Face Off

We’re at the final stretch now. The final set of Round Playoffs for Proleague 2016 are about to kick off, and all three matches will be crucial as teams jostle for position for the Season Playoffs. Three teams are confirmed already—Jin Air, KT and SKT—while two more have already been eliminated—MVP and Samsung. However, each team remaining in the playoffs has one key objective to accomplish:

• CJ must beat Afreeca and Jin Air to qualify for the season playoffs.
  
• Afreeca must either beat CJ or rely on Jin Air beating CJ to qualify for the season playoffs.
  
• Jin Air must win Match 2 to guarantee top seed in the season playoffs.
  
• KT must rely on CJ/Afreeca beating Jin Air, before winning the Round 3 Finals to tie Jin Air on overall points (it’s unclear how this would be decided).
  

Five Conclusions

1. MVP will have been the most disheartened of the seven teams last week. DeParture returned to winning ways , finishing his Proleague 2016 run at 5-7; a bit disappointing in comparison to the hype surrounding him at the end of 2015. Then again, it’s a solid enough improvement on his previous records in 2014 (0-7) and 2015 (5-9), and hopefully we’ll see him finally put together a great season next year. Once again though, it was GuMiho who carried MVP to the brink of success, chipping in with two big wins over Classic and INnoVation. Since the end of April, he is 9-3 in Proleague; there are few players in the league who have contributed so much for so little reward.
   
   
2. MVP’s failure ultimately came down to their poor performance in previous rounds, but there’s got to be some part of them royally pissed off at KT Rolster. Stats and Zest were decent enough, both securing easy wins, but Losira was hopelessly outclassed by aLive, and Curious’ aggression proved too much for TY. The Afreeca zerg has been struggling hard for quite a few months now, but turned up to this must-win match in inspired form. The KT coach’s baffling decision to send out Leenock as the team ace all but sealed MVP’s fate, and Curious’ 12 pool did the rest. With CJ’s falling at the final hurdle as well, this could well be the single game that sends Afreeca to the Season Playoffs.
   
   
3. CJ too have only themselves to blame. A 3-2 win over Samsung was promising; ByuL picking up one win while herO swept up in the ace match. Just like the old days then; their twin aces finally clicking in the same match. Against SKT, they sent out exactly the same lineup. herO once again did his duty, but once ByuL fell to Classic the writing was on the wall. Their decision to send out Hush twice in vital matches this week made no sense whatsoever. However good he may be in practice, he’s a player with an 0-9 record in Proleague this year, and a player with a 4-17 match record in 2016 as a whole (wins over Choya, HyuN, SoulKey, and NoRegreT in the GSL/SSL qualifiers). There’s a strong case that he may well be the weakest player on any Proleague lineup right now. Why risk him, and not MC—who’s picked up big wins recently in Proleague and GSL—or RagnaroK, who’s done similarly in the past?
   
   
4. It’s not like their opponents have been particularly good either. This is the first time since Proleague 2014 Round 2 that SKT have finished outside the playoff spots, and it’s been a much deserved humbling. Dark is the sole member of their squad who’s had his reputation enhanced since the release of Legacy, and even he’s had an awful round 3 (1-5). The rest have either stalled (Impact, Zoun, MyuNgSiK) or regressed (INnoVation, Classic, Dream, soO, Sorry). They still have another shot—they’re still qualified for the season playoffs after all—but serious questions need to be asked in the teamhouse.
   
   
5. Samsung entered Round 3 in 5th place, a single point behind CJ. They leave Round 3 five points above last placed MVP. The good work that they’ve done for much of the year—twice falling just short of 4th place and a playoffs spot—has been wiped away in one go. Dear’s gone out swinging at least—carrying the team to victory against Jin Air with wins over Maru and Rogue (much as he’s done all year)—but the support around him simply hasn’t been there. Reality and Solar have been especially disappointing (2-4 records for both in Round 3) in comparison to their performances over the first part of the year (6-4 and 4-4 respectively). Armani though deserves a shoutout. He might have been pretty poor so far in 2016, but his crucial map win over sOs allowed Samsung to finish the year on a win. The chaos of the early to mid game was pretty painful to watch, but Armani’s efficient handling of the late game basetrade scenario gives him a potential spark of promise for 2017.
   
   
   

Afreeca vs CJ

This is undoubtedly the biggest match of the Round 3 Playoffs. Playing for bragging rights is great, and playing to nab top seed is even bigger, but this match has the potential to decide which of Afreeca and CJ will be present at the first match of the Season Playoffs.

The Starters

Patience < New Gettysburg > herO
< King Sejong Station >
< Overgrowth >
< Dusk Towers >
< Frost >
< Frozen Temple >
ACE < New Gettysburg > ACE


There’s no doubt that herO’s been one of the players of Proleague 2016. He has the most wins of anyone in the round robin stages of the competition and, at 18-7, his win ratio is more than respectable. More than that though, he’s registered an ace record of 5-2 across the 12 matches in Rounds 2 and 3 (SKT, Afreeca x2, Jin Air, Samsung), winning two maps in each of those five victories. herO has carried CJ through this campaign single handedly, and they need their star player to come up big two more times.

That said, all-kill matches are his kryptonite. In the modern era of Proleague (2014 onwards), he’s played in 12 all-kill matches. He’s managed to pick up a win on four occasions, and a 2K once. In other words, he has failed to contribute in more than half the all-kill matches he’s ever played—a statistic drastically at odds with the rest of his performances for CJ. CJ’s roster is the shallowest in Proleague (swap herO with pretty much any player in the bottom 4 teams and watch CJ plummet to the bottom of the table), and they will need herO to perform new miracles for them to pick up a win tonight.

On the Afreeca side, Patience is an interesting pick. His offline win percentages in 2016 are heavily skewed towards the zerg matchup (76% PvZ, 38% PvT, 30% PvP), but those are probably a bit misleading. It’s true that his PvZ is great (7-1 match record for the year; wins over ByuL, Dark, soO, RagnaroK), but his PvT stats are based off a small sample size, and skewed by a Code A loss to TY in January, and losses to GuMiho in Proleague—the two best TvPers in Korea right now. In wins over BrAvO and Ryung in Proleague, Patience has looked decent enough.

His PvP though is the real issue—aside from a couple of early wins in the SSL over herO and Classic, and a Proleague win over Classic last month, Patience is winless for the year. That’s partly excused by the calibre of player he’s come up against—sOs, Stats and Zest have combined for an 11-1 record over the Afreeca Protoss. Still, it’s abundantly clear that he is not a top tier PvPer, and it's likely that Afreeca didn't anticipate CJ dumping all their hopes on herO sweeping from the start. Given herO’s strong record in the matchup (9-2 in Proleague, the advantage should lie with the CJ ace.


The Zergs

In times gone past, there’s no doubt that the zerg cores of both teams would have ranked among each team’s finest stars. However, ByuL has fallen on tough times. He’s still trusted weekly by CJ (as well they have to, given their tiny roster), but he’s a far cry from the superstar of 2015. His mediocre Proleague record of 8-10 is boosted significantly by the zerg-weighted early meta; since the start of April, he is 4-8 in the competition.

CJ might actually be better served trusting their other zerg on the roster. While RagnaroK has a mere fraction of ByuL’s reputation, it’s inarguable that his results this year have been superior. His entire career has been evidence that aggression can catch even the best players off-guard (see his SSL run, for example), but even so, his macro play is hardly sub-par either, even if he was outplayed by a retiree in the GSL this week (see his Proleague win over Dream). RagnaroK’s Proleague record is similarly poor though at 3-7. Still, CJ might be well served by prepping RagnaroK for a key snipe on one of Afreeca’s big terrans—Bomber or aLive.

A couple weeks ago, I might have said that Afreeca stood in much the same position. Symbol has been a non-factor all year, while Curious' mid-year slump has been well documented. However, while Symbol’s not shown us anything new, Curious has shot up the rankings. Four big wins late in Proleague Round 3 turned Afreeca’s whole season around, including last week’s crucial pair of wins over TY and Leenock. Despite his poor showing in his SSL group, it looks like he’s slowly easing back into things, and he has a high chance of making the final four.


The Terrans

Afreeca’s terrans are the pride of the team. Bomber might have cut down his Proleague achievements to supplement his new player / coach role, but he’s shown in his SSL Challenge group that he’s not one to be taken lightly. Early wins in Proleague, such as his game against Dark showed that he’s still got what it takes to completely outthink his opponents—taking on the SKT zerg’s ultralisk army with a pure bio composition.

KeeN similarly has refused to back down in this new age of Starcraft 2. His recovery from his annus horribilis on Prime has been good to see, even if he’s not the key terran of years gone by, anchoring MVP in the GSTL. Out of both leagues, he’s probably spent all his time prepping for an opponent or helping out his team; with a 3-3 record in Proleague (inexplicably beating Stats twice), he’s certainly still a useful option.

Still, aLive is the one guaranteed of a spot. Like Curious, aLive too fell into a slump following a promising start to Legacy; a winless streak stretching from mid-February to early May pretty much ruined his records, both in the individual leagues and in Proleague. Still, his start to Season 2 has shown that all that time off hasn’t been for nothing; blazing through his SSL Challenge group in 1st place. Even with his disappointing showing in the Ro.16 last Thursday, losing to Zest and Trust, he remains the team’s best player. He actually matches up very well with CJ. His TvT and TvP are his two weaker matchups; Bunny’s TvT is similarly weak though, and should Afreeca beat herO, the rest of the team is open to a sweep. His TvZ though is his forte; his 15-7 record for the year is superb, including wins over Losira, Rogue, Dark and ByuL.

On CJ’s side, Bunny has been left as the sole terran representative following Bbyong’s enforced absence. Similarly to aLive, Bunny often plays very standard terran, throwing in reaper aggression from time to time. In fact, he’s pretty much a worse copy of the Afreeca man; both share the same woes against terran and protoss, while cashing in against zerg. Still, even Bunny’s strongest suit is slightly tainted—his awful 2-3 loss to TRUE in Code A is still painfully fresh in the memory. He’s simply not good enough to be a key component of a playoffs-calibre Proleague team. He might trick his way past a zerg if called upon, but he shouldn’t be viewed as one of CJ’s main threats.


The Protosses

Finally, onto each team’s protosses. We’ve already covered herO and Patience, but what of each team’s remaining resources?

CJ are fortunate to have added MC to their roster. Theoretically, this means that they can ditch Hush, who has been a liability in 2016, although we've seen from recent rosters that the CJ coaches are reluctant to bench him. Hush may have been a PvP sniper of genuine ability in HotS, but even that’s seemed to have left him in the switch to Legacy. MC might not be the championship protoss of years gone by, but he’s still valuable enough—just think back to his debut victory over Zest, for example. Since his return to competitive action, we’ve only seen matches against terran and protoss from him; his 2-1 win over DRGLing in the GSL qualifiers wasn’t streamed. It’s unclear how he’ll be used, but prepping him to snipe Patience in the worst-case-scenario of herO losing in match 1 is a clear option.

Afreeca’s Protoss backup line is comparatively strong. They have Super as one of their strongest players, fresh off success in an SSL Challenge group over Maru and herO. His PvT has been very strong all year (11-5 record, with wins over Maru, Bomber, SpeeD, INnoVation and GuMiho), while his PvZ has been solid as well at a 60% winrate. It’s the third matchup which is confusing; his PvP has looked dreadful all year long (38% win rate)—just watch his Code S matches against Trap for a clinic in how not to play the matchup. Then, he goes and beats Zest 2-0 while drawing 1-1 with herO in the SSL. Was that a fluke caused by the sheer amount of prep work required for those monster 30 game groups (plus Super being a ‘lesser’ threat in the Group of Death)? Perhaps; he’s lost both PvPs since to Zest and Dear in Proleague. Still, he’s not to be taken lightly by anyone.

Finally, Billowy rounds out the Afreeca roster. He’s barely played at all this year (1-3 in Proleague; 8-12 record in all competitions), and is currently out of both individual leagues until 2017. Still, anyone who’s all killed KT deserves special attention and more than a little respect.


Predictions

As always, it’s hard to predict all-kill matches, since everything can go wrong from minute one. Still, here are some general thoughts on how things will play out:

• herO will beat Patience in the opener.
  
• If herO wins, Afreeca should send Super or aLive on King Sejong Station.
  
• If Patience wins, CJ should send MC or Bunny on King Sejong Station.
  
• herO will need to pick up three wins for CJ to emerge victorious here; aLive and Super have the ability to sweep the rest of the CJ lineup.
  

Patience < herO
Super > herO
Super < MC
aLive > MC
aLive > Bunny
aLive > ByuL

Afreeca 4 - 2 CJ