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On January 24 2014 11:54 gonzaw wrote:Show nested quote +...and you could guarantee one if any of the Foolishness voters were also scum. Not if you just said the only possible 3rd scummy that makes sense is kita. Sorry, this is the couple steps down the rabbit hole response to ... why scum Foolishness might not be worried about the lynch despite leading late in the game.
If he's mafia, and he has the third mafia vote on him, and I'm talking about voting prome or sandro, and sandro has 0 votes, then mafia expects the following:
Me to vote prome, taking things to 6/4/1
3rd Dude to be able to vote prome, taking things to 5/5/1
HOPEFULLY SOMETHING ELSE
I don't think this scenario makes sense, but as far as mafia Foolishness not being uber worried, IF there were another mafia on him, then things until 10 minutes to go LOOKED like the worst the vote would be is 5/5/1.
Yeah, I think we should stop 
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On January 24 2014 11:54 gonzaw wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2014 11:46 austinmcc wrote:On January 24 2014 11:41 gonzaw wrote:
There's also the fact that Foo had 6 votes on him (2nd guy had 3), and he's just calm discussing stuff with people and talking about his sandro read and shit, 10 minutes before deadline.
Weird if he's town (like...try to prevent your own lynch dude wtf), but much weirder if he's scum, UNLESS it's some preplanned scum bullshit bus where Foo takes the fall D1 for some reason or some shit. Sure, funky on both accounts, but then that doesn't get us anywhere. I don't think it's weirder for scum, scum have more control over the lynch because they can work in concert, so regardless of what the plan is, you can actually have a plan in place to hopefully not have yourself get lynched. And while prome only had 3 votes, I had been clear that I wanted prome/sandro over foolishness, and, as things were shaping up, I was going to need to vote prome to hope to have any effect on the lynch. That makes it like...6/4/1 or whatever, meaning another two swaps and everything groovy, and you could guarantee one if any of the Foolishness voters were also scum. I think....I think I should stop going this route and just stick to HEY EVERYBODY HERE'S SOME WEIRD STUFF TALK ABOUT IT. Doesn't make sense scum think they have the control of the lynch when one of their own has 6 votes against him 8 minutes before the day ends. The only plan to save himself from lynch like that....is vote shenannigans. I doubt Foo would think anybody would do vote shennanies on a townie (i.e not on sandro of course). Again, remember this stuff happened all 15-10 minutes before deadline. Anyways, I guess both of us can rationalize anything by now, so maybe this kind of discussion is pointless. Show nested quote +...and you could guarantee one if any of the Foolishness voters were also scum. Not if you just said the only possible 3rd scummy that makes sense is kita.
Also consider how sandroba's vote went down. He comes in and slaps his vote on Promethelax when I'm at 3 votes. Why would he do this? As I explained before, mafia were very happy with the votes at that time. Town Foolishness is in the lead with 3 votes and it's looking bad for him. Second in line is town Promethelax with now 3 votes with his. No mafia is being pressured and it's looking good for them. He didn't want to vote for me since that would look like a bandwagon vote and he would be suspicious after I flipped town. After that happens he can play up that I was right about Promethelax and push for his lynch on day 2. Furthermore, let's say that somehow I didn't get lynched and Promethelax got lynched instead. Now he can just play up that I'm mafia and that I misled everyone and plan to get me lynched day 2.
Sandroba's vote at the time makes perfect sense in conjunction with the line of reasoning that mafia were very happy with the way the votes were going day 1. Which correlates to the switch on sandroba being a town move (probably 100% town).
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Yeah, but then his 3rd buddy would basically out himself by having that voteswap. Also, because he lead the votes, he'd still get lynched there (when in a tie, the guy that had the most votes first gets lynched).
Anyways yeah let's stop.
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Foo, you need to learn how to make ad absurdum arguments.
You don't have to show that sandro's vote makes sense if you are town, you have to show that sandro's vote DOESNT make sense if you are scum.
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I mean, that's one of austin's biggest bothers with your other posts before, you always assume you are town in those narratives of yours.
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Eh. I'll have bothers regardless. My bothers are less with foolishness's recent posts and more with the thread reaction to them, or what I think of as a long-term memory problem (I know there's some psychology term for weighing the recent events more heavily).
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On January 24 2014 12:03 gonzaw wrote:
Foo, you need to learn how to make ad absurdum arguments.
You don't have to show that sandro's vote makes sense if you are town, you have to show that sandro's vote DOESNT make sense if you are scum.
On January 24 2014 05:48 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2014 05:42 gonzaw wrote:
Anyways, I don't really see scum Foo here just shutting down basically possibilities for his scumteam to win later. He straight up calls Prome and marv like confirmed town. He had every right in the world to keep tunneling them (like he did on D1), yet he makes sense and instantly backs off both of them, reducing the pool of suspects to 5 (Foo, Toad, VE, Kita, Holy), where there are 2 scum and we have 2 misslynches to spare.
That's scum suicide basically, unless he can be so sure he can win in that 5-people standoff.
And I mean, by "has every right in the world to keep tunneling them", I mean in the sense of what VE is doing here attacking Prome. I.e basically ignoring the fact Prome fluently participated in sandro's last-minute lynch and trying to nitpick other stuff and coming up with complex scenarios he's scum, etc.
Scum Foo would be all over that shit with both Prome and marv. Specially with marv.
I'll just assume he's town for now until we misslynch someone. If I'm mafia what is my game plan to win this game? That'd probably mean the other member was on the sandroba train and I'm hoping that he can cruise the next 4 lynches to victory. If my mafia buddy is in the pool of Toad, Kita, VE, WoS then we're pretty much screwed since they are already under suspicion and I can only survive so long and divert so many lynches before I get punished for it. If one of you, austin, marvellosity, Promethelax, Hapa is mafia I'm pretty sure they will reveal themselves over time. Not tomorrow, maybe not even day three, but they will show it eventually. Off of long term behavior.
On January 24 2014 04:55 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2014 04:46 gonzaw wrote:
Well, post reasons then.
Is there any reason we should consider a Foolishness/Sandroba/Promethelax scumteam? If I'm mafia with sandroba that should clear Promethelax. The other mafia would likely to be kitaman or HolyFlare or just a random straggler who was already voting for me. Promethelax has made a lot of sense in his most recent posting (not the drunk ones, though I actually can't tell for some of them lol). Also sandroba went after him.
It does make sense if I'm mafia, and I said this before. But as Austin correctly pointed out who is the third mafia and why wasn't there a bigger push to save me? Sandroba's vote is a comfortable vote, if the mafia needed to save me there would have been a push to save me. They were letting the town do the dirty work for them.
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On January 24 2014 12:07 austinmcc wrote:
Eh. I'll have bothers regardless. My bothers are less with foolishness's recent posts and more with the thread reaction to them, or what I think of as a long-term memory problem (I know there's some psychology term for weighing the recent events more heavily).
Availability Heuristic
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Yeah. Some y'all availability heuristic-ing mofos up in here.
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I'm going to stop for now, not been very productive last hour or so. Will stick more to chattin' for the rest of the day.
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Well, there's not much we can do if the guys that are supposed to be doing the talk are not (VE, Toad, kita, WoS)
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Never fear, Wave is here.
Two things I can say with the utmost confidence right now:
1) I am NOT getting lynched today.
2) I will be spending the rest of my evening posting reads and responses to whatever I feel is necessary, whether or not people are around right now to read them. If they go ignored then so be it.
If there are people around right now, I'd love to talk with you, but just know it may be difficult for me to do two things at once.
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On January 24 2014 12:46 WaveofShadow wrote:
Never fear, Wave is here.
Two things I can say with the utmost confidence right now:
1) I am NOT getting lynched today.
Oh....now you just make me want to test that!
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On January 24 2014 12:48 gonzaw wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2014 12:46 WaveofShadow wrote:
Never fear, Wave is here.
Two things I can say with the utmost confidence right now:
1) I am NOT getting lynched today. Oh....now you just make me want to test that!
It would be a pleasure.
To you I say, bring it!
(But in all seriousness I say that in the sense that I will prove my innocence and you will not want to lynch me, rather than goading you into simply lynching me to prove me wrong.  )
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Post 1
The above is so I can keep track of where I am, what I've put into each post, and possibly make it easier for other people to dig stuff up in what is sure to be a LONG series of posts
I'm going to start with Prome and VE since I promised reads/dives of those two yesterday.
VE:
On January 21 2014 11:49 VisceraEyes wrote:Counterquestion Promethelax. Why VE and not WaveofShadow, who posted this at approximately the same time as the post in question. Show nested quote +On January 21 2014 11:21 WaveofShadow wrote:
As far as I can tell, he doesn't respond to pressure on himself this early so it wouldn't matter.
I only offered that as an aside anyway, my main reason for not wanting to vote him is because I literally don't see one.
Hapa, do you see yourself getting shot N1 in this game?
I'm starting from way back here.
I know this one has been done to death but this was the stat of where my townread of VE came from. May have been an obvious point but both VE and I came up with this at the exact same time. I know I am town. Usually when you have two people of similar mindsets in a given scenario, coming up with things independently, it means they are of similar alignment. I know I am town, ergo, VE must be town. Moving on:
On January 21 2014 11:22 VisceraEyes wrote:
If we're talking meta, pressure won't mean anything to sandroba. He'll either play or he won't, and if he's town he'll probably find some scum. People like kita voting for him as a joke will probably not pressure him as much as you seem to think.
Now this one is slightly more interesting. VE and I again both came up with this at the same time. One must ask oneself here, given that we know now the alignment of one sandroba, do you really think VE and I would both defend him at the exact same time with basically the exact same post? Originally this was simply another thing to add to my believe that VE was town (see thought process above this one), but now I believe this proves that VE and I cannot both be scum. (Never mind us both leaving votes on Foolishness and 'disappearing,' that would be ludicrous scum play).
Once again though, thinking of this in context of a flipped sandroba, I agree this makes the both of us look bad---it is very easy as scum to toss this out as an innocent reason to remove suspicion from him early in the game, but I would look more closely at the formatting here. VE simply says that sandroba will not respond to pressure, whereas my post (that has been much maligned)
On January 21 2014 11:21 WaveofShadow wrote:
As far as I can tell, he doesn't respond to pressure on himself this early so it wouldn't matter.
I only offered that as an aside anyway, my main reason for not wanting to vote him is because I literally don't see one.
Hapa, do you see yourself getting shot N1 in this game?
actually talks about my own personal reasoning for not voting him---I am actually holding myself responsible here. IF VE is scum and my earlier inference was wrong, I think this post arguably implicates him more than myself.
On January 22 2014 01:39 VisceraEyes wrote:Regarding Wave, I mostly have a townread on Wave, but am biased because I'm super town to him. It's a failing. 
This post belies a towny mindset. Nothing much more to say about this one---I believe a post like this probably isn't easy to fake as scum. It's a known fallacy to gutread someone who thinks you're town as town, an obviously doesn't always apply given the people in this game life Foolishness who were suspect for throwing out random-ass townreads, but as scum it's certainly easier to throw out those townreads without coming up with a specific reason such as this. It's all in the mentality.
For most of the rest of D1 aside from the time around the lynch, VE didn't do a great deal. I could point out some more posts that make me think he could be town but they'd be weak proofs to add to the above. I do want to point this out:
On January 22 2014 10:03 VisceraEyes wrote:Show nested quote +On January 22 2014 10:00 Hapahauli wrote:On January 22 2014 09:58 VisceraEyes wrote:
Like, I've never seen gonzaw suspicious of me like this.
I can't recall ever seeing gonzaw as scum either.
Coincidence?!?!?!?!?!!?!??! Can we cut the trolling? Do you have any new thoughts/reads since you last left us? I'm not trolling - that was a genuine thought I just had. Town gonzaw is well familiar with my play, and I honestly can't remember a game he was scum in. But in the games I've played with him before he's been able to correctly deduce my alignment (generally town, but he's caught me as scum AND SK before) pretty much every time that I recall. So this game is an anomaly because he's NOT correct about my alignment this game. You think maybe you can stop being hyper critical of like everything I do please? <3
The beginning of some conspiracy theory business, a type of post he continues with into N1 upon his return. People are overly critical of conspiracy theory-posting and I can understand the basic reasons why (cluttering up the thread, conjecture, etc) but others have mentioned that they offer a unique thought process and bring information and ideas to the thread that may not come up otherwise. This may help to jog an idea from another townie, or they could even possibly be right every once in a while. I don't believe conspiracy theory-ing is inherently scummy, and I personally do it all of the time or the above reasons (and also because I generally tend to toss into the thread whatever comes into my head).
There is a scum reason for VE to toss random conspiracy-ish suspicion on gonzaw, obviously, but I believe as scum he would be aware it looks like shit. As town he's not worried about how bad he looks, he just wants to get possible ideas and info out there. Here he also begins to complain about gonzaw's beginnings of what for most of the day and night has been a vicelike grip on VE, which came to a head when VE ragequit the thread earlier. I'll come back to that.
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Post 2
On January 23 2014 02:10 VisceraEyes wrote:
I could MAYBE vote for HolyFlare. I'm teetering on the cusp of voting for Foolishness.
This is VE's return nearing the end of D1.
Where in all that is holy did this even come from? He started to suspect Foolishness a little bit but Holyflare? And what happened to Prome?
On January 23 2014 02:51 marvellosity wrote:
I'd very much like to hear from VE as well re: Prome
Seems kita and marv noticed too, and they get a couple townie pts imo.
On January 23 2014 02:57 VisceraEyes wrote:
I don't know man, the catchup posts seemed disingenuous, but I'm afraid I'm biased. Based on the posts I'm more willing to admit that I could be wrong about Prome, and yes the alternatives are looking better.
The thing about Prome is that there's no POP to his posts - when he's town, when he thinks he's found something suspicious something clicks and his confidence shoots up and you can see it in his posts. I didn't get that feeling when he was posting about you. But again, I'm not sure how much of it is my own bias speaking.
Foolishness/Sandroba/HolyFlare are three targets who are, in my opinion, well equipped to prove their worth D1 if they're town. That none of them has been able to do this is troubling to me.
Here some ideas of his have begun to resurface and I remember agreeing with this post, but in context it seems really weird and out of place.
I think the absolute worst thing VE has got going for him in his filter is his 'round-the-lynch' shenangians, Vote-swapping all over the place with zero justification. In my opinion however, that is the ONLY scummy thing he has going for him at this point in his filter. It's not small, but it is enough to ignore everything I've posted about thus far?
On January 23 2014 07:02 VisceraEyes wrote:Show nested quote +On January 23 2014 06:57 marvellosity wrote:
Why is VE playing in some other random scrub game and not in this game at deadline btw? That's not very nice. :/
Marv may have had the right of it here...the fact that VE didn't in fact care at all about the lynch. This could mean it was because he is scum and didn't care, town and didn't care, and/or was simply too engrossed in his other business or the other game. I'm not sure how alignment indicative it is for VE, but I think it makes marv look even better as an aside.
The beginning of VE's depressed/martyring stage.
On January 23 2014 09:17 VisceraEyes wrote:
Whatever just lynch me next, I'll help you guys decide who to lynch after me.
On January 23 2014 09:18 VisceraEyes wrote:
Whichever one looks the worse of Prom/Foolish is where I'm at now, I'm going to reread the thread when I wake up tomorrow.
I think this is where I was at here as well, but I digress.
It was mentioned that a scummer who just had a buddy get lynched is going to show up angry and depressed in thread; this was even a point brought up against me when I raged at the end of D1 in the aborted LXIV. I find this to be ludicrous. If a scummer is being browbeaten by people like gonzaw and Prome into submission before the second day even begins, why bother to respond at all? Why bring a negative attitude into the thread where people are likely to pick up on it and say the things they have? This may be WIFOM, but way more often than not, I find emotion such as this is not faked, and does not come from a fake place either. I've seen it come from scum (DrH in Bluelightz) and I've seen it come from town (way too fucking many to name). At the very least I can say that VE is pissed off here because he is telling the truth. It does not 100% mean he is town telling the truth, but I personally believe it to be so. The idea that VE may be well aware of his meta and is faking the rage is certainly prevalent but it certainly doesn't appear to be fooling anyone (aside from me) if he is scum so why bother? DOES VE ragequit as scum?
His discussion with Prome at the end is one thing that really doesn't make him look good since Prome was actively REALLY trying to engage him and get something good out of him and he quit on it, whatever his reasons may have been.
Ultimately when gonzaw said it was VE's 'trial by fire' he has the right of it---his actions and behaviours don't always quite line up but if he doesn't show up to steer us in the right direction (one way or another) he is going to be lynched today. I for one would be very glad to talk with him to figure him out and prove things to the thread once and for all. The only way I will be voting VE today is if he gives up entirely; until then I consider him town.
VE doesn't always do things well, and doesn't always do things right; Prome mentioned that he's 'not bad:'
On January 24 2014 05:59 Promethelax wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2014 05:44 VisceraEyes wrote:On January 24 2014 05:28 Promethelax wrote:On January 24 2014 05:19 VisceraEyes wrote:On January 24 2014 05:18 gonzaw wrote:
I try not to be an asshole normally, but you are walking right into that shit VE I'm not walking into anything, I'm literally trying to have a conversation. You're being an asshole for no reason. I'm saying please stop. Now please stop. You are suggesting that the three leading votes candidates, all of whom strongly pushed each other are all scum together. And you are getting mad when people suggest that that assumption is anyone but silly. VE look, you aren't dumb, you aren't bad and you usually don't get caught up in conspiracy theories. What is it about this game. This time. That leads you to going for the most complex solution to the problem? Why is Kita off the table when a few minutes ago you said kita's use of the town pairs thing made him scum. Why are fool and I scum together? Why is either of us scum individually? I just don't understand what your thought process is at all this game dude. And generally I'm there with you but here I'm not at all. It's not complex, it's actually really really simple. Foolishness, semi-lurker, is paired with sandroba, hard lurker and Promethelax, hard lurker. Foolish decides to try and get a wagon going on Promethelax, knowing that towns typically don't go for lurker lynches and crazy VE is voting for him too so meh. Town, unsurprisingly, votes for another lurker. Generally not a problem, but in this case it's the OTHER scum. So Promethelax has to come out of hard lurk and vote with town. I just don't see it. This is so not the reasonable conclusion to come to from this day one. I can't balance out VE being not dumb and ve believing this. I get that you'd consider it because paranoia happens to all of us and I've considered a lot of weird stuff this game, I just don't that this theory is the one you think is most likely and most worth pushing. You've been convinced since early day one that I am scum and haven't updated that read at all through the game, it isn't evolving instead you are working a crazy conspiracy theory to make sense of me still being scum after essentially being the hammer on a scum lynch, So VE why is this the most likely situation for you? Why am I more scum than fool? Why was Kita mentioned but dropped?
but I believe that it is entirely possible for a town VE to play this way.
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Just a quick break because I'm noticing a common theme that's pissing me off and I will probably bring it up in my inevitable defenses:
Stop calling 'fluffy' shit mafia-indicative. It's null.
Everybody posts 'fluff.' Some people more than others. Some people don't even really realize when they're posting 'fluff.' I think one of the only times I can think of where mafia actively tried to post fluff to shit up a thread was BH as Wade Fell in The Game. Otherwise mafia have plenty of other ways to ruin a thread, and that's by injecting false reads, misleading the thread and looking good themselves. Why would anyone actively post arbitrary bullshit if they're constantly going to be called out for it? Two reasons:
1) They don't believe it's bullshit. You know, 'cause the idea of what's bullshit and what isn't is PURELY SUBJECTIVE.
2) It's fucking IMPOSSIBLE to keep every post full of perfect content that will please everybody.
In this game and in a lot of others, people are always getting called out for posting things that other people don't find important or up to their standards. Sometimes people actually do post nonsense but it ends up being for no other reason than they feel like it. It may shit up the thread a little bit but that alone is not enough to derail a lynch or mislead a town. No, shitting up a thread is things like long-drawn out arguments, attempting to actively steer discussion off-course, things like that. Things that are often accomplished by non-fluff-type posting.
Sometimes I post fluff. Sometimes austin posts fluff. Sometimes kita posts fluff. Sometimes VE posts fluff. SOme people post higher frequencies of it than others, depending on game timing and circumstances. For the people who don't (or believe they don't), I guess you're all just better people than me.
/rage
/fluffpost
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I'm not really here, but
![[image loading]](http://dealbreaker.com/uploads/2013/06/marshmallow-fluff.jpg)
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WoS, if you're still up, can I ask you to undertake a funky made-up task for me? Pretty please?
If your answer is yes and you're up and active, when you finish going through whatever you want to go through, I'd like for you to play along with this scenario. I am a cop. I have a red check on gonzaw. I tell you this. You smack your head and go, "Aha! It all makes sense now. I should have known Gonzaw was mafia, because __________." If you so choose, you can keep going and add, "Also, now that I know the mafia team was sandroba/gonzaw/?, the third member is almost certainly _______."
EVERYONE ELSE I'M NOT A COP. I DON'T HAVE A RED CHECK.
Just curious. If it were to turn out that Gonzaw is mafia, when you look at his filter, what would give you that, "man, I should have seen this thing because it points towards mafia Gonzaw" feeling?
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EPT
