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Newbie Mini Mafia XLIII - Page 92

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
July 02 2013 19:55 GMT
#1821
FFS, how are we supposed to work with this?

I am actually starting to think that I have got this all very wrong and that both the lurkers are scum. How on earth am I going to prove them town?
StiMaDDict
Profile Joined May 2013
Korea (South)313 Posts
July 02 2013 20:17 GMT
#1822
hzflank, you said you wanted to be in my head. Well, here's my thoughts:
The reason I voted for Onegu day 2 comes down to this.

At the time, everyone were too caught up in either-or. Either Alakaslam was lying or Onegu was lying.
After reading Alakaslam's post, I didn't think he was lying at all, but then I questioned why would Onegu have claimed? It is way too risky to fake-claim in case he get busted. So I began thinking, "what if they are both telling the truth?" Maybe I missed it but if I remember correctly, Onegu never claimed Watcher. He only claimed that he knew Hurricane visited Alakslam. He could have Watched Alakaslam OR he could have tracked Hurricane. If we assume that Onegu is a Tracker rather than a Watcher, it all makes sense. From Onegu's point of view, what he claimed IS truth, he just let others assume how he knows the truth. + Show Spoiler +
Well played, Onegu.
I hope you are following my train of thought. From this point on, the fact that it is unlikely there are 2 trackers and that Onegu didn't correct other people that he is a Tracker rather than a Watcher led me to vote Onegu Day 2.

I really don't want to do this but here are some of my posts from Day 2.
+ Show Spoiler +
On June 29 2013 10:13 StiMaDDict wrote:
hzflank, could you help me a bit here?
Did Onegu actually claimed Watcher? It could've been that he tracked Hurricane to Alak.

+ Show Spoiler +
On June 29 2013 10:25 StiMaDDict wrote:
What's bothering me at this point is that this "Alakaslam enthusiastically tandem-claimed Tracker (with no public intent of countering Onegu's claim)" doesn't look like it was intentional. So what I'm was thinking is that Onegu is scum tracker and he tracked Hurricane. He knows Hurricane visited Alakaslam. So he pretends to the town watcher by telling what he knows. Lastly, Hurricane will defend Onegu.

Does that make sense?

+ Show Spoiler +
On June 29 2013 10:26 StiMaDDict wrote:
If what I suggest is true, then what Alak claimed makes sense.

+ Show Spoiler +
On June 29 2013 10:29 StiMaDDict wrote:
I wasn't here at that time so you will have to fill me on it. Obviously, Onegu couldn't have anticipated Alak claiming. I will have to check but was Onegu under vote pressure at that time?

+ Show Spoiler +
On June 29 2013 10:37 StiMaDDict wrote:
Then I don't see why Onegu would claim..
I know you had a scum read on me and if I remember correctly FirmTofu was on Onegu..

+ Show Spoiler +
On June 29 2013 10:43 StiMaDDict wrote:
I'm going to vote Onegu at this point.
If Alakaslam flips red, then I'm probably next on lynch but my gut tells me Onegu playing this.
##Vote: Onegu

Oh btw, Hurrican voted Alakslam, so that means that he DID visit Alakslam + Show Spoiler +
or he is NN.


SOOooooo, that's that. What I have here is pure gut and instinct. Why did Aquanim emphasize Onegu is a Watcher..
On June 29 2013 09:22 Aquanim wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 29 2013 09:18 StiMaDDict wrote:
On June 29 2013 09:13 Aquanim wrote:
Oh, and even if Hurricane doesn't know where he visited, that does not contradict Onegu's claim in any way. In fact, I don't think it affects its likelihood at all. One way or another, Onegu correctly knows where Hurricane visited. (Scum would not have fakeclaimed seeing Hurricane visit somewhere he didn't on the offchance he might be Nosy Neighbour and not know.)

I agree that unless it is necessary to decide the lynch one way or another there is no need for Hurricane to claim.

Explain this to me? I thought Alak claimed Onegu visited Hurricane and that he himself visited Alak. Since we are lynching Alak, I'm assuming that he is most likely telling a lie, therefore it is correct that Onegu visited Alak. How is it that Onegu knows where Hurricane visited? Still trying to catch up. What am I missing?

Onegu has claimed Watcher. He claims to have watched Alakaslam, and to have seen Hurricane visit Alakaslam.


But then this bothers me..
On June 26 2013 02:19 Onegu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 26 2013 02:01 FirmTofu wrote:
Even now, it is still possible that Xzavier lives because we only have 5 votes. We should try convincing hzflank or Alakaslam to switch their votes.

As I suspect the Mafia team is as follows...
Xzavier
SpicyDinosaur
Onegu

They are trying not to make it obvious that they want to keep Xzavier alive. You can see how they are frantically looking for other scapegoats to shift attention off of Xzavier, but don't have much of a case.

Furthermore, my preliminary assessment of Alakaslam speaks to an SK mindset. I will go into further detail when it becomes applicable on Day 2.


To be honest I dont care who is killed if Xzavier flips town my vote will go on aquanim and if he flips scum I will vote Spicydinosaur. My current read on Xzavier is null with scum reads on alakaslam and aqua. With every post Alakaslam makes he looks more and more like noob scum to me.
동해 물과 백두산이 마르고 닳도록 하느님이 보우하사 우리나라 만세. 무궁화 삼천리 화려강산 대한 사람, 대한으로 길이 보전하세.
StiMaDDict
Profile Joined May 2013
Korea (South)313 Posts
July 02 2013 20:19 GMT
#1823
hzflank, do you want to know who I am going to vote now too?
동해 물과 백두산이 마르고 닳도록 하느님이 보우하사 우리나라 만세. 무궁화 삼천리 화려강산 대한 사람, 대한으로 길이 보전하세.
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
July 02 2013 20:32 GMT
#1824
Still reading, but Onegu did absolutely claim watcher.
StiMaDDict
Profile Joined May 2013
Korea (South)313 Posts
July 02 2013 20:34 GMT
#1825
On July 03 2013 05:32 hzflank wrote:
Still reading, but Onegu did absolutely claim watcher.

He did? Then I guess what Aquanim said shouldn't be suspicious.
동해 물과 백두산이 마르고 닳도록 하느님이 보우하사 우리나라 만세. 무궁화 삼천리 화려강산 대한 사람, 대한으로 길이 보전하세.
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
July 02 2013 20:34 GMT
#1826
Also, we all knew that Hurricane was NN who accidentally visited Alakaslam. We had deduced this at the time of the vote.
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
July 02 2013 20:41 GMT
#1827
Yep, I can see where you would be going with that. Unfortunately, your information was incorrect.
StiMaDDict
Profile Joined May 2013
Korea (South)313 Posts
July 02 2013 20:43 GMT
#1828
On July 03 2013 05:34 hzflank wrote:
Also, we all knew that Hurricane was NN who accidentally visited Alakaslam. We had deduced this at the time of the vote.

Then why the fuck did he ask me whether he should claim or not... *making me look stupid and shit *grumble *grumble
동해 물과 백두산이 마르고 닳도록 하느님이 보우하사 우리나라 만세. 무궁화 삼천리 화려강산 대한 사람, 대한으로 길이 보전하세.
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
July 02 2013 20:44 GMT
#1829
@Stim

There are 2 scum. Your options are: hzflank, Aquanim, SpicyDinosaur and LoneMeow. Who are your picks?
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
July 02 2013 20:45 GMT
#1830
On July 03 2013 05:43 StiMaDDict wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 03 2013 05:34 hzflank wrote:
Also, we all knew that Hurricane was NN who accidentally visited Alakaslam. We had deduced this at the time of the vote.

Then why the fuck did he ask me whether he should claim or not... *making me look stupid and shit *grumble *grumble


He wanted to know if you think he should claim. In reality he did not need to as it was possible for us all to work it out by ourselves (all the pieces of the puzzle were there).
StiMaDDict
Profile Joined May 2013
Korea (South)313 Posts
July 02 2013 20:49 GMT
#1831
On July 03 2013 05:44 hzflank wrote:
@Stim

There are 2 scum. Your options are: hzflank, Aquanim, SpicyDinosaur and LoneMeow. Who are your picks?

LoneMeow and SpicyDinosaur.
btw, if Lone flips town, I'm going to super fucking pissed.
동해 물과 백두산이 마르고 닳도록 하느님이 보우하사 우리나라 만세. 무궁화 삼천리 화려강산 대한 사람, 대한으로 길이 보전하세.
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
July 02 2013 20:53 GMT
#1832
Don't worry, if Lone flips town the game ends anyway

Why Spicy?
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
July 02 2013 20:56 GMT
#1833
@Hurricane

I need to sleep soon so I wont be on for the end of the night phase. I assume that you will be night killed. Leave me any opinions that you have if you like.

I think it highly likely that LoneMeow is scum who took the easy way out because he did not want to risk implicating his partner. I have noticed the ties between Lone and Aqua (as you did). I am not 100% convinced on Aqua though, but have not put in the time to fully go over all of the conversation between Aqua and Onegu.
Spicydinosaur
Profile Joined April 2013
United States382 Posts
July 02 2013 21:06 GMT
#1834
On July 03 2013 04:04 hzflank wrote:
More from Onegu...

Saying that Stim is the best lurker to vote for on day 1?

Show nested quote +
On June 24 2013 16:59 Onegu wrote:
On June 24 2013 16:53 FirmTofu wrote:
As I am about to go to bed, I would like to go ahead and

##Vote: fyfy

because he is the only person who hasn't spoken yet. Keep your eye on Stim and Meow as well because they are lurking, especially Stim.


It is better to vote for lurkers who have posted one time and stopped then to vote for someone who hasnt posted anything because they will most likely get replaced or modkilled.


Don't analyse Spicy's meta?

Show nested quote +
On June 25 2013 01:05 Onegu wrote:
It is bad to connect meta on noobs because depending on what worked one game and what didnt work they will change how they play




Trying to move the conversation away from Spicy being scum?

Show nested quote +
On June 25 2013 12:14 Onegu wrote:


Just want to put this out there, if you think spicy is scum fine, but please dont blue hunt, and if you do blue hunt dont post who you think is blue all that does is help scum not town.


Just wanted to comment on these. Not sure why onegu tried to defend my meta when i was clearly referencing it and thus was ok with people looking at it, in fact encouraging.

As for the second quote it looks like he was saying "if you think someone could be a blue, dont say so," not looking like hes moving the convo from me at all.
Spicydinosaur
Profile Joined April 2013
United States382 Posts
July 02 2013 21:07 GMT
#1835
On July 03 2013 05:49 StiMaDDict wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 03 2013 05:44 hzflank wrote:
@Stim

There are 2 scum. Your options are: hzflank, Aquanim, SpicyDinosaur and LoneMeow. Who are your picks?

LoneMeow and SpicyDinosaur.
btw, if Lone flips town, I'm going to super fucking pissed.


Please explain why your read on aqua changed from scum n1 to null n2.
geript
Profile Joined February 2013
10024 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-07-03 01:16:23
July 03 2013 01:15 GMT
#1836
/I'm terrible
Hurricane Sponge
Profile Joined March 2010
868 Posts
July 03 2013 01:40 GMT
#1837
Alright, since I'm going to be killed tonight, I guess I need to spell out my actions. I thought it was pretty clear, but there's no harm in explicitly saying everything.

My two mafia reads are LoneMeow and Spicy. Obviously StiM needs to be vetted thoroughly, but that requires the luxury of time which I do not have. My read based on his reactions and the conclusions he is haphazardly drawing leads me to believe he is town.

Spicy's night 2 - day 3 - night 3 posting has done nothing to change my opinion of him. You'll note that I went hard after Aqua during night 2, and not Spicy. (In fact, I even offered up some bogus logic that Spicy would magically be confirmed Town in my eyes if I survived the Night.) This was done as a tandem effort with FirmTofu. Tofu had established himself as the most likely candidate to put pressure on Spicy, and I would be the public face of pressure on Aqua. Whoever died, it gives the town information. I lived, which helps exonerate Aqua.

I'd recommend for the remaining townie (probably StiM, but there's a slight chance it could be Spicy or LoneMeow) to follow the lead of Aqua and HZ. If the town splits votes, we lose. There will be plenty of time to diagnose sinister Day 4 mafia tactics later. For now, you three are a unit, and it is up to you to either prove me right, or solve this game. Barring StiM really stepping in it later today, I expect to see a LoneMeow or Spicy lynch. I'll leave the decision as to whether you want to lynch the riskier pick so we can get this game over with, or draw it out for more information up to you.
Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
July 03 2013 01:50 GMT
#1838
Nothing much has changed in terms of my reads. Spicy's posted some analysis, but nothing that I think scum couldn't come up with - nothing that's unbelievable from a townie, either, as far as I can see. It's a little suggestive that he thinks I'm more likely to be scum with StiM than Lone - one could easily construe my 'flip' on LoneMeow as a bus of necessity, whereas my and StiM's votes for one another wouldn't even be a bus of convenience.

Spicy's reasons for saying I'm not scum with LoneMeow are reasonable enough, though hardly enough to be as certain as he is IMO. I feel that in the association case with StiM (link) he's trying to twist the facts to make them suit his read, rather than the other way around. StiM had no previous posting history, he could have voted anyone - I don't see any reason for him to vote his scumbuddy and push his wagon again just when it was starting to die.

LoneMeow still hasn't really given us much of anything and StiM, as you say, appears not to be reading the thread thoroughly... which makes it hard to read him.
Hurricane Sponge
Profile Joined March 2010
868 Posts
July 03 2013 01:55 GMT
#1839
Spicy's suspicion of hz comes from a weird place. Nothing about his thought process screams 'Town' to me, and it does smell a lot like scum trying to scumhunt.
Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
July 03 2013 01:57 GMT
#1840
On July 03 2013 10:55 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Spicy's suspicion of hz comes from a weird place. Nothing about his thought process screams 'Town' to me, and it does smell a lot like scum trying to scumhunt.

Spicy suspects hz? Do you mean LoneMeow?
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