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On December 24 2021 00:01 meadbert wrote:Show nested quote +On December 23 2021 04:24 InfCereal wrote:
Comparing MaxPax to serral is disingenuous. Serral is much better than MaxPax.
When you make the comparison to solar, reynor, etc. It's much more comparable. I can see MaxPax taking series off of them, even rogue/dark depending on the day. (and I say "even", because rogue/dark have a history of overperforming. If they played 100 series, I don't think the win/loss would be more than 5-8% in either direction)
Serral is genuinely an outlier. You think Serral is outlier because he is 150 ELO ahead of Reynor but he is over 400 ELO ahead of anyone playing the Protoss race. Even Reynor is 254 ELO higher than any Protoss player. Dark is 228 ELO higher than any Protoss player. Rogue is 197 ELO higher than any Protoss player. Do you see the problem here? What you call an outlier is actually the entirety of high level professional ZvP right now. If you don't like me comparing to MaxPax I can compare to someone else. Trap is 442 ELO behind Serral. If you drop down another 442 ELO you get to Cham. If someone told you it was balanced and not to worry because Cham is the great hope to beat MaxPax, Zest, Parting and Trap would you feel like there was something wrong? Would you lack confidence that Cham would take that best of 7 off of Trap? Would lack hope that it even might happen? That is what it is like to watch high level ZvP right now.
So I suggested not comparing people to serral, and your brilliant retort is to compare everyone to serral?
I don't know how to break this to you, but Rogue vs MaxPax statically gives Rogue a 1.59% advantage over maxpax. Their ZvP ratings are 23 apart.
What was that? Dark vs MaxPax?
4.55% in favor of Dark. 68 Rating difference.
The highest rated ZvP players are
Serral (3468)
Reynor (3173)
Dark (3135)
Rogue (3090)
The highest rated PvZ players are
MaxPax (3067)
Showtime (3039)
Zest (2991)
Trap (2947)
These are almost identical, because Serral is an anomaly. You _can_ say zerg has an advantage. You absolutely can. The best zergs are rated higher than the best protosses in the matchup, by like 5%.
But you can't use serral as the comparison. He's not even in the same realm.
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So at least own that your position is that we have no hope and we should stop watching the game. I agree.
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France12911 Posts
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My dude meadbert is there saying "Okay we have no hope look at Serral's mmr" and the dude who stopped watching the game because protoss was too OP for zerg answers "You can't compare anyone to Serral he has too much MMR" That's literally the reason why meadbert is saying there is no hope Poopi can you follow this reasoning it seems quite simple I think you ought to be able to follow it
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An neeb probably won more than all the other zergs in 2017 too still nobody thought the mu was fine 
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Northern Ireland26427 Posts
The statistics are, odd, as good a job as the Aligulac crew do, disparate regions and the added complication of weeklies adding a lot of noise.
Just in terms of the eye test Rogue and Dark feel a little deflated rating wise, Maxpax and Showtime a little inflated.
I shudder to think what Serral’s ELO would look like if he took a mind to try-harding the EU weeklies.
I think you have a combination of factors at play, Serral does the Serral thing and basically shows up at tournaments with tough opposition, brings his A game or close to it and
Dark and Rogue too, mostly.
I imagine the GSL format drags ELO down versus WCS, whether Serral actually needs it to progress to playoffs, he’s usually going 6-1 or 7-0 or whatever every group phase, and sweep a fair amount of those.
Assuming Rogue and Dark don’t actually lose, which does happen on occasion you can make playoffs going 2-1 in matches and 4-4 in sets, and just double that in the old Ro32 format.
I imagine participating regularly in weeklies can have an inflating/deflating effect depending on if they’re your primary focus or not too.
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France12911 Posts
On December 24 2021 03:21 darklycid wrote:An neeb probably won more than all the other zergs in 2017 too still nobody thought the mu was fine
No Rogue and soO won more than Neeb that year but what is your point about 2017?
The thing is that while Serral has a very high aligulac rating, it does not necessarily translates into tournaments wins / placings. And that's the case for several players on aligulac: Rogue wins more than his rating suggests, etc.
We are running circles but if you only want to watch starcraft 2 if your race wins BlizzCon/Katowice, then even terrans would not watch since those tournaments have been dominated by zergs for years. Sc2 is still worth watching though
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On December 24 2021 03:33 Poopi wrote:Show nested quote +On December 24 2021 03:21 darklycid wrote:An neeb probably won more than all the other zergs in 2017 too still nobody thought the mu was fine No Rogue and soO won more than Neeb that year but what is your point about 2017? The thing is that while Serral has a very high aligulac rating, it does not necessarily translates into tournaments wins / placings. And that's the case for several players on aligulac: Rogue wins more than his rating suggests, etc. We are running circles but if you only want to watch starcraft 2 if your race wins BlizzCon/Katowice, then even terrans would not watch since those tournaments have been dominated by zergs for years. Sc2 is still worth watching though
Because there are two terrans who have a reasonable shot of winning any tournament they enter.
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On December 24 2021 03:39 Nebuchad wrote:Show nested quote +On December 24 2021 03:33 Poopi wrote:On December 24 2021 03:21 darklycid wrote:An neeb probably won more than all the other zergs in 2017 too still nobody thought the mu was fine No Rogue and soO won more than Neeb that year but what is your point about 2017? The thing is that while Serral has a very high aligulac rating, it does not necessarily translates into tournaments wins / placings. And that's the case for several players on aligulac: Rogue wins more than his rating suggests, etc. We are running circles but if you only want to watch starcraft 2 if your race wins BlizzCon/Katowice, then even terrans would not watch since those tournaments have been dominated by zergs for years. Sc2 is still worth watching though Because there are two terrans who have a reasonable shot of winning any tournament they enter.
Pretty much recently watching as toss isnt fun, also because pvz is garbage af to watch currently.
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On December 24 2021 01:29 InfCereal wrote:
I don't know how to break this to you, but Rogue vs MaxPax statically gives Rogue a 1.59% advantage over maxpax. Their ZvP ratings are 23 apart.
Yes, I am aware that the 4th best Zerg is favored over the best Protoss. I am also aware that the 5th best Zerg (Solar) is also favored over the best Protoss as well. I realize you see this as a feature and not a bug, but to most of us, this is the bug!
If Serral were head and shoulders above everyone and then Maru was 2nd and Trap was 3rd then we would have a Serral problem. That is not what is going on here.
When there are 5 Zergs better than the best Protoss then it is not just a Serral problem. It is a Protoss is underpowered at the highest levels problem.
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France12911 Posts
On December 24 2021 04:44 meadbert wrote:Show nested quote +On December 24 2021 01:29 InfCereal wrote:
I don't know how to break this to you, but Rogue vs MaxPax statically gives Rogue a 1.59% advantage over maxpax. Their ZvP ratings are 23 apart.
Yes, I am aware that the 4th best Zerg is favored over the best Protoss. I am also aware that the 5th best Zerg (Solar) is also favored over the best Protoss as well. I realize you see this as a feature and not a bug, but to most of us, this is the bug! If Serral were head and shoulders above everyone and then Maru was 2nd and Trap was 3rd then we would have a Serral problem. That is not what is going on here. When there are 5 Zergs better than the best Protoss then it is not just a Serral problem. It is a Protoss is underpowered at the highest levels problem.
MaxPax is not the best protoss though.
Zest and Trap still are, and since Zest will go to the military this could become problematic in 2022 but Classic / herO are back and improving very rapidly
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Implying that koreans can return form after military is so pathetic. It literally never happened and shows your lack of arguments.
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France12911 Posts
On December 24 2021 05:00 Elantris wrote:
Implying that koreans can return form after military is so pathetic. It literally never happened and shows your lack of arguments.
Did I hallucinate ByuN beating Serral and Maru after returning from the military?
If a guy who had bad wrists can do it I think more healthy players can do that as well
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On December 24 2021 03:39 Nebuchad wrote:Show nested quote +On December 24 2021 03:33 Poopi wrote:On December 24 2021 03:21 darklycid wrote:An neeb probably won more than all the other zergs in 2017 too still nobody thought the mu was fine No Rogue and soO won more than Neeb that year but what is your point about 2017? The thing is that while Serral has a very high aligulac rating, it does not necessarily translates into tournaments wins / placings. And that's the case for several players on aligulac: Rogue wins more than his rating suggests, etc. We are running circles but if you only want to watch starcraft 2 if your race wins BlizzCon/Katowice, then even terrans would not watch since those tournaments have been dominated by zergs for years. Sc2 is still worth watching though Because there are two terrans who have a reasonable shot of winning any tournament they enter.
2? Cure winning GSL was a pretty big surprise and Clem has never won an international tournament. Which one are you talking about in addition to Maru?
In either case, I don't think they have a better shot at winning a big tournament than Zest/Trap
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On December 24 2021 03:31 WombaT wrote:
The statistics are, odd, as good a job as the Aligulac crew do, disparate regions and the added complication of weeklies adding a lot of noise.
Aligulac is useless and will remain useless as long as they treat the ESL Weeklies as if they matter.
GSL players are consistently under ranked on Aligulac, European players are consistently over ranked, Chinese players are not even represented at all.
Aligulac is useless. It's not even worth paying attention to. Saying their team does a good job is a joke. Their methods are not good.
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Northern Ireland26427 Posts
On December 24 2021 03:33 Poopi wrote:Show nested quote +On December 24 2021 03:21 darklycid wrote:An neeb probably won more than all the other zergs in 2017 too still nobody thought the mu was fine No Rogue and soO won more than Neeb that year but what is your point about 2017? The thing is that while Serral has a very high aligulac rating, it does not necessarily translates into tournaments wins / placings. And that's the case for several players on aligulac: Rogue wins more than his rating suggests, etc. We are running circles but if you only want to watch starcraft 2 if your race wins BlizzCon/Katowice, then even terrans would not watch since those tournaments have been dominated by zergs for years. Sc2 is still worth watching though
Aligulac, like ladder MMR rewards a high level and consistency.
Makes 100% sense Serral has giant ratings in both given he’s relentlessly consistent, and at a very high skill level.
I think ladder is a tad underrated in terms of looking at how the different races function.
Unfortunately I don’t think people have logged ladder records and notable achievements anywhere so I’m going off memory.
Serral obtained some truly preposterous highest ever ladder MMR, I’ve definitely seen Maru over 7k on Korea
Frequently, again this is just mostly from memory even the Protoss greats seem to cap out at 6.7/.8 for, the most part anyway. Korean server anyway. I’m sure some have pushed higher
It’s clearly not an impediment to Protoss winning tournaments, but I wonder if it does reveal at least, something that’s pertinent in analysing some of the race’s (relative) woes.
If anything, assuming barcodes are in place, a series of Bo1s against lots of different opponents is the Protoss format, we do see this reflected with the GM distribution, especially in Europe.
But yet at the top, top end Protoss can’t get near some of the peak MMRs other races have delivered, despite seemingly having an advantage here.
I believe Serral (I’m overly focusing on him mostly as I’m more familiar) has had higher MMR, by a distance even playing under the Serral name than Protoss players have managed playing under barcodes.
Serral has, considerably more success putting his name out there and having the kitchen sink thrown at him than a Protoss who should benefit from their stylistic traits not being known.
Or even the ‘shit it’s Serral I 100% can’t win with a macro game I’ll throw something ridiculous out. And Serral can deflect that.
Before I give my theory/conclusion, I’m 100% sure one of you is going to pull numbers and MMRs that completely demolish the central tenet of this point, so I look forward to that :p
If you’re as good as a Serral, your toolset is just better than what Protoss have, I’m not sure what other conclusion one can reach
If the build order/timing attack race can’t keep up with what the Zerg passive/reactive in terms of what is possible on ladder, in what environment are they going to prosper at the top tournament level outside of preparation for specific opponents?
Yes ladder is only ladder, but I feel it does give some insight into how top pros just playing a bunch of games casually perform.
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On December 24 2021 05:21 Vindicare605 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 24 2021 03:31 WombaT wrote:
The statistics are, odd, as good a job as the Aligulac crew do, disparate regions and the added complication of weeklies adding a lot of noise.
Aligulac is useless and will remain useless as long as they treat the ESL Weeklies as if they matter. GSL players are consistently under ranked on Aligulac, European players are consistently over ranked, Chinese players are not even represented at all. Aligulac is useless. It's not even worth paying attention to. Saying their team does a good job is a joke. Their methods are not good.
I don't think it's useless, it just shouldn't be treated as the holy measurement of player skill.
Saying Serral vs Maxpax is equal to Maxpax vs Rattata because their aligulac difference is equal is stupid.
Worrying that 4 Zerg players are significantly higher ranked than the best Protoss player in ZvP by Aligulac numbers is legitimate though as this also somewhat confirms what we're seeing in the games.
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On December 24 2021 05:30 Charoisaur wrote:Show nested quote +On December 24 2021 05:21 Vindicare605 wrote:On December 24 2021 03:31 WombaT wrote:
The statistics are, odd, as good a job as the Aligulac crew do, disparate regions and the added complication of weeklies adding a lot of noise.
Aligulac is useless and will remain useless as long as they treat the ESL Weeklies as if they matter. GSL players are consistently under ranked on Aligulac, European players are consistently over ranked, Chinese players are not even represented at all. Aligulac is useless. It's not even worth paying attention to. Saying their team does a good job is a joke. Their methods are not good. I don't think it's useless, it just shouldn't be treated as the holy measurement of player skill. Saying Serral vs Maxpax is equal to Maxpax vs Rattata because their aligulac difference is equal is stupid. Worrying that 4 Zerg players are significantly higher ranked than the best Protoss player in ZvP by Aligulac numbers is legitimate though as this also somewhat confirms what we're seeing in the games.
Yea sure, if you want to make Aligulac rankings in context with actual analysis then ok it can be a tool in the toolbox.
But when people want to say "but Aligulac" or start their argument with "Aligulac says" then it's useless.
It's a very imperfect model, and it should not be treated as anything other than.
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On December 24 2021 05:35 Vindicare605 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 24 2021 05:30 Charoisaur wrote:On December 24 2021 05:21 Vindicare605 wrote:On December 24 2021 03:31 WombaT wrote:
The statistics are, odd, as good a job as the Aligulac crew do, disparate regions and the added complication of weeklies adding a lot of noise.
Aligulac is useless and will remain useless as long as they treat the ESL Weeklies as if they matter. GSL players are consistently under ranked on Aligulac, European players are consistently over ranked, Chinese players are not even represented at all. Aligulac is useless. It's not even worth paying attention to. Saying their team does a good job is a joke. Their methods are not good. I don't think it's useless, it just shouldn't be treated as the holy measurement of player skill. Saying Serral vs Maxpax is equal to Maxpax vs Rattata because their aligulac difference is equal is stupid. Worrying that 4 Zerg players are significantly higher ranked than the best Protoss player in ZvP by Aligulac numbers is legitimate though as this also somewhat confirms what we're seeing in the games. Yea sure, if you want to make Aligulac rankings in context with actual analysis then ok it can be a tool in the toolbox. But when people want to say "but Aligulac" or start their argument with "Aligulac says" then it's useless. It's a very imperfect model, and it should not be treated as anything other than.
Agreed but I don't think that's the fault of their team. How would a better system look like? I don't think there's a way to 100% accurately rank player skill as different players thrive in different environment (Rogue becomes almost unbeatable in high stake bo7s, Maru worse in overseas tournament, online Cure/online Stats etc)
treating every match the same as they do it is the most neutral/objective approach imo
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On December 24 2021 05:40 Charoisaur wrote:Show nested quote +On December 24 2021 05:35 Vindicare605 wrote:On December 24 2021 05:30 Charoisaur wrote:On December 24 2021 05:21 Vindicare605 wrote:On December 24 2021 03:31 WombaT wrote:
The statistics are, odd, as good a job as the Aligulac crew do, disparate regions and the added complication of weeklies adding a lot of noise.
Aligulac is useless and will remain useless as long as they treat the ESL Weeklies as if they matter. GSL players are consistently under ranked on Aligulac, European players are consistently over ranked, Chinese players are not even represented at all. Aligulac is useless. It's not even worth paying attention to. Saying their team does a good job is a joke. Their methods are not good. I don't think it's useless, it just shouldn't be treated as the holy measurement of player skill. Saying Serral vs Maxpax is equal to Maxpax vs Rattata because their aligulac difference is equal is stupid. Worrying that 4 Zerg players are significantly higher ranked than the best Protoss player in ZvP by Aligulac numbers is legitimate though as this also somewhat confirms what we're seeing in the games. Yea sure, if you want to make Aligulac rankings in context with actual analysis then ok it can be a tool in the toolbox. But when people want to say "but Aligulac" or start their argument with "Aligulac says" then it's useless. It's a very imperfect model, and it should not be treated as anything other than. Agreed but I don't think that's the fault of their team. How would a better system look like? I don't think there's a way to 100% accurately rank player skill as different players thrive in different environment (Rogue becomes almost unbeatable in high stake bo7s, Maru worse in overseas tournament, online Cure/online Stats etc)
My issue is more of the way they present themselves but maybe that isn't their fault. But it is something they could do something about if they actually wanted to.
It's like in sports, when ESPN or Skip Bayless makes a claim and people take them seriously and use them as their basis for their argument. In Sports it's fucking OBVIOUS that they should not be taken that seriously.
Aligulac is the same way except there are Starcraft fans that ACTUALLY DO take them seriously. They shouldn't. They are as legitimate as Skip Bayless is. But the optics are different, and THAT is what I want to change. Aligulac is flawed and should be treated as such. It shouldn't be considered by even a single fan as being a catch all ranking for any player.
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EPT
Winnings/2021
