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TL Mafia LV - Page 122

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Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
June 05 2012 05:32 GMT
#2421
Wiggles, be smart about this. Evaluate his play regardless of his claim.

I don't understand how players of Kita's calibre can push a mafia agenda all game and then get away by just claiming. If he is scum it's a win-win situation for him to claim. Either he escapes the noose, or he finds the medic. So the smart thing to do is just ignore the claim. Without it he is clearly mafia, so why does his claim change things?
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Meapak_Ziphh
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6786 Posts
June 05 2012 05:41 GMT
#2422
bow chicka bow wow responding to the meapak signal.

I am not a vet, kita's claim is good in my eyes. All the people who still want to kill him after this are rather silly. Occam's razor has had kita as town for a while now. He's acted super weird I won't deny that, but the fact that so many people can't make a good case on him should really tell us something. And now, after his claim, Occam's razor is even stronger. A lot of my case against VE was creating connections that didn't exist and I'm not going to make that mistake again.

I'll just restate, kita's claim is good and we're going to move onto a new target for today. Who that target is will be selected sometime tonight.
Forti et Fideli ~ TL Mafia Forum: Come play with us! ~ Go Samsung KHAN, Stork, JangBi , Shine, Grape, and TurN Fighting!~ wat
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
June 05 2012 05:52 GMT
#2423
To our real medic

DON'T CLAIM!


We will convince the doubters, somehow. Kita is red and he is wriggling out of this lynch like I thought he would try to do. He had no other option and so chose the best possible claim he could. His breadcrumb makes 0 sense.

MZ, I take it you think my cases against him are shit then?
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
EchelonTee
Profile Joined February 2011
United States5261 Posts
June 05 2012 06:00 GMT
#2424
Why should the real medic not claim?

This reminds me of MrZentor's doctor claim in SoaF.
aka "neophyte". learn lots. dont judge. laugh for no reason. be nice. seek happiness. -D[9]
Meapak_Ziphh
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6786 Posts
June 05 2012 06:02 GMT
#2425
On June 05 2012 14:52 Probulous wrote:
To our real medic

DON'T CLAIM!


We will convince the doubters, somehow. Kita is red and he is wriggling out of this lynch like I thought he would try to do. He had no other option and so chose the best possible claim he could. His breadcrumb makes 0 sense.

MZ, I take it you think my cases against him are shit then?

Probulous how much have you played here?

I'm not trying to be patronizing, I'm just trying to work some stuff out and it would help to know approximately how long you've been playing.
Forti et Fideli ~ TL Mafia Forum: Come play with us! ~ Go Samsung KHAN, Stork, JangBi , Shine, Grape, and TurN Fighting!~ wat
EchelonTee
Profile Joined February 2011
United States5261 Posts
June 05 2012 06:03 GMT
#2426
EBWOP: MrZentor was the actual doc, and no one believed his claim, lynched.

The difference here is that we do have a claimed save, and kita is not a weak player. His wishywashy ness could be explained through general blue behavior.

It is complicating because this is the best fake claim that a scum kita could do, yet TL seems very prone to lynching claimed blues. Like if a blue claims, they are almost always dead lol.

I'll think about this more when I get home tonight.
aka "neophyte". learn lots. dont judge. laugh for no reason. be nice. seek happiness. -D[9]
EchelonTee
Profile Joined February 2011
United States5261 Posts
June 05 2012 06:03 GMT
#2427
On June 05 2012 15:02 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 05 2012 14:52 Probulous wrote:
To our real medic

DON'T CLAIM!


We will convince the doubters, somehow. Kita is red and he is wriggling out of this lynch like I thought he would try to do. He had no other option and so chose the best possible claim he could. His breadcrumb makes 0 sense.

MZ, I take it you think my cases against him are shit then?

Probulous how much have you played here?

I'm not trying to be patronizing, I'm just trying to work some stuff out and it would help to know approximately how long you've been playing.

He has the same experience level as I do.
aka "neophyte". learn lots. dont judge. laugh for no reason. be nice. seek happiness. -D[9]
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
June 05 2012 06:05 GMT
#2428
On June 05 2012 15:00 EchelonTee wrote:
Why should the real medic not claim? This reminds me of MrZentor's doctor claim in SoaF.


Because all that does is out the actual medic. I don't believe Kita's claim for one second. It is way too convenient and doesn't match with his play. He has been scummy scummy scum all game and now that his head is on the chopping block he can wriggle out by claiming the most convenient role yet.

At worst he gets to out our medic, at best he gets off and gets major town credit. It's win, super win if he is scum. If he is town he would have shown something before now. Almost the entire thread has voted for him at some point this game, but suddenly now he is town?

I repeat medic, don't claim. If we still have over 24hrs until lynch so if it looks like he won't be lynched closer to time, we can chat about it then. I'm fine with looking at other scummy people, we need to anyway, but don't claim until you absolutely have to.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
June 05 2012 06:11 GMT
#2429
On June 05 2012 15:02 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 05 2012 14:52 Probulous wrote:
To our real medic

DON'T CLAIM!


We will convince the doubters, somehow. Kita is red and he is wriggling out of this lynch like I thought he would try to do. He had no other option and so chose the best possible claim he could. His breadcrumb makes 0 sense.

MZ, I take it you think my cases against him are shit then?

Probulous how much have you played here?

I'm not trying to be patronizing, I'm just trying to work some stuff out and it would help to know approximately how long you've been playing.


I've played enough to know a bad claim when I see one. Kita is red. VE knew it, WBG knew it, I know it. He is mafia and he needs to swing.

I have written more words about him than the rest of my posts puts together and I still can't convince you guys. I don't know what I am doing wrong but it should be plain to see. Everyone, almost everyobody had him as their number one scum target at some point this game, but a badly crumbed convenient medic claim is suddenly credible?

Put yourself in Kita's shoes, why would you not make this claim if you were scum?
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
kitaman27 *
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States9245 Posts
June 05 2012 06:21 GMT
#2430
On June 05 2012 15:05 Probulous wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 05 2012 15:00 EchelonTee wrote:
Why should the real medic not claim? This reminds me of MrZentor's doctor claim in SoaF.


Because all that does is out the actual medic. I don't believe Kita's claim for one second. It is way too convenient and doesn't match with his play. He has been scummy scummy scum all game and now that his head is on the chopping block he can wriggle out by claiming the most convenient role yet.


It is impossible for myself to wrigggle out of the lynch as scum with my medic claim. The real medic would being able to counter-claim and get me lynched.

On June 05 2012 15:05 Probulous wrote:
At worst he gets to out our medic, at best he gets off and gets major town credit. It's win, super win if he is scum. If he is town he would have shown something before now. Almost the entire thread has voted for him at some point this game, but suddenly now he is town?


You're "at best" scenario doesn't make any sense. They only way I'm getting off with major town cred is if I'm not counter-claimed, which means I'm town.

On June 05 2012 15:11 Probulous wrote:
Everyone, almost everyobody had him as their number one scum target at some point this game, but a badly crumbed convenient medic claim is suddenly credible?


That is a false statement. You are the only player who has actually completed a case against me. The rest have not provided any reasoning. Meapak was unable to come up with a case, VE was unable to come up with a case until it was necessary for his own survival. Bugs took a guess without ever providing reasoning. We have VE crumbing his ability with an upside down question mark, yet my post with my role name, an image of my role, and the word breadcrumb bolded is considered badly crumbed? We don't even need to rely on the crumb, its a confirmable claim.

On June 05 2012 15:05 Probulous wrote:
I'm fine with looking at other scummy people, we need to anyway, but don't claim until you absolutely have to.


Do share.
I'm better than dirt. Well, most kinds of dirt. I mean not that fancy store bought dirt. That stuffs loaded with nutrients. I... I can't compete with that stuff.
Meapak_Ziphh
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6786 Posts
June 05 2012 06:25 GMT
#2431
someone please enlighten me how a 1/1 trade is good for scum right now?

Forti et Fideli ~ TL Mafia Forum: Come play with us! ~ Go Samsung KHAN, Stork, JangBi , Shine, Grape, and TurN Fighting!~ wat
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
June 05 2012 06:27 GMT
#2432
On June 05 2012 15:25 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: someone please enlighten me how a 1/1 trade is good for scum right now?


If we have scum lined up for a lynch, then a 1:1 is better than a 0:1 from their point of view, right?
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
kitaman27 *
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States9245 Posts
June 05 2012 06:30 GMT
#2433
On June 05 2012 15:27 Probulous wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 05 2012 15:25 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: someone please enlighten me how a 1/1 trade is good for scum right now?


If we have scum lined up for a lynch, then a 1:1 is better than a 0:1 from their point of view, right?


Even better for scum is a 3:0, which is what would happen with my lynch.

You still haven't thanked me Meapak. Show some gratitude.
I'm better than dirt. Well, most kinds of dirt. I mean not that fancy store bought dirt. That stuffs loaded with nutrients. I... I can't compete with that stuff.
Hyaach
Profile Blog Joined August 2009
Singapore1737 Posts
June 05 2012 06:41 GMT
#2434
Kita's breadcrumb isnt just one. its neatly placed over the thread with reference to character. That's a major townie point. VE's crumb was just plain wierd.

I would like to vote Manason.
All game, his remain neutral with only two targets. Zealos and Kita.
Zealos had a target marked on him since day 1. While no one was really going after Kita except VE, Manason had him as a target. Throughout the play. his been sheeping the easiest case without providing any reads on anybody. Its in his gut feeling that Kita is scum but never really got around to post his case after promising to do so 2 times.

Then with VE.
Didn't believe VE was scum.
Then suspicious of VE as scum because of VE's crumb and jumping all over the place.
Wanted VE to push for a Kita case
Vote VE because I think you may be bad town and i rather lynch you then no lynch
then came back full circle and says I believe VE was town and i never wanted to lynch him.

Does roleblocker gets notified if they successfully blocked an night action
Thailand is my new obsession
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
June 05 2012 06:52 GMT
#2435
I didn't want to do this but it seems that my hand is being forced. I am Dibs the detective. Here is my post in the thread. I checked Hassybaby last night and he returned Earth, I checked Kitaman the night before and he returned Not Earth.

On May 30 2012 10:03 Probulous wrote:
Hi everybody!

I am counting on people giving me a break to read the thread, so don't expect too much from me immediately. At least I am replacing in fairly early into the game.

It's about time I won a game so I will be putting in the effort here. The roster looks good and from my initial read some of the vets are looking pretty townie so we have no reason not to win.

Note: To help get an idea on people's thoughts, please ask me some specific questions. It is always hard when catching up to get a feel for people because the timing of posts is hard to work out. So fire away and I will do my best.


This is why I have tunnelled him so hard and now people are getting cold feet. I will not let him get away from this lynch, hence my claim.

I purposefully did not breadcrumb my Kita check because he was clearly a target for a possible framer. Instead I tried to push the thread to look elsewhere that night (supersoft and others). In addition I had mentioned earlier in the day that the best way to crumb is just before deadline so people can find it. I thought it stupid to do that for my Kita check in case it outed me. Last night in my last post I labelled three people (along with Hassy as number 1) as mafia target. This was my crumb in the hope that a framer would not know which one to pick.

The reason I didn't want the doc to claim is two fold.

Firstly it should have been clear that Kita is scum and so we don't need to expose the Doc. This no longer appears to be true.

Secondly, by outing myself, we can play a little follow the cop with mafia having to try and find the medic. I know this puts other lead townies at risk but in return we get a clear read in the morning. There is no more roleblocker to worry about. If I soak up two bullets, so be it. Now about sanity, it seems that in a gesture of goodwill, Greymist told me that I checked Toad night 1 and got Earth. With the red check, I know I am a regular DT.

We lynch the Kitaman27.

Finally I am sorry guys but it is 4:50pm and I am about to leave work. I wanted to do this before I left so you can think about it whilst I sleep. I will be on tomorow morning (my time). Think about this carefully and do the right thing.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
EchelonTee
Profile Joined February 2011
United States5261 Posts
June 05 2012 07:00 GMT
#2436
Has it been three nights? What was your third check?
aka "neophyte". learn lots. dont judge. laugh for no reason. be nice. seek happiness. -D[9]
Hyaach
Profile Blog Joined August 2009
Singapore1737 Posts
June 05 2012 07:00 GMT
#2437
Toad Kita Hassy
Thailand is my new obsession
Hyaach
Profile Blog Joined August 2009
Singapore1737 Posts
June 05 2012 07:07 GMT
#2438
ah fk. i just digged myself into a hole.
lmao.

start using excel to play hyaach....
Thailand is my new obsession
kitaman27 *
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States9245 Posts
June 05 2012 07:13 GMT
#2439
Seriously? You don't want the medic to claim, but you're fine claiming detective, which is by far a more important role? Having the medic counter-claim was a 100% foolproof plan.

Claiming detective is full of problems. You don't even bother to consider a framer for a second? Out of all the players in this game, who is most likely to be framed night two after pushing a VE lynch? Meapak, bugs, and toad had already been confirmed town. Wigggles was already likely red. Of course I'm the most likely framer target.

Furthermore, its possible that you are a lyncher targeting Professor Membrane. It doesnt matter if your claim is made up on the spot if it gets me lynched.

How do I know Meapak isn''t a vet if I didn't protect him. As scum, I'm not giving up information that has a 50% chance to invalidate my claim right off the bat.

If there exists a medic who protected Meapak night one, claim now. I guarantee you don't exist.
If there exists a Professor Membrane in this game, claim now. I guarantee you don't exist.

I'm better than dirt. Well, most kinds of dirt. I mean not that fancy store bought dirt. That stuffs loaded with nutrients. I... I can't compete with that stuff.
EchelonTee
Profile Joined February 2011
United States5261 Posts
June 05 2012 07:14 GMT
#2440
Ah derp on my part.

N2 framer is possible, but less likely than N3 frame.I believe probes claim, and.it's quite likely kita is fake claiming, but there is the small possibility that we are about to be totally fucked.

however, likelihood is that we've got something good.

We lynch kita.
aka "neophyte". learn lots. dont judge. laugh for no reason. be nice. seek happiness. -D[9]
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