South's "DT", and maybe a veteran or two. Town doesn't really benefit from knowing who the veterans are, only the DTs. And there's probably only one left. Given that this "DT" is already in DH's inner circle, the reasons for "keeping DH because we're doomed anyway" is bad. DH said he shared everything with his circle. This means that DH isn't really crucial to the town's information library. There are 3-4? other people who share this information. DH as town is no more important than anyone else in the circle. He is not as crucial as he wants you to think. This idea that we need to trust DH is blatantly false. Nobody has told us why the game is already lost if DH is mafia. I've just shown how eliminating DH won't destroy all of our information and how there are likely few blue roles that would benefit from DH. Using "he knows everything" as an excuse to keep him alive is terrible. If we're going to win this game, we need to kill the elder. And as stated before by many people, if DH is mafia, hes the elder. We need to kill him right now to lower mafia KP. DH's play this game has been fantastic. He has used propaganda to make himself appear "critical" to the town's survival. Futhermore, he's been constantly saying that "since he already has so many blue roles, the rest might as well claim to him" along with "if I'm mafia you're all screwed". The fact is that there is no real reason why town is screwed if DH knows the blue roles. Is it a major blow to the town? Yes. Can town overcome infiltration of the blue circle? Yes, but its difficult. Don't dismiss the idea that he's mafia just because he knows things. Vote based on who is mafia, don't excuse someone just because they appear valuable. DH wants you to think he's valuable. This is a pretty blatant fraud. Even his circle seems to believe him. But in the event that you prefer to follow someone who has been completely shady since the beginning of the game and want to lynch me, then go ahead. Town doesn't deserve a win if you keep sheeping and using bad logic. This DH situation is not logical. Think it over hard if you really care about this game. While I have agreed to this reasoning that "if DrH is mafia, yadda yadda blah, " It's not the reason that I no longer think he's scum. I'm not saying that he's town because he HAS to be town for us to win. Again, I agree with that reasoning, but it's not the reason I think he is town. I think he is town because of the way that he reacted to pressure from me and others, regarding his lack of contribution on the front of analysis of posts. He responded with the best defense I've seen this whole game: a ton of in-depth, low-fluff analysis. I'd like to see more players analysed by him and others, but we can't have tons of players all up on the chopping block, or we give the mafia too much power to subtly change the vote. This is why we should focus on two or three players, analyse the shit out of them, decide which looks the most mafia, and go with the strongest lynch. My humble opinion. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
On December 03 2010 11:20 JimboSilvers wrote: I think you misinterpreted my post. That is the exact reasoning I'm trying to counter. DH does NOT have to be town for us to win. Even if he's mafia, we can still win if we lynch him And we'd have to because he would be elder. The critical question here is whether or not DH is mafia. If he is mafia, we MUST lynch him. What I'm trying to counter is the flawed idea that he has to be town for us to win. Why is DH mafia? He had a scummy beginning. His "fishing" is not pro-town at all. He has been using other peoples (joking) reactions to argue weak cases. Things like a "special townie" claim doesn't mean anything when you yourself are lying in PMs. DH has also been trying to form a town circle from day 1. While he claims he initially didn't ask people to claim to him, halfway into the day he is already asking for roleclaims "from those who trust him" and uses the reasoning that he already has a bunch of blues in order to justify getting the rest of the roleclaims. He keeps wanting roleclaims even though he isn't confirmed in any way. DH has been driving town in circles and controlled the Day 2 lynch behind our backs. He has been claiming all sorts of information such as "If medic claims to me 2 mafia die" without any justification. He hasn't been reasonable when we ask for information to make a decision even though he demands that we give our inputs. Most importantly, like I've already stated, DH wants to make us think he is important. The facts are that even if DH is mafia, we can still win. But DH is wanting us to think that we're doomed anyway if he is mafia, so we might as well not kill him. This is a myth. DH coming up with magic analysis on day 3 doesn't sway me. Especially after the Night 2 kills. Which btw he's just tried to shrug off as normal. But I highly doubt that the mafia assumed that both medics would be unprotected. DH is in panic mode now. Firstly, I have already posted my reasons for DrH not being mafia. They have nothing to do with "He has to be town for us to win", and I hold to these reasons. Secondly, If DrH is mafia, let's look at just how screwed the town is. Mafia knows everything in the town circle: most, if not all the town's KP roles. Chances are he's directed/influenced the mad hatters bomb placement. If they kill the MH now, they will likely get three townie kills for one. DrH's was heavily involved in the lynches, he has been heavily involved in the topics discussed, and he has been heavily involved in almost every other aspect of the game thus far. Everything is somewhat tainted by his involvement. To some extent all the information in the game cannot be completely trusted, thus we cannot get the excellent analyses that the town needs to win. In short, yes. Town is screwed if DrH is mafia. Either way he has not been playing like mafia recently, and in light of his recent actions, his earlier actions don't seem all that scummy either. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
On December 03 2010 13:00 DoctorHelvetica wrote: jimbosilvers has post like scum and now he defends like scum we lynch him like scum I think that we should try a little harder to hit the GF. We have two pretty solid lynch targets: Rad and Jimbo. We might be able to add youngminii to that. Whatever. I think we should lynch someone we also think is likely the GF, and I personally don't think Jimbo is GF. Maybe the vig can hit the other, so it doesn't matter. But it'd be better I think to at least consider which of our suspects is more likely to be GF. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
If you want to defend yourself, don’t spam the thread with a defence of yourself that will doubtlessly be refuted by someone, ACT. Start posting things that will help the town, and stop cluttering up the board. I’d drop it for now. DrH doesn’t get all the votes for the town, the attacks and defences are publicly posted, let the town decide. In general, if you want to defend yourself, I think that it is infinitely better to post NEW things that are unarguably pro-town, not spam the board with arguments. It's a win-win for town. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
Role counts are hidden fyi You are less suspicious because of a dead CE, but not removed entirely. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
On December 04 2010 03:42 DoctorHelvetica wrote: you did the same thing in insane mafia... So...Was he town? Care to share any useful information on his play style in Insane mafia? | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
As for the lynch, I want to find out what radfield is, but I accept the fact that youngminii and JS are better lynch targets atm. Anyone else have thoughts on this? | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
Poll: Would you be willing to Lynch YM today? Yes (9) No (1) 10 total votes Your vote: Would you be willing to Lynch YM today? I think that the case against JS is stronger, and I think that the town can agree enough to lynch him. I think that YM is more likely the GF, and I want to know if the town would be willing to lynch him today, instead. I don't want to try to switch this over unless the town can decide to do it, because we do NOT want to be completely split between the two. To be clear, I'm voting JS. If this poll shows a willingness to lynch YM, then I'd like to switch the vote. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
As much as I would like to vote JS, we can't risk splitting on this. And yes, I know that the poll isn't very secure, but I made it with the assumption that more people would actually give an opinion if it was anonamous, and that people who shouldn't be voting in this thread wouldn't. I was looking for a general feeling from everyone. But I think that I tried this a bit too late. We risk a split this late in the day. So I'm sticking with JS. | ||
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
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Kavdragon
United States1251 Posts
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