EPTE: Nevermind, think I'll read a few more game before getting involved myself.
TL Mafia XXXI
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E: Nevermind, think I'll read a few more game before getting involved myself. | ||
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On September 20 2010 10:30 Divinek wrote: 19.Crisis_ 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. ....wat? looooooool. i think it may have been the 25/25 remaining thing that confused the poor guy though Yeah that got me pretty bad. If there's still though then count me in  | ||
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I don't really understand the point of voting inactives off? I'm new at this game, but surely that just makes it really easy for the mafia to avoid getting voted off for the first few rounds. Unless they're just really lazy... | ||
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On October 06 2010 06:05 kingjames01 wrote: No, that's totally valid. However, I'm trying to play the game as best as I can with the little bit of information that has been revealed. Until I have more information, I think I will go with what I've got. Even if I'm wrong with what I'm saying, it invites a response so that we can learn more about what players are thinking, just like how it incited you to respond. What I DO find interesting, however, is that you have only posted once previous to this message. Then, with this post you claim that you apparently don't like it when people try a "little too hard ... to already single out a target and to shift blame elsewhere [and are] skeptical of people who post a lot of accusative posts as opposed to just general conversation." You came out of hiding just to point fingers and divert attention. Are you taking this game seriously enough to find a good reason to survive and win? If you are, then seriously consider what I have to say. If you can find a glaring logical error then say so. Don't insinuate with your slimy words just before the first vote and then disappear. This just furthers my point about you. You act as if my post was all part of your multiple phase plan, before completely changing the subject to you accusing me of lying in wait and singling you out with my 'slimy words'. Once again another clear shift of blame from yourself towards me and another accusative post. | ||
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I guess I'll give a little insight into what I'm thinking: NuketheBunnys: This guy kinda seems a little clueless of the big picture, I'm not so sure on his analysis and his comments, he seems to focus on inactives. However, I think it's pretty fair to say he's town. The style of his writing and the way he comes off is very hard to fake imo, so I'd be fairly sure he's town. Say 85% BM: Asshole. Would be a definite target for tomorrow, however I'm unsure about him today. DocH + Pandain: I'm almost positive you two are either Blue or Red. There's something not quite right about both of you, but I can't put my finger on it. ATM I'm more inclined to agree that you're Blue, however I'm a little skeptical at your strong support of a double lynch. That said, I have no real reason to suspect your red - just a gut feeling you know? BM: asshole. That said, I feel you're pretty harmless. You clearly have this whole "TL Mafia" persona, from looking at your other posts outside of mafia. I feel that although he looks harmless, he needs to die. I hope he gets vigi'd but he would definitely be a target for me tomorrow. Xelin and Crisis_: These guys are shady. But I really no connection between the two of them - I have a feeling one of them is red and the other is green, however I can't put my finger on it. KingJames: Really got no read on you - you were really aggressive on day 1, but since then you've basically posted 0 content. This might be because you don't want to stick out - meaning you could either be taking orders from someone else, or you don't want to become a target. Really unsure about you. Other people really haven't been on my radar. These aren't meant to be taken as accusations, more just what's running through my head if you feel me. | ||
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Firstly, some assumptions. The mafia has 5 votes. I think it's fair to say that they clearly do not vote in one big block. However I think it's also fair to say that they don't vote for 5 different guys completely randomly. My guess would be that the mafia may be split into 2 or 3 groups - where each day 2 people will vote for the guy they want to hit to make sure he dies, and the others will vote relatively randomly to prevent any sort of pattern emerging. This could be true because the mafia will never stay in one group, because if one gets caught then it makes it much easier to find the rest. This is all theory - no factual evidence to support this, but I think it could possibly make sense. Therefore, to identify some clue of who the mafia is we need to look at someone who votes for the person killed, and then votes for someone on pretty weak evidence. However this is far too general, and cannot be conclusive. However the vote for the double lynch just passed yesterday gaining exactly the 12 votes needed. Now there were 20 voters yesterday - I will not include myself because I'm confident in my not being red. If we look at around two hours before the vote there are three votes for double lynch that come in the space of 15 mins. Now there is nothing overly suspicious of this, except that all three of these people had voted before with who they wanted to lynch and then as it seemed the double would not pass they support it. These are: LSB Sinquity Crisis_ Now just for fun I'll do a little probing into each of them. I'm unsure about LSB - he didn't make a vote first day so it's hard to analyze what the rationale behind his vote was. Sinquity is a little more fishy potentially. On day 1 he voted for protactinum, who was later lynched. He does not post an actual reason for protactinium, unless I can't find it. Also, on day 1 the person who attacked him the most was Panda, a very good townie. Panda was later bumped off the next day. However next day he votes for meeple, and is the only one too, seemingly without any reason. Then a full day later he posts his rather short explanation On October 10 2010 14:18 SiNiquity wrote: This is what I found on Meeple while sifting through the thread last night. In short, he's been moderately active but hasn't really said a whole lot. Ultimately gets boiled down into the following 4 categories:
Annd that's it. All of his posts. Could be blue skating by, could just have a lot of shit going on. I'd like to hear more. I'm also suspicious of the fact that CynanMachae is still alive, primarily because it sounded like he soft-claimed blue, Pandain even called him out on it, and he never really refuted it. Surely the Mafia didn't miss this ~ yet they haven't hit a blue yet. It could be they're not blue hunting and are instead simply targeting more experienced players (Bum, Infund, Pandain + whoever they poisoned). He also hasn't been terribly active (got put off by BM spamming which is understandable). Annnd now no one's been poisoned. :o This really is not convincing reasoning to me. It seems half hearted, and furthermore he does not follow up with this after he votes. He has not mentioned Meeple at all since this post if I searched correctly. The timing of his vote for Meeple is also peculiar. He votes at 11:45, when it is almost certain that Misder is going to be lynched. At his time of voting he still hasn't provided justification for Meeple, I believe. This to me almost seems like he just picked a random then attempted to justify it later. Why? I believe he was waiting to make sure misder got lynched. Once it was clear he cast a vote that would draw attention away from himself. Furthermore he votes for the double lynch late in the evening, at 10:22, under the pretext that Xellin told him that there were unlimited doubles. This is dubious. If you were curious, you would look on the front page, where it clearly states there are 2 remaining. Unless of course he's looking for an excuse to pull back on his vote at a later date. Once again why? At his time of voting there was a lot of voting activity in general. It was not absurd to see someone withdrawing from the double. However his vote gave the double a 1 vote security against this. It would be more revealing if every time someone pulled out, one person immediately took his place to make an exact 12. He himself then pulls out because he sees Xelin "lied to him". This draws attention away from him and to Xelin, when it was a simple problem to begin with, and it supplies him with a fair motive to change his vote. Although I'm unsure why he pulled out. This is what puzzles me. One possible motive is that he wants to give a conservative front and act as if he wants as little death as possible, contrary to the mafia. I'm unsure, but I have to say the statistics are little curious. Crisis_: He follows the same pattern of voting for the person who gets lynched, and then voting seemingly randomly. He votes for protactinium, and then he is the ONLY person to vote for BillMurray. He once again posts his vote before giving a reason. His explanation is also not very convincing: On October 09 2010 09:40 Crisis_ wrote: My suspect list: I think the top suspects are those that receive accusation, and only surface when they're being threatened. CynanMachine Has been making mostly defensive posts with flawed arguments (sometimes even just brushing them off like they're not legitimate), some such as: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=151150¤tpage=43#845 ghrur http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=151150¤tpage=38#741 Talks a lot about how a red would play. People will relate others based on the role they actually are. They will think in that mindset. Bill Murray Ugh... a lot of spam, and an iffy plan...? I doubt there's more than one VI, and it seems like BM does this a lot in every mafia game he plays, so it's "normal" play for him. I'd just be okay with lynching him to get rid of the spam, but I know that's not really the best choice. I think he's more town than mafia. He posts this after his vote. This is not an explanation of any detail. He later claims he will change his vote, but of course he does not. However, he does participate in the voting thread again. This clearly means that he hasn't forgotten, but has no intentions of switching his vote. At 8:49 at the end of Day 2 he makes this post On October 09 2010 09:49 Crisis_ wrote: Okay, I'll consider it. Can you clarify this for me, though? Will the double lynch occur tonight or tomorrow if it passes? From this we know that he is aware Panda is online, and Panda replies to his question 3 minutes later, yet it takes Crisis a full 1 and a half to change his post, and he provides 0 reasoning for it. This makes it seem as if he is asking someone else about the double lynch. His vote change is at the same time as Sinquinity's. To me it appears that he was waited for Sinquinity to reply to his question about the double lynch, and getting the go ahead from siniquity, he changes his vote. From the time of their posts we can tell that they were online at the same time. Sin had not posted for awhile, while we know that Crisis had been online for a long time. There is very little reason I can see for the delay in Crisis changing his vote, unless he was waiting for something, like Sin answering his question. This may also explain Sin's post including Xellin. A potential scenario: Sin replies to Crisis to vote for the double. Sin then sees it might not past and wants to vote for it to create a bandwagon effect, or just for some insurance. However he sees the proximity of their posts and sees this could be a link between them. He puts in the bit about Xellin as a cover story. The above is merely theory, and of course cannot be proven. However, I felt like it was an interesting idea, and wanted to share it. That said I'm suspicious of crisis and siniquity until they can prove otherwise. | ||
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