EPTI agree with you completely; read the post I just made above yours.
TL Mafia XLVII - Page 49
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
I agree with you completely; read the post I just made above yours. | ||
|
wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
Yeah I just finished reading that after I finished that post. I was reading backward into the thread lol. I'll address the plan stuff in detail at the end of this post, as I actually have a solution to some of the concerns. However, it requires that we get around 5-10 good scumreads by the end of today. So, I will start with that. I have four decent scumreads already. #1 is youngminii. I've already stated why he is scummy, look into my filter if you desire a reiteration. If anyone has questions, please ask. If he ends up being the day 1 lynch then obviously we can't use him in this plan, but if not I think he should be in there. #2 is Erandorr. Erandorr is scummy because he has done nothing to push his mayoral candidacy. He said, in his campaign post, that he would be active and transparent. He has been neither; he has not been playing his "new style," he's been gone this entire time. Beyond that first post, he's done nothing. Good bet for this plan, IMO. #3 is Blind_Rawr. He showed up, said "things are getting interesting really fast" and then was gone. He was enthusiastic to play but he's been completely absent. He's done nothing. Good bet for a shot n2, and I bet even a lurker vig could shoot him if he's still relatively inactive by then. #4 is prplhz. His mayoral candidacy was bad, as people have pointed out already (primarily supersoft.) It was aimed at minimizing mistakes, something that generally only scum want to do. Prpl knows this well himself, he's not super dumb. He's been getting better and more confident recently too, so I really doubt he would actually consciously push that as town. I think he's more likely to be scum than town at this point. My Addendum to BC's Plan: Optimally, we get like 4-6 more scumreads so that we can get a good list of around 8-10 people we want dead. Indeed, they don't all have to be checked n1. Some can be checked n1, some can be checked n2. Essentially, the way I imagine it working is like this: Step 1: We assign each player on the list of potential scum a number. Let's imagine that our list is this: 1. youngminii 2. prplhz 3. Erandorr 4. Blind_Rawr So, what we do is this: any DT who accepts the plan who is in the top 1/4 of players will check youngminii. This would be any DT in this list: + Show Spoiler + 1.) Erandorr 2.) Tyrran 3.) kitaman27 4.) sandroba 5.) bonifaceviii 6.) Kurumi 7.) BLinD-RawR 8.) tnkted 9.) GreYMisT 10.) Serejai 11.) Toadesstern 12.) tube 13.) redFF 14.) Vain 15.) eezyBash 16.) Mattchew 17.) Jackal58 18.) Belial- 19.) Palmar 20.) MrZentor Step 2: Coordinate the DTs on n1 and n2 Any DT who is in the second quarter will check #2, prplhz. So, that means, any DT in this list: + Show Spoiler + 21.) Risen 22.) Nokarot 23,) risk.nuke 24.) minus_human 25.) IMABUNNEH 26.) wherebugsgo 27.) dukethegold 28.) iLoveKT 29.) mcht 30.) ohN 31.) The1stNewbie 32.) t3tsubo 33.) cosine 34.) xtfftc 35.) DeadlyPsycho 36.) hyshes 37.) Chanyman 38.) Drazerk 39.) Penke 40.) ey215 And so on. Statistically it is equally likely for our DTs to be in any one of these lists. Once we split it 8-10 ways with 8-10 different players, we actually have it even better. On n1, have all the DTs in the top quarter/fifth flip a coin and pick either player #1 or player #2. Have all the players in the second quarter/fifth flip a coin and pick either #3 or #4, and so on. On n2, have all the DTs pick the other player. This type of random DT check mechanism makes it incredibly hard for scum to manipulate. All the DTs will be guaranteed two checks, with many of them having both checks flip on day 3. We can even lynch into the list to ensure that at least one player flips by day 3. Step 3: Coordinate the vigilantes on n2. We do the same exact thing with the vigges on n2. The vigilantes can't shoot till n2. That's fine. We have them shoot with the same mechanism, into the list of players. Some DTs will hopefully have two flipped targets. Some will have only one, but that's still good. Millers will flip as miller. Scum will flip scum. Most misleading mechanics will be dealt with. Framing will only work for the targets that live, and with this plan most of them should die. Vigilantes who shoot into the list and their target does not die MUST CLAIM THE SHOT IMMEDIATELY. This means that their target was protected, and in this plan the only people who are protected are scum, since it would be moronic for a town doctor to be protecting into a public list of scumreads. This plan will optimally give a majority of our DTs their sanity checks by day 3, and it will eliminate most of the players we think are scummy based on analysis. That's really good. We can also add lurkers to this list and use the lurker vigges as well. We'd have to intersperse them a little more, but it would work similarly to how the DTs would check. If the list is half lurker scummy and half non lurker scummy then the lurker vigges can shoot the lurkies and the regulars can shoot the actives. Questions, concerns? | ||
|
Ciryandor
United States3735 Posts
On November 25 2011 19:26 supersoft wrote: this game would be much more fun if i were mafia: i'd play like wbg or redFF, flooding the whole thread with bullshit. Just a question, then why lurk? That's like doing a WIFOM of what you are. I know you think that Sand/Palmar's candidacy are the best bets for town, why not provide support for them and at least downplay others' concerns if you think they're townie and they deserve your support? | ||
|
AmericanUmlaut
Germany2576 Posts
Like I said above, I agree with your reads on YM and prplhz. I question the logic of reading someone who posts and then lurks, though, given that it's Thanksgiving weekend. Blind-Rawr's account info says he's in India, so he might not have that excuse, but since Erandorr's location is blank, I'd at least still consider him a neutral read for the time being. | ||
|
supersoft
Germany3729 Posts
On November 25 2011 19:38 Ciryandor wrote: Just a question, then why lurk? That's like doing a WIFOM of what you are. I know you think that Sand/Palmar's candidacy are the best bets for town, why not provide support for them and at least downplay others' concerns if you think they're townie and they deserve your support? maybe i dont think that? so far i think only wbg and redff are town. but these two arent capable to be mayor. they're just too spammy/emotional etc. if palmar and sandroba fail to convince me, i am going to try to find someone alse. | ||
|
Palmar
Iceland22632 Posts
Let me think about it for a while, but I'm carefully voicing support for it, and I think productive discussion would be about the people we line up for killing. | ||
|
DeadlyPsycho
United States46 Posts
On November 25 2011 19:27 wherebugsgo wrote: Optimally, we get like 4-6 more scumreads so that we can get a good list of around 8-10 people we want dead. Indeed, they don't all have to be checked n1. Some can be checked n1, some can be checked n2. Essentially, the way I imagine it working is like this: Step 1: We assign each player on the list of potential scum a number. Let's imagine that our list is this: 1. youngminii 2. prplhz 3. Erandorr 4. Blind_Rawr Questions, concerns? Thats a good logical way to do it but I dont think DTs can really figure out who is scum or not after n1 because of their sanity? And good luck with the list, according to a lot of other people, you seem scummy :o | ||
|
Palmar
Iceland22632 Posts
Unfortunately WBG may be one of the best scum players in this game, but he has ONLY made logical calls up until now. The moment he stops that, we hang him. | ||
|
Palmar
Iceland22632 Posts
| ||
|
wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
On November 25 2011 19:45 AmericanUmlaut wrote: WBG: your plan actually sounds pretty reasonable to me, though I'd love to hear criticism from anyone who's got a better feel for how this will play out than I do. Like I said above, I agree with your reads on YM and prplhz. I question the logic of reading someone who posts and then lurks, though, given that it's Thanksgiving weekend. Blind-Rawr's account info says he's in India, so he might not have that excuse, but since Erandorr's location is blank, I'd at least still consider him a neutral read for the time being. Erandorr is European, Blind_Rawr is American. Neither player has an excuse. On November 25 2011 19:48 DeadlyPsycho wrote: Thats a good logical way to do it but I dont think DTs can really figure out who is scum or not after n1 because of their sanity? And good luck with the list, according to a lot of other people, you seem scummy :o Well that's the point, one night check is not enough. That's why every DT is assigned two checks, and hopefully both of them flip by day 3. By day 3 every DT who was involved in the plan will be further along in finding their sanity. If luck is on our side then most of them will actually have their sanity. Purely statistically I'd bet we'd have at least one or two DTs who will know their sanity through this plan by then. On November 25 2011 19:51 Palmar wrote: Do you mind if I incorporate your plan into my campaign WBG? Go for it. Anyone who supports my plan, IMO, is probably more likely to be town. I haven't yet thought of anything from a scum perspective that would mess it up significantly. If anyone can think of something, please let me know immediately so we can make alterations. | ||
|
wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
| ||
|
Palmar
Iceland22632 Posts
| ||
|
wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
I don't think that's an issue though, since the more scummy players we eliminate early, the less chance scum has of misleading us. If I were scum I'd love three or four days where I could just lead town in circles focusing on the massive amounts of scummy and dumby townies there will inevitably be in this game. | ||
|
sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
This wastes yet another day and his flip does not contribute anything towards revealing sanity, because it could have been tempered with in the previous night or not. The flips of any of the people in the list similarly contribute nothing to clearing sanity. Example: Sane dt checks framed red -> returns inocent. Said red gets shot/lynched->flips red->sane dt thinks he is naive/insane. The correct way to use DTs this game: You check into people you think are suspicious. You don't breadcrumb your role. You breadcrumb your check the next day. You simply say something along the lines: I think X is scum/town because of Y. Or whatever other clever way you can come up with. Be active and contribute in the thread. This will not be suspicious to the mafia because other townies do this all the time. There is a fuckton of people saying they think one player or the other is scum/innocent. Now you ask me how do we figure this guy's sanity? Said DT will at some point claim/die. At that point we look at the breadcrumbs and compare it to the flips in the game so far. We piece toghether the current info and deduce the sanity, the same way a DT would deduce his own sanity. There is no rush for confirming sanities and by focusing on doing so you waste a FUCKTON of information for no benefit. This is a huge, long game. Long term benefits FAR outwheight short term gain to have a DT say "Hey I'm sane and I found 1 single scum, yay", even if such plan to get early sanities was reliable. If we have a bulk of information we can clear/condemn a lot of players with very high likelyhood and get a much better perspecctive on the game as a whole, resulting in nailing much more mafia in the end. | ||
|
supersoft
Germany3729 Posts
I guess you forgot to add, that the DTs check another target of that list (the one they didn't get with the coinflip procedure) at N2, am I right? I just want to have things clear. _______ Palmar, I am willing to stick with you as mayor if you deliver some more names and work with us on that scumlist. I think this is priority #1. | ||
|
Palmar
Iceland22632 Posts
Important Announcement I am now officially supporting wherebugsgo's plan (based on BC's original work) for having DTs figure out their sanity. WBG has fixed a lot of my initial concerns with BC's plan, and I think it's now the best way for us to go forward. The plan is of course still subject to tweaking, but the general idea is outlined here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12441003 What this means to you, fellow Liquidian This means that if you support my campaign. You should now stop discussing the mayoral candidates, and start looking at people to line up on the list. If other candidates agree on the plan, feel free to vote for them. Here are the outlines of how I will implement the plan: Step 1: Selecting the candidates Everyone in Liquidia is free to make a case. Please preface your case with something like "This is why X should be on the list". Then write a detailed analysis as to why that person should be on the list. In order to make sure shitty cases don't end up on the list, I am giving certain experienced individuals a semi-veto power. Those people are: Palmar Sandroba Wherebugsgo Syllogism BloodyC0bbler Kitaman27 The catch is that three of us will need to veto a case for it not to be considered. This is to keep us honest. I included those 6 because most of them have at least attempted to look like they're town, so I consider it very unlikely there are 3 mafia in this list, making it very hard for scum to manipulate the list. I will, from now on, keep a list as a pseudo-signature in my posts of active cases. Please do not put anything other than your case in the post you present your case in, this makes it easier for people to read up on the cases that are active. Step 2: Using our Detectives Pending further scrutiny, I agree with the way WBG presented the idea. Step 3: Killing off the targets The targets will be killed through day/night 2 and 3. This will be done through lynches, lurker shots and vigi shots, depending on what's available and appropriate. No doctor is allowed to protect the targets in the list, and mafia would have very little incentive to shoot into the list anyway. We WILL make an exception on the "flip everyone on the list" If anyone on the list provides exceptional content that makes it highly unlikely that he's scum. This is now part of my campaign. The maximum size of the list will be 6 targets, this number is pending critique. I am open to suggestions for amends to my plan. | ||
|
wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
All that has to be true for my plan to work is that 20% of the players in the list are scum. In a list of 10 people, that's 2. In a list of 10 scummy people, I imagine that number will hopefully be at least 3 or 4, if not even 5 or 6. It's not an unreasonable expectation, since we're not blindly picking 10 people. Hell, even if we blindly picked 10 people the plan would still work. It wouldn't be optimal, but it would still work on pure statistics. Also, the likelihood of all the same DT's targets getting framed both nights is incredibly unlikely. Remember that the DTs will check TWO people on TWO nights. All of them will have TWO DIFFERENT checks. Yes, a frame might mess some things up. That's fine though, because a frame would mess things up no matter what. In this case if there are scum in the list then their teammates will likely frame them BOTH nights. That means the rest of the players who are being checked will be completely untouched. Sounds fine to me, IMO. | ||
|
wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
| ||
|
risk.nuke
Sweden2825 Posts
| ||
|
Cwave
Netherlands313 Posts
On November 25 2011 19:36 wherebugsgo wrote: #1 is youngminii. I've already stated why he is scummy, look into my filter if you desire a reiteration. If anyone has questions, please ask. If he ends up being the day 1 lynch then obviously we can't use him in this plan, but if not I think he should be in there. #3 is Blind_Rawr. He showed up, said "things are getting interesting really fast" and then was gone. He was enthusiastic to play but he's been completely absent. He's done nothing. Good bet for a shot n2, and I bet even a lurker vig could shoot him if he's still relatively inactive by then. Questions, concerns? On youngminii i don't agree with you. Noone is this loud from the start when he is scum. That would be too weird. With Blind_Rawr i agree that his shotgun visit and vague lines like "things are getting interesting really fast" are tells and he is high scum potential. About Palmar, i've been reading previous games he has played here @ TL and if he is red and becomes mayor, i fear for us all. He seems not afraid to push for lynches and whether the outcome is good or bad for the town, he shows confidense and walltexting to push on. If he is really a fellow townie, that will problaly lead to some good scumhunting. I don't see good alternatives for mayor atm so i have to leave my vote on him. | ||
| ||
