A New Start

After an agonizing week without any Proleague games, everyone’s favourite teamleague finally returns with four matches a week. For the start of Round 2 the Jin Air Green Wings fight SAMSUNG Galaxy and CJ Entus meet KT Rolster. On Tuesday, Round 1 winners SK Telecom T1 go up against MVP Chickenmaru and Jin Air are chosen for a second shift, this time fighting the Afreeca Freecs.

But before we get to the matches, let’s take a quick a look at the changes made between Round 1 and 2:

• The classic maps King Sejong Station, Overgrowth and Frost replace Ulrena, Prion Terraces and Ruins of Seras in the map pool; Lerilak Crest, Dusk Towers and Orbital Shipyard stay for another round.
  
  
• There have been some roster changes for all teams but the telecom giants:
  
  
  • Afreeca replace Life and SGW with Patience and DRGLing
    
  • Jin Air add HyuN to bolster their zerg lineup up to two strong players
    
  • CJ Entus lose Bbyong, who can’t play for undetermined health reasons, and is down to only five players
    
  • MVP replace coach Choya with Pet on the player roster, adding more depth on the zerg side of the team
    
  • Coach Stork added himself to SAMSUNG’s roster once again to be eligible to play

Five Conclusions

1. Time for a special playoff edition of Five Conclusions, and there’s no better place to start than with the Round Champions. SKT performed as we’ve come to expect, rocking up on Finals day and taking home the big prize. Their roster looks as ridiculous as ever, with an unexpected 2K for MyuNgSiK, while soO and INnoVation took the required snipe wins against Maru and sOs. They didn’t even need Dark (presumably saved for the ace), and it’s difficult to see Dream and Classic staying this quiet for much longer. The only consolation for any of their challengers is that the community’s wishes for BO7 round robin / BO9 playoff matches haven’t gone through.
   
   
2. If SKT were the week’s winners, then Afreeca were undoubtedly the ‘losers’. That’s more a reflection on how well the other three teams played though—it was always pretty likely that Afreeca would be thoroughly outgunned by the big three. They have a team of scrappers, capable of prepping for a BO1, but have no player of true ace quality that can provide the explosive multi-kill potential that can break open a playoff match. Still though, it’s undoubtedly been a great round for them, and they now sit clearly at the head of the middle order in Proleague.
   
   
3. Their conquerors, KT, played to form yet again. Stats and Leenock combined for the win against the weaker team in Afreeca, but yet again against a quality team, they relied on Zest to bail them out; and this time, he didn’t quite finish the job. Both KT and Jin Air are structured similarly, with a three-man core lineup alongside a random fourth pick. Maru and Zest are the two big aces of the team; Stats and Rogue are reliable players capable of chipping in consistently, while sOs and TY are two inconsistent players capable of incredible peaks. However, where the comparison breaks down is that the Jin Air trio simply deliver the goods far more often (with the notable exception of Zest, perhaps). You can bemoan KT’s lack of a fourth man all you want, but maybe the underperformance of TY should be the more pressing concern.
   
   
4. Onto Jin Air then, who’ve slipped into the same role they performed all last year—batter any team they meet in the all kill format, before losing to SKT. It’s four defeats in a row in an increasingly one-sided rivalry, and you have to look back to July 2014 for their previous win (notably over an almost completely different SKT squad). More worryingly though, it’s starting to look like SKT have the perfect composition to take out anyone on Jin Air. soO and Dark are likely to do the job against Maru (especially on the Round 1 map pool), while INnoVation extended his great record against sOs (17-8 all time, 7-2 since 2015), and they have plenty of squad members willing to have a crack against Rogue / a fourth player. Barring a revival of Maru’s TvZ, or sOs going on another incredible unplayable streak, it’s difficult to see this current dominance ending.
   
   
5. Time to choose a Round MVP then, and first of all it’s time to correct a misconception. MVP stands for Most Valuable Player; and thus is a completely different award from ‘Best Player of the Round’. Think of these awards as ‘the players who made the most difference to their teams’. And so, while INnoVation probably deserves the KeSPA voted award for ‘Best Player of Round 1’, after his 5-1 record in the regular round, and crucial win over sOs to clinch the Final, he’s not my pick here. It’s simply too hard to name a true MVP from SKT barring some truly heroic circumstances, given the sheer strength and dominance that the team have showed, and so these picks will be a little different.
   
   
   • MVP: Maru. Similarly to INnoVation, Maru picked up five wins in the round robin (5-0), but where things differered is that few of INnoVation’s wins were truly crucial (one against Leenock in a 3-2 win against KT). On the contrary, Maru often seemed like the sole reason Jin Air even got to the playoffs, not to mention his 3K against KT in the playoffs that sent them to the Final.
     
     
   • Runner up: Zest. Much like Maru, Zest was the factor taking KT from mediocre disappointments to true contenders. Two ace wins, and a 6-2 round robin record dragged KT to success. In fact, had he not lost to Rogue in that seventh set, he’d probably have swapped places with Maru.
     
     
   • 3rd place: Dear. A quick comparison: the top 2 players on Jin Air have 5-0 and 3-2 records in the round robin (Maru and Rogue respectively). The top 2 players on Samsung have 5-2 and 3-2 records (Dear and Reality respectively). That Jin Air finished 2nd, and Samsung 5th shows just how close run the round was, as well as how hard the rest of Samsung has let Dear down. Much like the previous two players on the list, Dear did all he could to drag his team up; unlike the other two, he didn’t quite manage to complete the job.
     
   
   

Jin Air vs Samsung

Rogue <Lerilak Crest> Armani

Jin Air are looking for a good start into the second round with this match, as Rogue is favoured to win this encounter over Armani. The SAMSUNG player hasn’t been fielded in Round 1, mostly concentrating on online cups and helping his team mates practice. Rogue on the other hand has already shown his solid ZvZ skill by taking wins over ByuL and Impact last round—Armani has to snipe the sniper, a difficult task.

sOs <King Sejong Station> Dear

The roles are much more unclear in the second match, as is the battlefield these two protoss players will meet each other. King Sejong Station has given us some of the most entertaining and high level games in the past, but in LotV it is entirely untested terrain. It does fit that sOs and Dear are the first players to once again step onto this map, as they are known for their cleverness and intelligence when it comes to adapting to such situations. Dear hasn’t lost a PvP yet this year, beating sOs among others, while the Jin Air player wasn’t all too successful in the match-up in Proleague—he only was able to defeat Zoun, but bit the dust against Stats, herO and Zest. Now, KSS is unfamiliar ground in LotV and sOs is the master of such terrain, so this might not mean as much as it would otherwise. It should be a glorious return to King Sejong Station either way!

Maru <Dusk Towers> Solar

Hailed as two of the best players of their respective races, a duel between Maru and Solar truly is a meeting between giants. With no individual league to play in Maru focused his abilities on SPL, staying undefeated during round robin play. Solar on the other hand went far in SSL, but struggled in Proleague—though fortunately not as much as last season. Interestingly enough both have shown weaknesses in the very match-up they now have to play: Maru lost to soO’s roach/ravager player in the Round 1 Finals, Solar had big problems defeating KT’s upstart terran SpeeD in Code S. Terrans so far seem to be slightly favoured on Dusk Towers, using the terrain and their tempo to gain an advantage, or playing crisp timings to cripple the opponent early on. Maru certainly is able to play both ways, so Solar will have to watch out and react accordingly—or just do the soO and jump at Maru’s throat first.

Trap <Orbital Shipyard> Reality

Trap continues to show inconsistency, getting eliminated by TaeJa in Code S after beating him in their initial match (going 2-3 against him in total), which is not a great sign for his PvT strength at the moment. Reality is a bit of an enigma himself however: He has actually been really solid in SPL, beating the likes of herO and Dark, and has been doing well online too—until he lost a Bo5 to MaNa, that is. So what to make out of these two players? I’d say this is a really even match, but Code S has given Reality lots of material of Trap to study and statistically the map is looking advantageous to terran, so the SAMSUNG player should be a slight favourite here.

Ace: <Frost>

Frost was traditionally a paradise for blink stalker play, so sending a protoss here could be a good idea for both teams—and it’s not like Jin Air and SAMSUNG lack excellent protoss players. Of course we don’t really know how any of the races will approach this map in the best way, so everything could happen. Jin Air still have Maru to send out and even possess another solid zerg option in HyuN now, while SAMSUNG could make surprising picks as well: Having Stork in the roster again feels like Chekhov’s Gun…

Predictions

Rogue > Armani
sOs < Dear
Maru > Solar
Trap < Reality
Maru > Dear

Jin Air 3 - 2 Samsung

CJ vs KT

herO <Lerilak Crest> Leenock

Some doubts surrounded herO after his early SSL elimination, but the protoss managed to get quite solid results in the last weeks, advancing into the Code S quarterfinals relatively easily—apart from the traditional PvP struggles—and getting several good wins in Proleague. His team is in a dire situation however, so his strength is needed more than ever before. Leenock on the other hand is imprisoned in a black hole of sadness himself, not getting on his feet at all. He was able to get an important win for KT in the Round 1 Playoffs, but failed everywhere else. Seeing how herO dismantled him in the Ro32 of Code S the CJ player should be the heavy favourite to bring his team up 1-0 here.

ByuL <King Sejong Station> TY

ByuL and TY have given us some amazing matches at the end of HotS in their SSL semifinal. ByuL was ultimately victorious back then, but now the balance of power has shifted: TY is giving his opponents headaches with his play, while ByuL seems to be really vulnerable at the moment. However the Bo1 of SPL also hasn’t been kind to TY so far—he did get beaten several times, most notably by SKT’s zerg duo of Dark and soO. As this will be our first ZvT on King Sejong Station we can’t say what might be planned strategically, but we know that TY has been of the best terrans in general, when it comes to abusing map features to their greatest effect—I wouldn’t be surprised seeing some tanks or liberators pop up at very inconvenient locations for ByuL. Early attacks are a possibility for both sides as well, as both have shown themselves very vulnerable to them in the past. I’d say the advantage here lies with TY, but we know that ByuL isn’t very fond of staying dead after being taken down...

Hush <Dusk Towers> Zest

Whatever happens in the first two matches, CJ really need to win them, because the following two maps aren’t very favourable to them. Hush is often praised and thanked by many players for his cleverness in creating builds and analyzing opponents, but so far he wasn’t able to use these abilities to his own advantage. Zest on the other hand is in full monster-mode at the moment, and it should be known to everyone what that means. The CJ protoss also has lost his last Proleague match to Zest in March, which doesn’t exactly build more confidence for this match. If Hush doesn’t get some brilliant idea and executes it perfectly KT should have this one.

Bunny <Orbital Shipyard> Stats

CJ’s only remaining terran has been exclusively used as a TvT sniper up to this point in SPL, but as he’s the sole team member of his race now he’ll have to step up and take more responsibility in the team. The big question is: Is he ready to do that? Having advanced to the Ro16 of Code S certainly isn’t a bad sign. However he’ll face a SSL finalist here—one that has shown some weaknesses to terran, losing to Maru (which really isn’t a problem) and KeeN (which is of more concern). So can Bunny do the impossible and take this map for his team and with it maybe the victory? CJ really need a miracle to survive this round somewhat intact, so they’d better pray that Stats doesn’t have Holy Hand Grenade with him to deal with the Killer Bunny.

Ace: <Frost>

Another ace match, another possibility of Frost showing up on Monday. With a blink-y kind of map as this one herO seems to be the obvious choice, so a PvP should be kind of likely here, as KT will probably choose Zest to come out. There is of course the alternative of a ByuL/TY rematch as well—KT have used the terran as ace before, CJ is alternating between herO and ByuL anyways.

Predictions

herO > Leenock
ByuL < TY
Hush < Zest
Bunny < Stats

CJ 1 - 3 KT

SKT vs MVP

soO <Frost> Ryung

Whatever happens on Monday, Frost will make an appearance for certain on Tuesday. The SKT zerg is definitely the favourite to win this match, being a different caliber of player than his opponent. But there is the MVP-factor here: Choya wouldn’t send out Ryung on a map like Frost—a new and unexplored map in LotV—if there wasn’t a good plan behind it. soO should scout very thoroughly in this one, otherwise Ryung might find a sneaky path to victory.

INnoVation <Dusk Towers> DeParture

In a rematch from Round 1 DeParture gets another chance to upset INnoVation—or utterly implode again. Dusk Towers certainly isn’t favourable to him statistically, but for his playstyle a 2-player map is actually not that bad: He’ll know where to find the terran and he’ll probably be very aggressive. If that approach fails however, INnoVation is looking forward to another easy day at work.

MyuNgSiK <Orbital Shipyard> GuMiho

MyuNgSiK has proven his worth to SKT in the Round 1 Finals by taking out both Cure and Rogue in typical fashion—dirty and, some might say, evil. After that he delivered a good performance against Maru as well, so his chances against GuMiho don’t look all too bad. The Towel Terran has been mostly playing online cups in the last weeks, getting solid results overall. His TvP isn’t looking very impressive however, so MyuNgSiK is a slight favourite here. You’ll never know what you get with GuMiho though, so if he takes the initiative away from his opponent he has a good shot.

Dark <King Sejong Station> Forte

This one doesn’t really feel like a fair match, more like a sacrifice. King Sejong Station should give Dark some good memories, as he played some of his best matches against terran here, showing off his experimental roach/baneling/corrupter style. Forte has been doing better in LotV than ever before, playing well online—but against a player like Dark, what hope is there? Maybe a few surprising moves and map abuse can even the odds a bit, but even then Dark stays the heavy favourite.

Ace: <Overgrowth>

Looking at statistics from HotS zerg have done best on Overgrowth, oftentimes taking early gold bases followed up by aggression to build up momentum and cripple the opponent. SKT could very well send soO or Dark out as the ace here, but INnoVation shouldn’t have any problems on the map either. For MVP the choice is essentially between two players: GuMiho and DeParture. But an ace match is quite unlikely anyways, as SKT should sweep MVP.

Predictions

soO > Ryung
INnoVation > DeParture
MyuNgSiK > GuMiho

SKT 3 - 0 MVP

Jin Air vs Afreeca

Rogue <Lerilak Crest> KeeN

Rogue once again starts for Jin Air on Lerilak Crest, but he has a different match-up than on Monday. With KeeN having his last victory over a noteworthy zerg in January against Curious, Rogue should go into this quite confident. KeeN is a good player, no doubt about it, but especially TvZ seems to be troublesome for him at the moment. His last offline match was against Leenock in the Round 1 Playoffs, but he wasn’t able to defeat the struggling zerg. This should start off Jin Air well once again.

Cure <Orbital Shipyard> Bomber

Cure definitely is in better form than his opponent. Bomber didn’t get anything noteworthy done in the last months, whereas Cure at least dominated his Code S group and seems to be on the way upwards once more. Both players haven’t had the best SPL results so far this season, getting average scores—we’ll see if Cure can out multitask Bomber, or if the Afreeca veteran manages to hold himself together. Jin Air’s terran should be the favourite however.

Maru <Frost> aLive

Maru against aLive might be one of the top games this week and is special in another way as well: Both of these players met each other for the first time all the way back in 2010 (Preliminaries for GSL January 2011)—having both of them still around and playing in SPL is quite impressive! Maru is the favourite in this meeting however, having beaten TY, INnoVation and Bunny so far this season. Indeed, the Little Psychopath hasn’t lost a TvT in LotV at all yet. aLive on the other hand has shown inconsistency in online cups, losing to GuMiho and NaTuRaL (MVP’s young rookie).

sOs <Overgrowth> Patience

Patience’s debut for Afreeca could certainly be more pleasant for him, as he faces none other than sOs. The new Afreeca player had some excellent PvP matches in his SSL run, before being absolutely demolished by Stats with a 0-4 score. sOs himself had his issues with PvP as well however, as stated above. With Overgrowth being the battleground sOs gets the benefit of the doubt though: Terra incognita is advantageous for a crazy explorer such as him.

Ace: <Dusk Towers>

Jin Air should definitely send out Maru, should it come to an ace match. We have more trouble finding an appropriate ace for the Afreeca Freecs. They certainly could have someone prepared as a sniper here, or they might send a solid player like aLive, who played the teams’ only ace match so far.

Predictions

Rogue > KeeN
Cure > Bomber
Maru > aLive

Jin Air 3 - 0 Afreeca