Break Over

After a brief break for the Lunar New Year festivities last week, Proleague is back on the schedule for the weekly grind. Week 1 saw our first glimpse of the revamped Afreeca lineup, as well as dominant displays from last year’s finalists. Week 2 promises to be just as special—we’ve got our first Telecom derby, a double dose of MVP, as well as a potential fan favourite clash between Bomber and Maru. Join us for a quick recap of events so far, and a preview of this week’s matches.

Five Conclusions

1. Where else to start but with SKT? Last season’s champions have kicked off this year’s campaign just as they ended 2015. Dark eased his way past Super with a sharp ravager timing, while Classic and INnoVation outmuscled Curious and KeeN in the late game for an easy 3-0. Let’s not forget either that they could have fielded an equally powerful triple bill of Dream, MyuNgSiK and soO. They remain the runaway favourites to win the entire league again, and with oov’s strong statements , it looks like they’re taking their title defence very seriously indeed.
   
   
2. Meanwhile, CJ seem to have retained the same issues that dogged them last year. In Round Robin matches last year where either herO or ByuL lost their initial matches (including matches where one of the two won out in the ace match), CJ had a miserable 5-10 record. Relying on their dual ace partnership to deliver week in, week out is unsustainable, and ties in with their struggles in the all-kill format last year. With herO at IEM Taipei, it shouldn’t have been that big a surprise that they were beaten by a resurgent Afreeca outfit. Simply put, they need their supporting players to step up.
   
   
3. If there’s one team that’ll run SKT close though, it’ll be last season’s runners up. Unlike CJ, they coped admirably with one of their core away on IEM duty. Maru dismantled Blaze with ease, and Rogue won out in a tight match against Ryung. DeParture struck back for MVP, continuing his upwards trajectory since his Gfinity win last year, before Cure finished things off to earn a 3-1 for Jin Air. If Cure can recover from his year long slump last year to return to late 2014 standards, Jin Air will have a four man lineup to rival anything SKT can send.
   
   
4. Speaking of recurring themes in Proleague, Solar continued his miserable run of teamleague form. Losing to TY isn’t too big a deal—the KT terran has certainly kicked it up a notch in the new expansion—but the way he crumbled in the late game in his weakest matchup would have been concerning. Paired with a strange decision from Stork to send BrAvO out as a prepared sniper for Zest in the Ace Match, it was another case of ‘close, but not close enough’ for a Samsung team that could well sneak into the playoffs should everything click. I'm far from qualified to advise a legend of the game, but Stork—Solar is currently 40-0 in LotV ZvP matches (95-14 in sets). He’s probably quite good at it.
   
   
5. Finally, credit must be given to the Afreeca Freecs. Ex-StarTale have never had the greatest luck in teamleagues, from 2012’s controversies, to the SBENU fiasco, and of course to certain recent events that remain unresolved. A comprehensive shellacking from SKT in the opening game of the season was hardly an ideal starting point, but a convincing victory against CJ has truly kickstarted their 2016 campaign. Let’s hope that they’ve finally found some true stability.

CJ vs MVP

herO <Orbital Shipyard> Seed

CJ Entus and MVP kick off Week 2 for us, and herO has earnt an instant recall after his Taiwan excursion. He’s probably not too pleased that he’s landed Seed—PvP remains his main weakness, and he’s lost his last three matches in the mirror, dumped out of the SSL by twin losses to Patience and Hurricane, and from IEM by sOs (albeit 1-2,1-2 and 2-3; so not he’s not hopeless). An interesting side plot is that both are in the same group for GSL (played on Friday), adding some extra intrigue.


ByuL <Ruins of Seras> Blaze

Predictably, ByuL also makes an appearance for CJ this week. Up against Blaze, it’s another opportunity to see a pair of players who’ve had limited game time in Legacy so far. ByuL’s queen drop was hilariously effective against Super last time round, and his 2-0 win over Trust in the first round of the SSL was pretty convincing, but Blaze should be a different prospect. He’s clearly not a top tier protoss, but the danger he presents in the Best of One teamleague format shouldn’t be underestimated (see his 8-4 record last year, for example).


RagnaroK <Prion Terraces> DeParture

Onto two of the most promising up and comers in the scene. Neither had much success at all individually in all their years grinding away in WoL and HotS (DeParture’s Gfinity title last year not withstanding), and yet both look to be on the up this year. DeParture has finally made Code S for the first time, while RagnaroK is unbeaten in the SSL, with a spot in the top six guaranteed. On probably the most zergy map in the pool, it’ll be interesting to see which of the youngsters comes out on top.


Bbyong <Ulrena> GuMiho

And just to wrap things up, we have a deliciously tasty TvT lined up. Bbyong and GuMiho are two of the most inventive terrans on the circuit, and on such a strange map as Ulrena, who really knows what madness either will come up with. Since the new year, GuMiho’s finally been getting the hang of the new expansion—45% win rate in Legacy in 2015, 72% in 2016. Sure, a decent amount of that has been his usual binge feeding off online tournament fodder, but you can only beat what’s put in front of you. Meanwhile, Bbyong looked decidedly second best against aLive last week; hopefully the fortnight off will have done him some good.

ACE: <Dusk Towers>

It’s pretty inconceivable that CJ would send out a player other than herO or ByuL for the ace match, while Choya mixed up his choices all throughout the 2015 season, often sending a player who wasn’t even part of the starting lineup. We’re all just hoping that after naming himself on MVP’s Proleague roster, he’ll strip off the suit one of these days to have a go himself.

Predictions

herO > Seed
ByuL > Blaze
RagnaroK < DeParture
Bbyong < GuMiho
herO > GuMiho

CJ 3 - 2 MVP

Afreeca vs Jin Air

Curious <Prion Terraces> Trap

Set 1 of Monday’s second match gives us one of the more interesting ties of the week. Trap is a player famed for his strong PvZ in the past; a matchup that’s proved to be his weakest statistically in his nascent Legacy career. That makes sense—his PvZ in the past was built off a keen sense for timings and awkward attacks. All that accumulated knowledge is now pretty much useless with the fresh start in this expansion, and it’ll clearly take some time for the clinical zerg sniper to shine through again. Meanwhile, Curious was comprehensively outplayed by Classic last time round; a player whose late game was then similarly taken apart by Dark in their SSL match. Time to see if Curious has picked anything up.


Super <Ruins of Seras> Rogue

After receiving the honour of being the first player in the 2016 season to take on the role of playing twice in a week, Super also received the dishonour of becoming the first player to lose twice as well. Cheesed out twice on Ulrena by zergs, he’s run into yet another strong zerg this week on Ruins of Seras. Rogue’s one of the most multi-talented and unpredictable zergs in the business, and after a strong showing in ZvT last week, it’s time to see what he can do against protoss.


aLive <Ulrena> Cure

If you were trying to pick out two of the strongest terrans we’ve seen so far in 2016, chances are slim that you’d have plumped for aLive and Cure. Both trended in a downwards spiral last year, with ever decreasing success, and so their resurgence this year has been enjoyable to watch. Both have made it to Code S, while aLive is one of the two terrans left in the SSL. Both have trended towards ultra-standard terran play in the past, although aLive’s certainly capable of wheeling out cheese when he wants, and this should be a much more informative TvT than our previous mirror on Ulrena.


Bomber <Orbital Shipyard> Maru

It’s certainly a hell of a week for terran fanboys this week. Mvp may be the king of Code S, and YugiOh the king of Code A, but this week, we’ll get our first showdown for the throne of Code B. With no adepts or protosses in sight to drive either player mad, it should be an entertaining slugfest between the two. Everything should point in Maru’s favour, but Bomber’s always been infuriatingly predictably unpredictable, so let’s just settle in for the ride.


Ace: <Lerilak Crest>

The ace player for Jin Air should almost certainly be Maru, unless he plays poorly and sOs deigns to actually play a match in Korea after his dual starleague exits. Afreeca is an altogether stranger case. Despite his poor performances last week, Super’s locked in for appearance number three this week, suggesting that he’s possibly got the best shot at it until he proves otherwise.

Predictions

Curious > Trap
Super < Rogue
aLive > Cure
Bomber < Maru
Super < Maru

Afreeca 2 - 3 Jin Air

KT vs SKT

Leenock <Ulrena> INnoVation

Leenock has been a statistical beneficiary from zerg having the upper hand in ZvP . 50% win rates in both ZvZ and ZvT contrast with his 77% win rate in ZvP. Unfortunately for him, he’s up against a terran tonight; fortunately, that terran is INnoVation. That’s certainly not a phrase you’d have ever heard uttered from 2012-2015, but INnoVation’s weaknesses in Legacy TvZ are somewhat established now after he was dumped out of the SSL by assorted roach / ravager / nydus plays from RagnaroK and soO. Assuming INnoVation carries on as normal without altering his proclivities at all, there’s more than enough for Leenock to work on emulating. Should Leenock let INnoVation assert himself on the game though, he might find things a bit trickier.


Stats <Orbital Shipyard> MyuNgSiK

Next up, SKT’s new recruit gets his debut in Proleague. It certainly hasn’t been an ideal start for MyuNgSiK, who’s barely had a look in since his switch. Two quick 0-2s from Dark and aLive knocked him out from the SSL, while his GSL Preseason win meant that we didn’t get to see him in Code A. That means it’s impossible to tell where he truly stands at the moment—he racked up a host of impressive wins in PvP in the off-season (2-0 against Zest, 3-0 against Dear, for example), but we’ve seen already that results from a couple months back are practically irrelevant given the instability of the meta. It’s far easier to back the more recently tested quality in Stats for now.


TY <Lerilak Crest> soO

Now onto the undoubted in-form player of Legacy so far. Since the second week of the GSL Preseason, TY has dropped a single match—throwing away a 2-0 lead in the crucial final match and the associated Code S seed—at a 33-6 set record. His late game harass tore Solar apart last week, who had no answer for tankivacs. soO though is perhaps in a decent position to face up to TY. He’s always been mechanically unquestionable, and should he find an answer to the mobility issues posed by speedy medivacs, it will be very interesting indeed to see if he can match the KT terran. TY’s early game defence has looked great in Legacy so far, so early aggression might not be the best choice, but with soO’s obvious strength in HotS-esque muta-ling-bane, and roach aggression and perhaps Dark’s corruptor style options that are open to him, he’s certainly got some decisions to make.


Zest <Dusk Towers> Dark

Finally, we’ve got what should be one of the most anticipated matches of the week. Fresh off his clash with Maru in Code A, Zest has to go straight into another blockbuster match against Dark before his Code S group on Wednesday. The KT Rolster ace hasn’t played a noteworthy PvZ in 2016; on the other hand, Dark has recently beaten MyuNgSiK, Super and Classic in the SSL / Proleague at a combined 6-0 score. His 3-0 over Classic in particular should give Zest plenty of thought; if he fails to find a solution to Dark’s lurker play, there’s little hope of success here. So who will come out on top? The noted PvZ star and one of the smartest protosses in the game, who hasn’t shown us anything in the matchup for months? Or the ZvP failure, who’s emerged from his shell to crush in the matchup since the switch in expansions? It’s going to be brilliant to find out.


Ace: <Prion Terraces>

Normally, I’d automatically nominate Zest here and leave it at that. However, Prion Terraces is a dodgy map for protoss, especially if KT smell a zerg ace for SKT. TY is the smart pick (alternatively Leenock if they trust his ZvZ) but KT will still probably send Zest anyway. Meanwhile, should Dark play well in set 4, I’d back him to come out for a rematch.

Predictions

Leenock < INnoVation
Stats > MyuNgSiK
TY > soO
Zest < Dark
Zest < Dark

KT 2 - 3 SKT

MVP vs Samsung

GuMiho <Ulrena> Dear

If there’s one quality that Choya brings, it’s an ability to rejuvenate and get the very best out of his squad. The difference between last season’s Round 1 lineup (a core of YongHwa, Losira and MarineKing) and this season’s is telling. Three of MVP’s players play twice this week, while out of Week 1’s four, only Ryung has dropped out for Week 2. With Losira and YongHwa gone, GuMiho is now indisputably the leader of MVP, having served with Choya ever since the early FXO days (and dual GSTL championships). Yet again though, this is a case of two unknowns. GuMiho’s had a lot of success online against a range of middling protosses, while Dear hasn’t played any relevant PvTs this year. The Samsung ace has looked strong and decisive in PvP, but those recent PvPs are pretty much all we’ve seen (wins against Zest and sOs). I’d hope that GuMiho getting dual appearances on Ulrena signifies some comfort on the map, but that sure didn’t help Super in Week 1.


Seed <Orbital Shipyard> Journey

Another player playing twice is Adept_Seed, last seen in PvT protossing Bomber out of the GSL. While he did say that he had alternative strats available, we didn’t get to see them when they were rendered redundant by the sheer power of shoving a large lump of adepts into the terran natural. This is our first look then at a post-nerf Seed in offline PvT (note—he’s lost every online PvT since the Bomber series), so time to see if he can back up his words with some results.


Forte <Lerilak Crest> Solar

Forte has been a player who’s impressed most in TvT, be it his 3-1 win over BrAvO in Code A or his unforgettable win against Cure in Proleague 2014. However, his Legacy TvZ is actually his best statistical matchup, although pretty much every notable match was played in 2015. ZvT also happens to be Solar’s worst matchup statistically. Even so, short of fervent belief in the Solar Proleague Curse, there’s little reason to truly expect a Forte win here for even the most die hard of MVP fans.


DeParture <Dusk Towers> Hurricane

Finally, MVP’s latest hotshot gets another runout. DeParture has actually racked up quite a few recent wins in ZvP, both offline (Creator in Proleague, Stats in Code A) and online (Trap and Super in the Kung Fu Cup Qualifiers). The Stats series in particular was especially well played, and throughout the past year he’s shown an affinity for creating builds crafted specifically for the occasion. On the other hand, Hurricane’s just come off a tough 2-3 defeat to Soulkey in Code A. Both of these players have served their time behind the scenes, grinding away, ever burdened with the dreaded ‘promising’ tag that reminds them that they’re yet to actually achieve anything. This year could be their time to kick on.


Ace: <Prion Terraces>

Hopefully Samsung won’t blunder again and fail to send out their best player in Solar this week. In response, MVP sending a protoss would be suicidal, and GuMiho or DeParture are the likely suspects.

Predictions

GuMiho > Dear
Seed < Journey
Forte < Solar
DeParture > Hurricane
GuMiho < Solar

MVP 2 - 3 Samsung