EPTOn June 05 2012 16:07 Hyaach wrote:
ah fk. i just digged myself into a hole.
lmao.
start using excel to play hyaach....
ah fk. i just digged myself into a hole.
lmao.
start using excel to play hyaach....
What?
TL Mafia LV - Page 123
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EchelonTee
United States5260 Posts
What? | ||
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Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
I never watched the show so I don't know what you are talking about? The only possible explanation with you as town would be that you were framed night 2. I doubt that is the case given the rest of your posting. The only people you have pushed as serious lynches are town (VE and Hassy). From phone. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On June 05 2012 16:24 Probulous wrote: Who is Prof Membrane? I never watched the show so I don't know what you are talking about? That is my role. I breadcrumbed it on day two, which is 100% clear and it perfectly fits my medic claim. I'm also the father of you and VE. We're such a happy family On June 05 2012 16:24 Probulous wrote: The only possible explanation with you as town would be that you were framed night 2. I doubt that is the case given the rest of your posting. The only people you have pushed as serious lynches are town (VE and Hassy). Did you delibrately exclude my case against Wiggles? On June 05 2012 16:14 EchelonTee wrote: Ah derp on my part. N2 framer is possible, but less likely than N3 frame.I believe probes claim, and.it's quite likely kita is fake claiming, but there is the small possibility that we are about to be totally fucked. I don't understand. I was checked on N2. Answer me this, if the framer exists, which is extremely likely, who is the player most likely to be framed n2? We can eliminate this possibility with following the medic-claim plan. I've taken a list of the remaining players and removed toad, the mason, prob, the claimed dt, meapak (he cannot protect himself), and four random players representing the identities of the scum team. This gives them a pool of seven players that could possibly be medic. With a mafia role cop in play, as many as 3 other players cannot be the medic. This would leave a pool of only four players that could possibly be the medic. With the lynch and two kp at night, their days are limited as it is. In exchange for following the "medic-claim plan", we are able to prevent a mislynch and two night hits at the cost of the medic's identity, which as I have shown above, the mafia already has a good idea where he could be. (In fact, they know exactly where he is :p) Prob, earlier you mentioned your best case worst case scenarios. Here is an accurate representation: Worst-case: The medic gets mislynched, the detective gets shot, Meapak gets shot, and we've nearly thrown the game away. Best-case: There is no-counter claim, I'm confirmed as town, and we save ourselves an entire cycle and three kills. Clearly the identity of the medic is worth the exchange of an entire cycle. Let me ask one question to the thread, if you could pick one target to be framed as scum on n2, who would you choose? I think its more than obvious. I've presented a plan that confirms my alignment, don't throw this away. This is so frusturating -_- | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
If we lynch a secondary scum suspect other than myself today, I can prove to the thread that both Prob and an additional townie cannot die while I live. It's possible that the mafia team will double stack prob and then push my lynch the following cycle, but that opens up the risk of a watcher or tracker, which is potentially game ending for them. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On June 05 2012 16:37 kitaman27 wrote: With the roleblocker dead, its likely that the scum team cannot stop my save. Therefore, if I protect prob, it takes both of their kp to take him out. If we lynch a secondary scum suspect other than myself today, I can prove to the thread that both Prob and an additional townie cannot die while I live. It's possible that the mafia team will double stack prob and then push my lynch the following cycle, but that opens up the risk of a watcher or tracker, which is potentially game ending for them. Furthermore, it puts the mafia team in a situation where they have to decide between double stacking the dt, while allowing players who are confirmed town, such as toad or Meapak (or hassybaby?), to survive to late game, or shooting the confirmed town players, while risking additional dt checks. It's a lose-lose for them. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Additionally, if I was scum, why would I claim hours into the cycle? I would wait until moments before the lynch, similar to my fake tracker claim in LotR mafia, to shut down discussion for the entire cycle and take advantage of the confusion to live another day. As scum, the fake claim would seal my fate. I'm 100% going to be counter-claimed if there is another medic. Why would I seal my own fate without waiting out the cycle, pushing a mislynch, and determining if the claim was really necessary to save my life. There was a four hour period between the medic claim and the dt claim, where the true medic could claim. During this time, I'm pretty sure nearly every player has had a chance to read the thread. They had an opportunity to confirm themselves town and confirm me as scum. No player counter-claimed. That is because I am the true medic. I fail to see how a n2 frame is unlikely. If a framer exists, I'm almost certainly the frame target. I'm likely to be checked by detectives and I just finished pushing a mislynch. The medic-claim plan confirms my alignment. Please don't throw this game away  | ||
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EchelonTee
United States5260 Posts
Be home in a bit. | ||
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Meapak_Ziphh
United States6786 Posts
I just got done with your filter and I don't think you're lying about your role, however I'm not convinced kita is either. I do see kita as probably the best target for a frame. Think about it, WBG, Toad, and I all got confirmed really fast. Wiggles is mister lurker, ET has been flitting around, what better target to frame than kita? Many people have called his play out so he's a great choice to frame. Since it's 1am I'm going to sleep on this so I don't make any decisions rashly, I have no desire to repeat the VE disaster  Also if there is a medic out there then CC ONLY IF YOU CAN SHOW A SOLID BREADCRUMB TO YOUR SAVE AND YOUR NIGHT PROTS the last thing we want is for scum to CC and have kita lynched because the thread doesn't like him and would believe just about any CC that gets posted. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On June 05 2012 17:15 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: well probulous this has provided an interesting twist. I just got done with your filter and I don't think you're lying about your role, however I'm not convinced kita is either. I do see kita as probably the best target for a frame. Think about it, WBG, Toad, and I all got confirmed really fast. Wiggles is mister lurker, ET has been flitting around, what better target to frame than kita? Many people have called his play out so he's a great choice to frame. Since it's 1am I'm going to sleep on this so I don't make any decisions rashly, I have no desire to repeat the VE disaster Also if there is a medic out there then CC ONLY IF YOU CAN SHOW A SOLID BREADCRUMB TO YOUR SAVE AND YOUR NIGHT PROTS the last thing we want is for scum to CC and have kita lynched because the thread doesn't like him and would believe just about any CC that gets posted. Just read both claims and the ensuing responses and my head hurts a bit. There's an unaccounted for save Day 1. Either kitaman performed the save or he did not. If he did not then someone else did and they should claim and we lynch kita. I do not understand Probulous' view that this would simply out the real medic. kitaman is correct in that potentially lynching a townie is a MUCH bigger downside than revealing the medic. The only thing that gives me pause is MZ's post here about how scum can counterclaim. What do you suggest, or what do you think the scenario is, if the medic did not breadcrumb? That they keep quiet and we go ahead and lynch kita after all? | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On June 05 2012 15:41 Hyaach wrote: Kita's breadcrumb isnt just one. its neatly placed over the thread with reference to character. That's a major townie point. VE's crumb was just plain wierd. I would like to vote Manason. All game, his remain neutral with only two targets. Zealos and Kita. Zealos had a target marked on him since day 1. While no one was really going after Kita except VE, Manason had him as a target. Throughout the play. his been sheeping the easiest case without providing any reads on anybody. Its in his gut feeling that Kita is scum but never really got around to post his case after promising to do so 2 times. Then with VE. Didn't believe VE was scum. Then suspicious of VE as scum because of VE's crumb and jumping all over the place. Wanted VE to push for a Kita case Vote VE because I think you may be bad town and i rather lynch you then no lynch then came back full circle and says I believe VE was town and i never wanted to lynch him. Does roleblocker gets notified if they successfully blocked an night action why is a breadcrumb something that's townish? Mafia can easily plan ahead and just breadcrumb some bullshit ahead of time... | ||
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Hyaach
Singapore1737 Posts
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Hyaach
Singapore1737 Posts
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
If someone like VE, WBG or I make a breadcrumb that's a nulltell because we're all very active as mafia or town no matter what. If someone like Kenpachi does a breadcrumb you'd probably better believe that shit because there's not way this dude would do the extrawork. Given how much spare time kita had because everyone said he's mafia from the start of d1 that's not looking to good for him, So yeah, the breadcrumb should really be considered a null. | ||
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GreYMisT
United States6736 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
1) there is no counter-claim, so kita is town medic because of the Meapak save 2) there is a counter-claim, with two options A- real medic is counterclaiming, we lynch kita and he flips scum B- scum are counterclaiming, we lynch kita who flips town then we lynch the scum In other words there are 3 outcomes, the first being we avoid lynching the town medic, the second being kita scum is lynched but a medic is outed, the third being we lynch our town medic but we get a confirmed scum lynch. Apparently it is the second outcome that Probulous is wary of. In other words it all boils down to the question: are people so sure that kitaman is scum that they are convinced he cannot be telling the truth, i.e. we lynch kita scum but we don't out a medic. I'm not sure enough to take this chance. kita is 3rd on my potential scumlist (behind manason, papa - post to come on those 2 later), so the chance that we're lynching our doctor is a bit too high. If you're the real medic you should counterclaim. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
HOWEVER, I think we could use more time to work this out and I'd rather not see an immediate counterclaim. The thread will get messy if we're actively discussing the medic situation and other targets, but to some extent, this is bothering me. On June 05 2012 11:15 kitaman27 wrote: With so few people willing to listen to anything I have to say, it seems unlikely that I will be argue myself out of a lynch today. Even if I am able, it will be a waste of discussion and I'd rather have a full day to go after actual scum targets than defend myself. I am a Medic. Did you really think that this wouldn't become a major topic of discussion and would dominate at least a good chunk of the day cycle? I'm having a tough time believing that you thought there wouldn't be any discussion. Assuming you make good on your promise to come back and post thoughts on a few players, I'm interested in seeing them. Manason and papapanda still looking kind of scummy, and hassybaby and maju both looking kind of mute. | ||
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Hassybaby
United Kingdom10823 Posts
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On June 06 2012 02:19 austinmcc wrote: Are scum required to expend all KP each night? Nope. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
We've had two blue claims so far today, and scum has yet to shoot at you or MZ, so I don't think there's a large risk in outing another member of the circle. | ||
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