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WCS EU Ro32 - Group B Recap/Group C Preview

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WCS EU Ro32 - Group B Recap/Group C Preview

Text byTL.net ESPORTS
September 5th, 2013 03:15 GMT
2013 WCS Europe

WCS Europe Season 3



Ro32 Group B Recap
Happy and duckdeok Advance

Ro32 Group C Preview
Mvp, Vortix, Showtime, Noname

Brackets and standings on Liquipedia

VODs on Youtube

Ro32 Group B Recap

Happy and duckdeok Advance

by Plexa

While most groups in WCS EU have two clear favorites, Group B was a three horse race between Happy, TLO and the reigning champion duckdeok. Happy quietly dominated the group without dropping a map while duckdeok defeated TLO twice, with a collective score of 4-1, to come out in second place. TLO's early exit brings an end to his WCS Grand Finals hopes and brings the finals one step closer to being all Korean.

Ro32 - Group B
1.(T)Happy2-0 (4-0)
2.(P)duckdeok2-1 (4-3)
3.(Z)TLO1-2 (3-4)
4.(P)SaSe0-2 (0-4)

Detailed results from the live report thread by Lorning
+ Show Spoiler +

duckdeok vs TLO
(P)duckdeok <Bel'Shir Vestige> (Z)TLO
(P)duckdeok <Akilon Wastes> (Z)TLO
(P)duckdeok <Whirlwind> (Z)TLO

(P)duckdeok wins 2-1!

Happy vs SaSe
(T)Happy <Akilon Wastes> (P)SaSe
(T)Happy <Bel'Shir Vestige> (P)SaSe
(T)Happy <> (P)SaSe

(T)Happy wins 2-0!

Winners' Match
(P)duckdeok <Whirlwind> (T)Happy
(P)duckdeok <Akilon Wastes> (T)Happy
(P)duckdeok <> (T)Happy

(T)Happy wins 2-0!

Losers' Match
(Z)TLO <Bel'Shir Vestige> (P)SaSe
(Z)TLO <Whirlwind> (P)SaSe
(Z)TLO <> (P)SaSe

(Z)TLO wins 2-0!

Final Match
(P)duckdeok <Bel'Shir Vestige> (Z)TLO
(P)duckdeok <Akilon Wastes> (Z)TLO
(P)duckdeok <> (Z)TLO

(P)duckdeok wins 2-0!



(T)Happy and (P)duckdeok advance to WCS EU Premier RO16!


(P)duckdeok and (Z)TLO opened the night with a passive macro game - duckdeok taking a fast third and TLO taking a fast fourth in response. TLO was able to gain a clear advantage with his zergling/baneling composition after he shut down duckdeok's third. While duckdeok's follow up all in attempts looked scary at times, TLO had ultralisks pop just in time to take the first game. The second match saw duckdeok open with a gate first 4 gate aggression after expansion. TLO misread the situation and was quickly overwhelmed by zealots and took significant damage. A follow up immortal push sealed the game for duckdeok. The final game saw TLO taking a significant advantage by shutting down duckdeok's early third attempt. Unfortunately, duckdeok's counter aggression off of two base caught TLO by surprise and he was forced to concede.

The first game between (P)SaSe and (T)Happy was decided by a supply depot. Happy chose to build his first depot in a somewhat unconventional location which happened to be just in vision of Sase's proxy 2 gate. Once he knew what he was up against, Happy had little trouble fending off the cheese. In game 2 Sase managed to trick Happy into thinking that he was going to all in when in actuality he went for a very quick third base. Despite the setback, Happy made excellent use of multi-pronged attacks and fought his way into an advantageous position. A last ditch base race attempt by Sase was not enough to save the series for him.

In the winners match Happy's cheeky marine pressure was able to thwart duckdeok's fast third attempt. Noticing the lack of units, Happy continued to pressure with marines until he was able to get a substantial number of probe kills. The rest of the game seemed almost routine for Happy as he exploited duckdeok's lack of units through multi-pronged drop play. In somewhat typical duckdeok fashion, duckdeok opted for 2 base gateway all in in the second game. Vigilant scouting by Happy alerted him to this fact with enough time to erect extra bunkers to defend. After ramming his protoss ball into mines a bunkers a few times, duckdeok called a quits.

Sase continued his cheesy trends from his first series into the losers match, opening up against TLO with a cannon rush. The rush only barely failed to kill TLO's natural hatch. Sase tried to finish the job with some follow up DT tech but ultimately the hatch still stood. With many resources invested into failed hatch snipes, TLO was able to take firm control of the game and never looked back. In the second game Sase opted for some duckdeok-esque zealot pressure, but TLO was able to hold without taking significant losses. From there TLO was able to trap Sase on two base and crush Sase's eventual maxed push and take the match.

The final series of the night had duckdeok's immortal all in go up against TLO's mutalisk build. While the mutalisks were successful in being able to ward off the immortal all in, it came at the cost of TLO's third and a bunch of drones. Moreover it left him with a lack of units, so when duckdeok came knocking with a followup army of stalkers he had little to say in reply. The final match of the night was a repeat of game 2 from their first meeting. For the second time, TLO was unable to stop duckdeok's zealot aggression and was forced to tap out.

As mentioned in the introduction, TLO is now almost certainly out of the WCS Grand Finals at Blizzcon. With TLO out and Naniwa very unlikely to make it, only Grubby has a decent shot at providing some non-Korean representation at the finals. duckdeok currently resides at #14 on the rankings and his spot at Blizzcon is by no means secure. His victory today has inched him one step closer to that end goal. Happy is still quite far away from a ticket to Blizzcon as he is sitting on 1150 points at #33. However, with his play today it stands to reason that Happy could be a contender for one of the coveted top 5 spots this season and that might be just enough points to get him over the line.

Group B Preview: Mvp, Vortix, Showtime, Noname

by Zealously

Group C goes live in


Calling (T)Mvp inconsistent is always an uncomfortable thing to do. Ever since his first appearance in GSL Open Season 2, Mvp remained an important presence in the Starcraft II scene. Whether he wins by dominant and straight-up macro play or nigh-magical second level mind games, Mvp has very rarely been in a state where he is unable to eke out wins against most players. But at the same time, Mvp has, since his injuries first began to impair his ability to play the game, taken a fair amount of losses to players most would say he should beat. Whether it's the power of composure in tight spots, game sense or pure game genie magic, Mvp seems at his best against players he actually shouldn't be able to beat.

On that note, Group C may actually be one of the worse groups for Mvp. (P)ShowTime and (T)Noname are both largely nonames on the professional stage. Historically, the group stage of any tournament is the stage where Mvp is most likely to fall out. Another thing to note is that Mvp, once he wins something, takes some time off being #1. It happened after 2012 GSL Season 2 (he came back in season 4 to reach the finals where he lost 3-4 to Life), and it may very well be what we're looking at in Europe as well. After a great Season 1 with a top notch season finals performance, Season 2 for Mvp was lackluster in comparison. If Mvp follows his pattern of winning again once people start to forget about him being kind of really good, he should be able to do quite well for himself in this group. He is sitting quite comfortably at #8 (3500 points) in the WCS rankings, but falling out of the Round of 32 puts his spot at Blizzcon out of his hands, something no pro-gamer should be comfortable with. With Blizzcon being the largest and perhaps most significant Starcraft II tournament of all time, advancement from this group is crucial for Mvp.

While it seems like the King of Wings has all but secured a spot at Blizzcon with his top 4 finish at the Season 1 Finals and first place in WCS EU, the remaining three players in this group all require some degree of miracle work to make it that far. Out of the three, (Z)VortiX is in the best shape at #37 (1000 points), still far away from the all-important 16th spot. The Duran Zerg made it to the Round of 8 last season and narrowly fell out of the Round of 16 in Season 1, netting him enough points to ensure that a spot at Blizzcon is somewhat realistic, but remains very difficult to achieve. As for this group, it seems very doable for Vortix. Having played around 60 televised matches over the last month across WCS, various other tournaments and qualifiers, Vortix has amassed a pretty good record against players like Crank, MC, Mana, Babyknight and Kas – players you would favor over Showtime and Noname on most days of the week. To add to this fact, Vortix gets to play his two better match-ups, ZvT and ZvP, while avoiding ZvZ entirely in this group - a surprisingly lucky break for the guy most thought would have to play five Bo3s against his brother to decide who would advance out of this group-

Speaking of those two, let's talk about their chances in this group. At a glance, this group seems like easy money for the two more accomplished players Mvp and Vortix. But in mind that both Noname and Showtime legitimately made it out of Challenger League – something a lot of good players fail to do. Make no mistake, Mvp and Vortix are huge favorites in this group – they've both shown better play in the last few months than the two underdogs in the group and have both results and experience, but Showtime beating San in the Challenger groups shows that an upset here isn't completely inconceivable. Is it unlikely that Showtime will beat Mvp? Very much so, but so far the theme of Season 3 (across all three regions) seems to be something along the lines of "rise of the underdogs", with the unexpected players rising up to take spots in the Round of 16 at the expense of more accomplished players.

And let's not forget, strange things do happen when playing online. While Noname and Showtime can't realistically make it to Blizzard's Grand Slam at the end of the year, this group offers stiff competition and as such also a place for them to prove that they can be significant threats in the European scene. Just as Mvp has showed us, will and wit are potent tools for a progamer, but I feel like they still won't help the two underdogs to get out of this group.

Prediction
Vortix > Noname
Mvp > Showtime
Mvp > Vortix
Noname < Showtime
Vortix > Showtime

Upcoming Groups
Sept 10: (P)Grubby, (P)Genius, (Z)Starbuck, (T)LucifroN
Sept 11: (P)Welmu, (P)BlinG, (Z)sLivko, (T)ThorZaIN
Sept 12: (P)HasuObs, (P)Shuttle, (P)TitaN, (Z)Nerchio

More WCS Europe Season 3 Coverage

Oct 6 – WCS EU Season 3 RO8 Recap/Final Day Preview
Oct 5 – WCS EU Season 3 RO8 Preview
Sept 30 – WCS EU Season 3 RO16 D Recap/RO8 Bracket
Sept 27 – WCS EU Season 3 RO16 Group C Recap/Group D Preview
Sept 26 – WCS EU Season 3 RO16 Group B Recap/Group C Preview


Writers: Plexa, Zealously
Graphics: shiroiusagi
Banner photo: ESL
Editor: Plexa.
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TL+ Member
Shellshock
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States95884 Posts
September 05 2013 03:21 GMT
#2
Poor Sase. He just couldn't get anything to go his way. Shame about TLO as well. Quite a few likeable players in this group for me :/ Nice to see Happy get through for some more terran representation, though.

Really interested to see which Mvp turns up in this group. I'm pretty sure he'll get through the group, but it's a matter of whether he does it in dominating fashion or squeaks by in 2nd. Liking Vortix to advance with him. Still mad at Showtime for keeping San in Challenger
Moderatorhttp://i.imgur.com/U4xwqmD.png
TL+ Member
lichter
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
1001 YEARS KESPAJAIL22234 Posts
September 05 2013 03:25 GMT
#3
Mvppppppppppppppppp
AdministratorYOU MUST HEED MY INSTRUCTIONS TAKE OFF YOUR THIIIINGS
Laryleprakon
Profile Joined May 2011
New Zealand9464 Posts
September 05 2013 03:33 GMT
#4
Mvp easy 4-0!!!
banjoetheredskin
Profile Blog Joined November 2012
United States743 Posts
September 05 2013 03:42 GMT
#5
Mvp and Noname because why not!!!!!
Writer#1 CJ fan | http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/starcraft-2/508947-wcs-dreamhack-austin-interviews
TimBo_
Profile Joined September 2013
Germany7 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-09-05 03:48:36
September 05 2013 03:48 GMT
#6
pretty sad for sase and TLO , but still, i think this was a hard group. definitely interested in seeing how happy will do. for tommorrow go JÜRGEN!
there is no Quote
Conut
Profile Joined April 2012
Canada1003 Posts
September 05 2013 03:48 GMT
#7
mvp my heart cant take seeing you sad, i need THE smile.
Sc2 always got your back
Entirety
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
1423 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-09-05 04:26:13
September 05 2013 04:24 GMT
#8
Prediction from the Mvp Fan Club:

+ Show Spoiler +
On August 29 2013 07:20 Entirety wrote:

Opening Match
Mvp vs. ShoWTimE

Mvp's TvP: 68%
ShoWTimE's PvT: 58%
Head to Head Record: 0-0

         (1796) Mvp  0-0  ShoWTimE (1331)    
---------------------------------------------
48.10% 2-0 0-2 9.39%
29.48% 2-1 1-2 13.03%
---------------------------------------------
77.58% 22.42%

Median outcome: Mvp 2-1 ShoWTimE

Estimated by Aligulac. Modify.

Wow, even diehard Mvp fans have to feel slightly worried here. Mvp lost to both Grubby and HasuObs, looking very shaky against Protoss. On the other hand, ShoWTimE has a pretty decent PvT win-ratio, sporting a 7-1 record in his last 8 series (including a victory over LucifroN). Then, add in the Korea-Europe wall of lag, and you might wonder if an upset might occur here. Certainly, Mvp has to prepare well, for ShoWTimE is merely one of the many great Protoss players in WCS EU Season 3. This match will be a suitable litmus test - if Mvp loses to ShoWTimE, then his chances at the S3 championship start looking to be quite slim indeed.

Other Matches

Mvp's TvT: 59%
Noname's TvT: 65%
Head to Head Record: 0-0

       (1837) Mvp  0-0  Noname (1137)    
-----------------------------------------
59.78% 2-0 0-2 5.14%
27.12% 2-1 1-2 7.95%
-----------------------------------------
86.90% 13.10%

Median outcome: Mvp 2-0 Noname

Estimated by Aligulac. Modify.

Looking at Noname's TvT record, you would expect him to be a beast in that match-up. Upon closer inspection, he has not faced many notable players and none of his opponents were on the level of Mvp, leading Aligulac to heavily favor Mvp. There is a big unknown factor: Mvp has not played a TvT since his 2-3 loss to INnoVation! In other words, we have no idea of his current TvT skill, and Mvp may not have practiced that match-up. Despite this, Mvp's TvT has always remained respectable, even while his other match-ups may falter. Simply relying on his fundamental mechanics should be enough to pull him through this match without significant difficulties.

Mvp's TvZ: 66%
VortiX's ZvT: 59%
Head to Head Record: 3-1 (75%)

       (1869) Mvp  0-0  VortiX (1684)    
-----------------------------------------
33.82% 2-0 0-2 17.51%
28.30% 2-1 1-2 20.37%
-----------------------------------------
62.12% 37.88%

Median outcome: Mvp 2-1 VortiX

Estimated by Aligulac. Modify.

VortiX is not to be underestimated by any means. If Mvp is not careful, VortiX easily has the skill to knock him out of the group. The advantage that Mvp has is the match-up. Mvp's TvT is unknown, his TvP is shaky, but Mvp's TvZ has actually looked pretty good recently, especially against foreign Zergs. Most recently, Mvp mixed in Banshee harass, some Hellbat/Marauder timings, and Widow Mine pushes and crushed through DIMAGA without too much trouble. If a weakened Mvp shows up, then VortiX can run over Mvp... but if the Mvp we expect shows up, VortiX will simply be another foreign Zerg out of many who will fall to the Terran King.

Overall Outlook
                  Top 2      1st      2nd      3rd      4th    
---------------------------------------------------------------
Mvp 85.99% 51.42% 34.58% 10.14% 3.87%
VortiX 75.91% 36.69% 39.22% 17.27% 6.82%
ShoWTimE 28.09% 8.91% 19.19% 41.30% 30.61%
Noname 10.00% 2.99% 7.02% 31.29% 58.71%

Estimated by Aligulac. Modify.

This is Mvp's chance to become the first player to win two seasons in one year. The disadvantages: he has to prepare for every race, and the almighty wall of lag. The advantages: he managed to grab a relatively easy group, and he possesses the Mvp factor.

Even with his disappointing exit from Season 2, Mvp still managed to overcome the Ro32 and make it to the Ro16. In this group, Mvp is a solid favorite, but it's actually likely that Mvp won't emerge unscathed. Perhaps a surprise upset against ShoWTimE (showcasing his TvP woes) or a disappointing loss to VortiX may give Mvp fans miniature heart attacks, but Mvp should pull through in the end.

Predictions
Mvp 1-2 ShoWTimE (**the upset!**)
Noname 0-2 VortiX
ShoWTimE 1-2 VortiX
Mvp 2-0 Noname
ShoWTimE 0-2 Mvp

VortiX and Mvp advance!


Of course I'm cheering for Mvp all the way! We need a hero to show TaeJa, Bomber, and Maru who's the real Terran King around here.
IMMvp (정종현) | Fan Club: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=211431
Dragoonstorm7
Profile Joined December 2012
United States597 Posts
September 05 2013 05:53 GMT
#9
Thanks for another great write up as usual.
One note tho:
"With TLO out and Naniwa very unlikely to make it, only Grubby has a decent shot at providing some non-Korean representation at the finals."
Doesnt Scarlett still have a decent shot? Or has it been confirmed that she's not playing AM season 3?
As for group C, to me its the exact same as group A: one solid korea and one historically great european should move on. But as group A showed us, anything can happen in group stage.
oblivion awaits- dark archon (aka best unit ever)
holmesgenius
Profile Joined February 2013
Vietnam65 Posts
September 05 2013 06:27 GMT
#10
Happy did great game. Poor TLO.
i'm cheering for MVP. season 2, EU fighters could not do anything. even NA said: EU sucks. Damn. MVP plz, bring back our honor
Terran imbalance ---- Zerg wins ---- Protoss advances
FrostedMiniWheats
Profile Joined August 2010
United States30729 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-09-05 06:39:15
September 05 2013 06:39 GMT
#11
WCS EU Season 3: The Jürgen Rises

coming to a twitch stream near you 09/05/13
NesTea | Mvp | MC | Leenock | Losira | Gumiho | DRG | Taeja | Jinro | Stephano | Thorzain | Sen | Idra |Polt | Bomber | Symbol | Squirtle | Fantasy | Jaedong | Maru | sOs | Seed | ByuN | ByuL | Neeb| Scarlett | Rogue | IM forever
PHOTONS
Profile Joined August 2013
9 Posts
September 05 2013 06:48 GMT
#12
I don't know if this is the right thread

but my friend was telling me earlier tonight about the WCS, and that he watched it on twitch.tv

is there a giant VOD up of the broadcast where I can just put it up on my television and watch all the games?

I found a WCS website but it only links to youtube videos

I haven't watch SC2 since the beta tournament TL had
SeeDs.pt
Profile Joined August 2012
Portugal33 Posts
September 05 2013 07:06 GMT
#13
maybe http://wcs.battle.net/sc2/en/videos
mixed with
http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2013_StarCraft_II_World_Championship_Series

too bad a bracket/group layout isn't available when picking videos/series to see, with spoilers hidden.
tolerast
Profile Joined August 2013
Russian Federation36 Posts
September 05 2013 07:32 GMT
#14
good job by Happy, hope he can claim a spot to the season finals..

two of two koreans are through,
most likely three of three tonight... very bad
no river to take me home
ImperialFist
Profile Joined April 2013
790 Posts
September 05 2013 07:43 GMT
#15
Happy once again confirming his Godhood. Amazing RTS player, the full package and together with Lucifron the shining light of Foreign Terran.
"In the name of Holy Terra I challenge, Take up arms, for the Emperor’s Justice falls on you!"
Lorning *
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
Belgica34358 Posts
September 05 2013 07:44 GMT
#16
Mvp and Vortix should have this
Community News
TL+ Member
Leviance
Profile Joined November 2009
Germany4079 Posts
September 05 2013 07:51 GMT
#17
Go ShoWTimE!! It's showtime!!
"Blizzard is never gonna nerf Terran because of those American and European fuck" - Korean Netizen
igay
Profile Blog Joined November 2011
Australia1177 Posts
September 05 2013 08:11 GMT
#18
COME ON MVP IT'S THAT TIME AGAIN!
MVP <3 MKP <3 DRG <3
padiseal2
Profile Joined August 2012
Austria714 Posts
September 05 2013 13:06 GMT
#19
On September 05 2013 14:53 Dragoonstorm7 wrote:
Thanks for another great write up as usual.
One note tho:
"With TLO out and Naniwa very unlikely to make it, only Grubby has a decent shot at providing some non-Korean representation at the finals."
Doesnt Scarlett still have a decent shot? Or has it been confirmed that she's not playing AM season 3?
As for group C, to me its the exact same as group A: one solid korea and one historically great european should move on. But as group A showed us, anything can happen in group stage.


Very unlikely that Scarlett's going to play in WCS America this season. She tweeted that she won't be playing any tournament matches until October GSTL iirc.
Samsungjackets on twitch || 강민수 화이팅
heaveshade
Profile Joined March 2011
China316 Posts
September 05 2013 13:11 GMT
#20
damn man, i won't miss this one
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