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On May 11 2011 02:44 AirbladeOrange wrote:
Can someone tell me why Cthsazsa is cleared now? When I checked out all of his posts the other day there was a clear sense that he was wishy washy and never wanted to make a stand against anyone. But after Amber flipped red something changed but I don't recall it being a one or the other is red situation. Also I pushed him pretty hard and stuck with it and want to make sure we have enough to clear him or have bigger threats.
I'm not a big fan of the statistical analysis and using numerical values to determine one's scumminess. Maybe it's just because I hate math or maybe because I'm high on that list but certain things just don't seem to be a good indicator of how likely someone is to be mafia. Voting for town can just mean someone had a bad read, it happens to everyone. Changing a vote isn't scummy as long as the player provides a convincing reason for doing so. When they voted can just mean they wanted to see any developments that could happen before the day ends or they had other IRL things to do.
I'm not sure where I stand on EternalMisfit.
I think Sandroba is town and has gained a lot of town cred after the night.
As chaoser said, Cthazsa was cleared as he was the alternative candidate to Amber. Mafia was resisting the lynch of amber hard and were voting for him instead.
You're not sure about EternalMisift, how do you feel about ilovejonn and sinani206?
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Cth is definitevely town. The voting was very close and the only thing that made amber get lynched instead of Cth was chaoser's claim. Thus, Cth is town.
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Hold up everyone. You guys still think I am scum just because of a) I did not vote switch to Amber, and b) I was on the bad end of the lynches? Did I not already say I was going to be out the whole day on Mother's day? I cannot believe you guys would have missed that. Even if chaoser claimed his DT earlier in the day I would not have seen his claim, and his claim was actually near the end of the day cycle! I'd also like to hear what the numbers meant on orgolove's stat thing. 0.5 in b, 3 in g, 5 in j. I read somewhere people got - points just because they vote switched to Amber? Did you not consider the circumstance where I could not have gotten internet access that day because I was out? And just because people vote switched to Amber does NOT mean they are town, it could have simply been a bussing of a team mate.
On May 11 2011 02:31 Forumite wrote:
Ilovejonn only ever voted for Cthsazsa or players that flipped Town.
Are you for real Forumite? Last time I checked you were on Kurumi's lynch, as well as Cthsazsa's lynch. Here, I'll list people that have gotten the wrong lynch for both days that are still alive:
Forumite, sinani. So, I was out the whole day, what is your excuse Forumite? It's extremely suspicious to me that you would use that against me when you yourself have done the same.
Also, to accuse me of highly likely being scum/GF because I'm a veteran is ridiculous. I have been town aligned my WHOLE career on TL mafia and I am going to say that it is the same for this game. If you expect me to be godlike like chaoser, then sorry, I am trying to improve, but that does not mean it does not allow room for me to be wrong does it?
Today's vote I am going with EM. I'm demoralized for being wrong so many times already and the only thing that is keeping me going is that chaoser was suspicious of EM as well as my own analysis of EM.
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On May 11 2011 03:17 ilovejonn wrote:Hold up everyone. You guys still think I am scum just because of a) I did not vote switch to Amber, and b) I was on the bad end of the lynches? Did I not already say I was going to be out the whole day on Mother's day? I cannot believe you guys would have missed that. Even if chaoser claimed his DT earlier in the day I would not have seen his claim, and his claim was actually near the end of the day cycle! I'd also like to hear what the numbers meant on orgolove's stat thing. 0.5 in b, 3 in g, 5 in j. I read somewhere people got - points just because they vote switched to Amber? Did you not consider the circumstance where I could not have gotten internet access that day because I was out? And just because people vote switched to Amber does NOT mean they are town, it could have simply been a bussing of a team mate. Show nested quote +On May 11 2011 02:31 Forumite wrote:
Ilovejonn only ever voted for Cthsazsa or players that flipped Town. Are you for real Forumite? Last time I checked you were on Kurumi's lynch, as well as Cthsazsa's lynch. Here, I'll list people that have gotten the wrong lynch for both days that are still alive: Forumite, sinani. So, I was out the whole day, what is your excuse Forumite? It's extremely suspicious to me that you would use that against me when you yourself have done the same. Also, to accuse me of highly likely being scum/GF because I'm a veteran is ridiculous. I have been town aligned my WHOLE career on TL mafia and I am going to say that it is the same for this game. If you expect me to be godlike like chaoser, then sorry, I am trying to improve, but that does not mean it does not allow room for me to be wrong does it? Today's vote I am going with EM. I'm demoralized for being wrong so many times already and the only thing that is keeping me going is that chaoser was suspicious of EM as well as my own analysis of EM.
You do realise that Forumite voted sinani and not you? The argument against you still stands, as it does about sinani and I guess me as well. A last second change to Amber indeed does not imply town, but people who were on Cthazsa in the first place implies scum.
Orgolove's data thing was a bit over the top with assigning random points for various acts but does do a good job of pointing out the voting patterns and should still be considered.
I'd like to hear some more opinions on current issues. It's been the same few people talking.
It's 230am and I'm going to bed 
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Sorry, what does Forumite voting sinani right now have to do with what he said? I am merely pointing out what he said against me directly applies to him as well, so I don't see the point in him saying that.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Thoughts after reading through irish and Amber's posts after death:
irish_punk13
After a random vote he gets pretty defensive and disappears for a while. He then reappears later and claims to plan to post something useful in an hour. After a weird EBWOP adding jackal to his suspect list, he posts this:
On May 05 2011 04:22 Irish_Punk13 wrote:
Okay, for now my vote is going on AirbladeOrange for his last post. I don't like the fact that he's okay with the idea of lynching town. Kurumi is making some great posts so far, and I think he's most likely town based off of his actions so far. The fact that you think it's okay to lynch him tells me that you're probably scum, so I'm putting my vote on you.
The fact that he said he would post in an hour with a "useful post" and then later makes a post regarding AO, which would be impossible to be the focus of his "useful post" since the events came after his announcement means he changed his mind somewhere between the two posts. I'm willing to give AO some town points for this.
The two people most closely tied to irish seem to be chaos13 and redtooth. redtooth was the first person to place a random vote on irish, which made him such a big target in the first place. After realizing his random vote did not work, he defends irish pretty hard in the first lynch. chaos13 initially defends irish from the random vote and then apologizes to town for defending him. Later, he mentions speaking to irish about a lost password.
Amber[light]
On May 06 2011 07:30 Amber[LighT] wrote:
I almost want to see Kurumi flip to see how much we can trust his analysis.
If he flips green then I'd like to see some better analysis from Chaoser during day 2. It's going to really impact this game if we listen to someone who mislynches over and over again. Also if Kurumi flips green this doesn't confirm anybody.
He knows Kurumi will flip green and wants to make it clear that those that defend him shouldn't be cleared.
On May 07 2011 07:48 Amber[LighT] wrote:
Don't get hung up on the idea that "oh my god these people voted for Kurumi and he flipped green FoS ON ALL OF THEM!!!!!!!!1111one"
After the Kurumi lynch, he reiterates that the people on Kurumi shouldn't be considered suspicious
People that were most connected to Amber: Obviously the voting list is going to give us a decent idea. We will probably get most of the scum team from that list, but I wouldn't be surprised if the godfather decided to separate himself from the entire team in case it went to a late game situation. As for specific individuals, sandroba comes out as a 95% town for how hard he pushed him. I think a bus is unlikely at this point. Redtooth and Amber also had some interesting interactions, as posted below:
On May 08 2011 01:03 Amber[LighT] wrote:Show nested quote +On May 08 2011 00:40 sandroba wrote:
Amber, what's your opinion on the redtooth situation? His analysis mirrors mine in most cases. I would trust him as a town leader more than Chaoser, and I'll stand by that. Though I will say I don't agree with his posting plan. The idea is genuinely good with intention, but it will choke the town over the next few days. I can't stand by that plan.
On May 09 2011 00:07 Amber[LighT] wrote:
3. I was asked by Sandroba, the person who's also accusing me, what I thought about Redtooth's situation. I'm assuming this meant his playstyle, his emotional posts, and his "town plan" to increase government beauracracy by 20% for all players. I stated 2 things here. I would never vote to lynch Redtooth (ie I support him) and I do not like his townie plan (because it's a terrible plan).
He is going pretty far out of his way to tie himself to redtooth. The fact that he takes the time to restate his opinion and bold his views on redtooth make me feel that he is trying to bring down redtooth with him.
On May 09 2011 11:59 Amber[LighT] wrote:
Terrible analysis by the town. No wonder you were pushing bullshit for the last few days.
Probably a WIFOM post. This one should be ignored.
I have to head out right now, but later I'll comment on the current suspects.
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United States4714 Posts
Also, to accuse me of highly likely being scum/GF because I'm a veteran is ridiculous. I have been town aligned my WHOLE career on TL mafia and I am going to say that it is the same for this game. If you expect me to be godlike like chaoser, then sorry, I am trying to improve, but that does not mean it does not allow room for me to be wrong does it?
What sense does this make jonn? Just because you have been town in the past it obviously doesn't mean you are town by default in this game.
You say you are going to vote EM which is fine but who do you think is the GF and why?
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On May 11 2011 03:17 ilovejonn wrote:
Also, to accuse me of highly likely being scum/GF because I'm a veteran is ridiculous. I have been town aligned my WHOLE career on TL mafia and I am going to say that it is the same for this game. If you expect me to be godlike like chaoser, then sorry, I am trying to improve, but that does not mean it does not allow room for me to be wrong does it?
lol wut? Your past history has no impact on your current alignment. This seems scummy to me.
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Wow can you guys not read only one part of a sentence? I am basically role claiming there hello? It's fine if you don't believe you can go ahead and vote for me, but I'd rather not have us mislynch.
If there are still veterans in the mafia, my GF suspects are redtooth and orgolove. If there are only new players in the mafia team left it could be anyone really.
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EBWODP: it could be anyone except for sandroba, Cthsazsa. sandroba has a really pro-town aura and has been supporting chaoser all along. Cthsazsa because he was 2nd highest to be lynched yesterday, therefore he cannot be GF unless it was a super ballsy mafia move, which I don't believe for a second to be true.
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DropBear reads town to me. But then again I've been wrong a lot lately. Voting in case I'm not able to get back before night.
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It´s still about 32h before night, right?
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United States4714 Posts
On May 11 2011 03:59 redtooth wrote:
DropBear reads town to me. But then again I've been wrong a lot lately. Voting in case I'm not able to get back before night.
Who do you suspect red and who do you think is the gf? Even if you have been wrong a lot its better for the town still if you post your reads.
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Ok I just read my pm and the OP. Nowhere in the op is the word vanilla. I guess I must be wrong about EM.
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Fuck no, Dropbear claimed before him. LOL. Ok
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United States4714 Posts
I don't think that really says much sandroba. I believe most regular tl mafia games include the word vanilla for the townies.
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Alright, unless node allow for a full pm reveal from EM, I'm keeping my vote on him. No one else should post their role pm. I will compare it to mine and see if it's forealz.
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On May 11 2011 04:06 sandroba wrote:
Ok I just read my pm and the OP. Nowhere in the op is the word vanilla. I guess I must be wrong about EM. You refer to his old roleclaim, where he called himself Vanilla Townie?
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Yes, But DB did it before him. So, I'm inclined to believe DB is town, since the OP states only townie. That tells us nothing about Eternal, except that he is clever in the case he's mafia.
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EPT
