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Code S Season 3 - RO16 Group B Preview

Forum Index > SC2 General
13 CommentsPost a Reply

Code S Season 3 - RO16 Group B Preview

Text byTL.net ESPORTS
August 31st, 2021 22:31 GMT

2021 GSL Code S Season 3

by Poopi

After advancing from Group A, both Trap and Zest said they'd be okay with facing anyone but Maru in the playoffs. On Thursday night, we'll see which of the two Protosses will get to celebrate—or if both will end up having their wish come true after a series of wild upsets.

[image loading]

More info: GSL Code S Season 3 on Liquipedia

RO16 Group B: Maru, Solar, sOs, Dream

Match time: Thursday, Sep 02 9:30am GMT (GMT+00:00)

At first glance, Maru and Solar appear to be the favorites in the group, standing at #5 and #10 in the Aligulac.com rankings compared to Dream and sOs at #19 and #20.

However, there are a number of complicating factors that make the results tricky to predict. Not only do the players have to contend with sOs being his usual unpredictable self, but the two Terrans have to be fearful of his disproportionately powerful, #4 ranked PvT (just below Trap). I doubt Dream has any shot versus TvT master Maru, but his GSL track record says he could be a tough challenge for sOs or Solar. And while Solar might be the second strongest player on paper, he has the disadvantage of having to face his biggest hurdle in Maru in his very first match.

Speaking of Maru vs Solar, the 4-time Code S champ has really enjoyed picking on Solar during the group selections over the years. Even in his Code A interview, Solar seemed sadly resigned to getting selected by his nemesis once more, with Maru later acknowledging that Solar was indeed the obvious choice (though Maru has passed up on Solar for tastier players like Patience and RagnaroK in the past). However, the fact that Maru loves to pick Solar as a Code S opponent, and that Solar gets so depressed each time, seems to fly in the face of statistics.

Sure, Maru has a strong record in career head-to-heads against Solar at 49 map wins and 27 losses (64.47% winrate), but in just GSL matches, they’re almost dead even with Solar leading 5W–4L in matches while Maru leads 13W–12L in maps. Maru actually got eliminated when he picked Solar in 2020’s Code S Season 2, losing his initial match to Maru and then getting finished off by Trap (alas, Solar was eliminated as well). More recently, the KaiZi Gaming Zerg managed to beat Maru 3-1 in NeXT Season 1.

There's not much separating the two players in terms of Aligulac.com TvZ rating either, with Maru standing at 3189 points while Solar trails with 3072. In fact, Solar actually leads in terms of pure win percentage in 2021, with a 92W–43L record (68.15% match winrate) while Maru trails at 10W–6L (62.50%)—though that's mostly attributable to the fact that Solar plays in online cups while Maru plays almost solely in major tournaments.

It's understandable if Solar is still traumatized from being on the receiving end of the biggest nuke in pro-SC2 history, but his defeatist attitude ahead of matches with Maru seems somewhat unwarranted. Of course, Maru is still the favorite here, but Solar has proven on plenty of occasions that he has more than a fighting chance.

The second match of the group should be more clear cut, considering how much of a juggernaut sOs has been in PvT. In 2021, he sports an impressive 36W–17L (67.92% win-rate) map record and 13W–4L (76.47%) match record, which earned him the #4 spot in the PvT rankings as mentioned earlier. sOs' last PvT loss came almost six months ago, and he's currently on a ten match winning streak (albeit, he tied 1-1 versus Cure in July's WTL playoffs). The high point of that streak was a 2-1 victory over Maru in the group stage of Code S Season 2, though Maru had the excuse of having played Reynor in the DH Summer Finals just a day prior.

The situation just doesn't look too good for Dream, especially since he has to prepare all three match-ups while sOs and Solar only have to focus on two. While one can dig for reasons to be optimistic about Dream's chances, they might all end up being fool's gold. For example, Dream actually did take consecutive BO5 victories against sOs earlier this year at GSL Super Tournament 1 (3-1) and IEM Katowice (3-2). That made me think he had a real shot at winning when they met again in Super Tournament 2, but that time, sOs took his revenge with a 2-0 victory in the qualifier and a 3-0 smashing in the main event.

One could also point out that Dream qualified for this season of Code S on the back of TvP alone, going 6W–0L in matches and 13W–5L in maps. However, a look at the match list shows that he beat the likes of Prince and Gyulzzing, with Classic and Creator being his toughest opponents. Classic might be a Protoss legend of the past, but he is still a very early military returnee at the moment so he can hardly be compared to sOs. And even Creator, who is a fringe Code S player, managed to take Dream to five games in their Code A match.

As for the rest of the matches, I do not see Maru losing to sOs in a rematch from Season 2, even though Aliguliac.com rates sOs' PvT so highly as to give Maru only a 52.81% chance of winning. Last time, Maru had to prepare for the DreamHack Season Finals at the same time—now, he'll be able to focus solely on GSL, and I predict he'll advance in first place with relative ease. Solar vs Dream is another potentially close match, but I'll go chalk on this one and pick Solar—I figure he'll have more of his mental intact after a match with Maru, compared to Dream after facing sOs' underhanded tactics. Dream vs Maru could actually be the most one-sided match of the night, with Maru being 13W–1L in TvT in 2021 and undefeated since February (losing only to TY).

Finally, a Solar vs sOs clash should go comfortably in the Zerg's favor—sOs' match-up strengths are absurdly skewed in favor of his PvT at the moment, while his PvZ is actually rated below Creator at the moment.

Put it all together, and I still see Maru and Solar advancing side by side as the most likely outcome, even after they face each other in their first match. Then again, hunter and prey managed to both get eliminated back in Code S Season 2 of 2020, so maybe Dream and sOs have the wherewithal to make history repeat itself.

Predictions: Maru and Solar to advance.



Credits and acknowledgements

Writer: Poopi
Editor: Wax
Images: AfreecaTV
Records and Statistics: Aligulac.com and Liquipedia

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TL+ Member
Nakajin
Profile Blog Joined September 2014
Canada8989 Posts
Last Edited: 2021-08-31 22:49:08
August 31 2021 22:39 GMT
#2
This is one of the most hype GSL group in a while for me, there's some favorites but every match could go either way. (And there's no pvp and zvz!)
Writerhttp://i.imgur.com/9p6ufcB.jpg
Waxangel
Profile Blog Joined September 2002
United States33339 Posts
Last Edited: 2021-09-01 00:46:09
September 01 2021 00:45 GMT
#3
Dream's recent stats are bad, but he and the other players implied he was taking it easy in the weeks between the GSL's. I think he'll put up a bigger fight than expected if he's practicing hard.
AdministratorHey HP can you redo everything youve ever done because i have a small complaint?
QOGQOG
Profile Joined July 2019
834 Posts
September 01 2021 02:04 GMT
#4
This one seems a lot harder to call than the prior group—I agree that Solar absolutely could beat Maru, which depending on how sOs performs could mean his elimination. Honestly, I'm just hoping that Solar can avoid his usual hard fought third place.
BisuDagger
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
Bisutopia19229 Posts
September 01 2021 02:16 GMT
#5
sOs is looking like the best he has been in a long time. I’d love to see him make top 4 this season. Solar has been underperforming this entire year and will probably do so again.
ModeratorFormer Afreeca Starleague Caster: http://afreeca.tv/ASL2ENG2
tigera6
Profile Joined March 2021
3341 Posts
Last Edited: 2021-09-01 03:34:44
September 01 2021 03:30 GMT
#6
While I like Maru coming out in first, that also means he will face Trap early in the Ro.8, but I wished to see them fight in the Grand Finals.
Also, I dont think SOS can beat Solar in PvZ, but his PvT is pretty great, remember he almost 2-0 Cure in WTL until he forgot to research Warp Gate. On the other hand, Dream has a pretty good chance against Solar if he plays solid, so its coming down a lot of the result of the first 2 match.
SOS is likely to beat Dream, if Solar lose to Maru, he might have to fought hard against Dream in the Elimination match. Otherwise, Solar will get 1st place over SOS and Maru will have to come out in 2nd place.
EzioAs
Profile Joined September 2017
235 Posts
September 01 2021 06:38 GMT
#7
sOs advances first, Solar in second. You heard it here first.
花は桜木人は武士
Argonauta
Profile Joined July 2016
Spain4906 Posts
September 01 2021 08:06 GMT
#8
Maru first, then somewhat also Maru second. You heard it here first.
Rogue | Maru | Scarlett | Trap
TL+ Member
Poopi
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
France12789 Posts
September 01 2021 08:16 GMT
#9
This group is gonna make (into 12) or break my 10 correct predictions in liquibets, hopefully Maru delivers
WriterMaru
Ciaus_Dronu
Profile Joined June 2017
South Africa1848 Posts
September 01 2021 09:06 GMT
#10
Heart: Solar 1st place
Head: Solar 3rd place

Given that sOs has looked decent recently I'm not gonna pretend to know any more of how this is gonna go.
Drfilip
Profile Joined March 2013
Sweden590 Posts
September 01 2021 09:17 GMT
#11
On September 01 2021 12:30 tigera6 wrote:
While I like Maru coming out in first, that also means he will face Trap early in the Ro.8, but I wished to see them fight in the Grand Finals.
Also, I dont think SOS can beat Solar in PvZ, but his PvT is pretty great, remember he almost 2-0 Cure in WTL until he forgot to research Warp Gate. On the other hand, Dream has a pretty good chance against Solar if he plays solid, so its coming down a lot of the result of the first 2 match.
SOS is likely to beat Dream, if Solar lose to Maru, he might have to fought hard against Dream in the Elimination match. Otherwise, Solar will get 1st place over SOS and Maru will have to come out in 2nd place.

The Trap vs Maru ro8 would be great. I do like Trap's second place streak but I also want Maru in the finals again. Which is the better story?

I also wonder how sOs feels about not being the player that everyone wants to avoid. He is a lot better now than he was the past couple of years.

Side note: it's "sOs", not "SOS". Only the O is in caps. The other letters are lower case. Two lower case s and one caps O.
Random Platinum EU
neutralrobot
Profile Joined July 2011
Australia1025 Posts
September 01 2021 11:56 GMT
#12
On September 01 2021 09:45 Waxangel wrote:
Dream's recent stats are bad, but he and the other players implied he was taking it easy in the weeks between the GSL's. I think he'll put up a bigger fight than expected if he's practicing hard.


I expect Dream to put on a good performance, personally. But what that looks like in terms of predictions, I have no idea. I can even imagine a world in which he comes out first: say he beats sOs, then beats Solar in the winner's match. This would probably depend on Solar only having Maru-specific ZvT prep, and Dream being in better general TvZ shape. It's not my guess about the most likely scenario, but I think it's possible. Of course, beating sOs in the first place would depend on a lot of factors, including which version of both players shows up... I'll be really interested in seeing how Dream does either way, though. I was not a big Dream fan what he was at his previous peak, but he's growing on me this time.
Maru | Life | PartinG || I guess I like aggressive control freaks... || Reynor will one day reign supreme || *reyn supreme
Crocolisk Dundee
Profile Blog Joined October 2015
870 Posts
September 01 2021 16:55 GMT
#13
Head: Maru 1st, Solar 2nd
Heart: Solar 1st, sOs 2nd
Stopped watching ESL content in 2022 when the company was acquired by Savvy Gaming Group. Also object to sponsorships by the U.S. Air Force. Thanks for the lively discussions about sportswashing. StarCraft II is not for me anymore.
wchigo
Profile Joined September 2010
China71 Posts
September 03 2021 15:44 GMT
#14
Head: Maru, Solar
Heart: Maru, Dream

(Should’ve went with my heart in liquibets…)
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