EPTGodfather Mafia
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First off is this little tidbit from the rules post: Starting Mafia KP: 1. Starting means that number isn't going to stay at 1. If we fuck up our first few lynches and vig hits, we're going to hit a wall where mafia KP is just going to be too high to recover from. Between the recruitment, mafia kills and daily lynch, mafia have the ability to drop 3+ town votes per day. Assuming they play perfectly, mafia kill 2 people per day via lynch and night hit and gain 1 voting power per day. More dangerously, i'd assume that mafia gain a kp, either at 3 or 4 members. If 3 is kp=2, which we'll find out tomorrow, its possible that they move to kp=3 if they have a full 5 members. 5 members, however, would be a situation in which town has missed 4 subsequent lynches. 3 missed lynches is generally a loss condition in F11, so this isn't really that far off. This means that by day 3, there are going to be 16 players alive, 4 of them mafia, 12 town. The day 4, we hit 5/8-9. At this point, unless we have hatters, vig and double lynches available and used properly, we lose unless we kill the godfather. This is assuming that the town kp isn't improperly placed, and that we don't double lynch inaccurately. This means we need to figure out who the GF is by day 4 or we're boned, put simply, or hit goons one after another. Given this, if we have shitty leads on day 3, we might want to consider claims given the information we have, but not before then. Why not before then? Well, its pretty simple: If the Godfather is checked by a DT, do you return "Godfather"? Yes, all DT checks are 100% (minus roleblock). We can't let our DT(s) get recruited or killed early because they're the only non destructive way we have of identifying the GF. Given the shitshow of a last game, I'd like to be able to have our day 1 lynch proceed smoothly. Because of that, I want to know what people think about the following idea; We have one of the two masons claim. Given that we have verrrrry likely have medic(s), they can prot him and keep him alive during the game. If the player is lying, one (not both!) of the real masons can call him out. Given the fact that there are only 2 total mafia members today, it would cost the mafia essentially half their team to contest the mason claim. This is also a reason why claiming immediately would be more helpful than claiming at a later date. The downsides of this? Godfather now has a person he knows not to recruit, and the mason might die once mafia kp gets over 1. If we do that, we have a confirmed townie who can essentially drive our vote; if he's wrong, cool beans, it happens. If he's right; awesome. Either way, it'll prevent exploitable intra-town conflicts. | ||
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Masons can both claim, but we probably only have enough jail action to keep one alive, and we can't co-ordinate protection without jailer claims and frankly that's a non-starter. Given that, it really doesn't make sense not to have a single confirmed townie confirm himself. If we do it at a later date, say around day 4, mafia might simply gambit and have 2 members counterclaim to control, say, a double lynch, which might end the game on us. Having a mason claim isn't a game ender because we can't PM him role information, but it does give us one person as a base for analysis. Like I said, the tradeoff is halfing the chance that the GF tries to mason recruit, but that's a paltry 10% anyways. | ||
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On July 01 2010 14:20 Korynne wrote: Um, I don't see why both masons should claim. Even if we had two jailkeepers that's one less jailkeeper to protect other people. So I think what's on the table for debate right now is whether we should have a mason roleclaim or not, and only one. Also L, you're still ignoring my roleblocker plan. -.- I'm lookin' at it :3. I see some pretty large problems with it, specifically that mafia KP is 1, which means that a no-hit night is a fantastic way to frame someone. Additionally, there's a problem in that the roleblocker needs to somehow get information into the thread about who he's chosen to roleblock unless we use a set rotation and the moment he does he's gonna get stolen. I also don't see how we can run a rotation if the roleblocker himself might be put into the lineup, because that would be a bit off. The only workable alternative is that we have the roleblocker come out into the open and we chain-jail him. We can only really do that on day 1 because if we don't, that would be a very, very good place for mafia to gambit and contest the block. There's also the coroner issue; unless the mafia kp meter is hovering at a breakpoint, killing a mafia won't even be known. Even if we shoot the real roleblocker, the mafia stand in might simply pretend he's blocked someone random and have his team put a no-hit list in. Put simply, we will not know how many mafia members there are, and whether or not a particular kill of ours is effective until blues step up. The moment another group of blues step in, our jailor won't be able to protect them all from recruit/hits. That's kinda the catch this game; unlike a game wherein mafia would be outted by a gambit, here we might have an early coroner kill, then zero certainty regarding roles thereafter. | ||
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On July 01 2010 14:32 youngminii wrote: Well it'd be better to at least role block the better players for the first night, seeing as you can't DT on the first night. I think plan 2+3 would be good, at least for now. Also, if we do end up following these, the mason (one) should claim if they try to get recruited. It'll be a compromise between the three plans. Uh, why would the mason TELL the godfather that he failed? Why wait for a recruitment to claim? | ||
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On July 01 2010 14:35 rastaban wrote: As an example, if we agree to roleblock L, the worse that could happen is that he is DT or Jailer, all the other roles are nearly unaffected. But this means that tomorrow we have a confirmed townie who is innocent and a good player. The second thing it does is force the GF to start recruiting less obvious players since the prominent ones will be detected so quickly. It is worth risking losing 1 DT check (on a 1/20 chance) to gain that knowledge. We don't have to continually do them, but for the first few turns it would be very stong. Ok, now really off to bed  Actually, it means that I'll 99% likely be recruited or killed if i'm roleblocked, because regardless of my role, I won't be jailed, and if i'm a mason, i'll be recruitable during the night. The alternative is that mafia decides to spare a hit tonight because they think i'd be jailed in the future and pull their hit on me to control the day 2 lynch. If that's the case, mafia just need to control the day 3 lynch and they win unless we pull off some wizard shit the next day. If someone wants to get all DT ups ins on me, by contrast, cool. | ||
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On July 01 2010 14:43 Korynne wrote: Hmm, so if we implement the roleblock idea. We always have one confirmed townie for a day, so that townie can fill the role of the mason role that L mentioned. So we don't have to out a mason. Thoughts on this replacement? We don't get a confirmed townie for a day. We most likely get someone who's recruited at the end of the night. Actually should probably ask how that works. Darth, if someone is both recruited and roleblocked during the same night, what order do the actions take place in? | ||
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##vote double lynch BM, wut is this. I expect answers tomorrow mornin'. G'night. | ||
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Since it hasn't been discussed extensively, I would like to talk a bit about the coroner role. I would not be surprised if we have at least two of these. For this reason I don't think that any town voting type activation is appropriate. That being said, of course people are going to say 'oh this would be a good time for a coroner'. Use your own judgment. I HIGHLY disagree. We cannot mislynch day 3. Unless we lynch correctly tonight or tomorrow, we need to pop a coroner on night 2, night 3 at the latest. This ability should be used to help generate new momentum in the town. If we have good leads already, this power would generate additional information that we might not be able to act on. Instead use it when we're in a situation that is more stale. The longer this power is held on to, the more powerful it becomes. I definitely would not use it before night 3 under any circumstance. Probably not until at least night 4. Also, just because a DT fingered a godfather and we lynch does not mean that this power needs to be immediately used. Sure, it'd be satisfying to know for sure, but game play only changes somewhat because of it. If we already have a good lead on other scum, it may be more valuable to hold out an additional day. If you were to wait another day and it turns out that it wasn't a godfather, we're still going to lynch the lying DT. Blues that die prior to day 3 should claim if they are an investigative role using the name/eman format. We'll have coroner information to check what role you are. I think that we should either be lynching a) inactive b)someone likely to be GF c) someone very very likely to be mafia. Korynne. This post alone of your has done more than the entire BM/You conversation to make me think you aren't town, but given the numbers I'm still pretty sure you're on our team. Useful content instead!I'd vote for you to get roleblocked for tonight, but like I said roleblocking someone who's top flight essentially gives mafia a worry free recruitment or kill. Since I like your posts most of the time, I'd rather you have a potential jailin'. Out of all the players who I think might have been picked as a target, Hesmyrr's been a bit too quiet. I like him, but I have a feeling he'll rage against being recruited and make it plenty obvious he's switched sides if that happens. Just sayin'. It happens. As for the masons plan; if we're going to do it, now's the time. We've already had 1 shitfit go down between two players that I'm pretty sure are town. I'd rather not have that amplified into day 2 and give a growing scum team a few easy lynch controls in the process. | ||
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On July 02 2010 09:45 Bill Murray wrote: Also, brownbear, thanks for noticing i'm not scum. Really hard one there. You say that, yet people failed to realize the same last game. Just sayin' bro, most people are bads. | ||
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On July 02 2010 10:03 Bill Murray wrote: it's true. i'm not sayin' i'm good either, but at least i know how to read and be active. like earlier hesmyrr is trying to say i need to provide reasons for voting double lynch when i provided 3 if i was mafia, i wouldn't want to risk being an idiot, and i wouldn't want to act scummy. i would stick to 1 liners a lot more, and i sure as hell wouldn't vote double lynch. i figured that 10% chance of lynching the godfather is better than a 5%. 1/10 of essentially locking up a win day 2? not terrible odds. I figured it might be in line with a random lynch > a no lynch on day 1. Since all the policy and math people are disagreeing with me, I suppose I'm wrong on this. My 3rd reason I can't really remember, but I know I had one. I think it was something like "it'd be better to use them now than to not use them at all and perish as a town without having ever used them". Sort of like your qualms on mislynching multiple times. then I get brownbear claiming i'm spamming and worthless now, when i have been scumhunting more than anyone. While we do indeed benefit by killing the GF early, we only have 2 double lynches. I'd much prefer having one ready later on to drop mafia kp or clean out 2 mafia when our DT and coroner information comes in. | ||
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Ah jesus. | ||
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Well, this is straight up fucked up now. | ||
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On July 02 2010 13:41 Korynne wrote: What if zeks says that, and then we're all like omg what if he's jail keeper? And then he goes on and says he's mason to make himself safe. If the real masons saw that, maybe the real masons both disagrees with L's plan and think that zeks could be jail keeper or some important role we don't want to kill? Just a possibility to throw out there. Also, we can confirm that people can PM each other by asking one of them to post an encrypted message in the thread, and then later on if we need to confirm the other guy (ex. if the first guy dies and the second guy is about to be lynched) we can have him give us the key to the message and the message will decrypt to say like, [...] is my mason partner or something like that. So if zeks dies, and then two people try to claim to be his mason partner, we can use that to verify it? We can just use his post death post to do that. Anyways, sleep time for me. As a parting topic; the roleblocker 'plan' isn't dead either. There are a few variations I can think of using ordered, random or voted groups to create roleblock patterns. I haven't thought everything through regarding those, but we have the night to talk about it too, so no huge rush. G'night bromigos. | ||
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