Upsets Galore

After an opening week where I said that the volatile results of early 2016 might be starting to settle, we’ve had possibly the craziest week yet. The results of SSL (and indeed the GSL Ro.8) have shown that Korea in general is still yet to hit the refined excellence of late Heart of the Swarm —understandable in such a new game—and that allows for plenty of upset potential. Creator’s return to winning ways, Bomber’s continued array of bafflingly archaic builds and BrAvO’s excellent TvZ on King Sejong Station against ByuL were just some of the weird and wonderful results that Proleague gifted to us last week. This week, we’ve got high flying Jin Air taking on MVP, Afreeca facing Samsung in a mid-table clash, while SKT take on CJ. Oh, and the main event—it’s Telecom Wars time.

Five Conclusions

1. A 6-18 record in Round 1. A 2-3 defeat in the opening week of Round 2 to SKT. All forgotten, as MVP crushed their way through CJ in a dominant 3-0 sweep. We’ve said all along that MVP aren’t just the Proleague whipping boys, and their performance last week capped the gradual improvement in their results. The really interesting part of their success is that unlike CJ (for example), they haven’t done it off a powerhouse pair of performances. GuMiho has been without a doubt their star player, but DeParture was a force early in the season, while Ryung is now two for two in Round 2 over soO and herO. Should all three start to click simultaneously, they’ve still got experienced snipers in Seed and Blaze with histories of success in teamleagues. After a rocky start, MVP are now back in the game.
   
   
2. Onto their opponents, and credit where credit’s due—CJ did well to bounce back strongly after such a hefty defeat. RagnaroK picked up his first win in two months, but herO was undoubtedly the crucial factor tipping the game CJ’s way. Dear definitely made some questionable decisions, but beating a player with a 9-1 map record in 2016 PvP is just the sort of big play that CJ require from herO if they’re to have any success this year.
   
   
3. The big clash of Week 2 was undoubtedly the rematch between Jin Air and KT, and as before, it was the Green Wings who came out on top. It’s a rivalry that’s becoming more and more one sided—since the start of the 2015 season, Jin Air are 9-2 up in the head to head matchup. The match itself followed the same pattern that’s had KT fans disappointed for round after round; Zest picked up a game, while everyone else crumbled. As I’ve mentioned before, it’s all very well bemoaning the lack of a successful fourth squad member, but worrying about the consistency of the rest of the core should be the priority. It’s notable that there are far fewer cries for Jin Air to find a fourth, for example, given how frequently Maru / sOs / Rogue deliver. Quick shoutout for Creator as well—a first win offline since January taking away the danger of facing Zest in an ace match.
   
   
4. While Jin Air have definitely grown into this Proleague campaign after their shaky start, last season’s champions SKT have had a couple of wobbles lately. After dropping a mere five maps in Round 1 (prior to their B-team’s 0-3 loss to Jin Air), they’ve dropped four to MVP and Afreeca. On the positive side though, it’s been four different players who’ve lost, and two of those (Dark and soO) have been the zerg superstars clutching out the two ace matches. It’s a pair of 3-2s that shows that they’re not (yet?) a team of unstoppable juggernauts, but also simultaneously a pair of wins that shows their remarkable strength in depth.
   
   
5. A quick word on ace match records so far this season:
   
   
   • SKT 3-0
     
   • KT 3-1
     
   • CJ 1-0
     
   • Samsung 1-2
     
   • Afreeca 0-2
     
   • MVP 0-3
     
   
   For the most part, a pretty revealing summary of how hard a dominant ace calibre player (or players) can carry.
   
   Note: Jin Air are yet to play an ace match.

KT vs SKT

Zest <Lerilak Crest> Classic

Classic finally returns to SKT’s line-up—right in time for the Telecom Wars! The protoss hasn’t been fielded in SPL since the 22nd of February, a consequence of some very weak games in the prior weeks. It once again proves SKT’s immense depth that they can simply bench a player of Classic’s calibre and still win a round of SPL without any problems. The match he got for his comeback may not be the most promising however: Zest recently advanced into the Ro4 of Code S without breaking a sweat, hasn’t lost a PvP since January and additionally has never lost a series to Classic in all of SC2. We’re happy to have you back, Classic, but after this one you might need another few weeks of rehabilitation.

TY <Orbital Shipyard> Dark

Recently crowned SSL champion Dark and Code S title contender TY meet in the second match, which is destined to be a great showdown going on how well these two players have done in the last few weeks. However there is a slight question mark over this duel: Dark struggled hard against terran in his last games—maybe due to his ZvP preparation for the SSL finals—and was beaten decisively by his teammate Dream and a bio-massing Bomber, while TY himself lost his last TvZ against ByuL, trying to go for sky-terran. With Dark being free to practice for SPL now, and TY having to prepare for a TvT in the Code S semis on Wednesday, this should be a really close match.

Stats <Frost> INnoVation

Stats had to concede defeat against Dark in the SSL finals, but he might get a bit of revenge against SKT in this match at least. INnoVation lost to Super in a huge upset last week, not being able to defend the protoss players’ aggression—a perfect opportunity for Stats to strike. The protoss has been doing okay against terran recently, but had to concentrate on different matchups for his SSL run. Interestingly enough Stats is unbeaten in three series against INnoVation since December 2014, showing great resilience against the terran powerhouse. This should be another close match, befitting of the telecom wars.

Leenock <Overgrowth> soO

In light of Losira’s Code S unsuccessful quarterfinals against Dear, it’s not surprising to see Leenock instead of him. With Losira’s recent success in ZvZ he might have been the better choice though, as soO is really strong in the match-up at the moment. He’s been the king of the matchup since 2014, and he’s unbeaten in four series so far in 2016. While he’s not in the world crushing form we’ve seen from him in the past in the two starleagues, his Proleague record (7-2) is still excellent, and last week he even saved his team from an embarrassing defeat against the Afreeca Freecs with a pair of wins over Patience and aLive. soO is the clear favourite here on one of his old stomping grounds, but with ZvZ being as volatile as it is right now anything can happen. Leenock was famed for years for some of the best ling / bane early-game ZvZ in the business, and if it descends into a similar knife fight scenario he could well take the game.

Ace: <Dusk Towers>

Zest almost certainly will be the ace player for KT Rolster after his dominating performance in GSL, with only a small chance of TY as an alternative. To counter Zest SKT will probably send out protoss-killer Dark or maybe Dream, as Dusk Towers is statistically a pretty good map for TvP.

Predictions

Zest > Classic
TY < Dark
Stats > INnoVation
Leenock < soO
Zest > Dark

KT 3 - 2 SKT

MVP vs Jin Air

GuMiho <Orbital Shipyard> Maru

It’s hardly believable, but this will be GuMiho and Maru’s first official game since 2012. Maru was able to take the spoils back then, and might well repeat that success four years later. He’s 12-2 so far in this season and has won all of his TvT games, defeating Bunny, INnoVation, TY and aLive. GuMiho is hard to judge as always. He’s been without a doubt one of MVP’s best players in Proleague (4-4), but that’s come solely over protosses and zergs. He’s actually yet to play a single offline TvT this year, and his sole games in Legacy were a win against KeeN and a loss to ByuN in the SSL qualifiers back in December. He has a very respectable 64% win rate in online TvT, but that’s come against less than stellar opposition—Apocalypse and TANGTANG are not the best preparation against Maru.

Ryung <Dusk Towers> sOs

Say what you want about Ryung, but he’s definitely not dodging the hard opponents. After victories over soO and herO the terran now faces the next juggernaut in sOs. This season has not been the season of sOs so far—he’s currently sporting an average record of 4-5. Sure, he’s only lost games to elite players (Dear, INnoVation, Stats, herO, Stats), but this surely signals that sOs is not playing at his best level at the moment. Ryung on the other hand has experienced some kind of renaissance of his skills, taking down aLive 3-1 in the WCA qualifiers in addition to his SPL successes. Don’t get all too excited though: sOs is still the favourite. Last week’s win over herO was less domination, more seppuku, and it’s hard to see sOs blundering in quite the same fashion. Ryung might be smart and has picked an excellent map—but sOs is brilliant.

horror <Lerilak Crest> Trap

Well, this is a name we haven’t seen in a long time. And when Trap is done with him he might vanish into obscurity for a bit longer. The protoss is looking to finally build up some consistency in SPL and is a huge favourite to do so against horror. horror actually looked OK in his last Proleague match against soO, matching the SKT zerg beat for beat before the gulf in class began to tell. Of course coach Choya only puts out players with a plan in mind and horror might have prepared something very special for Trap—but it’s not only going to take a great plan to make this upset happen, it’ll also take a good deal of luck.

DeParture <King Sejong Station> Rogue

It’s a shame that we might not get this last match, as DeParture and Rogue face off on King Sejong Station. ZvZ is a volatile mistress, but both players are in a very good form when it comes to dealing with this match-up. Rogue especially has been raking in some great ZvZ wins over the last weeks, and is 3-0 in Proleague over Armani, Impact and ByuL. He’s the slight favourite to take this, but DeParture is no one you want to joke about. He’s shown he can contend with the best in SPL.

Ace: <Overgrowth>

We’ve had two ZvT and one TvP so far on Overgrowth, with the aliens coming out ahead every time, but that is certainly not enough of a sample size to make any good conclusions. Fortunately we don’t really need conclusions to make out Jin Air’s favourite ace pick, as it surely will be Maru or maybe Rogue, if his special talents are needed. MVP sent out GuMiho against SKT on this map and only narrowly lost, so there should be no reason not to try again. He’s their most solid player by far—alternatively (and this is not even that unlikely with MVP) they have a sniper prepared for this map, who isn’t fielded for the regular games.

Predictions

GuMiho < Maru
Ryung < sOs
horror < Trap

MVP 0 - 3 Jin Air

Afreeca vs Samsung

Super <Orbital Shipyard> Dear

Super and his mates repeated MVP’s success from Week 1 last week and brought SKT to the ace match, with the protoss surprisingly winning his match against INnoVation. This should give him some confidence for his next match, but he’s playing against Dear, who might be in similar shape to when he won GSL and WCS Global back to back a few years ago. The Samsung toss has to prepare for a showdown with Zest in the GSL semis next, so Super will probably be nothing more than a stepping stone on that road. Coming off the back of his pair of defeats to herO, it’s going to be interesting to see how much Dear changes it up here, especially with Zest waiting. Don’t rule out a quick rush build to end things early on.

aLive <Overgrowth> BrAvO

A cool match-up is up next however: aLive faces the 2015 Season’s best TvT sniper BrAvO. His 1-3 defeat to Ryung in WCA might give the Samsung terran an edge in preparation, especially as BrAvO has not played the mirror in an official match since January—a 1-3 loss to Forte in Code A. Of course he really hasn’t been all too scary in LotV so far, while aLive has flourished in the new expansion and is in much better form. That said, BrAvO took out ByuL last week with an excellent siege tank push on King Sejong Station, which should boost his confidence quite a bit. This should be a close match.

Bomber <Lerilak Crest> Reality

Has anyone found out how Bomber beat Dark with a pure bio army last week? Yeah, neither have we. The Afreeca terran’s ability to simply mass bio and somehow win with it really shouldn’t surprise us anymore though—he’s been doing it since 2011. Having already scored TvT wins against Forte and Cure this season, while Reality only defeated Bunny so far, Bomber should actually come into this as the favourite. And you know what? If he uses higher tier units his chances might be even better! That’s not to disregard Reality though; the Samsung terran is a very skilled TvT player, and has been the team’s second best player in Proleague behind Dear. Historically, he’s been excellent especially when it comes to strategic positioning in the late game, so this should be a very cool match.

Patience <Frost> Armani

Patience recently beat Symbol 3-1 in WCA, which alongside his SSL run should make him a favourite in this match against Armani. The Samsung zerg has been doing well online—as always—but failed to make any impact in SPL or qualify for either league. He’s managed to avoid protoss players in online tournaments since February though, which might be a talent in itself, but it really doesn’t help all that much in this game. Patience has shown that he can deal with all types of zerg aggression and gameplay, so he should be ready for whatever Armani throws at him. Sending Armani out here really shows how little trust coach Stork has in Solar. And unfortunately that seems justified.

Ace: <King Sejong Station>

aLive or Bomber should be the Afreeca Freecs’ best choices for the ace position, while Samsung basically has no other option than sending Dear out—you don’t really want to give Solar any kind of responsibility in SPL if you want to win. Depending on how the TvTs go SAMSUNG might also decide to send on the terrans out, if Dear for some reason doesn’t feel comfortable in PvT.

Predictions

Super < Dear
aLive < BrAvO
Bomber > Reality
Patience > Armani
aLive < Dear

Afreeca 2 - 3 Samsung

CJ vs SKT

herO <King Sejong Station> INnoVation

In Week 3, herO finally returns to his beloved King Sejong Station. There were periods in the 2014 and 2015 Seasons, where herO was exclusively sent out on that map, and now it’s time for a belated reunion. The protoss had a mixed Week 2, so perhaps the comfort of home advantage is needed. He made horrible decisions against Ryung in SPL and basically threw the match away, lost to Cure 1-3 in Code S, but pushed CJ to victory over Samsung with two wins against their top player Dear. Fortunately for him INnoVation had to swallow a bitter pill himself last week, as he was beaten by Super. Since INnoVation has looked good in Proleague, that loss aside, and as herO showed some real weakness in PvT the terran is favoured here.

RagnaroK <Frost> Dream

After his win on Frost against Hurricane last week, RagnaroK once again is fielded on the same map, but he has a different match-up to prepare for this time. And it’s not one you envy him for, as he faces Dream, who has only lost one close TvZ series this year so far (to soO, online). Recently he’s beaten Curious, Losira and Dark—in dominant fashion. So what can we even count as an advantage for RagnaroK? Maybe the fact that he has a habit of cheesing terrans out of tournaments—he’s done it to INnoVation, ByuN and Dream in the SSL. In fact RagnaroK has never been defeated by Dream in their past two meetings. So even though the SKT terran is the gigantic favourite to take this match, CJ fans have a glimmer of hope on the horizon.

Bunny <Orbital Shipyard> Dark

What to say about this match? It’s kind of funny, really. Bunny should be the huge underdog here. While he’s performed admirably in GSL this year, edged out of his group with two tight losses to MyuNgSiK and Dear, he’s still whole tiers below the current SSL champ. However Dark was shut down in such an incredible way last week by Bomber, that one simply has to doubt his confidence in ZvT. On the other hand, Bunny has won his only two TvZs of the year, although Soulkey and Symbol are hardly the most challenging of opponents. It’s that unknown factor that is beneficial to the CJ terran here—he’ll know how Dark plays. Dark’s rush to hive against Bomber proved to be his undoing, as he failed to scout Bomber’s even greedier build. Triple CCs, mass barracks and double upgrades were already being pumped out before the zerg had any real idea what was going on. Against a weak opponent here, it’s likely he’ll default back to his regular aggressive style.

ByuL <Dusk Towers> soO

It seems that both teams may have expected a terran to come out on Dusk Towers and sent out their zergs to defeat them. Now they’ve got a high class ZvZ on their hands, in which soO should be the slight favourite. He has not lost a mirror match in 2016 yet, while ByuL’s been beaten in Proleague by Dark and Rogue. Losing to these players of course is nothing to be ashamed of, but it doesn’t exactly boost our confidence in him either.

Ace: <Lerilak Crest>

It’s doesn’t really matter which one of CJ’s aces gets sent out here; both herO and ByuL should be countered just fine by SSL champion Dark. His ZvP form is phenomenal and he’s already defeated ByuL this season, so he has the edge against both. Alternatively there are people like soO and Dream to back him up, should Dark not feel confident. Again, we can’t emphasise this enough—SKT have quite a few good players.

Predictions

herO < INnoVation
RagnaroK < Dream
Bunny < Dark

CJ 0 - 3 SKT