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Code S RO4 Preview: DongRaeGu vs Rogue

Forum Index > SC2 General
32 CommentsPost a Reply
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Code S RO4 Preview: DongRaeGu vs Rogue

Text byTL.net ESPORTS
August 4th, 2020 19:02 GMT

2020 GSL Code S Season 2
Semifinal #1: DongRaeGu vs Rogue

by Wax

For the second consecutive season, we begin the Code S semifinals with a match that's both about making history and presenting a vision for the future.

Last season, PartinG became the first player to return from retirement and reach the Code S semifinals. While he fell to TY in the end, it was an important beacon of hope for players returning from lengthy hiatuses. This season, DongRaeGu has followed in PartinG's wake, defying all expectations to reach the semifinals. One could argue his path was even more arduous. While PartinG's retirement was due to his attempts to forge a career path in other video games, DongRaeGu had to let his gaming skills waste away in Korea's military. That's also why DongRaeGu's run is more important. There are many more DongRaeGu's in StarCraft II right now than there are PartinG's, and there will be many more in the future—soO, Zest, and Stats are set to go to the military soon, while ByuN is scheduled to be back this fall.

[image loading]
More info: GSL Code S Season 2 on Liquipedia

Ideally, we'd love for StarCraft II to pick up in popularity in Korea, and for some new blood to enter the scene. Realistically, StarCraft II is already like WarCraft 3, Tekken, Street Fighter, Brood War, and every other "stagnant water" game where Korea used to be (and still is) great: The old timers will have to keep carrying the scene for a long time. With that in mind, it's a relief to see signs that military service isn't a castastrophic, career-ending setback. It doesn't have to mean your competitive ceiling is lowered to being filler in the group stages. It doesn't have to mean you'll never win a championship again.

If you hadn't even noticed DongRaeGu had returned to progaming before this season, we couldn't blame you. In the previous four seasons of Code S, all he managed was two eliminations in the first group stage. The run he made this season was truly revelatory, as he made an almost instantaneous jump from being utterly forgettable to being one of the best ZvT players in Korea. The all-time-great player of 2012 came back to life, willing to send his swarms of Muta-Ling-Bane into a straight-up fight with anyone. With consecutive victories over SpeCial, TY, and INnoVation in macro games, we know that his ZvT, at least, is championship tier. It's true that he's been insufficiently tested in other match-ups—his two series against Dear could be summed up as a "cheese or be cheesed," while he hasn't played a single Zerg opponent so far in this Code S run. But damn, does it feel good to see a champion from 2012 come back and contend for the title in 2020.

Perhaps the StarCraft gods are evil after all, as they could not have sent a more perfect player to ruin the feel-good story of the season (unless they decided to unlock Sniper's bindings and release him from his cosmic prison). Rogue is a hype-killer extraordinaire, a player with top ten all-time skills (if not top five) but without the fanbase to match. He will beat your favorite player. He will trample all over the heart-warming narrative of the tournament. He will give a completely professional and humble interview afterward, leaving you wishing he'd be a bit more like Dark and give you an excuse to hate him.

Rogue never asked for any of this (well, except the hundreds of thousands of dollars from winning tournaments). His only sin is that he was strong when Zerg was strong, and he was good at using whatever styles and army compositions that made Zerg strong at the time. As the saying goes: don't hate the player, hate the game.

As one of the most successful Korean Zerg players of the LotV era, with two IEM Katowice titles and a BlizzCon title under his belt, Rogue figures to be the heavy favorite in this upcoming match. Famously, Rogue has never lost an offline best-of-seven series in his entire StarCraft II career, holding a 7-0 record in such contests. Now, this is one of the more deceptive statistical achievements in StarCraft II—Rogue was absolutely dismal in Code S quarterfinals (which are best-of-five) for several years, thus he never made it to the best-of-seven stages of Code S until he was ready to go all the way. Still, if we didn't read deeply into such statistical vagaries, professional sports would be much, much less amusing. So, yeah, Rogue is the unbeaten god-king of best-of-sevens. On the other hand, DongRaeGu hasn't played an offline best-of-seven since 2013, when he lost to Life in the Iron Squid II finals. Everything seems stacked up for DongRaeGu to lose, and for DongRaeGu to lose hard.

As usual, Zerg vs Zerg is the X-factor here. DongRaeGu himself gave voice to such after his quarterfinal final match, saying that though he'd be the underdog versus Rogue, he'd almost prefer a ZvZ if just for the opportunity to use the match-up's variability to try and pull off an upset. While I appreciate the confidence, I'm not sure if I believe DongRaeGu has the baseline ZvZ ability on which to build an upset. ZvZ has been by far his worst match-up in 2020, as he has a sub 50% win-rate in both matches and map score. On the other hand, Rogue has won nearly two-thirds of his ZvZ matches in the same time-frame and presently has the highest Aligulac.com ZvZ rating among Korean players.

But, as we've insinuated many times before, the stats can lie when it comes to predicting Code S. 'GSL practice and preparation' isn't just a trope TL.net users invoke to argue against Serral fans—it's a real, complicating factor that's made a player like TY an online chump and offline champ in 2020.

This feels particularly relevant now, as Rogue talked about how it could be difficult to find a practice partner during his post-quarterfinal interview. To catch you up on some obscure Korean-community news, amateur/semi-pro/unclassified player Prince had previously posted about how difficult it was to find Zerg practice partners after he was eliminated from the RO24. You see, AfreecaTV Freecs' Armani had been in Prince's group, and it so happens to be that the AfreecaTV + Friends clique encompasses over half the Code S tier Zergs in Korea. Now, the honor code about not helping people practice against your friends/teammates has been the norm since the Brood War days—nothing wrong with that. It's just that things get complicated when the scene contracts, and one team/group holds the majority of players for one race.

With that in mind, imagine this scenario: DongRaeGu comes in with the institutional knowledge of the Korean Zerg Brain Trust behind him, having collectively devised all sorts of devious builds. Honorary Afreeca clubhouse member Solar (who beat Rogue in the RO24) has canvassed the top Zerg minds of the EU scene, giving DRG additional access to forbidden knowledge. On the other hand, Rogue has had to scramble to find any kind of help, getting a "what's in it for me?" from Dark and a "you must be truly desperate to come to me for help" from frequent nemesis Scarlett. While Rogue's superior instincts and mechanics are noticeable in the match, DongRaeGu powers through on the back of well-planned builds and all-ins.

Improbable. But still plausible.

Ultimately, I have to go with the conservative prediction here. Though I fully believe in the 'realness' of DongRaeGu's ZvT abilities, and think he could actually win a GSL Code S title if he drew the perfect bracket, Rogue seems like the least ideal opponent for him to face at this time.

Prediction: Rogue 4 - 2 DongRaeGu

Credits and acknowledgements

Writers: Wax
Images: AfreecaTV
Statistics: Aligulac.com and Liquipedia

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TL+ Member
Cricketer12
Profile Blog Joined May 2012
United States13974 Posts
August 04 2020 19:09 GMT
#2
Pretty sad that Dream's inability to defeat Rogue may end up being the one thing that keeps DRG from another GSL win...it *should* be Rogue 4-2 but here's hoping...
Kaina + Drones Linkcro Summon Cupsie Yummy Way
ZigguratOfUr
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
Iraq16955 Posts
August 04 2020 19:20 GMT
#3
We'd be much more likely to get a watchable finals if Rogue loses here, but it seems unlikely.
Elentos
Profile Blog Joined February 2015
55550 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-08-04 19:31:10
August 04 2020 19:28 GMT
#4
On August 05 2020 04:20 ZigguratOfUr wrote:
We'd be much more likely to get a watchable finals if Rogue loses here, but it seems unlikely.

I have hope in the other side of the bracket to make the finals watchable regardless. No more and no less.
Every 60 seconds in Africa, a minute passes.
johnnywup
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States3858 Posts
August 04 2020 19:49 GMT
#5
petition for rogue's official nickname to be "The Dream Killer"
Rob-Zero
Profile Joined January 2011
Germany459 Posts
August 04 2020 19:54 GMT
#6
I like Rogue a lot, and if he wins it all I would be happy for him. But damn, DRG in the finals would be awesome!
Dark Age of Camelot - I miss you
Cricketer12
Profile Blog Joined May 2012
United States13974 Posts
August 04 2020 20:01 GMT
#7
On August 05 2020 04:28 Elentos wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 05 2020 04:20 ZigguratOfUr wrote:
We'd be much more likely to get a watchable finals if Rogue loses here, but it seems unlikely.

I have hope in the other side of the bracket to make the finals watchable regardless. No more and no less.

Have faith Elentos. DRG Stats for GOAT finals can still happen
Kaina + Drones Linkcro Summon Cupsie Yummy Way
Mettis
Profile Joined June 2019
84 Posts
August 04 2020 20:02 GMT
#8
Man I hope DRG proves you guys wrong again, every time this season you've went against him lol
TentativePanda
Profile Joined August 2014
United States800 Posts
August 04 2020 20:52 GMT
#9
This Rogue hate is so absurd lmao. Can't wait for Rogue to stomp DRG
Waxangel
Profile Blog Joined September 2002
United States33387 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-08-04 20:54:14
August 04 2020 20:53 GMT
#10
i'm just waiting for DRG to beat Rogue with Lambo-builds by proxy
AdministratorHey HP can you redo everything youve ever done because i have a small complaint?
Argonauta
Profile Joined July 2016
Spain4937 Posts
August 04 2020 20:55 GMT
#11
Rogue about to SH this GSL
Rogue | Maru | Scarlett | Trap
TL+ Member
Calliope
Profile Joined July 2018
297 Posts
August 04 2020 21:04 GMT
#12
Still, how strange it is that we consider the mirrors to be volatile and prone to end in upsets (with TvT perhaps a little less so). They are the only truly balanced matchups so victory should correspond to skill rather than racial advantages. And yet we are often unhappy about them, such as having to watch mirror finals.
Clément 화이팅
Chemist391
Profile Joined October 2010
United States366 Posts
August 04 2020 21:20 GMT
#13
On August 05 2020 05:01 Cricketer12 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 05 2020 04:28 Elentos wrote:
On August 05 2020 04:20 ZigguratOfUr wrote:
We'd be much more likely to get a watchable finals if Rogue loses here, but it seems unlikely.

I have hope in the other side of the bracket to make the finals watchable regardless. No more and no less.

Have faith Elentos. DRG Stats for GOAT finals can still happen


DRG v Stats would truly be incredible. DRG's ocean crashing against Stats' fortress.

Sadly, I think that Rogue v TY is much more likely.
Drfilip
Profile Joined March 2013
Sweden590 Posts
August 04 2020 21:32 GMT
#14
On August 05 2020 06:04 Calliope wrote:
Still, how strange it is that we consider the mirrors to be volatile and prone to end in upsets (with TvT perhaps a little less so). They are the only truly balanced matchups so victory should correspond to skill rather than racial advantages. And yet we are often unhappy about them, such as having to watch mirror finals.

Fact: mirror matches are equal in balance.
Observation: racial traits are not designed to encounter themselves (excluding shield batteries and armor tag on oracles).
Corollary: strenghts in offence and weakness in defence can make an unfortunate overlap, e.t. banes one shots lings and adepts can shade through ffs and two shot probes.
Analysis: the mirrors may be balanced, but that does not mean that they are true tests of skill as luck with attention and mis-micro will make things volatile.
Random Platinum EU
Howard_Kao
Profile Joined September 2018
China261 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-08-04 21:41:26
August 04 2020 21:33 GMT
#15
Damn,beside dark ,scarlett anf noregret, there's no one that will practice with rogue in korea. Unless somehow serral and reynor wiredly wake up in the middle of the night and practice with him, things do not seems to be good for him.

Oh did not notice noregret went back to Canada
"You don't need a gsl champion, you don't need a esl champion. I feel like I'm just a normal man. I just practice very hard this time, like 15hrs everyday" Oliveira 2023
Waxangel
Profile Blog Joined September 2002
United States33387 Posts
August 04 2020 21:44 GMT
#16
On August 05 2020 06:33 Howard_Kao wrote:
Damn,beside dark ,scarlett anf noregret, there's no one that will practice with rogue in korea. Unless somehow serral and reynor wiredly wake up in the middle of the night and practice with him, things do not seems to be good for him.

Oh did not notice noregret went back to Canada


you forgot ragnarok!

but yeah, with impact going to army it's getting even tougher to find Zerg practice it seems
AdministratorHey HP can you redo everything youve ever done because i have a small complaint?
Cricketer12
Profile Blog Joined May 2012
United States13974 Posts
August 04 2020 22:17 GMT
#17
On August 05 2020 06:44 Waxangel wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 05 2020 06:33 Howard_Kao wrote:
Damn,beside dark ,scarlett anf noregret, there's no one that will practice with rogue in korea. Unless somehow serral and reynor wiredly wake up in the middle of the night and practice with him, things do not seems to be good for him.

Oh did not notice noregret went back to Canada


you forgot ragnarok!

but yeah, with impact going to army it's getting even tougher to find Zerg practice it seems

DRG holding true to his ideals of not joining Kespa finally working out.
Kaina + Drones Linkcro Summon Cupsie Yummy Way
neptunusfisk
Profile Blog Joined July 2012
2286 Posts
August 04 2020 22:17 GMT
#18
On August 05 2020 06:20 Chemist391 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 05 2020 05:01 Cricketer12 wrote:
On August 05 2020 04:28 Elentos wrote:
On August 05 2020 04:20 ZigguratOfUr wrote:
We'd be much more likely to get a watchable finals if Rogue loses here, but it seems unlikely.

I have hope in the other side of the bracket to make the finals watchable regardless. No more and no less.

Have faith Elentos. DRG Stats for GOAT finals can still happen


DRG v Stats would truly be incredible. DRG's ocean crashing against Stats' fortress.

Sadly, I think that Rogue v TY is much more likely.

TY usually makes for cool games though
maru G5L pls
Freeborn
Profile Joined July 2010
Germany421 Posts
August 04 2020 22:24 GMT
#19
Rogue is always fun.
But DRG is great.

Either one will be funfor the finals.
Alucen-Will-
Profile Joined October 2014
United States4054 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-08-04 23:38:25
August 04 2020 23:32 GMT
#20
On August 05 2020 07:17 neptunusfisk wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 05 2020 06:20 Chemist391 wrote:
On August 05 2020 05:01 Cricketer12 wrote:
On August 05 2020 04:28 Elentos wrote:
On August 05 2020 04:20 ZigguratOfUr wrote:
We'd be much more likely to get a watchable finals if Rogue loses here, but it seems unlikely.

I have hope in the other side of the bracket to make the finals watchable regardless. No more and no less.

Have faith Elentos. DRG Stats for GOAT finals can still happen


DRG v Stats would truly be incredible. DRG's ocean crashing against Stats' fortress.

Sadly, I think that Rogue v TY is much more likely.

TY usually makes for cool games though


If anything is easily to assume, a TY-Rogue finals would likely make for more than a couple games with unique build orders and exotic strategies. In a way somewhat unlike DRG and Stats, TY and Rogue have been players who have set many of the innovative builds for their respective races over the past few years. From this, I can't see an intuitive reason to believe that a DRG and Stats final as having the same level of strategic variation or interesting builds in an extended seven game set as we might from TY-Rogue. At least this can be inferred from watching their respective play in this season of Code S. Stats is a generally defensive and reactive Protoss, with DRG primarily focusing on vanilla macro play. Contra to this Rogue and TY have been cheesier and a bit more unorthodox than the respective standard play of the current matchups at the moment. It's probably fair to assume that the prep time given for the finals would likely result from quite a bit of prepared game-planning from both of them and as such an interesting series.

With all this said, I doubt DRG will beat Rogue tomorrow anyway

(Wiki)Rogue 4-2 ala Wax's predictoin

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