A Telecom Wobble

Just like Round 1, things are going down to the wire in Proleague Round 2. Jin Air are comfortably locked in 1st place, and SKT too are guaranteed a playoff berth (though they’ll need KT to lose to avoid playing in the first match). Afreeca too have their fates already confirmed going into the final week, although for them, their 0-5 record so far has left them at the bottom of the table. We’ve got four teams then left fighting for the two remaining playoff spots. Join us for a quick rundown of the various scenarios possible this week, a recap of last week’s events, as well as a preview of the two matches that will decide it all.

Playoff Scenarios

Note: I have assumed that head-to-head records separate teams when tied on mapscore.

• KT win, MVP win (any score) - KT and MVP qualify
  
  
• KT win, MVP lose (any score) - KT and CJ qualify
  
  
• KT lose , MVP win - all four teams finish on 3-3.
  
  
  • KT 2-3 Samsung, MVP 3-0 Afreeca - KT, Samsung, MVP finish on a +2 map record. They can’t be split on head-to-head, so pre-playoff playoffs?
    
  • KT 2-3 Samsung, MVP win 3-1 or 3-2 - KT and Samsung qualify.
    
  • KT 1-3 Samsung, MVP win 3-0 - Samsung and MVP qualify.
    
  • KT 1-3 Samsung, MVP win 3-1 or 3-2 - Samsung and KT qualify.
    
  • KT lose 0-3, MVP win 3-0 or 3-1 - Samsung and MVP qualify.
    
  • KT lose 0-3, MVP win 3-2 - Samsung and KT qualify.
  
  
  
• KT lose, MVP lose (any score) - KT and Samsung qualify.
  
  
• Note: If KT win by any score, they will move into 2nd place ahead of SKT.

Five Conclusions

1. How many losses constitutes a pattern? Momentum is an oft-quoted sports term that’s not too relevant in Starcraft. You’d think at 3-0 up against Squirtle, Mvp had all the “momentum”; similarly for Squirtle at 3-3. Momentum’s a term that can only really be applied after the fact, but that’s not going to stop us guessing at what’s happening to SKT. It’s the first time in a year that they’ve finished outside pole position in the round robin stages; the first time in a year that they’ve lost two matches in a round. It might have been a slightly weakened lineup, but when this dominant a team starts getting swept by a second tier outfit in Samsung, it’s hardly a sign of strength. Luckily for them, they’ll have a chance next week to atone in the playoffs.
   
   
2. Once again, the KT big three delivered the goods last week. KT have dominated the starleagues this year, with Stats, Zest and TY all finalists (or champions) of either the GSL or the SSL, but they’ve had a few issues converting that to Proleague success. After all, TY’s only a couple of games separated from his five game losing streak, while Stats’ weakness to terrans has blighted his otherwise near-flawless record so far. Jin Air might be the current round champs, and SKT last season’s big winners, but should KT’s big three continue to deliver there’s no reason to suggest that they can’t take the trophy back to the other half of the telecom divide.
   
   
3. For MVP, it was all over quickly as KT flexed their muscles. As well as they’ve played at times this round, sometimes there’s just no competing against a team with much superior firepower. Their three losses were some of the most one sided stomps of the year so far—TY harassed DeParture to death with liberator / hellion pressure, Zest read Ryung like a book before sniping his medivacs out of the sky, and Blaze was hopelessly outclassed by Stats. Only GuMiho was left to salvage some pride for MVP. After their successful round so far, it was quite a swift return to earth for them—hopefully they’re going to bring something better to their match against Afreeca this week.
   
   
4. Jin Air may have lost, but it was still an incredibly valuable week of information gained for them. Maru and Cure won as expected, while bench players Creator and HyuN proved that they’re probably not quite ready to take on regular stints in the starting lineup yet. In Maru, Rogue, Cure and Trap, Jin Air have four players who have performed excellently in the first half of the year, while you’ve got to imagine that sOs will sort his game out sooner rather than later. For their bench players, it’s going to be a very tough battle to earn a starting spot.
   
   
5. Finally, CJ gave themselves a chance to creep into the playoffs—a chance that few would’ve given them after their awful start to the year. As usual, their win came fully off the back of big wins from herO and ByuL. herO in particular is 7-2 this round, and this was the second time this round that he’s picked up two wins in a night (and on a third time, he lost in the ace match to Dark. If KT and Afreeca win this week, sending CJ to the playoffs along with KT, CJ will certainly owe them some thanks, but not as many as they’ll owe herO.

Afreeca vs MVP

Curious <Overgrowth> DeParture

Afreeca and MVP start us off with a bit of a déjà vu. They’ve sent out nearly the exact same line-ups as in Round 1, with Patience replacing KeeN on Afreeca’s side being the single exception. Last round the Freecs were able to win 3-0, with Curious, Super and Bomber winning their matches. As is always the case with DeParture he’s had a lot of mixed online results lately with the high point being a 3-1 victory over GSL champion Zest. His ZvZ has also been looking rather solid—at least considering the volatility of online play and the state of the match-up in general. Curious’ last endeavours in the mirror match-up haven’t been crowned with success, resulting in his elimination from Code S against Dark and Losira. In fact his last ZvZ victory lies back in March—against DeParture. There is certainly more on the line for MVP in this match, as Afreeca is already out of the round anyways. That means more pressure on DeParture in a very even match.

Super <Orbital Shipyard> GuMiho

Super has a surprisingly strong record against terrans this year with a winrate of over 90%—being 28-3 in series—which is an almost Zest-like number. Of course Super managed to get these victories mostly from Chinese terrans in online cups, not from Korean competitions. However players such as INnoVation and most importantly GuMiho are also on the Afreeca players’ kill list. The terran and the protoss have met three times so far in 2016, Super came out ahead in all matches, winning their last SPL duel as well as a Bo5 and a Bo3 online. It’s safe to say he knows exactly what to do against players like GuMiho. The terran himself hasn’t been doing all too badly against protoss, but in SPL TvP is definitely his weak point. Super is the favourite to take this one, despite the map being statistically in favour of terran.

Patience <King Sejong Station> Ryung

For the first time in this season Patience must have looked at his opponent without despair: After battling sOs, soO, ByuL and Zest a lesser name such as Ryung is probably a welcome sight to behold. The protoss knows very well not to underestimate this adversary of course, as these two have met each other quite a lot already this year—Ryung took the lead in the earlier duels (going 3-0 in series, 8-2 in maps), Patience came back in their two latest encounters (improving the record to 2-3 in series, 7-10 in maps from his point of view). These are two players, who definitely have each other’s numbers, two crafty and very clever individuals. King Sejong Station provides a perfect battlefield for them as well: We’ve seen a lot of interesting builds on this map since its return to competitive play. We should expect both players to be at each other’s throat very quickly in this one.

Bomber <Dusk Towers> Forte

When Bomber and Forte met last round it almost looked like the MVP terran could keep up with his opponents’ tempo and tactics. For some time over the course of their match he did in fact keep up. However at one point Bomber’s drop play was too much to handle for his younger counterpart, overwhelming his main base and production line, forcing out the ‘gg’ and the 3-0 victory for Afreeca. Forte wasn’t able to win a map yet this season, but he’s shown improvement and the will to fight on. It’s very much doubtable that this will be enough to overcome Bomber—he might not be a top contender anymore, but the guy pulls crazy builds out of nowhere and makes them work thanks to his trademark macro against some really big names.

Ace: <Lerilak Crest>

Both teams have been in three ace matches so far, and rather awkwardly both are still yet to win one. For Afreeca, Bomber and aLive tried their luck; for MVP, GuMiho and DeParture. These are also the likely choices for ace this time, if there’s nothing special planned.

Predictions

Curious < DeParture
Super > GuMiho
Patience < Ryung
Bomber > Forte
Bomber < GuMiho

Afreeca 2 - 3 MVP

Samsung vs KT

Reality <Dusk Towers> Stats

After the upset against SKT last week the spirits at Samsung should be very high indeed. Especially Reality showed a good performance, beating Classic on King Sejong Station with aggressive tank-drop/liberator play. That card has been played and seen now though, so should the terran plan something similar on Dusk Towers Stats will be prepared. The protoss is playing a very solid season, being 11-5 so far. The one match-up he’s struggling—if you can call it that—with is PvT however (with his record there being “only” 5-4). Interestingly enough only Maru and KeeN were able to beat Stats, both taking two wins against him. With an online victory over GSL finalist TY just a few days ago it’s safe to say that the KT protoss is in good form though. Reality has been Samsung’s second motor behind Dear this season and is not to be underestimated. Stats should be slightly favoured however.

Dear <Frost> TY

Dear taking on TY is certainly the top match of the week. With a 9-4 record Dear has been the force behind Samsung’s victories this season and his own GSL run has undoubtedly put him back into the top ranks of Korea’s elite. TY of course has reached the finals of GSL, where he was beaten by his team mate Zest—despite showing great performances in the macro games of the series. The day after this final TY was dealt another defeat by a protoss team mate, this time losing 1-3 to Stats in Kung Fu Cup. This match will show if TY can get himself together and find his composure again, or if he falls off hard after his best career placing. Dear certainly is a tough nut to crack, especially as he was the one player to actually defeat TY on his run to the finals. Notably the Samsung player hasn’t faced a terran in an official match since then, so we don’t really know how exactly his PvT is looking at the moment—and TY might not know any more than we do. Since he’s well practiced in TvP right now it’s mostly going to be a mental issue: Can TY come back from the setbacks his colleagues have dealt him, or will Dear give him the last push, sending him over the edge of the cliff?

BrAvO <Overgrowth> Leenock

BrAvO is 1-1 in all three match-ups in SPL at the moment, Leenock is 1-3 against terran, so the statistical comparison definitely goes to the terran, especially as he has beaten ByuL this season, while Leenock’s only success was a win against KeeN. The zerg seems to be KT’s go-to player for Overgrowth however, being put out several times on this map already, so the coaching staff still feels comfortable sending him out—perhaps they expected a protoss or zerg to come out though. BrAvO is a dangerous player to face, as he’s got many tricks up his sleeve when it comes to pushes with mech units and positional play in the late game. We’ve seen ultralisks reign supreme on Overgrowth in ZvT before, but BrAvO could definitely go up against them, or end the game long before Leenock can get to this point. He should be the favourite to take a win for his team here.

Solar <Lerilak Crest> Zest

Putting Solar out in a critical situation in SPL is nothing SAMSUNG really should like to do, but it seems that there’s no other choice this time: The eternal SPL-struggler has to go up against Code S champ Zest and his team really needs him now. The zerg has had worse Proleague seasons—let’s not talk about the train wreck that was 2015 for Solar in SPL—but a 3-4 record for one of the best players of early LotV isn’t all too flattering. What exactly it is that hinders Solar from performing at his best in Proleague no one really knows. He at least was able to take some confidence from his win against Dark last week, especially given that it was Dark who beat him in the SSL Winners’ Final. Zest may be 12-4 this season and has a monstrous record against terran this year, but in SPL he’s only 2-2 against zerg so far. It may not be a glaring weakness, but it tells us that Solar does have a chance to win this first duel in LotV between them.

Ace: <Orbital Shipyard>

Samsung will most certainly close this one out with Dear, KT has to find a way of dealing with him. Zest dominated him in the GSL semifinals and is always an option, being the regular ace for his team anyways. TY might also be a more risky option, depending on how the whole series goes.

Predictions

Reality < Stats
Dear > TY
BrAvO > Leenock
Solar < Zest
Dear < Zest

Samsung 2 - 3 KT