WCS Season One
Challenger League

TargA vs Kas
Snute vs PsiOniC
Starbuck vs FireCake
ForGG vs MarineLorD
Nerchio vs NaNiwa
Bunny vs PtitDrogo

Brackets and standings on Liquipedia

Saturday, Jan 24 2:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00)

TargA vs Kas

As a competitor and professional, nothing feels better than being considered the best at something. Being number 1, no matter how niche or specific the group. In SC2 and especially for foreigners, being considered the best of your country is a special badge of honor, especially with the revamped WCS system that no longer determines the champions of each country. For TargA and Kas, it has been a struggle trying to become the best of their nation.

For TargA, Snute has stood his in way since late 2012. Norway is a relatively "young" Starcraft country (in terms of being considered one of the strongest), and it can be argued that once upon a time, TargA was its best import. When he reached the semifinal at Dreamhack Valencia 2012 by beating LucifroN and HerO before losing to TaeJa, and it was supposed to be his breakout moment. Then, 3 months later, Snute won HSC6. Since then, TargA has remained a strong player and an integral part of Team Norway. He was instrumental in their back-to-back NationWars titles playing as their captain, and even reached a Ro8 in WCS EU in 2013. The last year was much less kind to TargA as he only made 1 Premier League appearance, though he did reach the Ro16 at Dreamhack Moscow.

For Kas, it's a little more blurry. At first there was WhiteRa, then Dimaga, maybe fraer, and now Bly. The position of Ukraine's strongest champion has always been in contention, and he's always been up there trying to make a claim. The problem with Kas has always been a spot of inconsistency. Whenever he places high in a tournament like TSL3 in 2011, IEM Kiev in 2012, or IEM Katowice in 2013, he always follows it up with a stinker. His inability to string together several strong tournament runs in a row has been the main obstacle in Kas being considered one of the best Europeans, but on a good day, the man can beat anyone. And he's stayed consistently inconsistent since 2011, and there are few indications that suggest he will either drop off or reach higher in 2015.

If we follow Kas's tournament patterns, he should make Premier League again this season; in both 2013 and 2014 he only missed out in each 2nd season. His brand of standard, stable terran isn't something easily abused or manipulated by the metagame, and there's a good chance he just reaper expands into hellion pressure in 4 of the 5 potential games. TargA on the other hand has a mixed bag of tricks, from atypical roach based compositions to standard ling-bane. Once considered a successful BL-Infestor player, TargA isn't quite as good as Snute with swarm hosts, but it isn't out of the question either. If the Norwegian zerg can hold steadfastly against Kas' attacks and harassment, he'll be in a good position to take the match. But only one of them can reach Premier League and challenge for the title of WCS Champion, and I think Kas' WCS pattern will continue.

Prediction: TargA 1 - 3 Kas

Snute vs PsiOniC

Fresh off his first tournament win in 2015, Liquid.Snute is still every inch the world’s best foreigner and the clear favorite to take this Challenger match. Just a few days ago, the Norwegian Zerg demonstrated his supremacy at the OSC Global All-stars tournament by taking out five fellow foreigners in a perfect 12-0 run. While Snute typically shines in weekender tournaments, he had struggles with WCS Europe last year. After his top 8 finish in S1, Snute appeared to be a serious challenger to Korean dominance in the European league. But in the following season, he took a shockingly early exit in the Ro16. Most people chalked it up to a bad day, but then Snute lost even earlier in S3. Now with most of his Korean rivals having returned home, Snute has a real chance to once and for all put an end to the “best foreigner debate”—that is, if he can improve his preparation skills.

The first speedbump on Snute’s potentially long and arduous road is the enigmatic protoss PsiOniC. The 19-year-old Frenchman made his way through the 6th European qualifier with wins over notable players such as ShoWTimE and Strelok. Unfortunately, his WCS CL debut may very well end up being a short, agonizing memory. With only a measly 49.0% winrate in PvZ, I just don’t see how he could withstand Snute Swarmhosts. Then again, psiOniC is a relatively obscure player with scant replays to study. He will have the element of surprise on his side, but it would take one hell of a surprise to upset Snute.

Prediction: Snute 3 - 0 PsiOniC

Starbuck vs FireCake

While this may not be the most anticipated matchup when you have big names like ForGG, Snute, Naniwa, and others in Challenger League, this face off between two atypical players could end up being the best ZvZ in a while. Or, it could end up being the worst ZvZ of all time. Odds are split between the two, but as it's in the middle of the broadcast schedule it looks like you're going to have to watch it anyway.

For those who don't follow the European scene but find Starbuck's name familiar, then it might be because of his reputation for wacky builds. Zerg isn't exactly known as a flexible race, especially when it comes to building positioning, but Starbuck is one of the few zerg players that really likes proxying his buildings. Yes, he's even done proxy burrowed infestors. And he did it against MMA on Frost and won. Think about that for a second. Unfortunately for Starbuck, his career hasn't quite taken off. He reached Premier League at the end of 2013 but could only sustain it for another season, falling to Challenger and out of WCS entirely over the next two seasons. He did reach the Ro8 of Dreamhack Valencia by upsetting the heavy favorite First, but it was the exemption rather than the norm. Starbuck remains one of the most entertaining players in Europe, but showing good games isn't enough to make a career despite what Korean interviews suggest.

While Starbuck's reputation for atypical games is positive, FireCake's is quite the opposite. Just utter the phrase "FireCake vs MaNa" and you'll hear an angel regurgitating its wings. Then it picks the bones from the barf and gouges its eyes out. That's still a prettier picture than the game in question, and if you've never seen it I suggest than you don't. Unless you have 3+ hrs to spare and a rabid curiosity for the abominable. That of course doesn't take away from the fact that FireCake is one of the most famous and feared swarm host players in Europe. The controversy follows him even outside of the game, and it's unfortunate that such a talented player has to be surrounded by so much negativity, whether it is his own fault or not. Unfortunately for FireCake, it doesn't appear like he'll have an opportunity to redeem himself this season.

With a 46% winrate in HotS ZvZ, FireCake has one of the lowest Aligulac ratings in WCS EU Challenger. Starbuck on the other hand has a strong winrate of 64%, suggesting the odds are in his favor. In fact, overwhelmingly so. While I don't think that their gulf in skill is that large or large at all, Starbuck is both the statistical and personal favorite.

Prediction: Starbuck 3 - 1 FireCake

ForGG vs MarineLorD

Since his emotional title run at Dreamhack Winter, Mill.ForGG has been playing some of the best Starcraft 2 of his entire career. Earlier this month, he went a perfect 8-0 in the IEM Taipei qualifiers where he defeated GoOdy, Petraeus, TargA, and Harstem to qualify for the main event. Two days later, ForGG qualified for WCS Challenger on his very first attempt. The last Korean pro left in Europe, ForGG is the soldier who continues to cause chaos behind enemy lines. The Millenium Terran has spent nearly two years in Europe, and it seems he is finally coming into his element. With the departure of MC, MMA, StarDust, YoDa, and San, the stage has been set for ForGG to seize control of Europe.

His journey to the top begins today with a TvT—his best matchup by far. Boasting a 71.5% winrate in this matchup, ForGG should have minimal trouble with his Challenger match. He favors quite a unique mech style that often opens with hellion/banshee. With this mobile composition, ForGG can secure map control and harrass while he establishes an economy that can sustain full scale mech production. This style has caused much heartache for European Terrans, but MMA proved it is not unstoppable just last season.

ForGG’s opponent and fellow teammate, Mill.MarineLorD would do well to study those replays. This young French Terran will be making his WCS CL debut against one of the finest TvTers around… not a good way to start the year. Here is a player who has made a name for himself through online cups, having won two ZOTAC Cups earlier last year. One of ForGG’s possible practice partners, MarineLorD could have the advantage of knowing what his teammate will do. But most importantly, can he keep his nerve and execute against one of Europe’s brightest and best?

Prediction: ForGG 3 - 0 MarineLorD

Nerchio vs NaNiwa

Before there was Artour Babaev, there was Artur Bloch.

Acer.Nerchio is one of the few OGs of foreign SC2 who has remained fairly competitive throughout the entire history of the game. An innovative zerg, he’s managed to stay relevant in every swing of the balance cycle, always finding ways for his race to fight against any obstacle. Nerchio was one of the first pros to take a half-time approach to playing, with his studies often taking the forefront. Despite this academic focus, he still took several podium finishes throughout his career, from the early days of IPL2, to the foreign slugfest of early 2012, to the glorious era of ZvFuckYouDon’tCareWhere’sMyCheck.

Nerchio has always been a flexible player. His background in Brood War bolstered his mechanics, allowing him to be able to fall back on safe macro play at any time. However, he tends to favor slightly more aggressive builds. Mutalisk harass and roach pressure have been hallmarks of his play, relying on gaining map control for later midgame pushes. With a strong history in the BL/infestor era, Artur has no problem with drawing out a map to the ultra late game. Though he hasn’t shown as much proficiency with swarmhosts, his analytic approach to the game means it’s only a matter of time before he masters this strategy as well.

Last year was the first time that the Polish Zerg didn’t have a Ro8 finish. His path in qualifying for Challenger was far from world class. He recently joked that he was more of a semi-pro than Naniwa was. Despite all of this, Artur is a champion and one of the greatest players to ever come out of Eastern Europe. With his chances of Premier resting on a single Bo5, anything is possible.

It’s not often that I say this, but… I can’t adequately write NaNiwa’s story. It’s a tale of intense, almost fanatic, dedication to his craft. A man who throws his all into the game, who isn’t afraid of anything or anyone. The King of the North cares not for anything but winning. Not for you or I, not for money, not for the prestige—and definitely not for long and inspiring TL previews—but for a single title: The Greatest. Whatever bridges he may burn, whomever he may insult or rile up, they are but unimportant distractions on the path to victory. Naniwa is our Sonny Liston. Outside the venue, some hate him for who he is, what he's done. Some love him, appreciate his attitude. But once he’s on that stage… the whole world pays attention and watches, with baited breath, a master.

Prediction: Nerchio 0 - 3 NaNiwa

Prediction like lichter promised: Nerchio 3 - 1 NaNiwa

Author's note: If you want to know more, go read Stuchiu’s piece “An Icon and a Pariah.” It’s a fantastic piece of writing and you really ought to go and take a look at it.

Bunny vs PtitDrogo

Back in July 2014, the Starcraft 2 world was already preparing for another year without a signficant foreign victory. TL Writers was already considering running another article series about foreign dreams dashed and foreign hopes lost. Then, out of nowhere, against a strong field containing MC, StarDust, jjakji, MMA, and HyuN, Bunny won Gfinity G3. The Liquid Terran had been on the ascendancy for a while, but his gold medal came out of nowhere and renewed the conversation for best foreigner of the year. He barely missed out on the semi finals of WCS EU S3 against San, but this season could be the one where Bunny reaches that hallowed plataeu.

Unlike many terrans of today, Bunny isn't afraid of matching wits with protoss in the late game. Instead of relying on a straightforward approach, Bunny shines when he's allowed to use multiple control groups for harassment and runbys. This was best displayed in his game on Catallena against San, where he pulled apart the yoe Flash Wolves protoss with his intelligent army movement. It was one of the best games played by a foreigner in 2014, and a performance like that could have beaten even the best protoss in the world. His 63% winrate in TvP is a testament to his strength in the matchup, but he is also dead even against Korean protoss. If anyone has earned a shot at becoming the Great Foreign Hope, it's Bunny and his Gfinity title. Sure, Sen won Taiwan Open one week later, but it was still a landmark victory for foreigners in 2014.

On the other end of the spectrum is PtitDrogo, the 19 year old French protoss. Coming from one of the healthier scenes in Europe (many of the young studs in Challenger League seem to hail from France), PtitDrogo surprised many less hardcore fans by beating FireCake, Nerchio, Serral and Snute to qualify on the second day of qualifiers. His battle tested PvZ carried him to qualification, but that unfortunately won't be applicable in his Challenger League match. With a 44.44% winrate in PvT and on a 1-9 slide, PtitDrogo still has a lot to prove in this match. We still don't know how exactly how he likes to play the matchup, but this is already a good start to 2015 for the Frenchman.

He's definitely the underdog against most of Europe's Challenger field, but at least, he's realistic:


And for that, I'm going to give him a chance.

Prediction: Bunny 3 - 1 PtitDrogo

Writers: lichter, peanuts, XXTN.
Editors: lichter.
Graphics: v1.