[TSL4] Point Ranking Update - Week 4

Things are really getting crazy over in the TSL qualifiers as there are only three qualifiers remaining - two for NA/EU and one for KR. Only having one qualifier on KR drastically simplifies the possibilities for that server, but having two qualifiers remaining on NA/EU means a whole heap of things can happen. Indeed, it was worked out that not even LaLush (the current #1) is mathematically safe. Having watched the TSL qualifiers very closely over the past few weeks, and having experienced the TSL3 qualifiers, I believe that the magic number for qualification on the NA-EU ladder will be 163 and 121 for the KR ladder. Players should be aiming for anything above these numbers to nab a spot in the TSL. So what does that mean for the ladders?

EU/NA Rankings			Change
1st	Mill.LaLuSh	193	--
2nd	aTn.DarkForce	185	--
3rd	AL.BabyKnight	181	13
4th	d.SeleCT	171	4

These four players, I would say, are more or less qualified for the TSL. It would take an insane sequence of events for them to become eliminated. After the first qualifier next week I expect that a number of these will be mathematically ensured to advance. I would also guess that people will be posting about this when it happens so watch the forums for that! LaLuSh momentarily lost the #1 spot last week after DarKFoRcE nudged ahead in the EU qualifier, but LaLush responded with a Ro32 finish in the NA qualifier which put him back on top. BabyKnight rocketed to the top after coming runner up to Beastyqt in the NA qualifier, and SeleCT had a good week with a semifinal and a Ro32 finish which pushed him into the top four.

EU/NA Rankings			Change
5th	d.Bischu	163	--
6th	infs.JonnyREcco	153	5
7th	mouz.HasuObs	152	1

To break the 163 point barrier all three players need to score points in one of the two qualifiers. So while they aren't safe right now, a Ro32 finish should secure them a spot in the TSL. Bischu currently sits on 163, so might not even have to do anything to qualify anyway. Indeed, I think he is the player that people will be looking to beat - hence the 163 point threshold. HasuObs and JonnyREcco are both players that are capable of scoring points from the remaining two qualifiers. After all, Hasu and JonnyRecco picked up a Ro8 and a Ro4 finish respectively last week - a Ro32 finish is well within their grasp.

EU/NA Rankings			Change
8th	MorroW	124	1
T-8th	mycerion	124	5
T-8th	Liquid`Sheth	124	5
11th	GoldenLighT	122	37

These players are the one who need to get a Ro8 finish (or two Ro16's) to be safe. First up we have MorroW, Mycerion and Sheth all tied for 8th place. Morrow made a Ro16 last week which has kept him inside the top 8 this week, despite dropping a place. Last season Morrow left it right to the last moment to qualify (with a finals finish), so he's in a much better place than he was then. Mycerion and Sheth failed to score any points last week, perhaps the increased community awareness of the peoples champion (mycerion) is getting to him? Sheth, on the other hand, should be even more determined to make the TSL after teammate TaeJa qualified last week. Golden rounds out this group of players and rockets into a good position after a second placing in the EU qualifier last week. He's also looked quite good in the Homestory Cup where he has recently made the top 8. While he currently resides outside of qualification at the moment, he certainly is in a good position to make that final push for points and steal qualification spot.

EU/NA Rankings			Change
12th	MajOr	121	4
13th	aTn.Cloud	116	5
14th	KawaiiRiceLighT	103	2
15th	FXO.LoWeLy	102	1

This group of players will be looking to score a Ro4 or a Ro8+Ro16 finish to secure a spot in the TSL. Major added a Ro16 finish to his total last week, which got him off 100 points. He could also qualify with two Ro16 finishes, so he's in pretty good shape at the moment. As one of the strongest Terrans outside of Korea, he is very capable of snatching enough points to get through. Meanwhile ClouD and KawaiiRice have been steadily added points throughout the TSL. Both are capable of getting a Ro8+Ro16 finish across the next two qualifiers, although with a highly competitive turnout expected, it might be more difficult than previous weeks.

LoWeLy has been causing upsets in the bracket week after week with his 'slightly' unpredictable style. While he has certainly exceeded all expectations thus far, he will need keep causing upsets to get into the TSL. When the reality-hammer comes out though, if any player is going to make the TSL out of this group it should be Major, indeed it's quite surprising that the other three players have done so well thus far. With everyone going all out next week, Major seems like the only one that could weather the storm - although crazier things have happened in the TSL.

EU/NA Rankings			Change
16th	MANGO.Pink	100	8
17th	ESCGoOdy	94	3
18th	ROG.elfi	92	33
19th	Acer.Bly	84	8
20th	Empire|Happy	83	3
21th	Type.DBS	82	6
T-21th	EG.HuK	82	2
T-21th	FnaticRC.ToD	82	2

This next (rather large) group of players needs to get two Ro8 finishes, or a Ro4 and a Ro16, to secure a spot in the TSL. After a surprising first week, Pink still hasn't been able to add any points to his total. 100 points does put him in an okay-ish position, based on the last three weeks it doesn't seem like he's going to qualify. GoOdy has been steadily adding points, like Cloud and Kawaii, but hasn't broken the 100 point mark yet. In order to get the required points he'll have to have a ridiculously good week, and since it's Goody - you can't rule him out of making something happen. The Finnish anomaly, elfi, stepped up last week with a Ro32 and a Ro4 result. This has propelled him into a position where something might happen. And as with Goody, you just can't predict how he will go in the remaining qualifiers.

After upsetting Huk in the NA qualifier last week (an upset which included a spine crawler rush at that...), Bly finished top 8 which has put him into contention coming into the final week. Bly is a self-confessed cheesy player and has had some consistency issues throughout the TSL qualifiers. As such, Bly may have left things too late. Getting back to back points (and big points at that) seems a little out of reach of him. Happy and DBS have also exceeded many expectations. Neither really made a splash at HSC (aside from Happy showing off his insane lategame and casting skills) but if either can get a lucky bracket it's quite possible they could make up the points they need to get into the TSL.

And lastly from this group, two heavy hitters that you know and love, HuK and ToD. Both of these fan favourites have really struggled in the TSL qualifiers so far - except for the week they made the semifinal. Both keep on losing to players that we normally wouldn't expect them to lose to. As such, I'm sure neither is satisfied with their performance so far. With that said, we know that these guys have the potential to get the required points to qualify (if not win a qualifier themselves). We'll all be eagerly watching these two this coming week to see how they shape up.

EU/NA Rankings			Change
24th	d.KiLLeR	71
25th	Type|Real	65	2
26th	d.Bling	63	4
27th	RoX.KIS.Fraer	62	6
T-27th	eXe.Fuzer	62	24
T-27th	iM.MaFia	62	5
T-27th	WW.Ziktomini	62	5

This group of players are the players who need a Ro2 (or better) to put themselves into position to qualify. Really, these players haven't been able to gain any kind of traction in the tournament and are really hoping for a miracle to get themselves in. KiLLeR tops this lot after a semifinal and Ro32 last week. These comprise his only point finishes thus far. ReaL has underperformed in the qualifiers so far (for his standards, anyway) and only ranks so highly because of his repeated Ro32 finishes - he still lacks a Ro8 finish or better. BlinG has also been steadily adding points, but has a Ro8 and two Ro32's to his name. Fraer might be the strongest player from this group, but thus far he has only managed a Ro8 and a Ro16. Fuzer and MaFia are outsiders in this tournament, with neither having a substantial reputation in the tournament scene. Like Fraer, their points have come from a Ro8 and a Ro16. Ziktomini, the WCS: UK champ, also lies in this group of players but is a long way off from his compatriot JonnyRecco.

Let's bring out the reality-hammer once again. From this group of players the only ones that might be capable of a Ro2 or better are Fraer and Ziktomini. Ziktomini really proved himself at WCS: UK and impressed a lot of people in the process. From his play there he might just be able to make something happen (particularly if he gets a Zerg heavy bracket). Fraer has been performing quite well online in recent months and could possibly make some magic happen. But he will really need to be playing his best this week for it to happen.



There are still a few big names that haven't made their mark on the qualifiers so far (for various reasons). The first one that comes to mind is the mighty Stephano (21). The one qualifier he did participate in he looked untouchable, until he was pulled away by another tournament. If Stephano comes out to play he seems to be a likely candidate for one of the two remaining instant qualification spots. DIMAGA (11) is another player who we expected to be well up in the rankings. However he hasn't been able to gain any traction across the qualifiers (and running into tournament winners in the Ro64 doesn't help either). Grubby (32) has been slugging it out each week and also hasn't found much luck. As the WCS: Netherlands champion its plausible that he could grab one of the two qualifications spots.

Socke (33) just hasn't had a good series of qualifiers. This is unfortunate because we know he is a good player. He himself doesn't feel that he is good tournament shape, so it doesn't look like he will make it this season. LucifroN (33) has looked really good in other tournaments lately, and with his brother VortiX qualifying, I'm sure he is eager to do the same. But with only 33 points that might be a very tough task. Titan (41) could possibly make something happen as well, since he has proven to be a bit of an online beast in recent months. Still, with only 41 points he may have left things a bit too late.

KR Rankings			Change
T-1st	LG-IMFirst	142	2
1st	ST_Hack	132	1
3rd	LG-IMSeed	121	1
4th	SlayerS_CoCa	112	3
5th	TSL_HyuN	103	1
6th	Genius	100
7th	ST_Squirtle	92	--
8th	TSL_RevivaL	84	3
9th	MvP.Lure	81	4
10th	SlayerS_Miya	73	4
11th	ZeNExLife	71	4
T-11th	SlayerS_Puzzle	71	4
T-11th	TSL_Shine	71	29
14th	LG-IMLosirA	63	6
15th	LG-IMYoDa	62	3
16th	AnnYeongPrime	60	3
T-16th	Liquid`Hero	60

As much as I would love to write a huge essay about the Korean ladder, I just can't do it. With only one qualifier remaining things are dramatically simpler than the NA-EU case. While First isn't mathematically guaranteed to advance, it would take the perfect series of events for him to be eliminated. A similarly unlikely scenario would have to occur for Seed and Hack to not qualify either. Indeed, the magic number for the Korean ladder is likely to be 121, so anyone with 120 points or less should be aiming for 121 to advance (although this might be blown out of the water depending on where the Ro8 points go). Given the difficulty of the Korean qualifier, getting to that threshold is an impossible task for a number of players.

CoCa and HyuN have both made it past the 100 point barrier without a finals finish. This is good for them as their incredible consistency might very well carry them through to the main event. As little as a Ro16 finish should be enough to secure either of them a spot in the TSL. Genius has only recently been able to score points (and a big score at that!) but if he doesn't score this week its highly likely he won't make it (or in the best case scenario, there will be a play off for the spot).

Squirtle, RevivaL and Lure will need a Ro8 finish (at the very least) to get themselves through. Squirtle, in particular, is a likely candidate to make a big finish so keep your eyes on him this week. Miya, Life, Puzzle, Shine, LosirA and YoDa will be gunning for the remaining two semifinal points. Without a semifinal finish it would be almost impossible to advance (even with a Ro8). Life, Shine and Puzzle all have made semifinals before, and its quite possible they could do it again - but it won't be easy.

Lastly we have AnnYeong and HerO who have sole semifinal finishes to their name. Both of them will need a semifinal finish (at least) to make it. I hear that Hero will be participating in the qualifier from the US this week, and that might be a huge barrier for him. In this case, its quite likely he will be absent from this TSL.

Of course, there is one direct qualification and one 100 point spot remaining. Anyone with 21 points or more who grabs that 100 point spot could jump straight into the TSL - that encompasses players like Maru, DRG, Leenock, Jjakji and PartinG. One name that is missing from this list is MKP, him along with the likes of NesTea will be gunning for the direct qualification spot as they don't have enough points for a second placing to guarantee them entrance.

So let's have a look at the team breakdown of the top 16.

Team	Top 6	Top 16	Qualified
LG-IM	2	4	0
Slayers	1	3	0
TSL	1	3	0
Startale	1	2	1
MVP	0	1	0
Prime	0	1	1
Liquid	0	1	2
ZeNEX	0	1	0
NSH	0	0	1

NHS was the big loser last week, with both of their players in the top 20 being unable to score points, meaning they both dropped out of contention this week. FXO and Col.'s presence also disappeared as Whale and Killer (respectively) were unable to post points. Liquid` finally makes itself known, with Hero in the top 16 and Taeja and Ret qualified. But the big story this week is the dominance of LG-IM who have a whopping four players within the top 16 - two within the top 6.

With no time left to spare, it will be essential for every competitor for the TSL to perform their best - no matter the server they play. Remember that with two instant qualification spots in NA-EU and one instant qualification in KR anyone, absolutely anyone, could come out of nowhere and qualify for the TSL. Who will get these spots? And who will finish at the top of the ladders? To find out you'll have to join us this week as the TSL qualifiers conclude.

You can find more information about all invites, qualifiers, and full rankings in the TSL forum.