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TL Mafia XXVI - Page 61

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MTF
Profile Blog Joined January 2005
United States1739 Posts
June 10 2010 06:30 GMT
#1201
On June 10 2010 15:19 LunarDestiny wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +

Hmm, MTF got some nice insight which encouraged me to do some investigating at least. I dig around the clues and found something kind of interesting but kind of weak.

Sorry crate, this weak clue points to you.
crate's Public Profile:
You know, the most amazing thing happened to me tonight. I was coming here, on the way to the lecture, and I came in through the parking lot. And you won't believe what happened. I saw a car with the license plate ARW 357. Can you imagine? Of all the millions of license plates in the state, what was the chance that I would see that particular one tonight? Amazing!

The theme of crate's profile is "what is the chance?"

day 1 post:
Incognito the Pardoner, through his tremendous intuition, had sensed that something was to go down last night. Whilst in his office finishing his work, he deflected no less than five assassination attempts, ranging from sniffing poison in his coffee cup to leaping out of the way from a thrown knife while walking down the hallway. Dedicated and passionate to his job, Incognito would not let any threat deter him from furthering the prosperity of the town. By 11:00, he had finished everything, and after securing all the windows and other entrances into the building, he prepared to leave for the night. However, on his way out, he passed by the receptionist’s desk, and then something bad happened. Somebody had forgotten to turn off the printer, and it was on the point of overheating. Incognito recognized the danger and started backing away quickly, but in one freak moment, the printer exploded and showered Incognito with burning hot ink, hitting him in the face. As Incognito ran outward toward the street to escape, he was struck by a speeding car.

The whole paragraph is about Incognito being very cautious and yet got the worst luck ever Somebody forgot to turn off the printer and it exploded hitting him with hot ink. The chance of that happening was pretty low.
He got ran over by a speeding car which might not be unintended. But a speeding car often refers to reckless, acholic drivers right?

But the counter argument is the line: Incognito recognized the danger and started backing away quickly. Because Incognito realizes he is in danger which means what is happening is not unintended.

I hope this wasn't already pointed out by someone.


It was, by me. :p

+ Show Spoiler +
crate:
+ Show Spoiler +

Relevant Clues:
+ Show Spoiler +

Day 1:

Crime he thought, so unlikely in his town.
...
Whilst in his office finishing his work, he deflected no less than five assassination attempts, ranging from sniffing poison in his coffee cup to leaping out of the way from a thrown knife while walking down the hallway....Incognito recognized the danger and started backing away quickly, but in one freak moment, the printer exploded and showered Incognito with burning hot ink, hitting him in the face. As Incognito ran outward toward the street to escape, he was struck by a speeding car.


Connection to crate:
+ Show Spoiler +

crate's profile quote is from Richard Feynman. It relates to the percieved improbability of things. It seems very improbable that Incognito would survive all of these attempts on his life, just to get sprayed in the face with hot ink and then run into a speeding car.


Verdict:
+ Show Spoiler +

I like crate's posting. A lot. And the clue is somewhat convoluted. So, I'm far from sold.


I still think he's town, but, as I said, keep note of the clues and look for recurrences.

As for your counter-argument, I can't say I agree with the reasoning. He realizes the danger of the printer overheating - this does not stop the printer overheating to the point of exploding, leading to Incognito's death from being improbable.
Think. :)
deconduo
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Ireland4122 Posts
June 10 2010 09:31 GMT
#1202
Well it seems like I was wrong and the DT is good. Voting oni + DL
zeks
Profile Blog Joined September 2007
Canada1068 Posts
June 10 2010 11:43 GMT
#1203
On June 10 2010 12:40 LunarDestiny wrote:

Show nested quote +
On June 09 2010 23:40 zeks wrote:
In DTA I trust.

Very simple answer. Maybe he played mafia before and knows that when someone declares someone else mafia with a dt checks, then the accused would almost always be lynched.


No his declaration of finding mafia through a DT check is only justified because I think for the past 50 some pages he has established himself as more town than mafia.
"Two roads diverged in a wood, and I-- I took the one less traveled by, And that has made all the difference."
DarthThienAn
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States2734 Posts
June 10 2010 13:34 GMT
#1204
Doing a bit of my own clue digging, in response to MTF's thing.

CompX
Why: "All I do is sleep" - barth was getting ready for bed when he got killed. There's also the tony the stone giant thing and the weight (which I know is a DotA reference, but still). It's not the strongest connection, but one I don't think has been pointed out before.

DCLXVI
pyr0ma5ta's death: "He knew that the mafia might target him for this, but it was his job."
Why: DCLXVI's profile includes a statement that implies an acceptance of death - he always has a travel kit and is always "prepared for death."
His quote "I can already see the ending" is somewhat suggestive of that ElyAs, how the killer magically got to the "end" so quickly.
His profile is another one of the "winners."

PIC = HOT CHICK!
lulz.
Anyone, his quote - "Babe Ruth blahblah" reminded me of the person who failed 5 times (which to me is a whole lot for an assassin to fail lol). "Strikeout king" there.
Also, the hot chick's shirt says "BOOK." barth was in a library before he went to go to bed. He was looking at pictures, sure, but if there was a book with pictures of those girls in there, I'd read it too.. xP. Also, is that Hyoyeon in pajamas in his public profile?




And what would this post be without:
+ Show Spoiler +



And


^_^


Note: just pointing out a few more possible connections, not saying that they're any good =p. I'ma stop now.
www.cstarleague.com | Love is like playing the piano. First you must learn to play by the rules, then you must forget the rules and play from your heart.
YellowInk
Profile Joined April 2010
United States578 Posts
June 10 2010 18:59 GMT
#1205
Less hot chix more analysis please! Still have a lot of people to hear from before the day closes.

That is, unless you're ok with the mafia derailing another Deucegladlier or TheGilaboy bandwagon...
zeks
Profile Blog Joined September 2007
Canada1068 Posts
June 10 2010 19:01 GMT
#1206
^ dont get what that is supposed to mean? You still think deuce is mafia?
"Two roads diverged in a wood, and I-- I took the one less traveled by, And that has made all the difference."
YellowInk
Profile Joined April 2010
United States578 Posts
June 10 2010 19:01 GMT
#1207
I see 3 Lions put in his vote 20 minutes ago. I hope he's writing up a monster of a post if he's really pro town. If he's mafia, I guess he could just post ala onihunter. :D
YellowInk
Profile Joined April 2010
United States578 Posts
June 10 2010 19:01 GMT
#1208
On June 11 2010 04:01 zeks wrote:
^ dont get what that is supposed to mean? You still think deuce is mafia?


Idk, that bandwagon was pretty suspiciously derailed. What has you so convinced he's green?
zeks
Profile Blog Joined September 2007
Canada1068 Posts
June 10 2010 19:05 GMT
#1209
I'm semi convinced cause oni was so willing to stack on him early and it was only at the last moment that the wagon was derailed - seriously doubt that the mafia saw that coming (also our vigi AFJ was the wagon starter)

"Two roads diverged in a wood, and I-- I took the one less traveled by, And that has made all the difference."
zeks
Profile Blog Joined September 2007
Canada1068 Posts
June 10 2010 19:06 GMT
#1210
^ correct myself i'm not semi convinced i'm 99% convinced
"Two roads diverged in a wood, and I-- I took the one less traveled by, And that has made all the difference."
DCLXVI
Profile Blog Joined August 2009
United States729 Posts
June 10 2010 19:08 GMT
#1211
On June 11 2010 04:01 YellowInk wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 11 2010 04:01 zeks wrote:
^ dont get what that is supposed to mean? You still think deuce is mafia?


Idk, that bandwagon was pretty epically derailed. What has you so convinced he's green?

fixed
It was derailed by our vigilante though. Sure some mafia might have switched too, but AFJ was the main force behind the switch.
I can already see the ending
YellowInk
Profile Joined April 2010
United States578 Posts
June 10 2010 19:13 GMT
#1212
While it was a townie who started the bandwagon 100% confirmed, and a likely townie who finished it (LD), early on most people were basically forced to get on the Deuce wagon for lack of a better target. Some mafia might have just gone with TheGilaboy and some mafia could have jumped ship to the MooCow vote. While I don't think the MooCow vote was started (obv) nor finished by mafia, I believe the mafia may have had an interest in making it possible.
zeks
Profile Blog Joined September 2007
Canada1068 Posts
June 10 2010 19:13 GMT
#1213
so unless somehow the mafia saw into the future that AFJ was gonna make some epic post

then deuce would've died; and if deuce was red the mafia would've stacked on one of their own which makes no sense (Note that most of the voters for MooCow were people who switched from deuce)

Some mafia definitely switched over to MooCow to even out votes (ala onihunter) but I'm pretty sure most of them are stashed on the deuce list.
"Two roads diverged in a wood, and I-- I took the one less traveled by, And that has made all the difference."
zeks
Profile Blog Joined September 2007
Canada1068 Posts
June 10 2010 19:17 GMT
#1214
Gila list:
LaXerCannon - forgot who analyzed him but we kinda established he was protown because oni had suggested he was mafia / lynching him (something of that sort don't quote me) in the beginning of the game
pyr0ma5ta - dead, confirmed town
CompX
bumatlarge

so that leaves CompX and bumatlarge and it doesn't help that they voted near the end

CompX pretty much posts only after day/night posts and I would say bumatlarge needs some analyzing if it hasnt been done already.
"Two roads diverged in a wood, and I-- I took the one less traveled by, And that has made all the difference."
YellowInk
Profile Joined April 2010
United States578 Posts
June 10 2010 19:28 GMT
#1215
I agree with you that there's probably a couple mafia on the Deuce vote. Smart mafia can't block vote. They would have taken a ton of heat to be the last one to switch over. Consider instead some of the last: DTA made it truly possible, but regardless of whether DTA is town or mafia, no mafia could switch over to MooCow after DTA switched. So if you assume DTA to be town (I still do, no worries), I'd say any number of mafia could live among:
DCLXVI
Misder
BrownBear
zeks
sputnik.theory
onihunter

For that matter, maybe the mafia were just hanging out over with TheGilaboy. Hard to say. What I do know is that among the people who stuck on Deuce the whole time, I'm pretty confident in most of them being town. It raises eyebrows when the folk you're less sure about are the ones all piled up on the other side of the vote.

I don't really know what's going on here. I'm putting a call out to see if other people are seeing the same things I'm seeing. It could help narrow down who is with us and who isn't.

Some of the mafia had to stay off of MooCow, though. It could be as few as 2 I'd say though without arousing too much suspicion. Even if we assume DTA to the good, that means we still don't have very reliable info to put out votes on - 3 targets remaining out of 5.

However, between this idea and clues, maybe folk would be willing to give it a much closer look. Posting patterns help too. We need more people to talk and this day has been horribly short on conversation. We cannot be lax because we have a good kill today.
zeks
Profile Blog Joined September 2007
Canada1068 Posts
June 10 2010 19:41 GMT
#1216
Don't understand how you can be confident on the people who stuck on Deuce the whole time. If the whole night went by the book (AFJ w/o his epic post) 80% would've voted on deuce thus there would have to be mafia in the deuce list.

I just want to note I never switched, my first vote was cast on MooCow not that it matters to most of you but I understand your suspicion YI (besides I've been suspicious to most of you since the beginning, don't know why though I think you guys should read over all my posts).

As much as the voters near the middle on MooCow should be suspected, the ones on deuce should be too - so many of them are inactive/useless. Plus I always thought you were in support of lynching inactives first
"Two roads diverged in a wood, and I-- I took the one less traveled by, And that has made all the difference."
YellowInk
Profile Joined April 2010
United States578 Posts
June 10 2010 19:52 GMT
#1217
On June 11 2010 04:41 zeks wrote:
Don't understand how you can be confident on the people who stuck on Deuce the whole time. If the whole night went by the book (AFJ w/o his epic post) 80% would've voted on deuce thus there would have to be mafia in the deuce list.

I just want to note I never switched, my first vote was cast on MooCow not that it matters to most of you but I understand your suspicion YI (besides I've been suspicious to most of you since the beginning, don't know why though I think you guys should read over all my posts).

As much as the voters near the middle on MooCow should be suspected, the ones on deuce should be too - so many of them are inactive/useless. Plus I always thought you were in support of lynching inactives first

I think you misunderstand. I'm not confident of them because they stayed on Deuce but rather because of previous/current analysis. So the whole situation reeks when the people I am tending to trust are the people who stayed on Deuce while the people who I tend to not trust tended to be the people who were voting elsewhere.

I am in support of lynching inactives first, but when a situation stinks to high heaven... our priorities are in lynching the mafia. Don't get me wrong, I don't want to lynch random people on the MooCow or TGb list. I want people to figure out what's going on here because something stinks and I showered this morning.
DarthThienAn
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States2734 Posts
June 10 2010 19:54 GMT
#1218
If anything, I'd be confident of those who were around at the time and voted for Deuce, but didn't switch. No matter how you look at it, MooCow is a better target than Deuce. We know MooCow was town, so if Deuce is mafia, easy decision for the mafia there. If both were town, MooCow was considerably more active = a better target = mafia would want to switch, like onihunter did.

The people who didn't switch because they were inactive for the MooCow voting don't get cleared. THe people who posted in thread at the time but chose to stay on Deuce are the ones who get cleared of suspicion.
www.cstarleague.com | Love is like playing the piano. First you must learn to play by the rules, then you must forget the rules and play from your heart.
bumatlarge
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States4567 Posts
June 10 2010 20:16 GMT
#1219
Well considering you had to vote, you could bring up reasons to suspect any of the lists. Its the switching and not switching thats important. I like darth's reasoning a bit but, there seemed to be alot more then 6 people switching. And Deuce was a useless lynch IMO, he voted for himself for gods sake, what mafia would do that. If you start bringing up clues and such on him, then we can start being suspicious, but wondering why people switched off him because he was a lazy apathetic towny in their eyes doesnt seem logical.

And it's nice to see inspection of the people I posted, so I'm going to throw crate and darth in with the next post I do with previous clue found on them, because Im losing it (maybe I should drink more when im analyzing lol). I'll get to yellow in a bit.

Also, why MTF can avoid suspicion because he is a bulletproof role? I think it's still relatively up in the air until his medic can find a way to vouch for him. I'm just entirely against ruling anyone out as mafia.
Together but separate, like oatmeal
YellowInk
Profile Joined April 2010
United States578 Posts
June 10 2010 20:21 GMT
#1220
You never rule anyone out as mafia unless their role somehow gives them the ability to out themselves. Instead, you just make guesses as to the odds a given player is mafia. How convoluted is the path that makes MTF mafia? Pretty bad. Wouldn't the mafia have had better odds of winning if they hadn't wasted kills trying to set MTF up? Of course you can play the game of, "Well that's what they were expecting! So because of that, it makes this plan good!" but each time you do that it just gets less likely.

In the end you have to vote for someone. If it were down to 3 players and I had to pick between MTF or Deuce being green, I'd go with MTF and lynch Deuce every time and win the vast majority.
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