Parking the Bus
In a round that has seen the best teams falter, CJ now stands head and shoulders above the pack after 2 weeks. SKT T1 lost to Prime in week 1, KT split their matches against Samsung and Jin Air, and the latter team has now lost two straight. With 5 teams currently stuck at a record of 1-2, including KT and Jin Air, its not inconceivable to see one of those teams outside of the Top 4 when the round ends. While SKT T1 and KT are already safe from the drop, Jin Air have yet to cement their place in the season finale and will seek to improve to ensure they make it. CJ too have yet to book their ticket, but it looks like Coach Park and Co. can start putting their bags on the team bus bound for the season playoffs.
Round 4, Week 2 Recap
by lichterRound 4 Standings | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
1. | CJ Entus | 3-0 | 9-4 | +5 |
2. | SKT T1 | 2-1 | 7-6 | +1 |
3. | Prime | 2-1 | 8-6 | +2(-1)* |
4. | MVP | 1-2 | 6-6 | 0 | 5. | Samsung | 1-2 | 6-7 | -1 |
6. | KT | 1-2 | 5-7 | -2 |
7. | Jin Air | 1-2 | 6-8 | -2 |
8. | IM | 1-2 | 5-8 | -3(-1)* |
June 8
Jin Air Green Wings (1 - 3) KT Rolster
Cure < Overgrowth > Action
Rogue < Merry Go Round > Flash
sOs < Frost LE > Stats
Maru < King Sejong Station > TY
Ace: <
CJ Entus (3 - 1) Samsung Galaxy
GuMiho < Merry Go Round > Shine
Bbyong < Outboxer > RorO
herO < Habitation Station > Hurricane
Hush < Overgrowth > Reality
Ace: <
June 9
SK Telecom T1 (3 - 2) Incredible Miracle
Classic < King Sejong Station > Life
Soulkey < Frost > ByuL
soO < Outboxer > Oz
PartinG < Habitation Station > Ruin
Ace:Soulkey < Merry Go Round > Life
Prime (3 - 2) Team MVP
TerrOr < King Sejong Station > Super
MarineKing < Frost > hyvaa
Creator < Outboxer > DongRaeGu
KassiA < Habitation Station > Billowy
Ace:MarineKing < Merry Go Round > DongRaeGu
June 10
KT Rolster (1 - 3) Samsung Galaxy
TY < Habitation Station > Stork
Flash < Overgrowth > Shine
Zest < King Sejong Station > RorO
Stats < Frost > Hurricane
Ace:<
Jin Air Green Wings (2 - 3) CJ Entus
Maru < Merry Go Round > EffOrt
sOs < Outboxer > Bbyong
Cure < Habitation Station > herO
TRUE < Overgrowth > Hydra
Ace:Maru <King Sejong Station> herO
Things That Happened in Week 2
- Prime Win Again - For the first time all season, Prime have won consecutive matches. As the butt of all the jokes, this has been the Round of Redemption for SPL's smallest team. Sure, they only beat MVP this week, but scoring two straight wins should be a big boost in morale. While Creator has carried the team through most of the season, MKP has slowly begun to climb back into relevance, finally reaching a positive record. KassiA has also become a decent contributor to the team, and though their quest to reach the season playoffs looks hopeless, an appearance in the round playoffs should be considered a success. They split their games against their fellow bottom dwellers, but they did beat SKT T1, so any team expecting an easy win out of Prime this round should watch out.
Mathematically, Prime are still in the hunt for a season playoffs spot, assuming CJ lose all their remaining matches and end up last, and Prime finish first in both the regular season and playoffs. Their face off this week could finally put a nail in Prime's coffin or keep things interesting for their fans. - KT Continues to Confound - Loss, Win, Loss. Despite their place as the #1 seed heading into Round 4, KT still don't have that air of invulnerability that most #1 seeds tend to have. Their performances so far this round continued to perpetuate that perceived instability, as their 3-1 win over Jin Air was sandwiched by 1-3 defeats to CJ Entus and Samsung Galaxy. The latter two teams may be strong contenders for the playoff spots, but a team with Stats, Flash, TY and Zest should be expected to close out middle tier teams like Samsung.
They've so far limped their way through the final round of the regular season, and there should be cause for concern. None of their players have posted a positive record in Round 4, and it's not like they've been fielding bench players with regularity. Action seems the most likely to become KT Rolster's 5th man, but his improvements won't matter if their big 4 come into the playoffs slumping. - SKT T1's Loss to Prime was a Fluke - It was an embarassing start for SKT T1 as they lost to what was then the worst team in the league, but they hardly fielded their strongest available line up. That sounds absurd considering soO and FanTaSy were there to face Prime, but they played at the expense of Soulkey and PartinG. The team did bounce back this week with a close 3-2 win against IM, but this time it was Rain that wasn't fielded.
The team is so stacked with talent that they still have 2 Code S players (Dark and ParalyzE) riding the pine. With their spot in the season playoffs already a lock, expect iloveoov to continue experimenting with his roster. It's going to be a Best of 7 in both Proleague and Winners League formats, so developing players outside their top 4 is going to pay dividends come crunch time. With no known advantage for higher placing teams, all that matters for SKT T1 is to reach the playoffs with their unparalleled roster ready to play. They should scrape their way to the round playoffs even playing their benchwarmers, but don't be surprised if they lose another game or two as they look to get their guys some practice. - A Little Bit of Nostalgia - This one's for the GSTL fans out there, as MarineKing and DRG squared off in an Ace match for precious and hard-to-come-by points. Both players were well known as their teams' best players back in the GSTL, and though they haven't faced each other since OSL 2012, this game was sure to become a fan's delight.
The game lived up to expectations as the action started early. Scouting MKP's lack of a wall off in his main, DRG smelled blood and built a swell of lings. Fortunately for MarineKing, his 2 additional raxes after his reaper expand allowed him to have just enough marines to hold off the attack. The lings did invade his main, but a combination of excellent stutter step micro and positioning between buildings absolved the Prime ace from his lowered depot. With his army decimated and his late tech build revealed, MKP knew he had to play defensively. DRG would fall right into his hands with an ill-timed roach ling all in, which was easily deflected by a perfectly placed bunker between the natural CC and the ramp. Now with medivacs and stim, it was a simple counter push as MarineKing earned his team a valuable second win to keep their hopes of a playoff appearance alive. - CJ Entus Is Peaking at the Right Time - 3 matches, 3 wins. It's been a great final round for CJ Entus after the team was plagued with doubts after their Round 1 debacle, and it looks like Coach Park really does know what he's doing. With wins against KT, Jin Air, and Samsung, CJ still have SPL cellar-dwellers Prime, MVP and IM to face. They look good value to end the round on top, and they could carry that momentum to the round and season playoffs.
With herO quietly putting together the best record in the league, Bbyong shaping up to be a top 3 Terran equal to the likes of Flash and Maru, and EffOrt finally showing signs of life, CJ have ace-worthy players for each race. Though Hydra and the once-hyped Sora have struggled to make an impact with their combined record of 9-19, Hush and GuMiho are beginning to look like the backbone that CJ Entus need to make it deep. Unlike the other 3 teams primed to make the season playoffs, CJ have yet to place 1st in the round finale. With everything clicking for the team and the finish line on the horizon, this looks as good a time as any to take it. - Penalties Galore - After a Round 3 with no penalties, teams seems to have forgotten how much penalties affect their hopes of reaching the playoffs. Both IM and Prime received point deductions this week for typing gg in the wrong language, and though their chances of reaching the round playoffs are slim to none, these lapses in discipline certainly aren't doing themselves any favors.
Round 4, Week 3 Preview
June 15
CJ Entus vs Prime
Bbyong < Frost LE > MarineKing
Hush (Bong) < Habitation Station LE > Creator
GuMiho < Merry Go Round LE > KassiA
herO < Outboxer > SalvatioN
Ace:
Overgrowth LE
MVP vs KT
KeeN < Frost LE > TY
Super < Habitation Station LE > Action
aLive < Merry Go Round LE > Flash
DongRaeGu < Outboxer > Stats
Ace:
Overgrowth LE
June 16
Jin Air vs SKT T1
sOs < Frost LE > Rain
Maru < Habitation Station LE > Soulkey
TRUE < Merry Go Round LE > Dark
Rogue (Savage) < Outboxer > soO
Ace:
Overgrowth LE
IM vs Samsung
Ruin < Overgrowth LE > Shine
Life < Merry Go Round LE > Solar
ByuL < Frost LE > Stork
Hack < King Sejong Station LE > RorO
Ace:
Habitation Station LE
June 17
CJ vs MVP
Hydra < Habitation Station LE > KeeN
Bbyong < Outboxer > Super
herO < Overgrowth LE > DongRaeGu
EffOrt < Merry Go Round LE > Dream
Ace:
Frost LE
Prime vs KT
DeParture < Overgrowth LE > MyuNgSiK
MarineKing < Frost LE > Flash
Creator < King Sejong Station LE > Sleep
KassiA < Habitation Station LE > Zest
Ace:
Merry Go Round LE
Line-up Notes: Week 4
- We're going to see four vs s: Bbyong vs MKP, KeeN vs TY, aLive vs Flash, and MKP vs Flash. Wow.
- SKT T1 continue their rotation policy as PartinG, Classic, and FanTaSy make zero line up appearances this week
- Prime continue their quest for a playoff appearance, and they've decided to bench TerrOr this week. Unfortunately, DeParture and SalvatioN replace him, and they are 1-10 combined. Looks like MKP, Creator and KassiA are going to have to do this alone.
- The ST-IM partnership hasn't exactly panned out, and some will point to their lack of Terran representation as one of the causes. Their Protoss and Zerg only line ups have become predictable, but it looks like they're trying something new this round. For the first time since Mvp's ace match loss, IM are fielding a Terran in Hack, who makes his Proleague debut. While he has struggled to make Code A this year, Hack did make it to the GSL Global Tournament and finished in the middle of his group.
- Could CJ be the 2nd deepest team in the league? With GuMiho, Hush, EffOrt and Hydra backing up herO and Bbyong, they are legitimately 6 players deep. Only SKT T1 can rival that right now.
- Is Ruin the best protoss on IM? After looking the odd man out behind Trap, HerO, Squirtle and YongHwa, it looks like Coach Kang is starting to believe in him. His Code S appearances don't look like a fluke anymore and his 3-1 record in ProLeague looks promising.
- Soulkey will look to take revenge for his Ro8 thumping at the hands of Maru as they square off on Habitation Station. After a streak of domination between top players not seen since Mvp vs MKP, Soulkey finally succumbed to Maru's onslaught in Code S Ro8. Is this the start of a sea change in their rivalry?
- We're going to see MKP vs Flash on Frost, so expect both players to go blind 15cc. This could turn into a classic.
Match to Watch: CJ Entus vs Prime
Prime's Last Hope
For most of the season, things went as expected for Prime as they struggled to get any points on the board, much less any wins. Dead last and with a roster that had 1 player in the plus, only a perfect round could propel Prime into the season playoffs. Well, after 2 weeks, it actually still looks like a possibility. The only thing that hasn't gone according to plan is CJ Entus' more impressive round so far, and they are going to have to lose 4 straight in order for Prime to have a chance. That all begins with the first match of Week 3, as Prime look to knock CJ off their perch atop the round rankings.
Who would have thought this would become a Match to Watch after their teams' respective debacles in Round 1? They ended the first round with 3 wins between them and a map score of -21, but they enter Round 4 Week 3 as the two top teams of the round. Despite this similarity, their fates have diverged since Round 1. CJ Entus has turned things around and are now within a win of sealing their place in the season playoffs. Meanwhile, Prime have continued to struggle, with Round 4 their only ray of light. Both teams are peaking as the season reaches its climax, but while one team still has hopes of climbing the ladder, one team is playing for the pride of shaking that ladder down.
Call me crazy but, it actually looks possible. Prime have drawn a decent line up against CJ, especially with herO coming out 4th, but the Entus Ace basically has a free win against the hapless SalvatioN. That means MKP, Creator, and KassiA will have to pull out 3 straight wins, or they're going to have to cross their fingers against herO in the Ace match.
MKP opens the match against Bbyong, and as we've mentioned before, both have mediocre winrates in TvT. MKP's 41% might not look much worse than Bbyong's 51%, but the latter recently went through a 12-2 tear in 2014 before losing to Flash 1-4 at Shoutcraft Invitational. Whether that hot streak was a fluke or Bbyong's figured out his mirror, it's difficult to tell, but rest assured this isn't as one sided as it looks. In fact, Aligulac has it 53-46 in Bbyong's favor, and statistically that's almost a coin flip.
Next, Creator will have to dispose of Hush, who has displaced Sora as the team's second protoss. Hush is actually 6-3 this season, but Creator has shown that he's one of the most reliable players in the league despite his team's losses. He sits at 10th place in the standings with 15 wins and 14 losses, and is favored to take game 2.
The game that will most likely decide the fate of Prime is GuMiho vs KassiA on Merry Go Round. The addition of the towel terran should be considered one of the key free agent pick ups of the season, as he has rounded out the CJ line up quite well by adding an additional terran. At 4-2, GuMiho should like his chances on Merry Go Round, a map notorious for its airspace and base layout that makes it convenient to drop, assuming you get a favorable spawn orientation. KassiA will have to keep an eye out for Gumi's famed multi-directional harass style, though he has so far failed to win against terran (though both games were vs Maru). After suffering 7 straight defeats, KassiA has turned things around with back to back wins against soO and Billowy. Prime's hopes will rest on his shoulders as they look to avoid a Game 4 that will likely be a CJ win, and an ace match against the top ranking herO.
If CJ Entus win their duel, Prime will be mathematically eliminated from the season playoffs. If Prime win, however, their faint hopes will stay alive for at least until Tuesday. If CJ win, they'll be in pole position to finish the round on top heading into the playoffs and all but secure their spot in the finale, barring a monumental collapse or miracle run from Samsung, MVP or IM. This week could all but seal the four teams headed to the season playoffs, so make sure to tune in.
My prediction?
Bbyong < Frost LE > MarineKing
Hush (Bong) < Habitation Station LE > Creator
GuMiho < Merry Go Round LE > KassiA
herO < Outboxer > SalvatioN
Ace:
CJ win 3-1.
The dream is dead. Sorry Prime fans.