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TL Mafia XVIII - Page 86

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L
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Canada4732 Posts
February 18 2010 17:33 GMT
#1701
The clue could also refer to johnnyspazz... for both the spazz reference and his profile containing sonic/dr.robotnik as two enemies.
Oh shit, I didn't even see that gif animate. This is a very good catch.
The number you have dialed is out of porkchops.
Phrujbaz
Profile Blog Joined September 2008
Netherlands512 Posts
February 18 2010 21:00 GMT
#1702
This is a very tough lynch (as also evidenced by the large number of abstains). I think we shouldn't (yet) lynch anyone that has made at least some useful contributions. That means we should not lynch the following people:

Ver
Bill Murray
Mystlord
DoctorHelvetica
nemY

Zona did post a lot of text, but not really much useful. He seems to have a lot of time though, so maybe if we give him a chance, he will turn those walls of gibberish into walls of win. I do not think we should lynch him yet either.

From currently voted for people, that leaves Faronel, Nikoner, and Xelin as acceptable lynch candidates, although I don't really feel enthusiastic about lynching any of them.

Caution! Future approaching rapidly at a rate of about 60 seconds per minute.
XeliN
Profile Joined June 2009
United Kingdom1755 Posts
February 18 2010 21:28 GMT
#1703
btw for clarity on my profile pick for clue analysis, it is meant to be a parody of the vitruivian man, depicting someone turning into the hulk.
Adonai bless
SugiuraMidori
Profile Joined May 2009
United States281 Posts
February 18 2010 22:01 GMT
#1704
All right, something I've noticed, and don't go trying to hide now.. is based on the votes being made for individuals.. as there are only a few possibilities of each, and thus we can begin to stick people into groups!!!

Anyone that votes for someone that isn't a main vote (bandwagon type) or abstain has the following possibilities:

1) They're both green/blue, just trying to peg another target without following the thread much or using their own suspicions and ignoring the rest of town.
2) They're both red, but they have to be on opposite teams if this is the case.
3) At least one is red and the other is anything as who would individually vote for their own team without a damn good reason in the thread or first following many others.

This makes the following groups of people..

• Cheznu and Ver.. likely both fit into category 1.
• Opz and DrH.. could be either 2 or 3 as there are many that suspect DrH could be red still?
• Zona and 789.. L has mentioned 789 before, and others have mentioned Zona. This leads me to think category 2.
• Faronel and Malango.. Again, both have been accused (if memory serves me well) thus category 2.
• Opz & Lucas and nemY.. This means that there is a high chance that Lucas and OpZ are the opposite of NemY, I guess category 1.
• Nikoner and myself and Scamp.. I think Nikoner is red, so Scamp won't be on the same red team, so he's either opposing or green.
• Xelin and Nemy.. Could be anything.

Now, applying logic...
• We can group OpZ, Lucas, and Xelin as either all a red/green team, or a mix of red and greens all on the opposite side as Nemy.
• We can group DrH and Nemy, most likely both red, thus making the above three a set of red on the opposite side, or more likely, a mix of the colors.

As for the rest, can't correlate much at the time. And of course all the abstainers cause issues and could likely all be in a group themselves! Confused townies or various mixes of both red families not wanting to vote for fellow innocent townies or family members that have been called out in the thread.


And lastly.. a post count just prior to the day end:
+ Show Spoiler +

bill murray = 63
redtooth = 27
l = 26
malongo = 25
meeple = 24

citi.zen = 16
sugiuramidori = 14
chezinu = 13
lucaswoj = 12
mystlord  = 12
ver = 12
789 = 12
amber[light] = 11
doctorhelvetica = 11
madnessman = 10

scamp = 7
nemy = 6
vivi57 = 6
xelin = 6
faronel = 5
fishball = 4
caller = 4
foolishness = 4
iaaan = 4
infundibulum = 4
[nyc]hobbes = 3
masterdana = 3
shockeyy = 3
johnnyspazz = 3
phrujbaz = 3
abenson = 3
dozko = 3
versatile = 2
nikoner = 2
quickstriker = 1
shikyo = 1

I used blank lines to seperate out groups of Heavy/Moderate/Light posters.
Foolish Brother ... If You Want to Kill Me ... Then Hate, Spite ... and Survive Pathetically. Run and Run ... and Cling Desperately to Life.
SugiuraMidori
Profile Joined May 2009
United States281 Posts
February 18 2010 22:03 GMT
#1705
Oh.. and there is:
madnessmen vs. L now showing up. which is more based on his recent long post against L more than anything else.
Foolish Brother ... If You Want to Kill Me ... Then Hate, Spite ... and Survive Pathetically. Run and Run ... and Cling Desperately to Life.
Ver
Profile Joined October 2008
United States2186 Posts
February 18 2010 22:34 GMT
#1706
So I've been sick, sc2 came out and the thread is completely quiet, and lol suddenly out of nowhere all these silent people vote and say nothing for their rationales etc. RIGHT. Abstaining at this point hurts the town so badly. The most important thing is to post who you think is mafia WITH real support.

But first things first.

This is pretty simple. Nobody has claimed against my vet roleclaim or that I took a hit. This makes me a confirmed innocent. The most important step with confirmed innocents is to force roleclaims. Why do this? For one, it makes it easy for us to sort between inactive mafia and inactive innocents, and two, it let's us coordinate blues which is EXTREMELY important. Otherwise DTs will have a royal problem trying to get their information out, medic prots will be awry, etc.

Send your roles and night 1 actions to me asap

If you don't roleclaim you are either a) mafia or b) don't trust me; if b) is the reason why, then you better post in the thread your reasons why my proof doesn't work and why you didn't say anything earlier. Yes, you should roleclaim even if you are green, and obviously if you are dt, hatter, vigi, med, whatever. Trust me, it helps a lot. This forces the mafia to choose between roleclaiming blue (where it is really easy to figure them out) and roleclaiming green, instead of just getting to sit back. Of course if mafia doesn't want to roleclaim be my guest, it'll only make it easier to pinpoint them.

I'll get something for this lynch in a few mins but the main problem is that there are so many mafia that we simply need to pick one and go. Don't let this roleclaim step distract from the lynch, do both.
Liquipedia
Nikon
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
Bulgaria5710 Posts
February 18 2010 22:38 GMT
#1707
I'm red based on what? For all I know you're working together with Phrujbaz, trying to get me killed.
Nikon
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
Bulgaria5710 Posts
February 18 2010 22:38 GMT
#1708
^This post targeted at SuguiraMidori.
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
February 18 2010 22:39 GMT
#1709
ok... i counted 36 on that list... where are the other 9?

tree.hugger - abstained
zona - not seeing a vote
ohN - abstained
Abenson - not seeing a vote
CynanMachae - abstained
tredmasta - abstained
l10f - abstained
sidesprang - abstained
decafchicken - abstained

will zona / abenson get modkilled?
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
L
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Canada4732 Posts
February 18 2010 23:02 GMT
#1710
This makes me a confirmed innocent.
No it doesn't. Makes you very likely as innocent, but it doesn't make you confirmed innocent. Kinda like how DT checking and having them flip blue is a very good indication that they're innocent, but not 100% certain.

I'd still claim based on your activity relative to how you play as mafia, but mafia can safely claim hatter, vet and to a certain extent medic as well.

Like I said in PMs, I'm not exactly certain how this wins us the game, but the lack of overwhelming handicap that a mafia controlled roleclaim (the side that knows about the medics/DTs will also have sway over the medics/DTs through ver if he's mafia, and thus they won't want to kill them) to us in the immediate future is very small.

If one side gains a monsterous advantage in the next 2 nights, we will likely need all of the townspeople to publicly declare.
The number you have dialed is out of porkchops.
Mystlord *
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
United States10264 Posts
February 18 2010 23:12 GMT
#1711
Interesting note:

Where are all the people that claimed that any clue analysis before Day 3 is useless? We saw a huge outcry of that Day 1, then Day 2 it's suddenly disappeared... Rather suspicious if you ask me. Even Ver has stopped espousing that.

I'm also wondering why people are randomly voting without rationale. Ver pointed this out, but I'll point out that I have not seen anyone give a great justification as to why they're voting the way they are. This not only applies to me, but even more so to Bill Murray. Why are you lynching him? I haven't seen anyone in this thread point a finger to him, yet he's picking up speed and is apparently behind me in lynch votes.

Oh yeah, and SC2 took away the activity in this thread. I'll expect limited participation for the rest of the game, so even if I get lynched, I don't think I'll care too much


One final point:

Experienced Mafia know how to blend in with the town. They want to make the town believe that they are, first and foremost, one of them. For the past few days, we've been assuming that scum make mistakes or have a different play style than the town, but this assumption should only hold true for those nooby players. As of right now, we might like to play follow the leader with our best players, but at the same time, we're in the most danger of dying to these same players. The best players in mafia would, logically, be the ones that would best blend in with the crowd. So, the list:

Ver
L
Zona
Caller
redtooth
Infundibulum

(list compiled off of my limited knowledge of who has played before)

These people should be at the forefront of our list in terms of who to keep an eye on, especially since they'll probably be playing extremely town-like. Ver has claimed his innocence (which I believe), but I think it'd be prudent to keep a watch on everyone who is an experienced player.
It is impossible to be a citizen if you don't make an effort to understand the most basic activities of your government. It is very difficult to thrive in an increasingly competitive world if you're a nation of doods.
L
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Canada4732 Posts
February 18 2010 23:17 GMT
#1712
K, Mystlord, you're going to die and flip red. I need to eat dinner and would like to explain more but the clues are rock solid against you.

Rooftop killer, its time we killed you.
The number you have dialed is out of porkchops.
Ver
Profile Joined October 2008
United States2186 Posts
February 18 2010 23:17 GMT
#1713
If you believe me why haven't you roleclaimed?
Liquipedia
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
February 18 2010 23:18 GMT
#1714
Ver's innocence is extremely likely. However, it is only "proven" if we assume BC placed his bomb. So... I think DTs should claim to Ver. Medics, I don't think so. They should protect Ver - he is our coordinator now, but stay under cover just in case we see one mafia losing 7 members to 1 from the other.

I promised to be distrustful, no?
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
Ver
Profile Joined October 2008
United States2186 Posts
February 18 2010 23:31 GMT
#1715
Yes but there was a) BC's post telling medics not to protect me shortly before the night ended and b) I called being hit 11 minutes after the day post (mind you it took time for the pm too) when if I was lying I had no way of knowing if bc actually did bomb someone and I could've easily been caught in a lie. It would be very different if claimed being hit after 12 hours and nobody said anything, but that is not the case.

Regardless i'm expecting roleclaims. Medics should very well roleclaim because I don't want any innocents getting hit in the crossfire tonight (knowing all the blues makes it a million times easier).

This lynch is a lost cause since we simply got around to organizing it too late and too many people are inactive but whatever, this night is going to be real juicy.
Liquipedia
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
February 18 2010 23:32 GMT
#1716
fairly sure BC placed a bomb on zato-1... that's how I took it. could be wrong.
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Mystlord *
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
United States10264 Posts
February 18 2010 23:44 GMT
#1717
Because I didn't see your post Ver

Regardless, I'm 100% sure that I'm going to be voted off by the least amount of votes ever.

BM: I actually never considered that. It's possible that BC placed a bomb on a target the mafia hit, then when that person died, his bomb got refunded. Unless a DT role checks Ver and finds that he is a Veteran, then town has no way of checking whether Ver is telling the truth.
It is impossible to be a citizen if you don't make an effort to understand the most basic activities of your government. It is very difficult to thrive in an increasingly competitive world if you're a nation of doods.
Mystlord *
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
United States10264 Posts
February 18 2010 23:49 GMT
#1718
Oh yeah, and another reason why I'll be glad to be gone.

As of right now, we have 45 players remaining.

39 players have voted.

So besides me, 6 people will get modkilled tonight. Rofl. 7 people out of the game in one fell swoop unless in the next 10 minutes people start voting.
It is impossible to be a citizen if you don't make an effort to understand the most basic activities of your government. It is very difficult to thrive in an increasingly competitive world if you're a nation of doods.
Infundibulum
Profile Blog Joined May 2003
United States2552 Posts
February 18 2010 23:57 GMT
#1719
I'll be honest, I haven't had time to really read the thread the past couple of days and just got back from work and voting ends in an hour. What it looks like to me is that people are just silently voting without much discussion, and that Mystlord will be lynched based on clues, but really not a whole lot of discussion. The shift in activity is really something, but i guess we might have the sc2 beta to thank for that (i only watched 5 minutes so far).

The difficult part is gauging peoples motives when there are 3 sides. It isn't so easy to say that one he's just being voted off by townies, and the mafia groups are spreading their votes around. On the other hand there has really been no strong defense of Mystlord. This means to me that either he is not affiliated with either mafia, or if he is mafia maybe his team has resigned to let him die. Or L will pardon him, but I doubt that.

Either way, I'm gonna vote for Nemy to express my complete dissatisfaction with the proceedings thus far, even though he won't die.

On February 19 2010 08:32 Bill Murray wrote:
fairly sure BC placed a bomb on zato-1... that's how I took it. could be wrong.

LoL NA: MothLite == Steam: p0nd
Infundibulum
Profile Blog Joined May 2003
United States2552 Posts
February 18 2010 23:58 GMT
#1720
Oh, 2nd post edit: I meant to reply to Bill's post I quoted above.

We can be like 99% sure that BC didn't place the bomb on zato-1. Mad hatter kills aren't written in as clues.
LoL NA: MothLite == Steam: p0nd
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