Telecom Classic

Yesterday was all about the Classic show. After a pretty forgettable start to Legacy over the past six months, it looks like he’s finally kicked into gear. For a team with so many stars, SKT have definitely looked mortal in the past few weeks. Dream is channeling his 2015 in looking flashy while still managing to lose; INnoVation seems to have a serious weakness to protoss while soO’s been struggling in the late game against terran. Dark’s been the team’s one shining light, but even he’s tailed off since his SSL run; his 2016 ZvP winrate is still an unimpeachable 83% (15-3), but while winrates in the mid 60s are definitely above average for his other two matchups, he’s still not an all-round slayer just yet. Classic’s return to form though may allow SKT to set up favourable matchups in the all-kill format. Let’s take a look at the key battles which we might get to see.

SKT vs KT

1. Classic vs Stats
   
   Obviously, we should probably start with the one game we’re guaranteed to see. After his all-kill, Classic’s been sent out again, while Stats has been given the nod for KT. Stats is definitely in good PvP form—in 2016, he’s 15-3 in the matchup—although the calibre of his opposition has been slightly questionable. Hurricane, Patience, MyuNgSiK, and Blaze are all mid-tier protosses in Legacy, sOs is in awful form, while herO’s given him his sole match loss. It’s undeniable that he’s good, but we’ll only know how good he is with games against the elite. Classic too has good results in the matchup (10-4 in 2016), and since his return to the SKT lineup, it’s notable that he’s beaten both Zest and herO (and sOs). This is a crucial match for both teams, and in a 50/50 call, I’ve tossed a coin and opted for Classic.
   
   
2. Protoss snipers
   
   Whether it’s Classic or Stats that wins game 1, we’re going to see the losing team send out a protoss sniper. This is going to be problematic for both teams. For KT, their main issue is their lack of quality zergs. With their core of TY / Stats / Zest all but guaranteed spots in the team, we’re probably going to see one of Leenock or Losira making up the numbers. Do they trust their zergs to pick up the win, or will they send in TY? For SKT, they already have a ready-made sniper in Dark. The issue though, is that Zest is still lurking in the KT ace spot, and Dark really is the sole true counter to him (that is, if he even manages to take the win).
   
   There’s a pretty interesting way to look at what a team might do for these all-kill matches—look at the players lined up practicing in the previous match. There are actually four ‘booths’ in the Nexon Arena for Proleague, with two for each team. In general, there’ll always be one player practicing / setting up their gear in one while their teammate plays in the other. For example, Dream was practicing while Classic was playing ByuL, and Impact for Hush / herO (empty booth for Bunny). It’s not inconceivable that we’ll see those snipers again should SKT have to set up against a zerg / protoss.
   
   
3. TY, Zest, Dark
   
   With the possible exception of Maru, these three players sit far above the rest so far in Korean LotV, and both teams will definitely be planning around how to counter the other team’s stars.
   
   Zest is universally the consensus #1 player in the world. In 2016, his statistical record is staggering—86% winrate in PvP, 88% winrate in PvT. Next to those, 54% in PvZ is a big outlier. There are some excuses you can use—his recent 0-3 and 1-3 online losses to Snute and DeParture recently came near his GSL Final and some crucial Proleague matches, so you’d forgive perhaps him for focussing on those—but it’s undeniably an area that SKT should be looking to test.
   
   Dark is the premier zerg in the world, and has emerged as a ZvP specialist. There’s almost no way that SKT send anyone else against Zest, and is probably the sole player on SKT capable of taking a multi-kill to save the game here (aside from Classic, should he play to the same standards as yesterday)—all their other players have clear weaknesses in certain matchups. Dark vs Zest is the ace match that we all want to see.
   
   TY is the real wildcard for KT. His mirror matchup play is probably too good for either of the SKT terrans (see his dominant 3-0 over Dream / 4-0 against Cure in GSL), and it’s likely that they’ll revert to the same strategies from Round 1—cheese him out with zergs, or give MyuNgSiK a go perhaps.

Predictions

Here’s a guess at how it’ll turn out. Frankly, I think it all comes down to whether Dark can beat TY and Zest; there's no one else on SKT who you'd favour against either.

Classic > Stats
Classic < TY
soO < TY
INnoVation < TY
Dark > TY
Dark > Leenock
Dark > Zest

SKT 4 - 3 KT