TY has a much longer and better history of doing weird builds
If you think "weird builds" of Ty can win games in this series you don't understand the matchup at all.
Yeah is not too different from HotS where protoss could do weird stuff to throw off the terran and win, where terran could only do 3 rax into standard game because wierd stuff was just not viable.
TY 3-2 against showtime recently, let alone the condition of his bunghole after that encounter with a dear oh and dropping a game to myungsick Zest 4 - 0 or 4 - 1 if a timing happens to catch him off gaurd zest wont lose a macro game unless he takes early damage, terran weak now Zest isnt dropping games - put the house on zest, 2nd mortgage time
The reason I see Zest as a significant favourite is due to 2 factors:
1. TY is vulnerable in the early game (he has lost alot of LOTV games to early timings).
2. TY has in general had very poor timings in LOTV.
As an example of the latter,watch his game against Dark. For some reason he moves out at 140 against 140'ish supply of Corrupter/mass blings and tries to siege up a position in the middle of the map with turrets.
By doing that he is playing into the hands of the opponent. The proper way to play against Corrupter/Bling is to wait for 180 supply + upgrade timing and slow push while splitting heavily across the map (as seen by Maru vs Dark or uThermal vs Departure).
Another example - and more related to the matchup - is G1 vs Showtime. He is ahead 200 to 150 supply but doens't push his advantage as Showtime has High Templars and TY only bio/Liberators. In that situation Ty should build Ghosts earler so he could take advantage of the army size advantage.
And not taking advantage of an army size lead is a consistent problem for TY (as G1 against Dream also shows). He is giving the opponent a chance to comeback and that's very problematic when your opponent has a stronger late game composition as protoss have.
This is also why TvT is his best matchup because in this matchup he is on equal ground with his opponent in late game army strenght. And when he is on equal ground he can take advantage of his superior positional and mechanical skills. Whereas against toss he should lose to Tempest/HT in the late game.
If you watch his TvP macro games you will also notice that the way he gets ahead/win in the late game is when his opponents overextends and doesn't respect his counterdropplay. While TY's playstyle seems solid, this is actually somewhat deceptiv as he is often "all-in" on his dropplay doing damage. Generally, if you have the worse late-late game army, the solid way to play is to hit your timings and execute them very well. If you don't do that, your playstyle is kinda a gimmick and can be "figured out".
And that was exactly what Dear did. TY was ahead vs him, yet Dear just defended while teching up to Tempests andHT's which he used to defend all of his bases. TY didn't have succes with dropplay against Dear and he also lost the late game engagements since Ravens/Liberators can only hold position for so long against Tempests/HT.
Zest is - as Dear - unlikely to be overaggressive; and he especially won't do it if he has studied how TY plays. And against Zest's late game army control, Ty will most likely lose.
With regards to the early game, I think Zest is likely to get 1-2 free wins from the early game over the series. Part of that is due to TY generally being greedy, but also its due to a significant assymetry in the matchup as protoss have a tons of offensive tools whereas Terran has no way to get ahead in the early game in the matchup.
The only win condition I see for TY is if he (a) can get ahead in the early midgame and (b) learns how to manage timings well or if Zest stays on gateway (non HT) tech for too long.
TY 1 : Zest 0 - Fuck, yeah! TY very strong in one of the best LotV sets I have seen! TY 1 : Zest 1 - Zest ties it with a strong early push. TY 1 : Zest 2 - TY never challenged Zest's early gold expansions. What was that weird Thor push about? TY 2 : Zest 2 - Oh wow! TY is still in this. That was an exciting base race! Go go, TY! TY 2 : Zest 3 - Another game in which TY isn't able to harass Zest's early expansions. Still think he can win. TY 2 : Zest 4 - TY accidentally builds two factories and is forced into a hopeless all-in.
On May 03 2016 00:59 deacon.frost wrote: Is it worth watching? This weekend was one of the worst of my life(so far the worst) so I didn't have mood to watch it.
I would only watch game one imo, it is very good and exciting due to some luck. The rest is zest stomping terran souls into the dust as normal.
On May 03 2016 00:59 deacon.frost wrote: Is it worth watching? This weekend was one of the worst of my life(so far the worst) so I didn't have mood to watch it.
I would only watch game one imo, it is very good and exciting due to some luck. The rest is zest stomping terran souls into the dust as normal.
On May 03 2016 00:59 deacon.frost wrote: Is it worth watching? This weekend was one of the worst of my life(so far the worst) so I didn't have mood to watch it.
I would only watch game one imo, it is very good and exciting due to some luck. The rest is zest stomping terran souls into the dust as normal.
Agree on the first set. That was one of the most exciting games I have seen in LotV.
Hope you'll soon be able to sort out whatever troubles you in your life at the moment.
On May 03 2016 00:59 deacon.frost wrote: Is it worth watching? This weekend was one of the worst of my life(so far the worst) so I didn't have mood to watch it.
Hope you feel better!! Also I think game 1 and game 4 are the two best game, watch game 3 if you want some weird stuff, but if not then game 1 and game 4 are amazing