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Here it goes... I don't think the odds of me dying this night are that high, but I don't think they are null. Here's what I think is important.
Hapahauli
First off, I have a town read on Hapa.
I was initially a bit suspicious of him when he started pointing fingers at me along with austin. That felt unnecessary at the time, besides being a little weird. He starts of by defending me, and suddenly he's asking me questions. It didn't feel natural for someone who mentioned he had a town read on me.
Then, after agreeing that my "basing yourself on GK" arguments were stupid, he actually mentioned them again later on, once he said he "lifted his town-read on me", even though they were reasonable and he had actually agreed with them.
This made me think he was scum that took the first chance he got to go after me.
Also, his Rewok -> Shiaopi switch earlier this night seemed like a "look at me, I'm an undecisive townie", and at that time I was almost certain he was scum, but I didn't bring it up because
But then... he made it a point to mention I was town once again. This would seem rather stupid and unnecessary as scum, as for a scum, austin's ticket to condemning me would seem perfect for him. This strongly makes me think he is townie. Either that, or for some reason, he thought it would seem too unnatural for him to switch like that, but I don't think that is scum rationale and given how much he's posting I will give him the benefit of the doubt. So, at least until the endgame, if he doesn't die without saves, consider him townie.
In the unlikely scenario that I die and he doesn't, however (again, without considering saves and roleblocks and whatnot), be very aware that him unnecessarily saying I'm town would be perfect to kill me and give him town points. Otherwise, he's town until proven guilty.
Toadsstern: I don't like his good-bye post. I don't like his "i'm not saying anything on S&B yet for a reason. However, if his tell on forumite proves itself true, it's almost certain he's town. " The best bus in TL history" involved him and VE going like maddogs after eachother, OMGUSing themselves to death. This seems way too different, so I don't think they both can be scum. I don't think they both can be townie as well. The amount of certainty in which he displays towards forumite is too high for a townie, unless this townie is absolutely certain of what he's saying, especially on something based on meta (which I think is the case). Should he live until the end, however, be thrice as suspicious.
Lurkers: One of the lurkers is almost certainly scum. Vigi not wasting his shot N1 is VERY weird, considering what toad said with the +EV and (because should a vigi die, a shot would be wasted). And who was absent during this game?? LVDR/MKFUBA. I think it's very important you guys consider this, as, if you remember, mafia is missing 2 kp. 2 medic's saves is UNLIKELY as hell, so a very reasonable explanation is that LVDR/FUBA IS SCUM VIGI AND DIDN'T SHOOT ON N1. Consider him a top lynch choice going into D3. (if it's possible that someone else could have given the vigi shot in his stead, then, ignore this, because I honestly don't know).
I don't know what to say about the rest. S&B seems suspicious as hell. Shady Sands seems suspicious as hell. But given how many more players there are that are non-contributive and useless, I don't think this is a strong scumtell. I don't like grush. I don't like Bill Murray. And I cant make a case on these because they are useless and random in their posting.
That's about it, hope I don't die, and hope this is helpful.
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Day 3 rises![[image loading]](http://www.globalgraphica.com/sneakers/big-brother-obey-5.jpg) austinmcc the town Vigilante has been murdered in some insane fashionhapahauli the Vanilla townie got owned in the faceIt is now day 3, you have 48 hours to decide the lynchDoYouHas has been replaced by mementoss
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Awwww, I always expected to go in a sane fashion 
gg
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AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
LETS LYNCH...................................................................................................................................................................................
ForUmITe1@!@#!@#!@#
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Omg, he was such an obvious target, I even hinted him here:
Also, keep in mind that if you are town, the odds of you dying are high, so right now is the time to get shit done
Cmon medic/jk.... I honestly hope you didn't save a vet. Mafia is still missing one kp. They are either saving their vigi shot, or the shot got blocked tonight...
Hapa
I would have gone with you being town 98% had we both lived... shit! GG
@austin: I hope you realize the error of your ways once I come up as townie... you are too biased when making reads man!
Let's not go too fast on forumite. Mafia is still missing a shot.
Also, no vets died, this strikes me as very weird.
Let me think about this.
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Why are we missing 2 mafia KP Z-Boson? I only remember one:
Ottox got (probably) shot by a townvig
BM24 got (probably) bombed by the suicidebomber
BC got single-stacked by GK according to BKE
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United Kingdom3482 Posts
On September 10 2012 07:17 Toadesstern wrote:
Why are we missing 2 mafia KP Z-Boson? I only remember one:
Ottox got (probably) shot by a townvig
BM24 got (probably) bombed by the suicidebomber
BC got single-stacked by GK according to BKE
He is assuming a mafia vig. Given that there are only two dead from last night I'm starting to think that isn't the case.
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Yea I was assuming there was a mafia vig.
I forgot that not all of the roles are necessarily present =/
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OK THIS CLEARS ME
NOTICE MY EARLY PRESSURE OF AUSTINMCC
HE WOULD HAVE DIED ALREADY
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On September 04 2012 19:37 Bill Murray wrote:
austinmc aka autismnc
I BROUGHT HIM UP AS A JOKE
On September 06 2012 07:06 Bill Murray wrote:
Austinmcc, what is your read on the Ottoxlol situation? His theories are over the top, right? What does that show about his alignment? Why?
then i filtered him, and i was like, holy fuck this guy has 3 wall posts and is the most obvious blue I HAVE EVER SEEN
but i didnt want to give it away, so i decided to engage him in questioning, as seen above
On September 06 2012 07:21 Bill Murray wrote:Show nested quote +On September 06 2012 07:18 austinmcc wrote:On September 06 2012 07:06 Bill Murray wrote:
Austinmcc, what is your read on the Ottoxlol situation? His theories are over the top, right? What does that show about his alignment? Why? Looking through his profile, I see his only other game was LIII. So he's at least played, although not with me. But he knows that some of the people in this game played that game, he played with them, he knows they are competent individuals with functioning brains. It's the first time I've ever seen someone cling to something absolutely wrong in this manner. I have posted paranoid rants in two games, stuck by them for a while as possibilities, gotten upset if people wouldn't consider them as possibilities, but I didn't get like this. Right now (and if Matt flips scum I will be more certain of the read) I can't help but read the whole thing like this: - Matt got caught
- Ottoxlol tried to save him, without realizing how bad an idea it was
- Ottoxlol shortly realized how bad an idea it was
- A decent scum player told him right after he got caught looking very odd that he couldn't back off his defense, because then he'd look even scummier
- So he went full bore nuts, and that's why he won't listen to anyone or anything
It doesn't feel like he's just obtuse. At some point he'd get the message. It feels like he's clinging to this. Do me a favor, and go read Gravan's filter as if he were a scum idiot
and then i encourage him to scumhunt, which he does. It was awesome. My questioning lead to him posting a little more, which may have bought him another cycle. IDK. Regardless, notice how I'm trying to get him to engage me in more scumhunting? I have no suspicion of him at all, not only do I figure he's town, I know he's blue/red, and I'm leaning blue at this point. He's not acting as per his townie meta, and he looks blue as shit versus being scum. He could be scum here, but that's why I'm questioning him at all, really, to see how he will react.
Well, he reacted well, so I, as above, asked him about Gravan
On September 06 2012 08:34 Bill Murray wrote:Show nested quote +On September 06 2012 08:32 austinmcc wrote:On September 06 2012 08:27 Bill Murray wrote:
ohhhh i get the bm/bm/bc thing now
yeah we're the 3 most obvious pro-town... regardless of alignment
possibly toad or even hapahauli... austinmcc is very pro-town as well, but i'd like to see more one liners from him On September 06 2012 08:25 Bill Murray wrote:
If Gravan gets vigged (lord willing) and flips scum, do you see any conclusions we can draw from it? Yes, that the scum team is trolling, because that would mean that they've all dun goofed hard. If matt claimed nosy neighbor AND ottoxlol defended him like he did AND gravan didn't check QT or nobody put something in QT saying "EVERYONE SHUT UP AND VOTE MATT," then I have a hard time believing there's a ... scum leader? I assume some of the players in this game have played real nice scum games, where they sort of orchestrated everyone's moves. If Ottoxlol and Gravan are both scum, then I have a difficult time believing that scum has such a player. At the very least that guy should be running damage control after Matt and ottoxlol make themselves obvious. if their "leader" is someone who is really into policy like Forumite or Toad then I could see a breakdown like this Without an overseer, you cannot see Dark Templar. Capiche?
Notice how I'm FoS the "top scum" who is likely Forumite
I don't think it's Toad - pretty sure he's town as per meta by now... he's just such a good player, that I'm wary of him.
Back on track, and off tangent, the bolded line above is me saying "hey, you're blue, but don't worry about me... im not scum"
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I actually like Shady Sand's Hapahauli vote. If Hapahauli takes off, I will definitely join.
I also found something from Sloosh that makes me not really care about him as much.
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On September 10 2012 07:44 Bill Murray wrote:
I actually like Shady Sand's Hapahauli vote. If Hapahauli takes off, I will definitely join.
I also found something from Sloosh that makes me not really care about him as much.
He died..................................
THEREFORE SOMEONE VIGGIED HIM AND YOU ARE MAFIA AND DIDNT REALIZE
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United Kingdom3482 Posts
On September 10 2012 07:47 grush57 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 10 2012 07:44 Bill Murray wrote:
I actually like Shady Sand's Hapahauli vote. If Hapahauli takes off, I will definitely join.
I also found something from Sloosh that makes me not really care about him as much. He died.................................. THEREFORE SOMEONE VIGGIED HIM AND YOU ARE MAFIA AND DIDNT REALIZE
Is that actually a scumslip or is he just too lazy to read the day post?
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I get the feeling that scum decided on those nightkills very close to the deadline, since Hapa and austinmcc dropped suspicions on BM, Toades and me right before dying.
About Toades case on me, I´ve been busy and haven´t been putting much effort into the game. Yes, I´m more cautious than my usual meta, which unfortunately puts me closer to how I behaved in Wheel of Fortune Mafia, my scumteam kept a low profile while town lynched eachother, this tactic worked well in that game. There´s not much more to say except that I have some serious rereading to do.
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On September 10 2012 07:58 Forumite wrote:
I get the feeling that scum decided on those nightkills very close to the deadline, since Hapa and austinmcc dropped suspicions on BM, Toades and me right before dying.
About Toades case on me, I´ve been busy and haven´t been putting much effort into the game. Yes, I´m more cautious than my usual meta, which unfortunately puts me closer to how I behaved in Wheel of Fortune Mafia, my scumteam kept a low profile while town lynched eachother, this tactic worked well in that game. There´s not much more to say except that I have some serious rereading to do.
i BELIEVE!
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On September 10 2012 07:52 imallinson wrote:Show nested quote +On September 10 2012 07:47 grush57 wrote:On September 10 2012 07:44 Bill Murray wrote:
I actually like Shady Sand's Hapahauli vote. If Hapahauli takes off, I will definitely join.
I also found something from Sloosh that makes me not really care about him as much. He died.................................. THEREFORE SOMEONE VIGGIED HIM AND YOU ARE MAFIA AND DIDNT REALIZE Is that actually a scumslip or is he just too lazy to read the day post?
Idk bm didn't respond so might actually be a scumslip.
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On September 10 2012 07:58 Forumite wrote:
I get the feeling that scum decided on those nightkills very close to the deadline, since Hapa and austinmcc dropped suspicions on BM, Toades and me right before dying.
About Toades case on me, I´ve been busy and haven´t been putting much effort into the game. Yes, I´m more cautious than my usual meta, which unfortunately puts me closer to how I behaved in Wheel of Fortune Mafia, my scumteam kept a low profile while town lynched eachother, this tactic worked well in that game. There´s not much more to say except that I have some serious rereading to do.
What? BS!! Hapa and I agreed early in the night that at least one vet is scum. It's not like all of a sudden some real dirt came from them just before the deadline... yea you definitely have some reading to do
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On September 10 2012 07:44 Bill Murray wrote:
I actually like Shady Sand's Hapahauli vote. If Hapahauli takes off, I will definitely join.
I also found something from Sloosh that makes me not really care about him as much.
I'm sure you like playing games.
Which one is your favorite?
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EPT
