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07:06 KST - method linked here has been disproved here10:54 KST - Find a full timeline of pro comments (including Spades) in the topic here.08:47 KST - Summary:Accusations of maphacking have the potential to destroy a player's career if left unaddressed. Because of the potential consequences, we should be careful about accepting unproven accusations. The principle of 'innocent until proven guilty' should be applied here. That does not mean that there has been a conclusion about this case, however, which is why this thread remains tentatively open. Please discuss with caution and use evidence to back up your claims. (also a summary post by an unnamed pro on reddit here) |
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On June 06 2012 08:20 Fyrewolf wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On June 06 2012 08:16 Bogeyman wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2012 05:10 StarStrider wrote:On June 06 2012 05:05 Bogeyman wrote:On June 06 2012 01:38 Ghanburighan wrote:On June 06 2012 01:17 Bogeyman wrote: Okay fine... instead of jumping the band-waggon "blindly" (I saw Catz and co stream their analysis) I'll look through the replays myself. I haven't even looked at the exact points brought up in the OP, and I'll just look through the replays myself and see if I find anything strange. I'll rate everything in terms of how suspicious I find it. Even though I'm not exactly qualified to make exact judgments on how suspicious something is, it is a clear way for me to explain myself.
Class 1 - Could be co-incidence or just smart/prepared play Class 2 - Rather odd Class 3 - Seems fishy Class 4 - Highly unlikely behavior Class 5 - Clear proof
Map: Shattered Temple 6:03 - Class 1 - Blindly builds a raven a few seconds after cloak and a banshee starts for Lucifron. In Spades' defense he was already going for double-gas and was looking to go for either banshees or a raven way before it was clear that Lucifron was gonna go banshees. 7:09 -> 7:20 - Class 2 - Spades is staring at his base for a long time. What is he doing? With the screen right there, why isn't he building SCVs? 7:20 - Class 1 - Ravens and marines move into a good position to intecept the incoming banshee. Spades has no vision of it nor does he have any conclusive evidence that Lucifron is going banshees. However, he does see a hellion at his front, and since it's close-by-air it's not a bad idea to prepare for banshees so it could just be smart play. 8:00 - Class 4 - Screen pans towards Lucifron's main but stops dead before it reaches the fog. His raven+viking is issued a command to move over the gap between the bases, and shortly thereafter Spades also clicks them into the main without looking there, so unless he hacks he would have to click the minimap. It seems highly unlikely to pan towards a location, stop right before the fog, click over the gap on screen then move your cursor to the minimap and click in the main from there. The more likely behavior is to keep panning into the main (if you're already panning, and it's a short distance) and click when you reach the end location. This type of behavior, if consistent during e.g. a showmatch but basically never happens in normal play on ladder and such, should be enough to be considered as some sort of proof. On it's own it's just really weird behavior. 11:59 - Class 0 - Here Spades genuinely looks through the fog, at Lucifron's main base. It is part of moving his medivac over here, so he's obviously right-clicking the ground (three times, nothing weird about that). So this makes me wonder about what I heard regarding over-riding the screen lock if you right-click. We really need some sort of confirmation on that until this point can be dismissed as counter-evidence. 11:57 - Class 0? - Upon further examination I noticed some clicking in the main of Lucifron. It's right-clicking with the medivac, but you can't see these initial clicks if you stick the the Spades cam. These clicks probably only mean he first right-clicked on the minimap, then left-clicked and continued to right-click on the ground. There's even a brief pause between these clicks before looking at the fog and then the subsequent clicks looking at the fog. So there's really no doubt this is what happened, and it's not anything weird. I still mention it because it may be important once we know exactly how the screen locking works. Spades did look straight into the fog before right-clicking there on the ground but after right-clicking there via the minimap. Can this be replicated with the screen locking hack? If not, well then that's in Spades' favor. If it can be replicated, well then it just means that it's not in favor of either side of the argument.
I'll analyze the rest of the replays later. I've already missed quite a bit of E3. I look forward to more of your analysis. Edit: Papaz and others interested in the OP's identity will find a more suitable thread here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=14942771 It's nice to see someone appreciates it. ^^ So, moving on to the next replay. I'm probably doing them backwards but whatever... Again, these are my rates of suspicion: Class 1 - Could be co-incidence or just smart/prepared play Class 2 - Rather odd Class 3 - Seems fishy Class 4 - Highly unlikely behavior Class 5 - Clear proof Map: MLG Daybreak 2:52 - Class 2 - His SCV arrives and sits idle in Lucifrons main, and Spades jumps to it, clicks three times in the general direction of the ramp, then comes back to his own main and sends the SCV back home. He does not scout the left gas, get a good view of the saturation or attempt to look for anything that may be hidden in the fog inside Lucifron's main. He could just suspect a one-rax fast expand given the map and what he has seen Lucifron do in other matches, but it's still odd that he doesn't even try to scout both geysers. On his way out he does not catch of glimpse of the SCV that is ready to build a CC at the nat (in fact Lucifron purposely hides it). If perhaps Spades has brilliant minimap awareness he might have noticed that the SCV that built the barracks went down the ramp just as Spades' SCV enters. He was busy in his own main at the time, and it was only visible for a split second. 2:57 - Class 2 - Without any clear scouting information Spades sends an SCV to build the CC on the low-ground in his nat. Lucifron also does this, but he did check both geysers beforehand. It's just a bit odd though, that Spades wouldn't even try to check both geysers with that in mind. 4:06 - Class 2 - I was considering this might be a class 3, but... he could just be taking a huge risk, hoping Lucifron does what he has done before. It's still a stupid risk. Either way, at 4:06 Spades selects an SCV and sends it to his 3rd with the obvious intent of building another CC. At this time Lucifron still has no gas and only one barracks, but of course Spades has no vision of this, nor does he control any of the watchtowers. Once the SCV reaches the 3rd Lucifron has just recently started building his 3rd CC, smartly inside his main. Spades subsequently builds his CC at the 3rd. A couple seconds afterwards Spades takes the watchtower on his side with 2 marines. 12:39 - Class 1 - A marine in a scouting position is attacked and killed by Lucifrons main army moving towards Spades' constructing 4th. Spades doesn't try to look at the army to see the army composition, which is a bit weird, but it is also understandable and plausible that he wanted to focus on his commencing drop in Lucifron's 3rd, and he may well have simply assumed Lucifron's army composition would be as expected. Also, Spades had seen the double e-bay, 3rax with a techlab and two reactors, and a factory building a reactor for the a starport, so he was right to assume what unit composition would be there, except of course if there are any vikings mixed in with the medivacs or not. 14:30 - Class 2 - I remember Catz and the boys mentioning this. As far as Spades knows (shown by a scan a little while ago) Lucifron is sieged up right in front of his army, and just out of siege range. Lucifron's medivacs come into his vision, and Spades sends his entire marine force forward, straight into potential siege attacks. Why would he do that? Luckily (unless hacking) for Spades, Lucifron just unsieged his tanks and moved back with everything except his medivacs. Still, people make mistakes like this in positional TvT games, just not quite so obvious mistakes. 14:38 - Class 0 - If you want to argue Spades made mistakes he wouldn't have if he was hacking, this might be one of them. Spades moves a medivac into position for yet another drop at the 3rd of Lucifron, but now there's a turret there waiting for him and it kills the medivac with all but one marine in it. It really doesn't prove anything one way or another though, as even with maphack it's by no means certain that Spades would look there and/or notice the turret. Also, after some more looking around it seems the turret wasn't actually there when Spades sent the medivac in the first place. Hey, maybe Lucifron is the one hacking, building turrets when he sees medivacs coming? No... let's get back to being serious... 16:00 - Class 3 - Shortly up to this point there has been a lot of weird shadow-boxing going on. Granted Spades could just be moving his army around based on guess-work (an army killed a marine, then he had no idea where it kept moving, sent one marine to spot if the army went via the potential 5th base, and a scan from Lucifron. All the army movement of Spades' main army was based on that limited intel, and it mirrors Lucifron's hidden army movement rather well.) But it's possibly legit, and such things can happen. What stands out more to me the weird movement right at 16:00. He's about to go kill the rocks, but suddenly turns around and goes straight up the ramp where there may be an army of tanks sieged up for all Spades can see. He leads with his tanks and moves in a big clumped ball. The prize that's awaiting is unguarded medivacs once again, this time they were not even close to being in his vision and yet he sends his army straight to their location. Why doesn't he stim right away and pick them off? Well that would be too obvious. That would be a class 4 or even a 5, definitely a 5 if he stimmed a big group of marines. A single stimmed marine would be less suspicious to me than the clumped ball. Anyway, to make matters even more weird: as his army moves in a ball up the ramp, before he spots the unguarded medivacs, he goes back into his main and just leaves his army to it's fate. What does he do in the main? He seems to be selected the factories and starport, then switches to the barracks, and back and forth for a little bit. He's maxed so he doesn't actually need to do anything there except maybe add more barracks, which he doesn't. 17:31 - Class 2 - He sends his army towards the 3rd of Lucifron without scanning. He doesn't scan a single time to get positional information. He doesn't even look at his army as it approaches the 3rd. When it gets there he looks over and starts sieging, stimming etc. Why no scans? He has a total of 7 scans saved up before the attack, but instead of scanning he lands 3 mules at his 4th as his tanks are moving into who knows what. In his defense, and why I don't see this as a class 3 (though perhaps I should) is that in the last couple of minutes Lucifron has lost quite a bit of tanks, so perhaps Spades just isn't afraid. Still, he's leading with 8 tanks, 2 marines and 4 medivacs. If he's caught out of position he could lose a lot, but it could be prevented by a scan. It's really weird, but not conclusive evidence. I just gotta say my respect for Lucifron grew like hell watching that game. Even at the end when he ggs he's actually got a big lead in army size. His macro is amazing, it looked like Spades was just copying what Lucifron was doing, only taking slightly bigger risks (like not scout correctly and still build everything on the low-ground, scanning very rarely etc). I'll review another game soon I guess. I really like the way you've broken this down fair and objectively. I was going to do this but you beat me to it. :D Please continue. Also please analyze the Theognis vs Spades pack that Illusion posted, with the same format? Thanks! I'll see if I can get to the Theognis games before I tire or it feels like the discussion is over anyways. I guess with Spades leaving WW and possibly sc2 (?) we may not need to talk much more about it. But just for the sake of making sure I'll keep analyzing some more replays. Also, thanks to BoZiffer for the nice comment as well. Rates of suspicion: Class 1 - Could be co-incidence or just smart/prepared play Class 2 - Rather odd Class 3 - Seems fishy Class 4 - Highly unlikely behavior Class 5 - Clear proof Map: MLG Tal'Darim Altar 4:03 - Class 0 - He sends his marines to the watchtower. He clicks once to get the marines to move a bit, then switches over to the watchtower and clicks once there. So I don't know exactly how the screen locking hack works but this time at least he didn't click into the fog of war before looking at it, unlike the game on Shattered Temple where he right-clicked on the minimap first. Unless you can replicate that with a hack active (move screen to a location with fog of war, then right-click) and it still showing in the replay as if you move there before right-clicking your units there, this so far looks like he didn't hack in this game. Of course, you may still argue that he's stream-cheating or maybe using a different version of the hack this game. x:xx - Class 1 - So Spades is making a crapton of hellions in this game, from double-factory with tech-lab/reactor for blue-flame, and he really doesn't have any way to know if his opponent went 3-rax into gas or quick double gas and maybe banshees. But I will give him the benefit of a doubt, because at least he did see no gas at the start, so that's probably a 1-rax fast expand, and Spades is free to cross his fingers and hope there won't be any banshees incoming. Either way, at 7:20 he moves out with his hellions and checks the front and finds a bunker with two marines in it and 5 additional marines outside (though in fact there are 8 outside of the bunker, but Spades doesn't see it). That's a few marines, but not too many to say there can't be a banshee coming. Still Spades waits to build a starport for almost another minute, instead getting an armory first. Seems very risky, but it could just be that Spades was convinced of how Lucifron would play the map. 17:03 - Class 0 - Not much weird happens up until now (like 5 minor things occur, like movements with the hellions and such, but they really don't prove anything), and what happens now was pointed out as something hackish, but I just don't see it. What happens is Lucifron loads up a big drop to attack Spades' nat. What seemed suspicious was how Spades grouped his vikings and put them in a good position. The thing is the rally for the starport was right there anyway, and Spades only really selected all the vikings, added them to a control group (over-riding the hellions' group), and moved them an inch north. And before that he sieged his tanks. But this can't even have been a reaction to the drop, as the medivacs weren't loaded when the tanks sieged and the vikings were grouped basically at exactly the same time as the medivacs were loading. Sure, the positioning of Lucifron's units (if Spades' was hacking) was indicating he was going to drop, but it wasn't that certain. Regardless, Spades positioned himself well for an attack at the nat, whether by ground or air. The back/north of the main was protected by turrets, the hellions recently saw the position of the army, so even if an attack might come from way the fuck around the right side, it wasn't gonna come just yet. Well I guess there's always the possibility for a drop, but Spades had a pretty good setup at the time. 18:22 - Class 1 - This might seem suspicious, so I'll mention it even if I don't think it means much. Spades unsieges and moves closer to the ramp, and also a bit closer to his 3rd. He stays unsieged, which of course would be bad if a full-on frontal assault comes marching in. However, he just defeated a decent portion of Lucifron's army, and he hasn't seen where the rest if his army is, and he has basically no map vision. So unsieging his tanks gives him a chance to react to an attack at both his nat or his 3rd. Now maybe it would be even better if he set up a siege-line to cover both his nat and his 3rd, but I'm not sure if he has enough tanks (5) to do that without just spreading himself too thin and die from a flank with any decent amount of marauders in it. Either way this doesn't prove much of anything, and perhaps I shouldn't have mentioned it at all. 19:13 - Class 1 - Another thing I think was mentioned by someone on the call with Catz. As Lucifron's army approaches, without Spades seeing any of it, Spades sets up a great siege-line from his nat to his 3rd. It's not such a weird thing to do though, since now he has a much better tank count, and he can try to defend both locations. 32:14 - Class 0 - Here's a great scan from Spades, catching the army trying to approach the 3rd. I'm not sure, but I think catz and the boys mentioned this scan? I know it's not the magic scan they refer to, and it looks nothing like those scans regardless of them being magic or not. Anyway, this one can't be seen as a hack scan (scanning so you can act on what you already know) as he scans two other key locations that are empty before he finally finds the army. So far the game looks mostly legit. 32:44 - Class 4 - I might consider this a Class 4 (well actually, I do... I changed my mind after finishing this segment) if it wasn't for the fact that it's been a long game, Spades is probably stressed out, and Lucifron has been drilling the back of his main all game long, so now that he has fended off an attack at the 3rd (though the threat remains), I'm not entirely convinced he can't just snap and think "oh holy crap I don't have a spotter for the back of my main!" and totally over-react. However, it's also entirely possible that he's been so busy dealing with the attack at the 3rd and is exhausted from all the other attacks all over the place that he wasn't watching the minimap, seeing the army unloading in his main (with a maphack), and when he finally looked down and saw a blob of blue there he panicked and grabbed way too many units, even though he should've known the threat on the right side was just as bad, with or without a hack. At 32:39 it is very apparent that he wants to send his units straight towards that area (well, right next to it) in the main where Lucifron is unloading. You can see the air units are selected and there's a right-click a bit to the right of where the army is. Now, even if I think that perhaps Spades could think "oh crap, is my back protected?", he reacts too fast (after Lucifron let the pressure off on the 3rd) and too drastically for it to be anything other than a hack. I mean, that's what I think, but it's still not hard evidence. Also, if his thought-process is "I have to make sure my main isn't dropped" he would either instantly drop a scan (he does that much later, when his army is more or less in place to defend already) or he would at least let the vikings keep flying to scout the area. Instead he hesitates and stops his air units and moves them a bit to the right instead. Why the heck would he do that if he wants to stop a potential drop? The only thing I can think of is that if he is using a hack, he would think "I can't let him know that I'm getting in position. I need him to stay put while I get there". Maybe, just maybe he thinks he needs his vikings with his clump of tanks at his natural in case of an attack there. But why is this not true a couple seconds later when he moves lots of tanks and all the air units to his main and THEN scans Lucifron's army? He had a ton of energy for scans saved up! So that's enough for today... I could look at the Theognis games tomorrow if anyone still cares. As for the verdict so far: it's surely leaning towards guilty. But we really do need to clear up exactly how the screen lock works, and replicate the results we see in the game to see if it's possible. Because I have found a few situations where he does look into the fog of war right before he right-clicks on the ground. Wouldn't the hack let me see the place right as the click is done, not before? Of course, it may just manipulate the replay file. But then if you're watching a hacker live from his point of view, can the hack prevent an observer/referee to notice he's looking into the fog? These are things we need to clear up before we can say for sure that Spades is a hacker. @Bogeyman: Thank you for taking the time to write these. Could you clarify your definition of Class 0 please? If it was in an earlier analysis I must have missed it.
Fyrewolf ... i think you should really not comment or open your mouth in any of those thread.... We all know you are very familiar with MH
User was warned for this post
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Try taking a look at the Daybreak games against zerg in the replay pack Spades provided.
Also take a look at this game (also on Daybreak) against dKiller(z) in Zotac Cup played a couple of days ago:
http://www.sc2-replays.net/en/replays/9175-spades-vs-dkiller,daybreak
Focus on his decision making and the information it is based upon. It is quite odd.
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On June 06 2012 08:31 lulutheking wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2012 08:20 Fyrewolf wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On June 06 2012 08:16 Bogeyman wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2012 05:10 StarStrider wrote:On June 06 2012 05:05 Bogeyman wrote:On June 06 2012 01:38 Ghanburighan wrote:On June 06 2012 01:17 Bogeyman wrote: Okay fine... instead of jumping the band-waggon "blindly" (I saw Catz and co stream their analysis) I'll look through the replays myself. I haven't even looked at the exact points brought up in the OP, and I'll just look through the replays myself and see if I find anything strange. I'll rate everything in terms of how suspicious I find it. Even though I'm not exactly qualified to make exact judgments on how suspicious something is, it is a clear way for me to explain myself.
Class 1 - Could be co-incidence or just smart/prepared play Class 2 - Rather odd Class 3 - Seems fishy Class 4 - Highly unlikely behavior Class 5 - Clear proof
Map: Shattered Temple 6:03 - Class 1 - Blindly builds a raven a few seconds after cloak and a banshee starts for Lucifron. In Spades' defense he was already going for double-gas and was looking to go for either banshees or a raven way before it was clear that Lucifron was gonna go banshees. 7:09 -> 7:20 - Class 2 - Spades is staring at his base for a long time. What is he doing? With the screen right there, why isn't he building SCVs? 7:20 - Class 1 - Ravens and marines move into a good position to intecept the incoming banshee. Spades has no vision of it nor does he have any conclusive evidence that Lucifron is going banshees. However, he does see a hellion at his front, and since it's close-by-air it's not a bad idea to prepare for banshees so it could just be smart play. 8:00 - Class 4 - Screen pans towards Lucifron's main but stops dead before it reaches the fog. His raven+viking is issued a command to move over the gap between the bases, and shortly thereafter Spades also clicks them into the main without looking there, so unless he hacks he would have to click the minimap. It seems highly unlikely to pan towards a location, stop right before the fog, click over the gap on screen then move your cursor to the minimap and click in the main from there. The more likely behavior is to keep panning into the main (if you're already panning, and it's a short distance) and click when you reach the end location. This type of behavior, if consistent during e.g. a showmatch but basically never happens in normal play on ladder and such, should be enough to be considered as some sort of proof. On it's own it's just really weird behavior. 11:59 - Class 0 - Here Spades genuinely looks through the fog, at Lucifron's main base. It is part of moving his medivac over here, so he's obviously right-clicking the ground (three times, nothing weird about that). So this makes me wonder about what I heard regarding over-riding the screen lock if you right-click. We really need some sort of confirmation on that until this point can be dismissed as counter-evidence. 11:57 - Class 0? - Upon further examination I noticed some clicking in the main of Lucifron. It's right-clicking with the medivac, but you can't see these initial clicks if you stick the the Spades cam. These clicks probably only mean he first right-clicked on the minimap, then left-clicked and continued to right-click on the ground. There's even a brief pause between these clicks before looking at the fog and then the subsequent clicks looking at the fog. So there's really no doubt this is what happened, and it's not anything weird. I still mention it because it may be important once we know exactly how the screen locking works. Spades did look straight into the fog before right-clicking there on the ground but after right-clicking there via the minimap. Can this be replicated with the screen locking hack? If not, well then that's in Spades' favor. If it can be replicated, well then it just means that it's not in favor of either side of the argument.
I'll analyze the rest of the replays later. I've already missed quite a bit of E3. I look forward to more of your analysis. Edit: Papaz and others interested in the OP's identity will find a more suitable thread here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=14942771 It's nice to see someone appreciates it. ^^ So, moving on to the next replay. I'm probably doing them backwards but whatever... Again, these are my rates of suspicion: Class 1 - Could be co-incidence or just smart/prepared play Class 2 - Rather odd Class 3 - Seems fishy Class 4 - Highly unlikely behavior Class 5 - Clear proof Map: MLG Daybreak 2:52 - Class 2 - His SCV arrives and sits idle in Lucifrons main, and Spades jumps to it, clicks three times in the general direction of the ramp, then comes back to his own main and sends the SCV back home. He does not scout the left gas, get a good view of the saturation or attempt to look for anything that may be hidden in the fog inside Lucifron's main. He could just suspect a one-rax fast expand given the map and what he has seen Lucifron do in other matches, but it's still odd that he doesn't even try to scout both geysers. On his way out he does not catch of glimpse of the SCV that is ready to build a CC at the nat (in fact Lucifron purposely hides it). If perhaps Spades has brilliant minimap awareness he might have noticed that the SCV that built the barracks went down the ramp just as Spades' SCV enters. He was busy in his own main at the time, and it was only visible for a split second. 2:57 - Class 2 - Without any clear scouting information Spades sends an SCV to build the CC on the low-ground in his nat. Lucifron also does this, but he did check both geysers beforehand. It's just a bit odd though, that Spades wouldn't even try to check both geysers with that in mind. 4:06 - Class 2 - I was considering this might be a class 3, but... he could just be taking a huge risk, hoping Lucifron does what he has done before. It's still a stupid risk. Either way, at 4:06 Spades selects an SCV and sends it to his 3rd with the obvious intent of building another CC. At this time Lucifron still has no gas and only one barracks, but of course Spades has no vision of this, nor does he control any of the watchtowers. Once the SCV reaches the 3rd Lucifron has just recently started building his 3rd CC, smartly inside his main. Spades subsequently builds his CC at the 3rd. A couple seconds afterwards Spades takes the watchtower on his side with 2 marines. 12:39 - Class 1 - A marine in a scouting position is attacked and killed by Lucifrons main army moving towards Spades' constructing 4th. Spades doesn't try to look at the army to see the army composition, which is a bit weird, but it is also understandable and plausible that he wanted to focus on his commencing drop in Lucifron's 3rd, and he may well have simply assumed Lucifron's army composition would be as expected. Also, Spades had seen the double e-bay, 3rax with a techlab and two reactors, and a factory building a reactor for the a starport, so he was right to assume what unit composition would be there, except of course if there are any vikings mixed in with the medivacs or not. 14:30 - Class 2 - I remember Catz and the boys mentioning this. As far as Spades knows (shown by a scan a little while ago) Lucifron is sieged up right in front of his army, and just out of siege range. Lucifron's medivacs come into his vision, and Spades sends his entire marine force forward, straight into potential siege attacks. Why would he do that? Luckily (unless hacking) for Spades, Lucifron just unsieged his tanks and moved back with everything except his medivacs. Still, people make mistakes like this in positional TvT games, just not quite so obvious mistakes. 14:38 - Class 0 - If you want to argue Spades made mistakes he wouldn't have if he was hacking, this might be one of them. Spades moves a medivac into position for yet another drop at the 3rd of Lucifron, but now there's a turret there waiting for him and it kills the medivac with all but one marine in it. It really doesn't prove anything one way or another though, as even with maphack it's by no means certain that Spades would look there and/or notice the turret. Also, after some more looking around it seems the turret wasn't actually there when Spades sent the medivac in the first place. Hey, maybe Lucifron is the one hacking, building turrets when he sees medivacs coming? No... let's get back to being serious... 16:00 - Class 3 - Shortly up to this point there has been a lot of weird shadow-boxing going on. Granted Spades could just be moving his army around based on guess-work (an army killed a marine, then he had no idea where it kept moving, sent one marine to spot if the army went via the potential 5th base, and a scan from Lucifron. All the army movement of Spades' main army was based on that limited intel, and it mirrors Lucifron's hidden army movement rather well.) But it's possibly legit, and such things can happen. What stands out more to me the weird movement right at 16:00. He's about to go kill the rocks, but suddenly turns around and goes straight up the ramp where there may be an army of tanks sieged up for all Spades can see. He leads with his tanks and moves in a big clumped ball. The prize that's awaiting is unguarded medivacs once again, this time they were not even close to being in his vision and yet he sends his army straight to their location. Why doesn't he stim right away and pick them off? Well that would be too obvious. That would be a class 4 or even a 5, definitely a 5 if he stimmed a big group of marines. A single stimmed marine would be less suspicious to me than the clumped ball. Anyway, to make matters even more weird: as his army moves in a ball up the ramp, before he spots the unguarded medivacs, he goes back into his main and just leaves his army to it's fate. What does he do in the main? He seems to be selected the factories and starport, then switches to the barracks, and back and forth for a little bit. He's maxed so he doesn't actually need to do anything there except maybe add more barracks, which he doesn't. 17:31 - Class 2 - He sends his army towards the 3rd of Lucifron without scanning. He doesn't scan a single time to get positional information. He doesn't even look at his army as it approaches the 3rd. When it gets there he looks over and starts sieging, stimming etc. Why no scans? He has a total of 7 scans saved up before the attack, but instead of scanning he lands 3 mules at his 4th as his tanks are moving into who knows what. In his defense, and why I don't see this as a class 3 (though perhaps I should) is that in the last couple of minutes Lucifron has lost quite a bit of tanks, so perhaps Spades just isn't afraid. Still, he's leading with 8 tanks, 2 marines and 4 medivacs. If he's caught out of position he could lose a lot, but it could be prevented by a scan. It's really weird, but not conclusive evidence. I just gotta say my respect for Lucifron grew like hell watching that game. Even at the end when he ggs he's actually got a big lead in army size. His macro is amazing, it looked like Spades was just copying what Lucifron was doing, only taking slightly bigger risks (like not scout correctly and still build everything on the low-ground, scanning very rarely etc). I'll review another game soon I guess. I really like the way you've broken this down fair and objectively. I was going to do this but you beat me to it. :D Please continue. Also please analyze the Theognis vs Spades pack that Illusion posted, with the same format? Thanks! I'll see if I can get to the Theognis games before I tire or it feels like the discussion is over anyways. I guess with Spades leaving WW and possibly sc2 (?) we may not need to talk much more about it. But just for the sake of making sure I'll keep analyzing some more replays. Also, thanks to BoZiffer for the nice comment as well. Rates of suspicion: Class 1 - Could be co-incidence or just smart/prepared play Class 2 - Rather odd Class 3 - Seems fishy Class 4 - Highly unlikely behavior Class 5 - Clear proof Map: MLG Tal'Darim Altar 4:03 - Class 0 - He sends his marines to the watchtower. He clicks once to get the marines to move a bit, then switches over to the watchtower and clicks once there. So I don't know exactly how the screen locking hack works but this time at least he didn't click into the fog of war before looking at it, unlike the game on Shattered Temple where he right-clicked on the minimap first. Unless you can replicate that with a hack active (move screen to a location with fog of war, then right-click) and it still showing in the replay as if you move there before right-clicking your units there, this so far looks like he didn't hack in this game. Of course, you may still argue that he's stream-cheating or maybe using a different version of the hack this game. x:xx - Class 1 - So Spades is making a crapton of hellions in this game, from double-factory with tech-lab/reactor for blue-flame, and he really doesn't have any way to know if his opponent went 3-rax into gas or quick double gas and maybe banshees. But I will give him the benefit of a doubt, because at least he did see no gas at the start, so that's probably a 1-rax fast expand, and Spades is free to cross his fingers and hope there won't be any banshees incoming. Either way, at 7:20 he moves out with his hellions and checks the front and finds a bunker with two marines in it and 5 additional marines outside (though in fact there are 8 outside of the bunker, but Spades doesn't see it). That's a few marines, but not too many to say there can't be a banshee coming. Still Spades waits to build a starport for almost another minute, instead getting an armory first. Seems very risky, but it could just be that Spades was convinced of how Lucifron would play the map. 17:03 - Class 0 - Not much weird happens up until now (like 5 minor things occur, like movements with the hellions and such, but they really don't prove anything), and what happens now was pointed out as something hackish, but I just don't see it. What happens is Lucifron loads up a big drop to attack Spades' nat. What seemed suspicious was how Spades grouped his vikings and put them in a good position. The thing is the rally for the starport was right there anyway, and Spades only really selected all the vikings, added them to a control group (over-riding the hellions' group), and moved them an inch north. And before that he sieged his tanks. But this can't even have been a reaction to the drop, as the medivacs weren't loaded when the tanks sieged and the vikings were grouped basically at exactly the same time as the medivacs were loading. Sure, the positioning of Lucifron's units (if Spades' was hacking) was indicating he was going to drop, but it wasn't that certain. Regardless, Spades positioned himself well for an attack at the nat, whether by ground or air. The back/north of the main was protected by turrets, the hellions recently saw the position of the army, so even if an attack might come from way the fuck around the right side, it wasn't gonna come just yet. Well I guess there's always the possibility for a drop, but Spades had a pretty good setup at the time. 18:22 - Class 1 - This might seem suspicious, so I'll mention it even if I don't think it means much. Spades unsieges and moves closer to the ramp, and also a bit closer to his 3rd. He stays unsieged, which of course would be bad if a full-on frontal assault comes marching in. However, he just defeated a decent portion of Lucifron's army, and he hasn't seen where the rest if his army is, and he has basically no map vision. So unsieging his tanks gives him a chance to react to an attack at both his nat or his 3rd. Now maybe it would be even better if he set up a siege-line to cover both his nat and his 3rd, but I'm not sure if he has enough tanks (5) to do that without just spreading himself too thin and die from a flank with any decent amount of marauders in it. Either way this doesn't prove much of anything, and perhaps I shouldn't have mentioned it at all. 19:13 - Class 1 - Another thing I think was mentioned by someone on the call with Catz. As Lucifron's army approaches, without Spades seeing any of it, Spades sets up a great siege-line from his nat to his 3rd. It's not such a weird thing to do though, since now he has a much better tank count, and he can try to defend both locations. 32:14 - Class 0 - Here's a great scan from Spades, catching the army trying to approach the 3rd. I'm not sure, but I think catz and the boys mentioned this scan? I know it's not the magic scan they refer to, and it looks nothing like those scans regardless of them being magic or not. Anyway, this one can't be seen as a hack scan (scanning so you can act on what you already know) as he scans two other key locations that are empty before he finally finds the army. So far the game looks mostly legit. 32:44 - Class 4 - I might consider this a Class 4 (well actually, I do... I changed my mind after finishing this segment) if it wasn't for the fact that it's been a long game, Spades is probably stressed out, and Lucifron has been drilling the back of his main all game long, so now that he has fended off an attack at the 3rd (though the threat remains), I'm not entirely convinced he can't just snap and think "oh holy crap I don't have a spotter for the back of my main!" and totally over-react. However, it's also entirely possible that he's been so busy dealing with the attack at the 3rd and is exhausted from all the other attacks all over the place that he wasn't watching the minimap, seeing the army unloading in his main (with a maphack), and when he finally looked down and saw a blob of blue there he panicked and grabbed way too many units, even though he should've known the threat on the right side was just as bad, with or without a hack. At 32:39 it is very apparent that he wants to send his units straight towards that area (well, right next to it) in the main where Lucifron is unloading. You can see the air units are selected and there's a right-click a bit to the right of where the army is. Now, even if I think that perhaps Spades could think "oh crap, is my back protected?", he reacts too fast (after Lucifron let the pressure off on the 3rd) and too drastically for it to be anything other than a hack. I mean, that's what I think, but it's still not hard evidence. Also, if his thought-process is "I have to make sure my main isn't dropped" he would either instantly drop a scan (he does that much later, when his army is more or less in place to defend already) or he would at least let the vikings keep flying to scout the area. Instead he hesitates and stops his air units and moves them a bit to the right instead. Why the heck would he do that if he wants to stop a potential drop? The only thing I can think of is that if he is using a hack, he would think "I can't let him know that I'm getting in position. I need him to stay put while I get there". Maybe, just maybe he thinks he needs his vikings with his clump of tanks at his natural in case of an attack there. But why is this not true a couple seconds later when he moves lots of tanks and all the air units to his main and THEN scans Lucifron's army? He had a ton of energy for scans saved up! So that's enough for today... I could look at the Theognis games tomorrow if anyone still cares. As for the verdict so far: it's surely leaning towards guilty. But we really do need to clear up exactly how the screen lock works, and replicate the results we see in the game to see if it's possible. Because I have found a few situations where he does look into the fog of war right before he right-clicks on the ground. Wouldn't the hack let me see the place right as the click is done, not before? Of course, it may just manipulate the replay file. But then if you're watching a hacker live from his point of view, can the hack prevent an observer/referee to notice he's looking into the fog? These are things we need to clear up before we can say for sure that Spades is a hacker. @Bogeyman: Thank you for taking the time to write these. Could you clarify your definition of Class 0 please? If it was in an earlier analysis I must have missed it. Fyrewolf ... i think you should really not comment or open your mouth in any of those thread.... We all know you are very familiar with MH and i thought this thread would no longer be interesting after chebhe left.
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[QUOTE]On June 06 2012 08:28 Aunvilgod wrote: [QUOTE]On June 06 2012 08:16 Bogeyman wrote: [QUOTE]On June 06 2012 05:10 StarStrider wrote: [QUOTE]On June 06 2012 05:05 Bogeyman wrote: [QUOTE]On June 06 2012 01:38 Ghanburighan wrote: [QUOTE]On June 06 2012 01:17 Bogeyman wrote: Okay fine... instead of jumping the band-waggon "blindly" (I saw Catz and co stream their analysis) I'll look through the replays myself. I haven't even looked at the exact points brought up in the OP, and I'll just look through the replays myself and see if I find anything strange. [...][/QUOTE]
Sorry, but who are you? If you are a well known GM I apologize but I do not see how every little Silver/Gold/Plat would notice hacking. We guys should rather shut up and listen to what people who were playing competitive RTS for 10 years and even dealt with this specific hacker before have to say. This thread is like a class of 4th graders having an argument with their science teacher about a complicated scientific matter...[/QUOTE]
he has as much right to say what he thinks than any poster here, credibility is another story
i do agree with you to an extent but even pros haven't got a consensus.
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On June 06 2012 07:08 chebhe wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2012 07:06 itsjuspeter wrote:On June 06 2012 07:04 chebhe wrote: There isnt one piece of 'evidence' that hasnt been adequately explained. Infact the biggest piece of proof for MHs, which so many were crying out and citing repeatedly; a camera jumping around in an odd fashion, has already been shown to be a quirk of how replays store information.
THe biggest reason this isn't an open and shut case is the public is involved, and 95 percent of people are not taking the time to read and carefully, rationally consider the evidence. No, the biggest piece of evidence is his drastic change in PLAY from LADDER to this BO7. Your standards for evidence are too high and your arrogant posting makes me feel disgusted. Get informed before belittling people who don't agree with you. DUDE. That is NORMAL. You play a series DIFFERENTLY than you play ladder. There is a strategic logic to playing a series, which is not present in random ladder games. You study the opponent. You plan out the series. .... Why are you allowed to have an opinion? See, do you see how your opinion made no sense and was terrible right there? We have 100s of people like you in this thread, with terrible opinions based on nonsense, asserting them as rational fact. And then using them as defamation.
I love how you state that someone else's opinion is terrible before looking and considering your own. The guy is talking about mechanics and how he goes about playing the game, not strategies which would change from ladder to show match.
What the kid is citing is in ladder and while streaming Spades often looks at the fog of war, he doesn't often scan using minimap and will often look at scouted bases now in fog of war to double check bases. Also he will scan a lot like any Terran before moving out and such. But in this show match and other replays his play is considerably different. He often does NOT scan before moving units, in a lot of the games hes moving the units before scanning (which is either bad play or hacking).
He also VERY rarely goes into the fog of war, never rechecking bases, using the mini map to move units and scan. In the best of 7 vs lucifron he looked into fog of war like what 4 times total? In 1 replay of a ladder game that was streamed (i think) he looked into the fog of war to move units and such 5 times in less then 5 min.
THATS the difference in his play and its not something that could change from a ladder game to a show match!
Now who is the one with a terrible opinion?
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On June 06 2012 08:31 lulutheking wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2012 08:20 Fyrewolf wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On June 06 2012 08:16 Bogeyman wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2012 05:10 StarStrider wrote:On June 06 2012 05:05 Bogeyman wrote:On June 06 2012 01:38 Ghanburighan wrote:On June 06 2012 01:17 Bogeyman wrote: Okay fine... instead of jumping the band-waggon "blindly" (I saw Catz and co stream their analysis) I'll look through the replays myself. I haven't even looked at the exact points brought up in the OP, and I'll just look through the replays myself and see if I find anything strange. I'll rate everything in terms of how suspicious I find it. Even though I'm not exactly qualified to make exact judgments on how suspicious something is, it is a clear way for me to explain myself.
Class 1 - Could be co-incidence or just smart/prepared play Class 2 - Rather odd Class 3 - Seems fishy Class 4 - Highly unlikely behavior Class 5 - Clear proof
Map: Shattered Temple 6:03 - Class 1 - Blindly builds a raven a few seconds after cloak and a banshee starts for Lucifron. In Spades' defense he was already going for double-gas and was looking to go for either banshees or a raven way before it was clear that Lucifron was gonna go banshees. 7:09 -> 7:20 - Class 2 - Spades is staring at his base for a long time. What is he doing? With the screen right there, why isn't he building SCVs? 7:20 - Class 1 - Ravens and marines move into a good position to intecept the incoming banshee. Spades has no vision of it nor does he have any conclusive evidence that Lucifron is going banshees. However, he does see a hellion at his front, and since it's close-by-air it's not a bad idea to prepare for banshees so it could just be smart play. 8:00 - Class 4 - Screen pans towards Lucifron's main but stops dead before it reaches the fog. His raven+viking is issued a command to move over the gap between the bases, and shortly thereafter Spades also clicks them into the main without looking there, so unless he hacks he would have to click the minimap. It seems highly unlikely to pan towards a location, stop right before the fog, click over the gap on screen then move your cursor to the minimap and click in the main from there. The more likely behavior is to keep panning into the main (if you're already panning, and it's a short distance) and click when you reach the end location. This type of behavior, if consistent during e.g. a showmatch but basically never happens in normal play on ladder and such, should be enough to be considered as some sort of proof. On it's own it's just really weird behavior. 11:59 - Class 0 - Here Spades genuinely looks through the fog, at Lucifron's main base. It is part of moving his medivac over here, so he's obviously right-clicking the ground (three times, nothing weird about that). So this makes me wonder about what I heard regarding over-riding the screen lock if you right-click. We really need some sort of confirmation on that until this point can be dismissed as counter-evidence. 11:57 - Class 0? - Upon further examination I noticed some clicking in the main of Lucifron. It's right-clicking with the medivac, but you can't see these initial clicks if you stick the the Spades cam. These clicks probably only mean he first right-clicked on the minimap, then left-clicked and continued to right-click on the ground. There's even a brief pause between these clicks before looking at the fog and then the subsequent clicks looking at the fog. So there's really no doubt this is what happened, and it's not anything weird. I still mention it because it may be important once we know exactly how the screen locking works. Spades did look straight into the fog before right-clicking there on the ground but after right-clicking there via the minimap. Can this be replicated with the screen locking hack? If not, well then that's in Spades' favor. If it can be replicated, well then it just means that it's not in favor of either side of the argument.
I'll analyze the rest of the replays later. I've already missed quite a bit of E3. I look forward to more of your analysis. Edit: Papaz and others interested in the OP's identity will find a more suitable thread here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=14942771 It's nice to see someone appreciates it. ^^ So, moving on to the next replay. I'm probably doing them backwards but whatever... Again, these are my rates of suspicion: Class 1 - Could be co-incidence or just smart/prepared play Class 2 - Rather odd Class 3 - Seems fishy Class 4 - Highly unlikely behavior Class 5 - Clear proof Map: MLG Daybreak 2:52 - Class 2 - His SCV arrives and sits idle in Lucifrons main, and Spades jumps to it, clicks three times in the general direction of the ramp, then comes back to his own main and sends the SCV back home. He does not scout the left gas, get a good view of the saturation or attempt to look for anything that may be hidden in the fog inside Lucifron's main. He could just suspect a one-rax fast expand given the map and what he has seen Lucifron do in other matches, but it's still odd that he doesn't even try to scout both geysers. On his way out he does not catch of glimpse of the SCV that is ready to build a CC at the nat (in fact Lucifron purposely hides it). If perhaps Spades has brilliant minimap awareness he might have noticed that the SCV that built the barracks went down the ramp just as Spades' SCV enters. He was busy in his own main at the time, and it was only visible for a split second. 2:57 - Class 2 - Without any clear scouting information Spades sends an SCV to build the CC on the low-ground in his nat. Lucifron also does this, but he did check both geysers beforehand. It's just a bit odd though, that Spades wouldn't even try to check both geysers with that in mind. 4:06 - Class 2 - I was considering this might be a class 3, but... he could just be taking a huge risk, hoping Lucifron does what he has done before. It's still a stupid risk. Either way, at 4:06 Spades selects an SCV and sends it to his 3rd with the obvious intent of building another CC. At this time Lucifron still has no gas and only one barracks, but of course Spades has no vision of this, nor does he control any of the watchtowers. Once the SCV reaches the 3rd Lucifron has just recently started building his 3rd CC, smartly inside his main. Spades subsequently builds his CC at the 3rd. A couple seconds afterwards Spades takes the watchtower on his side with 2 marines. 12:39 - Class 1 - A marine in a scouting position is attacked and killed by Lucifrons main army moving towards Spades' constructing 4th. Spades doesn't try to look at the army to see the army composition, which is a bit weird, but it is also understandable and plausible that he wanted to focus on his commencing drop in Lucifron's 3rd, and he may well have simply assumed Lucifron's army composition would be as expected. Also, Spades had seen the double e-bay, 3rax with a techlab and two reactors, and a factory building a reactor for the a starport, so he was right to assume what unit composition would be there, except of course if there are any vikings mixed in with the medivacs or not. 14:30 - Class 2 - I remember Catz and the boys mentioning this. As far as Spades knows (shown by a scan a little while ago) Lucifron is sieged up right in front of his army, and just out of siege range. Lucifron's medivacs come into his vision, and Spades sends his entire marine force forward, straight into potential siege attacks. Why would he do that? Luckily (unless hacking) for Spades, Lucifron just unsieged his tanks and moved back with everything except his medivacs. Still, people make mistakes like this in positional TvT games, just not quite so obvious mistakes. 14:38 - Class 0 - If you want to argue Spades made mistakes he wouldn't have if he was hacking, this might be one of them. Spades moves a medivac into position for yet another drop at the 3rd of Lucifron, but now there's a turret there waiting for him and it kills the medivac with all but one marine in it. It really doesn't prove anything one way or another though, as even with maphack it's by no means certain that Spades would look there and/or notice the turret. Also, after some more looking around it seems the turret wasn't actually there when Spades sent the medivac in the first place. Hey, maybe Lucifron is the one hacking, building turrets when he sees medivacs coming? No... let's get back to being serious... 16:00 - Class 3 - Shortly up to this point there has been a lot of weird shadow-boxing going on. Granted Spades could just be moving his army around based on guess-work (an army killed a marine, then he had no idea where it kept moving, sent one marine to spot if the army went via the potential 5th base, and a scan from Lucifron. All the army movement of Spades' main army was based on that limited intel, and it mirrors Lucifron's hidden army movement rather well.) But it's possibly legit, and such things can happen. What stands out more to me the weird movement right at 16:00. He's about to go kill the rocks, but suddenly turns around and goes straight up the ramp where there may be an army of tanks sieged up for all Spades can see. He leads with his tanks and moves in a big clumped ball. The prize that's awaiting is unguarded medivacs once again, this time they were not even close to being in his vision and yet he sends his army straight to their location. Why doesn't he stim right away and pick them off? Well that would be too obvious. That would be a class 4 or even a 5, definitely a 5 if he stimmed a big group of marines. A single stimmed marine would be less suspicious to me than the clumped ball. Anyway, to make matters even more weird: as his army moves in a ball up the ramp, before he spots the unguarded medivacs, he goes back into his main and just leaves his army to it's fate. What does he do in the main? He seems to be selected the factories and starport, then switches to the barracks, and back and forth for a little bit. He's maxed so he doesn't actually need to do anything there except maybe add more barracks, which he doesn't. 17:31 - Class 2 - He sends his army towards the 3rd of Lucifron without scanning. He doesn't scan a single time to get positional information. He doesn't even look at his army as it approaches the 3rd. When it gets there he looks over and starts sieging, stimming etc. Why no scans? He has a total of 7 scans saved up before the attack, but instead of scanning he lands 3 mules at his 4th as his tanks are moving into who knows what. In his defense, and why I don't see this as a class 3 (though perhaps I should) is that in the last couple of minutes Lucifron has lost quite a bit of tanks, so perhaps Spades just isn't afraid. Still, he's leading with 8 tanks, 2 marines and 4 medivacs. If he's caught out of position he could lose a lot, but it could be prevented by a scan. It's really weird, but not conclusive evidence. I just gotta say my respect for Lucifron grew like hell watching that game. Even at the end when he ggs he's actually got a big lead in army size. His macro is amazing, it looked like Spades was just copying what Lucifron was doing, only taking slightly bigger risks (like not scout correctly and still build everything on the low-ground, scanning very rarely etc). I'll review another game soon I guess. I really like the way you've broken this down fair and objectively. I was going to do this but you beat me to it. :D Please continue. Also please analyze the Theognis vs Spades pack that Illusion posted, with the same format? Thanks! I'll see if I can get to the Theognis games before I tire or it feels like the discussion is over anyways. I guess with Spades leaving WW and possibly sc2 (?) we may not need to talk much more about it. But just for the sake of making sure I'll keep analyzing some more replays. Also, thanks to BoZiffer for the nice comment as well. Rates of suspicion: Class 1 - Could be co-incidence or just smart/prepared play Class 2 - Rather odd Class 3 - Seems fishy Class 4 - Highly unlikely behavior Class 5 - Clear proof Map: MLG Tal'Darim Altar 4:03 - Class 0 - He sends his marines to the watchtower. He clicks once to get the marines to move a bit, then switches over to the watchtower and clicks once there. So I don't know exactly how the screen locking hack works but this time at least he didn't click into the fog of war before looking at it, unlike the game on Shattered Temple where he right-clicked on the minimap first. Unless you can replicate that with a hack active (move screen to a location with fog of war, then right-click) and it still showing in the replay as if you move there before right-clicking your units there, this so far looks like he didn't hack in this game. Of course, you may still argue that he's stream-cheating or maybe using a different version of the hack this game. x:xx - Class 1 - So Spades is making a crapton of hellions in this game, from double-factory with tech-lab/reactor for blue-flame, and he really doesn't have any way to know if his opponent went 3-rax into gas or quick double gas and maybe banshees. But I will give him the benefit of a doubt, because at least he did see no gas at the start, so that's probably a 1-rax fast expand, and Spades is free to cross his fingers and hope there won't be any banshees incoming. Either way, at 7:20 he moves out with his hellions and checks the front and finds a bunker with two marines in it and 5 additional marines outside (though in fact there are 8 outside of the bunker, but Spades doesn't see it). That's a few marines, but not too many to say there can't be a banshee coming. Still Spades waits to build a starport for almost another minute, instead getting an armory first. Seems very risky, but it could just be that Spades was convinced of how Lucifron would play the map. 17:03 - Class 0 - Not much weird happens up until now (like 5 minor things occur, like movements with the hellions and such, but they really don't prove anything), and what happens now was pointed out as something hackish, but I just don't see it. What happens is Lucifron loads up a big drop to attack Spades' nat. What seemed suspicious was how Spades grouped his vikings and put them in a good position. The thing is the rally for the starport was right there anyway, and Spades only really selected all the vikings, added them to a control group (over-riding the hellions' group), and moved them an inch north. And before that he sieged his tanks. But this can't even have been a reaction to the drop, as the medivacs weren't loaded when the tanks sieged and the vikings were grouped basically at exactly the same time as the medivacs were loading. Sure, the positioning of Lucifron's units (if Spades' was hacking) was indicating he was going to drop, but it wasn't that certain. Regardless, Spades positioned himself well for an attack at the nat, whether by ground or air. The back/north of the main was protected by turrets, the hellions recently saw the position of the army, so even if an attack might come from way the fuck around the right side, it wasn't gonna come just yet. Well I guess there's always the possibility for a drop, but Spades had a pretty good setup at the time. 18:22 - Class 1 - This might seem suspicious, so I'll mention it even if I don't think it means much. Spades unsieges and moves closer to the ramp, and also a bit closer to his 3rd. He stays unsieged, which of course would be bad if a full-on frontal assault comes marching in. However, he just defeated a decent portion of Lucifron's army, and he hasn't seen where the rest if his army is, and he has basically no map vision. So unsieging his tanks gives him a chance to react to an attack at both his nat or his 3rd. Now maybe it would be even better if he set up a siege-line to cover both his nat and his 3rd, but I'm not sure if he has enough tanks (5) to do that without just spreading himself too thin and die from a flank with any decent amount of marauders in it. Either way this doesn't prove much of anything, and perhaps I shouldn't have mentioned it at all. 19:13 - Class 1 - Another thing I think was mentioned by someone on the call with Catz. As Lucifron's army approaches, without Spades seeing any of it, Spades sets up a great siege-line from his nat to his 3rd. It's not such a weird thing to do though, since now he has a much better tank count, and he can try to defend both locations. 32:14 - Class 0 - Here's a great scan from Spades, catching the army trying to approach the 3rd. I'm not sure, but I think catz and the boys mentioned this scan? I know it's not the magic scan they refer to, and it looks nothing like those scans regardless of them being magic or not. Anyway, this one can't be seen as a hack scan (scanning so you can act on what you already know) as he scans two other key locations that are empty before he finally finds the army. So far the game looks mostly legit. 32:44 - Class 4 - I might consider this a Class 4 (well actually, I do... I changed my mind after finishing this segment) if it wasn't for the fact that it's been a long game, Spades is probably stressed out, and Lucifron has been drilling the back of his main all game long, so now that he has fended off an attack at the 3rd (though the threat remains), I'm not entirely convinced he can't just snap and think "oh holy crap I don't have a spotter for the back of my main!" and totally over-react. However, it's also entirely possible that he's been so busy dealing with the attack at the 3rd and is exhausted from all the other attacks all over the place that he wasn't watching the minimap, seeing the army unloading in his main (with a maphack), and when he finally looked down and saw a blob of blue there he panicked and grabbed way too many units, even though he should've known the threat on the right side was just as bad, with or without a hack. At 32:39 it is very apparent that he wants to send his units straight towards that area (well, right next to it) in the main where Lucifron is unloading. You can see the air units are selected and there's a right-click a bit to the right of where the army is. Now, even if I think that perhaps Spades could think "oh crap, is my back protected?", he reacts too fast (after Lucifron let the pressure off on the 3rd) and too drastically for it to be anything other than a hack. I mean, that's what I think, but it's still not hard evidence. Also, if his thought-process is "I have to make sure my main isn't dropped" he would either instantly drop a scan (he does that much later, when his army is more or less in place to defend already) or he would at least let the vikings keep flying to scout the area. Instead he hesitates and stops his air units and moves them a bit to the right instead. Why the heck would he do that if he wants to stop a potential drop? The only thing I can think of is that if he is using a hack, he would think "I can't let him know that I'm getting in position. I need him to stay put while I get there". Maybe, just maybe he thinks he needs his vikings with his clump of tanks at his natural in case of an attack there. But why is this not true a couple seconds later when he moves lots of tanks and all the air units to his main and THEN scans Lucifron's army? He had a ton of energy for scans saved up! So that's enough for today... I could look at the Theognis games tomorrow if anyone still cares. As for the verdict so far: it's surely leaning towards guilty. But we really do need to clear up exactly how the screen lock works, and replicate the results we see in the game to see if it's possible. Because I have found a few situations where he does look into the fog of war right before he right-clicks on the ground. Wouldn't the hack let me see the place right as the click is done, not before? Of course, it may just manipulate the replay file. But then if you're watching a hacker live from his point of view, can the hack prevent an observer/referee to notice he's looking into the fog? These are things we need to clear up before we can say for sure that Spades is a hacker. @Bogeyman: Thank you for taking the time to write these. Could you clarify your definition of Class 0 please? If it was in an earlier analysis I must have missed it. Fyrewolf ... i think you should really not comment or open your mouth in any of those thread.... We all know you are very familiar with MH
Now I'm really confused...
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what i love about all these witchhunts is all the self righteous ppl calling for spade's head and stating their opinion on the replays as if it mattered. even better, some of them haven't even WATCHED the replays.
news flash, the only opinions that matter are the pro opinions who have watched the replays.
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On June 06 2012 08:36 Fyrewolf wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2012 08:31 lulutheking wrote:On June 06 2012 08:20 Fyrewolf wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On June 06 2012 08:16 Bogeyman wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2012 05:10 StarStrider wrote:On June 06 2012 05:05 Bogeyman wrote:On June 06 2012 01:38 Ghanburighan wrote:On June 06 2012 01:17 Bogeyman wrote: Okay fine... instead of jumping the band-waggon "blindly" (I saw Catz and co stream their analysis) I'll look through the replays myself. I haven't even looked at the exact points brought up in the OP, and I'll just look through the replays myself and see if I find anything strange. I'll rate everything in terms of how suspicious I find it. Even though I'm not exactly qualified to make exact judgments on how suspicious something is, it is a clear way for me to explain myself.
Class 1 - Could be co-incidence or just smart/prepared play Class 2 - Rather odd Class 3 - Seems fishy Class 4 - Highly unlikely behavior Class 5 - Clear proof
Map: Shattered Temple 6:03 - Class 1 - Blindly builds a raven a few seconds after cloak and a banshee starts for Lucifron. In Spades' defense he was already going for double-gas and was looking to go for either banshees or a raven way before it was clear that Lucifron was gonna go banshees. 7:09 -> 7:20 - Class 2 - Spades is staring at his base for a long time. What is he doing? With the screen right there, why isn't he building SCVs? 7:20 - Class 1 - Ravens and marines move into a good position to intecept the incoming banshee. Spades has no vision of it nor does he have any conclusive evidence that Lucifron is going banshees. However, he does see a hellion at his front, and since it's close-by-air it's not a bad idea to prepare for banshees so it could just be smart play. 8:00 - Class 4 - Screen pans towards Lucifron's main but stops dead before it reaches the fog. His raven+viking is issued a command to move over the gap between the bases, and shortly thereafter Spades also clicks them into the main without looking there, so unless he hacks he would have to click the minimap. It seems highly unlikely to pan towards a location, stop right before the fog, click over the gap on screen then move your cursor to the minimap and click in the main from there. The more likely behavior is to keep panning into the main (if you're already panning, and it's a short distance) and click when you reach the end location. This type of behavior, if consistent during e.g. a showmatch but basically never happens in normal play on ladder and such, should be enough to be considered as some sort of proof. On it's own it's just really weird behavior. 11:59 - Class 0 - Here Spades genuinely looks through the fog, at Lucifron's main base. It is part of moving his medivac over here, so he's obviously right-clicking the ground (three times, nothing weird about that). So this makes me wonder about what I heard regarding over-riding the screen lock if you right-click. We really need some sort of confirmation on that until this point can be dismissed as counter-evidence. 11:57 - Class 0? - Upon further examination I noticed some clicking in the main of Lucifron. It's right-clicking with the medivac, but you can't see these initial clicks if you stick the the Spades cam. These clicks probably only mean he first right-clicked on the minimap, then left-clicked and continued to right-click on the ground. There's even a brief pause between these clicks before looking at the fog and then the subsequent clicks looking at the fog. So there's really no doubt this is what happened, and it's not anything weird. I still mention it because it may be important once we know exactly how the screen locking works. Spades did look straight into the fog before right-clicking there on the ground but after right-clicking there via the minimap. Can this be replicated with the screen locking hack? If not, well then that's in Spades' favor. If it can be replicated, well then it just means that it's not in favor of either side of the argument.
I'll analyze the rest of the replays later. I've already missed quite a bit of E3. I look forward to more of your analysis. Edit: Papaz and others interested in the OP's identity will find a more suitable thread here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=14942771 It's nice to see someone appreciates it. ^^ So, moving on to the next replay. I'm probably doing them backwards but whatever... Again, these are my rates of suspicion: Class 1 - Could be co-incidence or just smart/prepared play Class 2 - Rather odd Class 3 - Seems fishy Class 4 - Highly unlikely behavior Class 5 - Clear proof Map: MLG Daybreak 2:52 - Class 2 - His SCV arrives and sits idle in Lucifrons main, and Spades jumps to it, clicks three times in the general direction of the ramp, then comes back to his own main and sends the SCV back home. He does not scout the left gas, get a good view of the saturation or attempt to look for anything that may be hidden in the fog inside Lucifron's main. He could just suspect a one-rax fast expand given the map and what he has seen Lucifron do in other matches, but it's still odd that he doesn't even try to scout both geysers. On his way out he does not catch of glimpse of the SCV that is ready to build a CC at the nat (in fact Lucifron purposely hides it). If perhaps Spades has brilliant minimap awareness he might have noticed that the SCV that built the barracks went down the ramp just as Spades' SCV enters. He was busy in his own main at the time, and it was only visible for a split second. 2:57 - Class 2 - Without any clear scouting information Spades sends an SCV to build the CC on the low-ground in his nat. Lucifron also does this, but he did check both geysers beforehand. It's just a bit odd though, that Spades wouldn't even try to check both geysers with that in mind. 4:06 - Class 2 - I was considering this might be a class 3, but... he could just be taking a huge risk, hoping Lucifron does what he has done before. It's still a stupid risk. Either way, at 4:06 Spades selects an SCV and sends it to his 3rd with the obvious intent of building another CC. At this time Lucifron still has no gas and only one barracks, but of course Spades has no vision of this, nor does he control any of the watchtowers. Once the SCV reaches the 3rd Lucifron has just recently started building his 3rd CC, smartly inside his main. Spades subsequently builds his CC at the 3rd. A couple seconds afterwards Spades takes the watchtower on his side with 2 marines. 12:39 - Class 1 - A marine in a scouting position is attacked and killed by Lucifrons main army moving towards Spades' constructing 4th. Spades doesn't try to look at the army to see the army composition, which is a bit weird, but it is also understandable and plausible that he wanted to focus on his commencing drop in Lucifron's 3rd, and he may well have simply assumed Lucifron's army composition would be as expected. Also, Spades had seen the double e-bay, 3rax with a techlab and two reactors, and a factory building a reactor for the a starport, so he was right to assume what unit composition would be there, except of course if there are any vikings mixed in with the medivacs or not. 14:30 - Class 2 - I remember Catz and the boys mentioning this. As far as Spades knows (shown by a scan a little while ago) Lucifron is sieged up right in front of his army, and just out of siege range. Lucifron's medivacs come into his vision, and Spades sends his entire marine force forward, straight into potential siege attacks. Why would he do that? Luckily (unless hacking) for Spades, Lucifron just unsieged his tanks and moved back with everything except his medivacs. Still, people make mistakes like this in positional TvT games, just not quite so obvious mistakes. 14:38 - Class 0 - If you want to argue Spades made mistakes he wouldn't have if he was hacking, this might be one of them. Spades moves a medivac into position for yet another drop at the 3rd of Lucifron, but now there's a turret there waiting for him and it kills the medivac with all but one marine in it. It really doesn't prove anything one way or another though, as even with maphack it's by no means certain that Spades would look there and/or notice the turret. Also, after some more looking around it seems the turret wasn't actually there when Spades sent the medivac in the first place. Hey, maybe Lucifron is the one hacking, building turrets when he sees medivacs coming? No... let's get back to being serious... 16:00 - Class 3 - Shortly up to this point there has been a lot of weird shadow-boxing going on. Granted Spades could just be moving his army around based on guess-work (an army killed a marine, then he had no idea where it kept moving, sent one marine to spot if the army went via the potential 5th base, and a scan from Lucifron. All the army movement of Spades' main army was based on that limited intel, and it mirrors Lucifron's hidden army movement rather well.) But it's possibly legit, and such things can happen. What stands out more to me the weird movement right at 16:00. He's about to go kill the rocks, but suddenly turns around and goes straight up the ramp where there may be an army of tanks sieged up for all Spades can see. He leads with his tanks and moves in a big clumped ball. The prize that's awaiting is unguarded medivacs once again, this time they were not even close to being in his vision and yet he sends his army straight to their location. Why doesn't he stim right away and pick them off? Well that would be too obvious. That would be a class 4 or even a 5, definitely a 5 if he stimmed a big group of marines. A single stimmed marine would be less suspicious to me than the clumped ball. Anyway, to make matters even more weird: as his army moves in a ball up the ramp, before he spots the unguarded medivacs, he goes back into his main and just leaves his army to it's fate. What does he do in the main? He seems to be selected the factories and starport, then switches to the barracks, and back and forth for a little bit. He's maxed so he doesn't actually need to do anything there except maybe add more barracks, which he doesn't. 17:31 - Class 2 - He sends his army towards the 3rd of Lucifron without scanning. He doesn't scan a single time to get positional information. He doesn't even look at his army as it approaches the 3rd. When it gets there he looks over and starts sieging, stimming etc. Why no scans? He has a total of 7 scans saved up before the attack, but instead of scanning he lands 3 mules at his 4th as his tanks are moving into who knows what. In his defense, and why I don't see this as a class 3 (though perhaps I should) is that in the last couple of minutes Lucifron has lost quite a bit of tanks, so perhaps Spades just isn't afraid. Still, he's leading with 8 tanks, 2 marines and 4 medivacs. If he's caught out of position he could lose a lot, but it could be prevented by a scan. It's really weird, but not conclusive evidence. I just gotta say my respect for Lucifron grew like hell watching that game. Even at the end when he ggs he's actually got a big lead in army size. His macro is amazing, it looked like Spades was just copying what Lucifron was doing, only taking slightly bigger risks (like not scout correctly and still build everything on the low-ground, scanning very rarely etc). I'll review another game soon I guess. I really like the way you've broken this down fair and objectively. I was going to do this but you beat me to it. :D Please continue. Also please analyze the Theognis vs Spades pack that Illusion posted, with the same format? Thanks! I'll see if I can get to the Theognis games before I tire or it feels like the discussion is over anyways. I guess with Spades leaving WW and possibly sc2 (?) we may not need to talk much more about it. But just for the sake of making sure I'll keep analyzing some more replays. Also, thanks to BoZiffer for the nice comment as well. Rates of suspicion: Class 1 - Could be co-incidence or just smart/prepared play Class 2 - Rather odd Class 3 - Seems fishy Class 4 - Highly unlikely behavior Class 5 - Clear proof Map: MLG Tal'Darim Altar 4:03 - Class 0 - He sends his marines to the watchtower. He clicks once to get the marines to move a bit, then switches over to the watchtower and clicks once there. So I don't know exactly how the screen locking hack works but this time at least he didn't click into the fog of war before looking at it, unlike the game on Shattered Temple where he right-clicked on the minimap first. Unless you can replicate that with a hack active (move screen to a location with fog of war, then right-click) and it still showing in the replay as if you move there before right-clicking your units there, this so far looks like he didn't hack in this game. Of course, you may still argue that he's stream-cheating or maybe using a different version of the hack this game. x:xx - Class 1 - So Spades is making a crapton of hellions in this game, from double-factory with tech-lab/reactor for blue-flame, and he really doesn't have any way to know if his opponent went 3-rax into gas or quick double gas and maybe banshees. But I will give him the benefit of a doubt, because at least he did see no gas at the start, so that's probably a 1-rax fast expand, and Spades is free to cross his fingers and hope there won't be any banshees incoming. Either way, at 7:20 he moves out with his hellions and checks the front and finds a bunker with two marines in it and 5 additional marines outside (though in fact there are 8 outside of the bunker, but Spades doesn't see it). That's a few marines, but not too many to say there can't be a banshee coming. Still Spades waits to build a starport for almost another minute, instead getting an armory first. Seems very risky, but it could just be that Spades was convinced of how Lucifron would play the map. 17:03 - Class 0 - Not much weird happens up until now (like 5 minor things occur, like movements with the hellions and such, but they really don't prove anything), and what happens now was pointed out as something hackish, but I just don't see it. What happens is Lucifron loads up a big drop to attack Spades' nat. What seemed suspicious was how Spades grouped his vikings and put them in a good position. The thing is the rally for the starport was right there anyway, and Spades only really selected all the vikings, added them to a control group (over-riding the hellions' group), and moved them an inch north. And before that he sieged his tanks. But this can't even have been a reaction to the drop, as the medivacs weren't loaded when the tanks sieged and the vikings were grouped basically at exactly the same time as the medivacs were loading. Sure, the positioning of Lucifron's units (if Spades' was hacking) was indicating he was going to drop, but it wasn't that certain. Regardless, Spades positioned himself well for an attack at the nat, whether by ground or air. The back/north of the main was protected by turrets, the hellions recently saw the position of the army, so even if an attack might come from way the fuck around the right side, it wasn't gonna come just yet. Well I guess there's always the possibility for a drop, but Spades had a pretty good setup at the time. 18:22 - Class 1 - This might seem suspicious, so I'll mention it even if I don't think it means much. Spades unsieges and moves closer to the ramp, and also a bit closer to his 3rd. He stays unsieged, which of course would be bad if a full-on frontal assault comes marching in. However, he just defeated a decent portion of Lucifron's army, and he hasn't seen where the rest if his army is, and he has basically no map vision. So unsieging his tanks gives him a chance to react to an attack at both his nat or his 3rd. Now maybe it would be even better if he set up a siege-line to cover both his nat and his 3rd, but I'm not sure if he has enough tanks (5) to do that without just spreading himself too thin and die from a flank with any decent amount of marauders in it. Either way this doesn't prove much of anything, and perhaps I shouldn't have mentioned it at all. 19:13 - Class 1 - Another thing I think was mentioned by someone on the call with Catz. As Lucifron's army approaches, without Spades seeing any of it, Spades sets up a great siege-line from his nat to his 3rd. It's not such a weird thing to do though, since now he has a much better tank count, and he can try to defend both locations. 32:14 - Class 0 - Here's a great scan from Spades, catching the army trying to approach the 3rd. I'm not sure, but I think catz and the boys mentioned this scan? I know it's not the magic scan they refer to, and it looks nothing like those scans regardless of them being magic or not. Anyway, this one can't be seen as a hack scan (scanning so you can act on what you already know) as he scans two other key locations that are empty before he finally finds the army. So far the game looks mostly legit. 32:44 - Class 4 - I might consider this a Class 4 (well actually, I do... I changed my mind after finishing this segment) if it wasn't for the fact that it's been a long game, Spades is probably stressed out, and Lucifron has been drilling the back of his main all game long, so now that he has fended off an attack at the 3rd (though the threat remains), I'm not entirely convinced he can't just snap and think "oh holy crap I don't have a spotter for the back of my main!" and totally over-react. However, it's also entirely possible that he's been so busy dealing with the attack at the 3rd and is exhausted from all the other attacks all over the place that he wasn't watching the minimap, seeing the army unloading in his main (with a maphack), and when he finally looked down and saw a blob of blue there he panicked and grabbed way too many units, even though he should've known the threat on the right side was just as bad, with or without a hack. At 32:39 it is very apparent that he wants to send his units straight towards that area (well, right next to it) in the main where Lucifron is unloading. You can see the air units are selected and there's a right-click a bit to the right of where the army is. Now, even if I think that perhaps Spades could think "oh crap, is my back protected?", he reacts too fast (after Lucifron let the pressure off on the 3rd) and too drastically for it to be anything other than a hack. I mean, that's what I think, but it's still not hard evidence. Also, if his thought-process is "I have to make sure my main isn't dropped" he would either instantly drop a scan (he does that much later, when his army is more or less in place to defend already) or he would at least let the vikings keep flying to scout the area. Instead he hesitates and stops his air units and moves them a bit to the right instead. Why the heck would he do that if he wants to stop a potential drop? The only thing I can think of is that if he is using a hack, he would think "I can't let him know that I'm getting in position. I need him to stay put while I get there". Maybe, just maybe he thinks he needs his vikings with his clump of tanks at his natural in case of an attack there. But why is this not true a couple seconds later when he moves lots of tanks and all the air units to his main and THEN scans Lucifron's army? He had a ton of energy for scans saved up! So that's enough for today... I could look at the Theognis games tomorrow if anyone still cares. As for the verdict so far: it's surely leaning towards guilty. But we really do need to clear up exactly how the screen lock works, and replicate the results we see in the game to see if it's possible. Because I have found a few situations where he does look into the fog of war right before he right-clicks on the ground. Wouldn't the hack let me see the place right as the click is done, not before? Of course, it may just manipulate the replay file. But then if you're watching a hacker live from his point of view, can the hack prevent an observer/referee to notice he's looking into the fog? These are things we need to clear up before we can say for sure that Spades is a hacker. @Bogeyman: Thank you for taking the time to write these. Could you clarify your definition of Class 0 please? If it was in an earlier analysis I must have missed it. Fyrewolf ... i think you should really not comment or open your mouth in any of those thread.... We all know you are very familiar with MH Now I'm really confused...
Considering it says you're U.S. and he's France, maybe he's getting you confused with another Fyrewolf on the EU server?
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+ Show Spoiler +OR MAYBE YOU HACK?! Time to start a new thread!!
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Would yall think it be alright if i download maphacks so that i can memorize timings better? LIke i would only use it against friends NEVER ladder NEVER 1v1 obs or anything now would that be okay? Not saying i will, just curious as to what people would think of that
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On June 06 2012 08:35 Josh111 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2012 07:08 chebhe wrote:On June 06 2012 07:06 itsjuspeter wrote:On June 06 2012 07:04 chebhe wrote: There isnt one piece of 'evidence' that hasnt been adequately explained. Infact the biggest piece of proof for MHs, which so many were crying out and citing repeatedly; a camera jumping around in an odd fashion, has already been shown to be a quirk of how replays store information.
THe biggest reason this isn't an open and shut case is the public is involved, and 95 percent of people are not taking the time to read and carefully, rationally consider the evidence. No, the biggest piece of evidence is his drastic change in PLAY from LADDER to this BO7. Your standards for evidence are too high and your arrogant posting makes me feel disgusted. Get informed before belittling people who don't agree with you. DUDE. That is NORMAL. You play a series DIFFERENTLY than you play ladder. There is a strategic logic to playing a series, which is not present in random ladder games. You study the opponent. You plan out the series. .... Why are you allowed to have an opinion? See, do you see how your opinion made no sense and was terrible right there? We have 100s of people like you in this thread, with terrible opinions based on nonsense, asserting them as rational fact. And then using them as defamation. I love how you state that someone else's opinion is terrible before looking and considering your own. The guy is talking about mechanics and how he goes about playing the game, not strategies which would change from ladder to show match. What the kid is citing is in ladder and while streaming Spades often looks at the fog of war, he doesn't often scan using minimap and will often look at scouted bases now in fog of war to double check bases. Also he will scan a lot like any Terran before moving out and such. But in this show match and other replays his play is considerably different. He often does NOT scan before moving units, in a lot of the games hes moving the units before scanning (which is either bad play or hacking). He also VERY rarely goes into the fog of war, never rechecking bases, using the mini map to move units and scan. In the best of 7 vs lucifron he looked into fog of war like what 4 times total? In 1 replay of a ladder game that was streamed (i think) he looked into the fog of war to move units and such 5 times in less then 5 min. THATS the difference in his play and its not something that could change from a ladder game to a show match! Now who is the one with a terrible opinion?
Yes, chebhe is arguing an emotional opinion and cannot see past it to the facts unfortunately. He has not accounted for the multitude of strange behaviour in spades' games but claims that all of the occurrences have been explained. They have not.
Some of them have possible explanations, like the "magic scan" but even the explanations dont explain why he doesn't LOOK where he scanned most of the time, he immediately pans without gathering any information.
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On June 06 2012 08:39 FabledIntegral wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2012 08:36 Fyrewolf wrote:On June 06 2012 08:31 lulutheking wrote:On June 06 2012 08:20 Fyrewolf wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On June 06 2012 08:16 Bogeyman wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2012 05:10 StarStrider wrote:On June 06 2012 05:05 Bogeyman wrote:On June 06 2012 01:38 Ghanburighan wrote:On June 06 2012 01:17 Bogeyman wrote: Okay fine... instead of jumping the band-waggon "blindly" (I saw Catz and co stream their analysis) I'll look through the replays myself. I haven't even looked at the exact points brought up in the OP, and I'll just look through the replays myself and see if I find anything strange. I'll rate everything in terms of how suspicious I find it. Even though I'm not exactly qualified to make exact judgments on how suspicious something is, it is a clear way for me to explain myself.
Class 1 - Could be co-incidence or just smart/prepared play Class 2 - Rather odd Class 3 - Seems fishy Class 4 - Highly unlikely behavior Class 5 - Clear proof
Map: Shattered Temple 6:03 - Class 1 - Blindly builds a raven a few seconds after cloak and a banshee starts for Lucifron. In Spades' defense he was already going for double-gas and was looking to go for either banshees or a raven way before it was clear that Lucifron was gonna go banshees. 7:09 -> 7:20 - Class 2 - Spades is staring at his base for a long time. What is he doing? With the screen right there, why isn't he building SCVs? 7:20 - Class 1 - Ravens and marines move into a good position to intecept the incoming banshee. Spades has no vision of it nor does he have any conclusive evidence that Lucifron is going banshees. However, he does see a hellion at his front, and since it's close-by-air it's not a bad idea to prepare for banshees so it could just be smart play. 8:00 - Class 4 - Screen pans towards Lucifron's main but stops dead before it reaches the fog. His raven+viking is issued a command to move over the gap between the bases, and shortly thereafter Spades also clicks them into the main without looking there, so unless he hacks he would have to click the minimap. It seems highly unlikely to pan towards a location, stop right before the fog, click over the gap on screen then move your cursor to the minimap and click in the main from there. The more likely behavior is to keep panning into the main (if you're already panning, and it's a short distance) and click when you reach the end location. This type of behavior, if consistent during e.g. a showmatch but basically never happens in normal play on ladder and such, should be enough to be considered as some sort of proof. On it's own it's just really weird behavior. 11:59 - Class 0 - Here Spades genuinely looks through the fog, at Lucifron's main base. It is part of moving his medivac over here, so he's obviously right-clicking the ground (three times, nothing weird about that). So this makes me wonder about what I heard regarding over-riding the screen lock if you right-click. We really need some sort of confirmation on that until this point can be dismissed as counter-evidence. 11:57 - Class 0? - Upon further examination I noticed some clicking in the main of Lucifron. It's right-clicking with the medivac, but you can't see these initial clicks if you stick the the Spades cam. These clicks probably only mean he first right-clicked on the minimap, then left-clicked and continued to right-click on the ground. There's even a brief pause between these clicks before looking at the fog and then the subsequent clicks looking at the fog. So there's really no doubt this is what happened, and it's not anything weird. I still mention it because it may be important once we know exactly how the screen locking works. Spades did look straight into the fog before right-clicking there on the ground but after right-clicking there via the minimap. Can this be replicated with the screen locking hack? If not, well then that's in Spades' favor. If it can be replicated, well then it just means that it's not in favor of either side of the argument.
I'll analyze the rest of the replays later. I've already missed quite a bit of E3. I look forward to more of your analysis. Edit: Papaz and others interested in the OP's identity will find a more suitable thread here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=14942771 It's nice to see someone appreciates it. ^^ So, moving on to the next replay. I'm probably doing them backwards but whatever... Again, these are my rates of suspicion: Class 1 - Could be co-incidence or just smart/prepared play Class 2 - Rather odd Class 3 - Seems fishy Class 4 - Highly unlikely behavior Class 5 - Clear proof Map: MLG Daybreak 2:52 - Class 2 - His SCV arrives and sits idle in Lucifrons main, and Spades jumps to it, clicks three times in the general direction of the ramp, then comes back to his own main and sends the SCV back home. He does not scout the left gas, get a good view of the saturation or attempt to look for anything that may be hidden in the fog inside Lucifron's main. He could just suspect a one-rax fast expand given the map and what he has seen Lucifron do in other matches, but it's still odd that he doesn't even try to scout both geysers. On his way out he does not catch of glimpse of the SCV that is ready to build a CC at the nat (in fact Lucifron purposely hides it). If perhaps Spades has brilliant minimap awareness he might have noticed that the SCV that built the barracks went down the ramp just as Spades' SCV enters. He was busy in his own main at the time, and it was only visible for a split second. 2:57 - Class 2 - Without any clear scouting information Spades sends an SCV to build the CC on the low-ground in his nat. Lucifron also does this, but he did check both geysers beforehand. It's just a bit odd though, that Spades wouldn't even try to check both geysers with that in mind. 4:06 - Class 2 - I was considering this might be a class 3, but... he could just be taking a huge risk, hoping Lucifron does what he has done before. It's still a stupid risk. Either way, at 4:06 Spades selects an SCV and sends it to his 3rd with the obvious intent of building another CC. At this time Lucifron still has no gas and only one barracks, but of course Spades has no vision of this, nor does he control any of the watchtowers. Once the SCV reaches the 3rd Lucifron has just recently started building his 3rd CC, smartly inside his main. Spades subsequently builds his CC at the 3rd. A couple seconds afterwards Spades takes the watchtower on his side with 2 marines. 12:39 - Class 1 - A marine in a scouting position is attacked and killed by Lucifrons main army moving towards Spades' constructing 4th. Spades doesn't try to look at the army to see the army composition, which is a bit weird, but it is also understandable and plausible that he wanted to focus on his commencing drop in Lucifron's 3rd, and he may well have simply assumed Lucifron's army composition would be as expected. Also, Spades had seen the double e-bay, 3rax with a techlab and two reactors, and a factory building a reactor for the a starport, so he was right to assume what unit composition would be there, except of course if there are any vikings mixed in with the medivacs or not. 14:30 - Class 2 - I remember Catz and the boys mentioning this. As far as Spades knows (shown by a scan a little while ago) Lucifron is sieged up right in front of his army, and just out of siege range. Lucifron's medivacs come into his vision, and Spades sends his entire marine force forward, straight into potential siege attacks. Why would he do that? Luckily (unless hacking) for Spades, Lucifron just unsieged his tanks and moved back with everything except his medivacs. Still, people make mistakes like this in positional TvT games, just not quite so obvious mistakes. 14:38 - Class 0 - If you want to argue Spades made mistakes he wouldn't have if he was hacking, this might be one of them. Spades moves a medivac into position for yet another drop at the 3rd of Lucifron, but now there's a turret there waiting for him and it kills the medivac with all but one marine in it. It really doesn't prove anything one way or another though, as even with maphack it's by no means certain that Spades would look there and/or notice the turret. Also, after some more looking around it seems the turret wasn't actually there when Spades sent the medivac in the first place. Hey, maybe Lucifron is the one hacking, building turrets when he sees medivacs coming? No... let's get back to being serious... 16:00 - Class 3 - Shortly up to this point there has been a lot of weird shadow-boxing going on. Granted Spades could just be moving his army around based on guess-work (an army killed a marine, then he had no idea where it kept moving, sent one marine to spot if the army went via the potential 5th base, and a scan from Lucifron. All the army movement of Spades' main army was based on that limited intel, and it mirrors Lucifron's hidden army movement rather well.) But it's possibly legit, and such things can happen. What stands out more to me the weird movement right at 16:00. He's about to go kill the rocks, but suddenly turns around and goes straight up the ramp where there may be an army of tanks sieged up for all Spades can see. He leads with his tanks and moves in a big clumped ball. The prize that's awaiting is unguarded medivacs once again, this time they were not even close to being in his vision and yet he sends his army straight to their location. Why doesn't he stim right away and pick them off? Well that would be too obvious. That would be a class 4 or even a 5, definitely a 5 if he stimmed a big group of marines. A single stimmed marine would be less suspicious to me than the clumped ball. Anyway, to make matters even more weird: as his army moves in a ball up the ramp, before he spots the unguarded medivacs, he goes back into his main and just leaves his army to it's fate. What does he do in the main? He seems to be selected the factories and starport, then switches to the barracks, and back and forth for a little bit. He's maxed so he doesn't actually need to do anything there except maybe add more barracks, which he doesn't. 17:31 - Class 2 - He sends his army towards the 3rd of Lucifron without scanning. He doesn't scan a single time to get positional information. He doesn't even look at his army as it approaches the 3rd. When it gets there he looks over and starts sieging, stimming etc. Why no scans? He has a total of 7 scans saved up before the attack, but instead of scanning he lands 3 mules at his 4th as his tanks are moving into who knows what. In his defense, and why I don't see this as a class 3 (though perhaps I should) is that in the last couple of minutes Lucifron has lost quite a bit of tanks, so perhaps Spades just isn't afraid. Still, he's leading with 8 tanks, 2 marines and 4 medivacs. If he's caught out of position he could lose a lot, but it could be prevented by a scan. It's really weird, but not conclusive evidence. I just gotta say my respect for Lucifron grew like hell watching that game. Even at the end when he ggs he's actually got a big lead in army size. His macro is amazing, it looked like Spades was just copying what Lucifron was doing, only taking slightly bigger risks (like not scout correctly and still build everything on the low-ground, scanning very rarely etc). I'll review another game soon I guess. I really like the way you've broken this down fair and objectively. I was going to do this but you beat me to it. :D Please continue. Also please analyze the Theognis vs Spades pack that Illusion posted, with the same format? Thanks! I'll see if I can get to the Theognis games before I tire or it feels like the discussion is over anyways. I guess with Spades leaving WW and possibly sc2 (?) we may not need to talk much more about it. But just for the sake of making sure I'll keep analyzing some more replays. Also, thanks to BoZiffer for the nice comment as well. Rates of suspicion: Class 1 - Could be co-incidence or just smart/prepared play Class 2 - Rather odd Class 3 - Seems fishy Class 4 - Highly unlikely behavior Class 5 - Clear proof Map: MLG Tal'Darim Altar 4:03 - Class 0 - He sends his marines to the watchtower. He clicks once to get the marines to move a bit, then switches over to the watchtower and clicks once there. So I don't know exactly how the screen locking hack works but this time at least he didn't click into the fog of war before looking at it, unlike the game on Shattered Temple where he right-clicked on the minimap first. Unless you can replicate that with a hack active (move screen to a location with fog of war, then right-click) and it still showing in the replay as if you move there before right-clicking your units there, this so far looks like he didn't hack in this game. Of course, you may still argue that he's stream-cheating or maybe using a different version of the hack this game. x:xx - Class 1 - So Spades is making a crapton of hellions in this game, from double-factory with tech-lab/reactor for blue-flame, and he really doesn't have any way to know if his opponent went 3-rax into gas or quick double gas and maybe banshees. But I will give him the benefit of a doubt, because at least he did see no gas at the start, so that's probably a 1-rax fast expand, and Spades is free to cross his fingers and hope there won't be any banshees incoming. Either way, at 7:20 he moves out with his hellions and checks the front and finds a bunker with two marines in it and 5 additional marines outside (though in fact there are 8 outside of the bunker, but Spades doesn't see it). That's a few marines, but not too many to say there can't be a banshee coming. Still Spades waits to build a starport for almost another minute, instead getting an armory first. Seems very risky, but it could just be that Spades was convinced of how Lucifron would play the map. 17:03 - Class 0 - Not much weird happens up until now (like 5 minor things occur, like movements with the hellions and such, but they really don't prove anything), and what happens now was pointed out as something hackish, but I just don't see it. What happens is Lucifron loads up a big drop to attack Spades' nat. What seemed suspicious was how Spades grouped his vikings and put them in a good position. The thing is the rally for the starport was right there anyway, and Spades only really selected all the vikings, added them to a control group (over-riding the hellions' group), and moved them an inch north. And before that he sieged his tanks. But this can't even have been a reaction to the drop, as the medivacs weren't loaded when the tanks sieged and the vikings were grouped basically at exactly the same time as the medivacs were loading. Sure, the positioning of Lucifron's units (if Spades' was hacking) was indicating he was going to drop, but it wasn't that certain. Regardless, Spades positioned himself well for an attack at the nat, whether by ground or air. The back/north of the main was protected by turrets, the hellions recently saw the position of the army, so even if an attack might come from way the fuck around the right side, it wasn't gonna come just yet. Well I guess there's always the possibility for a drop, but Spades had a pretty good setup at the time. 18:22 - Class 1 - This might seem suspicious, so I'll mention it even if I don't think it means much. Spades unsieges and moves closer to the ramp, and also a bit closer to his 3rd. He stays unsieged, which of course would be bad if a full-on frontal assault comes marching in. However, he just defeated a decent portion of Lucifron's army, and he hasn't seen where the rest if his army is, and he has basically no map vision. So unsieging his tanks gives him a chance to react to an attack at both his nat or his 3rd. Now maybe it would be even better if he set up a siege-line to cover both his nat and his 3rd, but I'm not sure if he has enough tanks (5) to do that without just spreading himself too thin and die from a flank with any decent amount of marauders in it. Either way this doesn't prove much of anything, and perhaps I shouldn't have mentioned it at all. 19:13 - Class 1 - Another thing I think was mentioned by someone on the call with Catz. As Lucifron's army approaches, without Spades seeing any of it, Spades sets up a great siege-line from his nat to his 3rd. It's not such a weird thing to do though, since now he has a much better tank count, and he can try to defend both locations. 32:14 - Class 0 - Here's a great scan from Spades, catching the army trying to approach the 3rd. I'm not sure, but I think catz and the boys mentioned this scan? I know it's not the magic scan they refer to, and it looks nothing like those scans regardless of them being magic or not. Anyway, this one can't be seen as a hack scan (scanning so you can act on what you already know) as he scans two other key locations that are empty before he finally finds the army. So far the game looks mostly legit. 32:44 - Class 4 - I might consider this a Class 4 (well actually, I do... I changed my mind after finishing this segment) if it wasn't for the fact that it's been a long game, Spades is probably stressed out, and Lucifron has been drilling the back of his main all game long, so now that he has fended off an attack at the 3rd (though the threat remains), I'm not entirely convinced he can't just snap and think "oh holy crap I don't have a spotter for the back of my main!" and totally over-react. However, it's also entirely possible that he's been so busy dealing with the attack at the 3rd and is exhausted from all the other attacks all over the place that he wasn't watching the minimap, seeing the army unloading in his main (with a maphack), and when he finally looked down and saw a blob of blue there he panicked and grabbed way too many units, even though he should've known the threat on the right side was just as bad, with or without a hack. At 32:39 it is very apparent that he wants to send his units straight towards that area (well, right next to it) in the main where Lucifron is unloading. You can see the air units are selected and there's a right-click a bit to the right of where the army is. Now, even if I think that perhaps Spades could think "oh crap, is my back protected?", he reacts too fast (after Lucifron let the pressure off on the 3rd) and too drastically for it to be anything other than a hack. I mean, that's what I think, but it's still not hard evidence. Also, if his thought-process is "I have to make sure my main isn't dropped" he would either instantly drop a scan (he does that much later, when his army is more or less in place to defend already) or he would at least let the vikings keep flying to scout the area. Instead he hesitates and stops his air units and moves them a bit to the right instead. Why the heck would he do that if he wants to stop a potential drop? The only thing I can think of is that if he is using a hack, he would think "I can't let him know that I'm getting in position. I need him to stay put while I get there". Maybe, just maybe he thinks he needs his vikings with his clump of tanks at his natural in case of an attack there. But why is this not true a couple seconds later when he moves lots of tanks and all the air units to his main and THEN scans Lucifron's army? He had a ton of energy for scans saved up! So that's enough for today... I could look at the Theognis games tomorrow if anyone still cares. As for the verdict so far: it's surely leaning towards guilty. But we really do need to clear up exactly how the screen lock works, and replicate the results we see in the game to see if it's possible. Because I have found a few situations where he does look into the fog of war right before he right-clicks on the ground. Wouldn't the hack let me see the place right as the click is done, not before? Of course, it may just manipulate the replay file. But then if you're watching a hacker live from his point of view, can the hack prevent an observer/referee to notice he's looking into the fog? These are things we need to clear up before we can say for sure that Spades is a hacker. @Bogeyman: Thank you for taking the time to write these. Could you clarify your definition of Class 0 please? If it was in an earlier analysis I must have missed it. Fyrewolf ... i think you should really not comment or open your mouth in any of those thread.... We all know you are very familiar with MH Now I'm really confused... Considering it says you're U.S. and he's France, maybe he's getting you confused with another Fyrewolf on the EU server? ... + Show Spoiler +OR MAYBE YOU HACK?! Time to start a new thread!!
Lol I actually don't use the name Fyrewolf for Sc2 since I used it for so much else already, Hell, even in BW I played far longer under DarkArchon.
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On June 06 2012 08:40 Picklebread wrote:Would yall think it be alright if i download maphacks so that i can memorize timings better? LIke i would only use it against friends NEVER ladder NEVER 1v1 obs or anything now would that be okay? Not saying i will, just curious as to what people would think of that  you could just use custom games. no need for a hack.
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On June 06 2012 08:39 fishjie wrote: what i love about all these witchhunts is all the self righteous ppl calling for spade's head and stating their opinion on the replays as if it mattered. even better, some of them haven't even WATCHED the replays.
news flash, the only opinions that matter are the pro opinions who have watched the replays.
Oh man you're going to change the world with that statement.
News flash. This is a forum. A place where discussion takes place. People can discuss things, and will discuss things. Will the pro player opinions hold more weight? Not really. Look at atteros post, he wasn't 100% correct at all. He actually thought that they (catz and co) were simply analyzing the replays for evidence of him hacking. When in reality that is completely wrong. They analyzed the replays for inconsistencies with the games against lucifron and highlighted them in a beautiful light.
P.S. You think your opinion matters more or is unique or something? Laugh out loud. You're a silly person.
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On June 06 2012 08:36 Fyrewolf wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2012 08:31 lulutheking wrote:On June 06 2012 08:20 Fyrewolf wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On June 06 2012 08:16 Bogeyman wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2012 05:10 StarStrider wrote:On June 06 2012 05:05 Bogeyman wrote:On June 06 2012 01:38 Ghanburighan wrote:On June 06 2012 01:17 Bogeyman wrote: Okay fine... instead of jumping the band-waggon "blindly" (I saw Catz and co stream their analysis) I'll look through the replays myself. I haven't even looked at the exact points brought up in the OP, and I'll just look through the replays myself and see if I find anything strange. I'll rate everything in terms of how suspicious I find it. Even though I'm not exactly qualified to make exact judgments on how suspicious something is, it is a clear way for me to explain myself.
Class 1 - Could be co-incidence or just smart/prepared play Class 2 - Rather odd Class 3 - Seems fishy Class 4 - Highly unlikely behavior Class 5 - Clear proof
Map: Shattered Temple 6:03 - Class 1 - Blindly builds a raven a few seconds after cloak and a banshee starts for Lucifron. In Spades' defense he was already going for double-gas and was looking to go for either banshees or a raven way before it was clear that Lucifron was gonna go banshees. 7:09 -> 7:20 - Class 2 - Spades is staring at his base for a long time. What is he doing? With the screen right there, why isn't he building SCVs? 7:20 - Class 1 - Ravens and marines move into a good position to intecept the incoming banshee. Spades has no vision of it nor does he have any conclusive evidence that Lucifron is going banshees. However, he does see a hellion at his front, and since it's close-by-air it's not a bad idea to prepare for banshees so it could just be smart play. 8:00 - Class 4 - Screen pans towards Lucifron's main but stops dead before it reaches the fog. His raven+viking is issued a command to move over the gap between the bases, and shortly thereafter Spades also clicks them into the main without looking there, so unless he hacks he would have to click the minimap. It seems highly unlikely to pan towards a location, stop right before the fog, click over the gap on screen then move your cursor to the minimap and click in the main from there. The more likely behavior is to keep panning into the main (if you're already panning, and it's a short distance) and click when you reach the end location. This type of behavior, if consistent during e.g. a showmatch but basically never happens in normal play on ladder and such, should be enough to be considered as some sort of proof. On it's own it's just really weird behavior. 11:59 - Class 0 - Here Spades genuinely looks through the fog, at Lucifron's main base. It is part of moving his medivac over here, so he's obviously right-clicking the ground (three times, nothing weird about that). So this makes me wonder about what I heard regarding over-riding the screen lock if you right-click. We really need some sort of confirmation on that until this point can be dismissed as counter-evidence. 11:57 - Class 0? - Upon further examination I noticed some clicking in the main of Lucifron. It's right-clicking with the medivac, but you can't see these initial clicks if you stick the the Spades cam. These clicks probably only mean he first right-clicked on the minimap, then left-clicked and continued to right-click on the ground. There's even a brief pause between these clicks before looking at the fog and then the subsequent clicks looking at the fog. So there's really no doubt this is what happened, and it's not anything weird. I still mention it because it may be important once we know exactly how the screen locking works. Spades did look straight into the fog before right-clicking there on the ground but after right-clicking there via the minimap. Can this be replicated with the screen locking hack? If not, well then that's in Spades' favor. If it can be replicated, well then it just means that it's not in favor of either side of the argument.
I'll analyze the rest of the replays later. I've already missed quite a bit of E3. I look forward to more of your analysis. Edit: Papaz and others interested in the OP's identity will find a more suitable thread here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=14942771 It's nice to see someone appreciates it. ^^ So, moving on to the next replay. I'm probably doing them backwards but whatever... Again, these are my rates of suspicion: Class 1 - Could be co-incidence or just smart/prepared play Class 2 - Rather odd Class 3 - Seems fishy Class 4 - Highly unlikely behavior Class 5 - Clear proof Map: MLG Daybreak 2:52 - Class 2 - His SCV arrives and sits idle in Lucifrons main, and Spades jumps to it, clicks three times in the general direction of the ramp, then comes back to his own main and sends the SCV back home. He does not scout the left gas, get a good view of the saturation or attempt to look for anything that may be hidden in the fog inside Lucifron's main. He could just suspect a one-rax fast expand given the map and what he has seen Lucifron do in other matches, but it's still odd that he doesn't even try to scout both geysers. On his way out he does not catch of glimpse of the SCV that is ready to build a CC at the nat (in fact Lucifron purposely hides it). If perhaps Spades has brilliant minimap awareness he might have noticed that the SCV that built the barracks went down the ramp just as Spades' SCV enters. He was busy in his own main at the time, and it was only visible for a split second. 2:57 - Class 2 - Without any clear scouting information Spades sends an SCV to build the CC on the low-ground in his nat. Lucifron also does this, but he did check both geysers beforehand. It's just a bit odd though, that Spades wouldn't even try to check both geysers with that in mind. 4:06 - Class 2 - I was considering this might be a class 3, but... he could just be taking a huge risk, hoping Lucifron does what he has done before. It's still a stupid risk. Either way, at 4:06 Spades selects an SCV and sends it to his 3rd with the obvious intent of building another CC. At this time Lucifron still has no gas and only one barracks, but of course Spades has no vision of this, nor does he control any of the watchtowers. Once the SCV reaches the 3rd Lucifron has just recently started building his 3rd CC, smartly inside his main. Spades subsequently builds his CC at the 3rd. A couple seconds afterwards Spades takes the watchtower on his side with 2 marines. 12:39 - Class 1 - A marine in a scouting position is attacked and killed by Lucifrons main army moving towards Spades' constructing 4th. Spades doesn't try to look at the army to see the army composition, which is a bit weird, but it is also understandable and plausible that he wanted to focus on his commencing drop in Lucifron's 3rd, and he may well have simply assumed Lucifron's army composition would be as expected. Also, Spades had seen the double e-bay, 3rax with a techlab and two reactors, and a factory building a reactor for the a starport, so he was right to assume what unit composition would be there, except of course if there are any vikings mixed in with the medivacs or not. 14:30 - Class 2 - I remember Catz and the boys mentioning this. As far as Spades knows (shown by a scan a little while ago) Lucifron is sieged up right in front of his army, and just out of siege range. Lucifron's medivacs come into his vision, and Spades sends his entire marine force forward, straight into potential siege attacks. Why would he do that? Luckily (unless hacking) for Spades, Lucifron just unsieged his tanks and moved back with everything except his medivacs. Still, people make mistakes like this in positional TvT games, just not quite so obvious mistakes. 14:38 - Class 0 - If you want to argue Spades made mistakes he wouldn't have if he was hacking, this might be one of them. Spades moves a medivac into position for yet another drop at the 3rd of Lucifron, but now there's a turret there waiting for him and it kills the medivac with all but one marine in it. It really doesn't prove anything one way or another though, as even with maphack it's by no means certain that Spades would look there and/or notice the turret. Also, after some more looking around it seems the turret wasn't actually there when Spades sent the medivac in the first place. Hey, maybe Lucifron is the one hacking, building turrets when he sees medivacs coming? No... let's get back to being serious... 16:00 - Class 3 - Shortly up to this point there has been a lot of weird shadow-boxing going on. Granted Spades could just be moving his army around based on guess-work (an army killed a marine, then he had no idea where it kept moving, sent one marine to spot if the army went via the potential 5th base, and a scan from Lucifron. All the army movement of Spades' main army was based on that limited intel, and it mirrors Lucifron's hidden army movement rather well.) But it's possibly legit, and such things can happen. What stands out more to me the weird movement right at 16:00. He's about to go kill the rocks, but suddenly turns around and goes straight up the ramp where there may be an army of tanks sieged up for all Spades can see. He leads with his tanks and moves in a big clumped ball. The prize that's awaiting is unguarded medivacs once again, this time they were not even close to being in his vision and yet he sends his army straight to their location. Why doesn't he stim right away and pick them off? Well that would be too obvious. That would be a class 4 or even a 5, definitely a 5 if he stimmed a big group of marines. A single stimmed marine would be less suspicious to me than the clumped ball. Anyway, to make matters even more weird: as his army moves in a ball up the ramp, before he spots the unguarded medivacs, he goes back into his main and just leaves his army to it's fate. What does he do in the main? He seems to be selected the factories and starport, then switches to the barracks, and back and forth for a little bit. He's maxed so he doesn't actually need to do anything there except maybe add more barracks, which he doesn't. 17:31 - Class 2 - He sends his army towards the 3rd of Lucifron without scanning. He doesn't scan a single time to get positional information. He doesn't even look at his army as it approaches the 3rd. When it gets there he looks over and starts sieging, stimming etc. Why no scans? He has a total of 7 scans saved up before the attack, but instead of scanning he lands 3 mules at his 4th as his tanks are moving into who knows what. In his defense, and why I don't see this as a class 3 (though perhaps I should) is that in the last couple of minutes Lucifron has lost quite a bit of tanks, so perhaps Spades just isn't afraid. Still, he's leading with 8 tanks, 2 marines and 4 medivacs. If he's caught out of position he could lose a lot, but it could be prevented by a scan. It's really weird, but not conclusive evidence. I just gotta say my respect for Lucifron grew like hell watching that game. Even at the end when he ggs he's actually got a big lead in army size. His macro is amazing, it looked like Spades was just copying what Lucifron was doing, only taking slightly bigger risks (like not scout correctly and still build everything on the low-ground, scanning very rarely etc). I'll review another game soon I guess. I really like the way you've broken this down fair and objectively. I was going to do this but you beat me to it. :D Please continue. Also please analyze the Theognis vs Spades pack that Illusion posted, with the same format? Thanks! I'll see if I can get to the Theognis games before I tire or it feels like the discussion is over anyways. I guess with Spades leaving WW and possibly sc2 (?) we may not need to talk much more about it. But just for the sake of making sure I'll keep analyzing some more replays. Also, thanks to BoZiffer for the nice comment as well. Rates of suspicion: Class 1 - Could be co-incidence or just smart/prepared play Class 2 - Rather odd Class 3 - Seems fishy Class 4 - Highly unlikely behavior Class 5 - Clear proof Map: MLG Tal'Darim Altar 4:03 - Class 0 - He sends his marines to the watchtower. He clicks once to get the marines to move a bit, then switches over to the watchtower and clicks once there. So I don't know exactly how the screen locking hack works but this time at least he didn't click into the fog of war before looking at it, unlike the game on Shattered Temple where he right-clicked on the minimap first. Unless you can replicate that with a hack active (move screen to a location with fog of war, then right-click) and it still showing in the replay as if you move there before right-clicking your units there, this so far looks like he didn't hack in this game. Of course, you may still argue that he's stream-cheating or maybe using a different version of the hack this game. x:xx - Class 1 - So Spades is making a crapton of hellions in this game, from double-factory with tech-lab/reactor for blue-flame, and he really doesn't have any way to know if his opponent went 3-rax into gas or quick double gas and maybe banshees. But I will give him the benefit of a doubt, because at least he did see no gas at the start, so that's probably a 1-rax fast expand, and Spades is free to cross his fingers and hope there won't be any banshees incoming. Either way, at 7:20 he moves out with his hellions and checks the front and finds a bunker with two marines in it and 5 additional marines outside (though in fact there are 8 outside of the bunker, but Spades doesn't see it). That's a few marines, but not too many to say there can't be a banshee coming. Still Spades waits to build a starport for almost another minute, instead getting an armory first. Seems very risky, but it could just be that Spades was convinced of how Lucifron would play the map. 17:03 - Class 0 - Not much weird happens up until now (like 5 minor things occur, like movements with the hellions and such, but they really don't prove anything), and what happens now was pointed out as something hackish, but I just don't see it. What happens is Lucifron loads up a big drop to attack Spades' nat. What seemed suspicious was how Spades grouped his vikings and put them in a good position. The thing is the rally for the starport was right there anyway, and Spades only really selected all the vikings, added them to a control group (over-riding the hellions' group), and moved them an inch north. And before that he sieged his tanks. But this can't even have been a reaction to the drop, as the medivacs weren't loaded when the tanks sieged and the vikings were grouped basically at exactly the same time as the medivacs were loading. Sure, the positioning of Lucifron's units (if Spades' was hacking) was indicating he was going to drop, but it wasn't that certain. Regardless, Spades positioned himself well for an attack at the nat, whether by ground or air. The back/north of the main was protected by turrets, the hellions recently saw the position of the army, so even if an attack might come from way the fuck around the right side, it wasn't gonna come just yet. Well I guess there's always the possibility for a drop, but Spades had a pretty good setup at the time. 18:22 - Class 1 - This might seem suspicious, so I'll mention it even if I don't think it means much. Spades unsieges and moves closer to the ramp, and also a bit closer to his 3rd. He stays unsieged, which of course would be bad if a full-on frontal assault comes marching in. However, he just defeated a decent portion of Lucifron's army, and he hasn't seen where the rest if his army is, and he has basically no map vision. So unsieging his tanks gives him a chance to react to an attack at both his nat or his 3rd. Now maybe it would be even better if he set up a siege-line to cover both his nat and his 3rd, but I'm not sure if he has enough tanks (5) to do that without just spreading himself too thin and die from a flank with any decent amount of marauders in it. Either way this doesn't prove much of anything, and perhaps I shouldn't have mentioned it at all. 19:13 - Class 1 - Another thing I think was mentioned by someone on the call with Catz. As Lucifron's army approaches, without Spades seeing any of it, Spades sets up a great siege-line from his nat to his 3rd. It's not such a weird thing to do though, since now he has a much better tank count, and he can try to defend both locations. 32:14 - Class 0 - Here's a great scan from Spades, catching the army trying to approach the 3rd. I'm not sure, but I think catz and the boys mentioned this scan? I know it's not the magic scan they refer to, and it looks nothing like those scans regardless of them being magic or not. Anyway, this one can't be seen as a hack scan (scanning so you can act on what you already know) as he scans two other key locations that are empty before he finally finds the army. So far the game looks mostly legit. 32:44 - Class 4 - I might consider this a Class 4 (well actually, I do... I changed my mind after finishing this segment) if it wasn't for the fact that it's been a long game, Spades is probably stressed out, and Lucifron has been drilling the back of his main all game long, so now that he has fended off an attack at the 3rd (though the threat remains), I'm not entirely convinced he can't just snap and think "oh holy crap I don't have a spotter for the back of my main!" and totally over-react. However, it's also entirely possible that he's been so busy dealing with the attack at the 3rd and is exhausted from all the other attacks all over the place that he wasn't watching the minimap, seeing the army unloading in his main (with a maphack), and when he finally looked down and saw a blob of blue there he panicked and grabbed way too many units, even though he should've known the threat on the right side was just as bad, with or without a hack. At 32:39 it is very apparent that he wants to send his units straight towards that area (well, right next to it) in the main where Lucifron is unloading. You can see the air units are selected and there's a right-click a bit to the right of where the army is. Now, even if I think that perhaps Spades could think "oh crap, is my back protected?", he reacts too fast (after Lucifron let the pressure off on the 3rd) and too drastically for it to be anything other than a hack. I mean, that's what I think, but it's still not hard evidence. Also, if his thought-process is "I have to make sure my main isn't dropped" he would either instantly drop a scan (he does that much later, when his army is more or less in place to defend already) or he would at least let the vikings keep flying to scout the area. Instead he hesitates and stops his air units and moves them a bit to the right instead. Why the heck would he do that if he wants to stop a potential drop? The only thing I can think of is that if he is using a hack, he would think "I can't let him know that I'm getting in position. I need him to stay put while I get there". Maybe, just maybe he thinks he needs his vikings with his clump of tanks at his natural in case of an attack there. But why is this not true a couple seconds later when he moves lots of tanks and all the air units to his main and THEN scans Lucifron's army? He had a ton of energy for scans saved up! So that's enough for today... I could look at the Theognis games tomorrow if anyone still cares. As for the verdict so far: it's surely leaning towards guilty. But we really do need to clear up exactly how the screen lock works, and replicate the results we see in the game to see if it's possible. Because I have found a few situations where he does look into the fog of war right before he right-clicks on the ground. Wouldn't the hack let me see the place right as the click is done, not before? Of course, it may just manipulate the replay file. But then if you're watching a hacker live from his point of view, can the hack prevent an observer/referee to notice he's looking into the fog? These are things we need to clear up before we can say for sure that Spades is a hacker. @Bogeyman: Thank you for taking the time to write these. Could you clarify your definition of Class 0 please? If it was in an earlier analysis I must have missed it. Fyrewolf ... i think you should really not comment or open your mouth in any of those thread.... We all know you are very familiar with MH Now I'm really confused...
Hey sorry ; got confused with this: Hummingbird (Me) vs Fyrepower - R(T) v. Z *Note that I am a random player, aka i rolled terran
Scan through replay, lack of scouting by him. He doesn't even scout the fact that I'm terran. He gets third base without knowing anything. Roaches when I get hellions. Never sees any of my base or anything I own until 14 minutes in. Which is my third. Counters all my pushes and knows the exact location where to engage my army, sometimes never even seeing it. Just look for signs throughout the whole replay. And lastly, ignore the fact I'm bad and didn't get combat shields the whole game.
Thanks! ~Hummingbird
Sorry , didn't want to hurt your name...
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On June 06 2012 08:40 Picklebread wrote:Would yall think it be alright if i download maphacks so that i can memorize timings better? LIke i would only use it against friends NEVER ladder NEVER 1v1 obs or anything now would that be okay? Not saying i will, just curious as to what people would think of that 
It would be better to create a custom map that lets you see everything, especially since you could be banned for just using it.
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at this point it looks like spades is cheating looks like, so it could be true or false. but it seems more likely to be true 90% of what catz, illusion, and drewbie said in their analysis was irrelevant and didn't look like hacks. they went in expecting hacks, so they were trying to find anything whatsoever that they could. most of what they said had me immediately thinking, "they could analyze my replays and say the same things" the other 10% looked highly suspicious and completely like hacks. unsieging every tank and moving it to the main without vision of drops was the biggest one for me. but, he could have spotted it with the barracks. i never watched the replays, only the stream. i don't trust the word of people who were going into the replays specifically to look for hacks any more than the man who supposedly hacks. based off of what i saw, it's hard to believe spades isn't hacking, but i still hope he isn't.
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On June 06 2012 08:42 lulutheking wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2012 08:36 Fyrewolf wrote:On June 06 2012 08:31 lulutheking wrote:On June 06 2012 08:20 Fyrewolf wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On June 06 2012 08:16 Bogeyman wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2012 05:10 StarStrider wrote:On June 06 2012 05:05 Bogeyman wrote:On June 06 2012 01:38 Ghanburighan wrote:On June 06 2012 01:17 Bogeyman wrote: Okay fine... instead of jumping the band-waggon "blindly" (I saw Catz and co stream their analysis) I'll look through the replays myself. I haven't even looked at the exact points brought up in the OP, and I'll just look through the replays myself and see if I find anything strange. I'll rate everything in terms of how suspicious I find it. Even though I'm not exactly qualified to make exact judgments on how suspicious something is, it is a clear way for me to explain myself.
Class 1 - Could be co-incidence or just smart/prepared play Class 2 - Rather odd Class 3 - Seems fishy Class 4 - Highly unlikely behavior Class 5 - Clear proof
Map: Shattered Temple 6:03 - Class 1 - Blindly builds a raven a few seconds after cloak and a banshee starts for Lucifron. In Spades' defense he was already going for double-gas and was looking to go for either banshees or a raven way before it was clear that Lucifron was gonna go banshees. 7:09 -> 7:20 - Class 2 - Spades is staring at his base for a long time. What is he doing? With the screen right there, why isn't he building SCVs? 7:20 - Class 1 - Ravens and marines move into a good position to intecept the incoming banshee. Spades has no vision of it nor does he have any conclusive evidence that Lucifron is going banshees. However, he does see a hellion at his front, and since it's close-by-air it's not a bad idea to prepare for banshees so it could just be smart play. 8:00 - Class 4 - Screen pans towards Lucifron's main but stops dead before it reaches the fog. His raven+viking is issued a command to move over the gap between the bases, and shortly thereafter Spades also clicks them into the main without looking there, so unless he hacks he would have to click the minimap. It seems highly unlikely to pan towards a location, stop right before the fog, click over the gap on screen then move your cursor to the minimap and click in the main from there. The more likely behavior is to keep panning into the main (if you're already panning, and it's a short distance) and click when you reach the end location. This type of behavior, if consistent during e.g. a showmatch but basically never happens in normal play on ladder and such, should be enough to be considered as some sort of proof. On it's own it's just really weird behavior. 11:59 - Class 0 - Here Spades genuinely looks through the fog, at Lucifron's main base. It is part of moving his medivac over here, so he's obviously right-clicking the ground (three times, nothing weird about that). So this makes me wonder about what I heard regarding over-riding the screen lock if you right-click. We really need some sort of confirmation on that until this point can be dismissed as counter-evidence. 11:57 - Class 0? - Upon further examination I noticed some clicking in the main of Lucifron. It's right-clicking with the medivac, but you can't see these initial clicks if you stick the the Spades cam. These clicks probably only mean he first right-clicked on the minimap, then left-clicked and continued to right-click on the ground. There's even a brief pause between these clicks before looking at the fog and then the subsequent clicks looking at the fog. So there's really no doubt this is what happened, and it's not anything weird. I still mention it because it may be important once we know exactly how the screen locking works. Spades did look straight into the fog before right-clicking there on the ground but after right-clicking there via the minimap. Can this be replicated with the screen locking hack? If not, well then that's in Spades' favor. If it can be replicated, well then it just means that it's not in favor of either side of the argument.
I'll analyze the rest of the replays later. I've already missed quite a bit of E3. I look forward to more of your analysis. Edit: Papaz and others interested in the OP's identity will find a more suitable thread here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=14942771 It's nice to see someone appreciates it. ^^ So, moving on to the next replay. I'm probably doing them backwards but whatever... Again, these are my rates of suspicion: Class 1 - Could be co-incidence or just smart/prepared play Class 2 - Rather odd Class 3 - Seems fishy Class 4 - Highly unlikely behavior Class 5 - Clear proof Map: MLG Daybreak 2:52 - Class 2 - His SCV arrives and sits idle in Lucifrons main, and Spades jumps to it, clicks three times in the general direction of the ramp, then comes back to his own main and sends the SCV back home. He does not scout the left gas, get a good view of the saturation or attempt to look for anything that may be hidden in the fog inside Lucifron's main. He could just suspect a one-rax fast expand given the map and what he has seen Lucifron do in other matches, but it's still odd that he doesn't even try to scout both geysers. On his way out he does not catch of glimpse of the SCV that is ready to build a CC at the nat (in fact Lucifron purposely hides it). If perhaps Spades has brilliant minimap awareness he might have noticed that the SCV that built the barracks went down the ramp just as Spades' SCV enters. He was busy in his own main at the time, and it was only visible for a split second. 2:57 - Class 2 - Without any clear scouting information Spades sends an SCV to build the CC on the low-ground in his nat. Lucifron also does this, but he did check both geysers beforehand. It's just a bit odd though, that Spades wouldn't even try to check both geysers with that in mind. 4:06 - Class 2 - I was considering this might be a class 3, but... he could just be taking a huge risk, hoping Lucifron does what he has done before. It's still a stupid risk. Either way, at 4:06 Spades selects an SCV and sends it to his 3rd with the obvious intent of building another CC. At this time Lucifron still has no gas and only one barracks, but of course Spades has no vision of this, nor does he control any of the watchtowers. Once the SCV reaches the 3rd Lucifron has just recently started building his 3rd CC, smartly inside his main. Spades subsequently builds his CC at the 3rd. A couple seconds afterwards Spades takes the watchtower on his side with 2 marines. 12:39 - Class 1 - A marine in a scouting position is attacked and killed by Lucifrons main army moving towards Spades' constructing 4th. Spades doesn't try to look at the army to see the army composition, which is a bit weird, but it is also understandable and plausible that he wanted to focus on his commencing drop in Lucifron's 3rd, and he may well have simply assumed Lucifron's army composition would be as expected. Also, Spades had seen the double e-bay, 3rax with a techlab and two reactors, and a factory building a reactor for the a starport, so he was right to assume what unit composition would be there, except of course if there are any vikings mixed in with the medivacs or not. 14:30 - Class 2 - I remember Catz and the boys mentioning this. As far as Spades knows (shown by a scan a little while ago) Lucifron is sieged up right in front of his army, and just out of siege range. Lucifron's medivacs come into his vision, and Spades sends his entire marine force forward, straight into potential siege attacks. Why would he do that? Luckily (unless hacking) for Spades, Lucifron just unsieged his tanks and moved back with everything except his medivacs. Still, people make mistakes like this in positional TvT games, just not quite so obvious mistakes. 14:38 - Class 0 - If you want to argue Spades made mistakes he wouldn't have if he was hacking, this might be one of them. Spades moves a medivac into position for yet another drop at the 3rd of Lucifron, but now there's a turret there waiting for him and it kills the medivac with all but one marine in it. It really doesn't prove anything one way or another though, as even with maphack it's by no means certain that Spades would look there and/or notice the turret. Also, after some more looking around it seems the turret wasn't actually there when Spades sent the medivac in the first place. Hey, maybe Lucifron is the one hacking, building turrets when he sees medivacs coming? No... let's get back to being serious... 16:00 - Class 3 - Shortly up to this point there has been a lot of weird shadow-boxing going on. Granted Spades could just be moving his army around based on guess-work (an army killed a marine, then he had no idea where it kept moving, sent one marine to spot if the army went via the potential 5th base, and a scan from Lucifron. All the army movement of Spades' main army was based on that limited intel, and it mirrors Lucifron's hidden army movement rather well.) But it's possibly legit, and such things can happen. What stands out more to me the weird movement right at 16:00. He's about to go kill the rocks, but suddenly turns around and goes straight up the ramp where there may be an army of tanks sieged up for all Spades can see. He leads with his tanks and moves in a big clumped ball. The prize that's awaiting is unguarded medivacs once again, this time they were not even close to being in his vision and yet he sends his army straight to their location. Why doesn't he stim right away and pick them off? Well that would be too obvious. That would be a class 4 or even a 5, definitely a 5 if he stimmed a big group of marines. A single stimmed marine would be less suspicious to me than the clumped ball. Anyway, to make matters even more weird: as his army moves in a ball up the ramp, before he spots the unguarded medivacs, he goes back into his main and just leaves his army to it's fate. What does he do in the main? He seems to be selected the factories and starport, then switches to the barracks, and back and forth for a little bit. He's maxed so he doesn't actually need to do anything there except maybe add more barracks, which he doesn't. 17:31 - Class 2 - He sends his army towards the 3rd of Lucifron without scanning. He doesn't scan a single time to get positional information. He doesn't even look at his army as it approaches the 3rd. When it gets there he looks over and starts sieging, stimming etc. Why no scans? He has a total of 7 scans saved up before the attack, but instead of scanning he lands 3 mules at his 4th as his tanks are moving into who knows what. In his defense, and why I don't see this as a class 3 (though perhaps I should) is that in the last couple of minutes Lucifron has lost quite a bit of tanks, so perhaps Spades just isn't afraid. Still, he's leading with 8 tanks, 2 marines and 4 medivacs. If he's caught out of position he could lose a lot, but it could be prevented by a scan. It's really weird, but not conclusive evidence. I just gotta say my respect for Lucifron grew like hell watching that game. Even at the end when he ggs he's actually got a big lead in army size. His macro is amazing, it looked like Spades was just copying what Lucifron was doing, only taking slightly bigger risks (like not scout correctly and still build everything on the low-ground, scanning very rarely etc). I'll review another game soon I guess. I really like the way you've broken this down fair and objectively. I was going to do this but you beat me to it. :D Please continue. Also please analyze the Theognis vs Spades pack that Illusion posted, with the same format? Thanks! I'll see if I can get to the Theognis games before I tire or it feels like the discussion is over anyways. I guess with Spades leaving WW and possibly sc2 (?) we may not need to talk much more about it. But just for the sake of making sure I'll keep analyzing some more replays. Also, thanks to BoZiffer for the nice comment as well. Rates of suspicion: Class 1 - Could be co-incidence or just smart/prepared play Class 2 - Rather odd Class 3 - Seems fishy Class 4 - Highly unlikely behavior Class 5 - Clear proof Map: MLG Tal'Darim Altar 4:03 - Class 0 - He sends his marines to the watchtower. He clicks once to get the marines to move a bit, then switches over to the watchtower and clicks once there. So I don't know exactly how the screen locking hack works but this time at least he didn't click into the fog of war before looking at it, unlike the game on Shattered Temple where he right-clicked on the minimap first. Unless you can replicate that with a hack active (move screen to a location with fog of war, then right-click) and it still showing in the replay as if you move there before right-clicking your units there, this so far looks like he didn't hack in this game. Of course, you may still argue that he's stream-cheating or maybe using a different version of the hack this game. x:xx - Class 1 - So Spades is making a crapton of hellions in this game, from double-factory with tech-lab/reactor for blue-flame, and he really doesn't have any way to know if his opponent went 3-rax into gas or quick double gas and maybe banshees. But I will give him the benefit of a doubt, because at least he did see no gas at the start, so that's probably a 1-rax fast expand, and Spades is free to cross his fingers and hope there won't be any banshees incoming. Either way, at 7:20 he moves out with his hellions and checks the front and finds a bunker with two marines in it and 5 additional marines outside (though in fact there are 8 outside of the bunker, but Spades doesn't see it). That's a few marines, but not too many to say there can't be a banshee coming. Still Spades waits to build a starport for almost another minute, instead getting an armory first. Seems very risky, but it could just be that Spades was convinced of how Lucifron would play the map. 17:03 - Class 0 - Not much weird happens up until now (like 5 minor things occur, like movements with the hellions and such, but they really don't prove anything), and what happens now was pointed out as something hackish, but I just don't see it. What happens is Lucifron loads up a big drop to attack Spades' nat. What seemed suspicious was how Spades grouped his vikings and put them in a good position. The thing is the rally for the starport was right there anyway, and Spades only really selected all the vikings, added them to a control group (over-riding the hellions' group), and moved them an inch north. And before that he sieged his tanks. But this can't even have been a reaction to the drop, as the medivacs weren't loaded when the tanks sieged and the vikings were grouped basically at exactly the same time as the medivacs were loading. Sure, the positioning of Lucifron's units (if Spades' was hacking) was indicating he was going to drop, but it wasn't that certain. Regardless, Spades positioned himself well for an attack at the nat, whether by ground or air. The back/north of the main was protected by turrets, the hellions recently saw the position of the army, so even if an attack might come from way the fuck around the right side, it wasn't gonna come just yet. Well I guess there's always the possibility for a drop, but Spades had a pretty good setup at the time. 18:22 - Class 1 - This might seem suspicious, so I'll mention it even if I don't think it means much. Spades unsieges and moves closer to the ramp, and also a bit closer to his 3rd. He stays unsieged, which of course would be bad if a full-on frontal assault comes marching in. However, he just defeated a decent portion of Lucifron's army, and he hasn't seen where the rest if his army is, and he has basically no map vision. So unsieging his tanks gives him a chance to react to an attack at both his nat or his 3rd. Now maybe it would be even better if he set up a siege-line to cover both his nat and his 3rd, but I'm not sure if he has enough tanks (5) to do that without just spreading himself too thin and die from a flank with any decent amount of marauders in it. Either way this doesn't prove much of anything, and perhaps I shouldn't have mentioned it at all. 19:13 - Class 1 - Another thing I think was mentioned by someone on the call with Catz. As Lucifron's army approaches, without Spades seeing any of it, Spades sets up a great siege-line from his nat to his 3rd. It's not such a weird thing to do though, since now he has a much better tank count, and he can try to defend both locations. 32:14 - Class 0 - Here's a great scan from Spades, catching the army trying to approach the 3rd. I'm not sure, but I think catz and the boys mentioned this scan? I know it's not the magic scan they refer to, and it looks nothing like those scans regardless of them being magic or not. Anyway, this one can't be seen as a hack scan (scanning so you can act on what you already know) as he scans two other key locations that are empty before he finally finds the army. So far the game looks mostly legit. 32:44 - Class 4 - I might consider this a Class 4 (well actually, I do... I changed my mind after finishing this segment) if it wasn't for the fact that it's been a long game, Spades is probably stressed out, and Lucifron has been drilling the back of his main all game long, so now that he has fended off an attack at the 3rd (though the threat remains), I'm not entirely convinced he can't just snap and think "oh holy crap I don't have a spotter for the back of my main!" and totally over-react. However, it's also entirely possible that he's been so busy dealing with the attack at the 3rd and is exhausted from all the other attacks all over the place that he wasn't watching the minimap, seeing the army unloading in his main (with a maphack), and when he finally looked down and saw a blob of blue there he panicked and grabbed way too many units, even though he should've known the threat on the right side was just as bad, with or without a hack. At 32:39 it is very apparent that he wants to send his units straight towards that area (well, right next to it) in the main where Lucifron is unloading. You can see the air units are selected and there's a right-click a bit to the right of where the army is. Now, even if I think that perhaps Spades could think "oh crap, is my back protected?", he reacts too fast (after Lucifron let the pressure off on the 3rd) and too drastically for it to be anything other than a hack. I mean, that's what I think, but it's still not hard evidence. Also, if his thought-process is "I have to make sure my main isn't dropped" he would either instantly drop a scan (he does that much later, when his army is more or less in place to defend already) or he would at least let the vikings keep flying to scout the area. Instead he hesitates and stops his air units and moves them a bit to the right instead. Why the heck would he do that if he wants to stop a potential drop? The only thing I can think of is that if he is using a hack, he would think "I can't let him know that I'm getting in position. I need him to stay put while I get there". Maybe, just maybe he thinks he needs his vikings with his clump of tanks at his natural in case of an attack there. But why is this not true a couple seconds later when he moves lots of tanks and all the air units to his main and THEN scans Lucifron's army? He had a ton of energy for scans saved up! So that's enough for today... I could look at the Theognis games tomorrow if anyone still cares. As for the verdict so far: it's surely leaning towards guilty. But we really do need to clear up exactly how the screen lock works, and replicate the results we see in the game to see if it's possible. Because I have found a few situations where he does look into the fog of war right before he right-clicks on the ground. Wouldn't the hack let me see the place right as the click is done, not before? Of course, it may just manipulate the replay file. But then if you're watching a hacker live from his point of view, can the hack prevent an observer/referee to notice he's looking into the fog? These are things we need to clear up before we can say for sure that Spades is a hacker. @Bogeyman: Thank you for taking the time to write these. Could you clarify your definition of Class 0 please? If it was in an earlier analysis I must have missed it. Fyrewolf ... i think you should really not comment or open your mouth in any of those thread.... We all know you are very familiar with MH Now I'm really confused... Hey sorry ; got confused with this: Hummingbird (Me) vs Fyrepower - R(T) v. Z *Note that I am a random player, aka i rolled terran Scan through replay, lack of scouting by him. He doesn't even scout the fact that I'm terran. He gets third base without knowing anything. Roaches when I get hellions. Never sees any of my base or anything I own until 14 minutes in. Which is my third. Counters all my pushes and knows the exact location where to engage my army, sometimes never even seeing it. Just look for signs throughout the whole replay. And lastly, ignore the fact I'm bad and didn't get combat shields the whole game. Thanks! ~Hummingbird Sorry , didn't want to hurt your name...
It s'all good. I purposely made a new different name I've never used before for Sc2 so that on the longshot offchance I ever did get good enough to be pro it wouldn't be under this nickname that I've used before.
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On June 06 2012 08:45 SiN] wrote: at this point it looks like spades is cheating looks like, so it could be true or false. but it seems more likely to be true 90% of what catz, illusion, and drewbie said in their analysis was irrelevant and didn't look like hacks. they went in expecting hacks, so they were trying to find anything whatsoever that they could. most of what they said had me immediately thinking, "they could analyze my replays and say the same things" the other 10% looked highly suspicious and completely like hacks. unsieging every tank and moving it to the main without vision of drops was the biggest one for me. but, he could have spotted it with the barracks. i never watched the replays, only the stream. i don't trust the word of people who were going into the replays specifically to look for hacks any more than the man who supposedly hacks. based off of what i saw, it's hard to believe spades isn't hacking, but i still hope he isn't.
Oh look a misinformed person just spreading misinformation because they don't check facts before they spout said misinformation.
You're full of it when you're saying that they went in expecting hacks. They analyzed the replays before the stream, so unless you were in the call with them before everyone else could hear what they were saying, you have absolutely no right to state what went on, because you have no idea.
So you only watched the stream, not the replays. Then you go on to say "its hard to believe spades isnt hacking"! What a dull statement. They watched the replays, at least twice, and concluded after watching the replays with various other good people the first time, that he hacked. They looked at more information than you, and reached the same conclusion, yet you insult them for going in and acting bias when you have no idea what you're talking about.
You should be ashamed.
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On June 06 2012 08:16 Bogeyman wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2012 05:10 StarStrider wrote:On June 06 2012 05:05 Bogeyman wrote:On June 06 2012 01:38 Ghanburighan wrote:On June 06 2012 01:17 Bogeyman wrote: Okay fine... instead of jumping the band-waggon "blindly" (I saw Catz and co stream their analysis) I'll look through the replays myself. I haven't even looked at the exact points brought up in the OP, and I'll just look through the replays myself and see if I find anything strange. I'll rate everything in terms of how suspicious I find it. Even though I'm not exactly qualified to make exact judgments on how suspicious something is, it is a clear way for me to explain myself.
Class 1 - Could be co-incidence or just smart/prepared play Class 2 - Rather odd Class 3 - Seems fishy Class 4 - Highly unlikely behavior Class 5 - Clear proof
Map: Shattered Temple 6:03 - Class 1 - Blindly builds a raven a few seconds after cloak and a banshee starts for Lucifron. In Spades' defense he was already going for double-gas and was looking to go for either banshees or a raven way before it was clear that Lucifron was gonna go banshees. 7:09 -> 7:20 - Class 2 - Spades is staring at his base for a long time. What is he doing? With the screen right there, why isn't he building SCVs? 7:20 - Class 1 - Ravens and marines move into a good position to intecept the incoming banshee. Spades has no vision of it nor does he have any conclusive evidence that Lucifron is going banshees. However, he does see a hellion at his front, and since it's close-by-air it's not a bad idea to prepare for banshees so it could just be smart play. 8:00 - Class 4 - Screen pans towards Lucifron's main but stops dead before it reaches the fog. His raven+viking is issued a command to move over the gap between the bases, and shortly thereafter Spades also clicks them into the main without looking there, so unless he hacks he would have to click the minimap. It seems highly unlikely to pan towards a location, stop right before the fog, click over the gap on screen then move your cursor to the minimap and click in the main from there. The more likely behavior is to keep panning into the main (if you're already panning, and it's a short distance) and click when you reach the end location. This type of behavior, if consistent during e.g. a showmatch but basically never happens in normal play on ladder and such, should be enough to be considered as some sort of proof. On it's own it's just really weird behavior. 11:59 - Class 0 - Here Spades genuinely looks through the fog, at Lucifron's main base. It is part of moving his medivac over here, so he's obviously right-clicking the ground (three times, nothing weird about that). So this makes me wonder about what I heard regarding over-riding the screen lock if you right-click. We really need some sort of confirmation on that until this point can be dismissed as counter-evidence. 11:57 - Class 0? - Upon further examination I noticed some clicking in the main of Lucifron. It's right-clicking with the medivac, but you can't see these initial clicks if you stick the the Spades cam. These clicks probably only mean he first right-clicked on the minimap, then left-clicked and continued to right-click on the ground. There's even a brief pause between these clicks before looking at the fog and then the subsequent clicks looking at the fog. So there's really no doubt this is what happened, and it's not anything weird. I still mention it because it may be important once we know exactly how the screen locking works. Spades did look straight into the fog before right-clicking there on the ground but after right-clicking there via the minimap. Can this be replicated with the screen locking hack? If not, well then that's in Spades' favor. If it can be replicated, well then it just means that it's not in favor of either side of the argument.
I'll analyze the rest of the replays later. I've already missed quite a bit of E3. I look forward to more of your analysis. Edit: Papaz and others interested in the OP's identity will find a more suitable thread here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=14942771 It's nice to see someone appreciates it. ^^ So, moving on to the next replay. I'm probably doing them backwards but whatever... Again, these are my rates of suspicion: Class 1 - Could be co-incidence or just smart/prepared play Class 2 - Rather odd Class 3 - Seems fishy Class 4 - Highly unlikely behavior Class 5 - Clear proof Map: MLG Daybreak 2:52 - Class 2 - His SCV arrives and sits idle in Lucifrons main, and Spades jumps to it, clicks three times in the general direction of the ramp, then comes back to his own main and sends the SCV back home. He does not scout the left gas, get a good view of the saturation or attempt to look for anything that may be hidden in the fog inside Lucifron's main. He could just suspect a one-rax fast expand given the map and what he has seen Lucifron do in other matches, but it's still odd that he doesn't even try to scout both geysers. On his way out he does not catch of glimpse of the SCV that is ready to build a CC at the nat (in fact Lucifron purposely hides it). If perhaps Spades has brilliant minimap awareness he might have noticed that the SCV that built the barracks went down the ramp just as Spades' SCV enters. He was busy in his own main at the time, and it was only visible for a split second. 2:57 - Class 2 - Without any clear scouting information Spades sends an SCV to build the CC on the low-ground in his nat. Lucifron also does this, but he did check both geysers beforehand. It's just a bit odd though, that Spades wouldn't even try to check both geysers with that in mind. 4:06 - Class 2 - I was considering this might be a class 3, but... he could just be taking a huge risk, hoping Lucifron does what he has done before. It's still a stupid risk. Either way, at 4:06 Spades selects an SCV and sends it to his 3rd with the obvious intent of building another CC. At this time Lucifron still has no gas and only one barracks, but of course Spades has no vision of this, nor does he control any of the watchtowers. Once the SCV reaches the 3rd Lucifron has just recently started building his 3rd CC, smartly inside his main. Spades subsequently builds his CC at the 3rd. A couple seconds afterwards Spades takes the watchtower on his side with 2 marines. 12:39 - Class 1 - A marine in a scouting position is attacked and killed by Lucifrons main army moving towards Spades' constructing 4th. Spades doesn't try to look at the army to see the army composition, which is a bit weird, but it is also understandable and plausible that he wanted to focus on his commencing drop in Lucifron's 3rd, and he may well have simply assumed Lucifron's army composition would be as expected. Also, Spades had seen the double e-bay, 3rax with a techlab and two reactors, and a factory building a reactor for the a starport, so he was right to assume what unit composition would be there, except of course if there are any vikings mixed in with the medivacs or not. 14:30 - Class 2 - I remember Catz and the boys mentioning this. As far as Spades knows (shown by a scan a little while ago) Lucifron is sieged up right in front of his army, and just out of siege range. Lucifron's medivacs come into his vision, and Spades sends his entire marine force forward, straight into potential siege attacks. Why would he do that? Luckily (unless hacking) for Spades, Lucifron just unsieged his tanks and moved back with everything except his medivacs. Still, people make mistakes like this in positional TvT games, just not quite so obvious mistakes. 14:38 - Class 0 - If you want to argue Spades made mistakes he wouldn't have if he was hacking, this might be one of them. Spades moves a medivac into position for yet another drop at the 3rd of Lucifron, but now there's a turret there waiting for him and it kills the medivac with all but one marine in it. It really doesn't prove anything one way or another though, as even with maphack it's by no means certain that Spades would look there and/or notice the turret. Also, after some more looking around it seems the turret wasn't actually there when Spades sent the medivac in the first place. Hey, maybe Lucifron is the one hacking, building turrets when he sees medivacs coming? No... let's get back to being serious... 16:00 - Class 3 - Shortly up to this point there has been a lot of weird shadow-boxing going on. Granted Spades could just be moving his army around based on guess-work (an army killed a marine, then he had no idea where it kept moving, sent one marine to spot if the army went via the potential 5th base, and a scan from Lucifron. All the army movement of Spades' main army was based on that limited intel, and it mirrors Lucifron's hidden army movement rather well.) But it's possibly legit, and such things can happen. What stands out more to me the weird movement right at 16:00. He's about to go kill the rocks, but suddenly turns around and goes straight up the ramp where there may be an army of tanks sieged up for all Spades can see. He leads with his tanks and moves in a big clumped ball. The prize that's awaiting is unguarded medivacs once again, this time they were not even close to being in his vision and yet he sends his army straight to their location. Why doesn't he stim right away and pick them off? Well that would be too obvious. That would be a class 4 or even a 5, definitely a 5 if he stimmed a big group of marines. A single stimmed marine would be less suspicious to me than the clumped ball. Anyway, to make matters even more weird: as his army moves in a ball up the ramp, before he spots the unguarded medivacs, he goes back into his main and just leaves his army to it's fate. What does he do in the main? He seems to be selected the factories and starport, then switches to the barracks, and back and forth for a little bit. He's maxed so he doesn't actually need to do anything there except maybe add more barracks, which he doesn't. 17:31 - Class 2 - He sends his army towards the 3rd of Lucifron without scanning. He doesn't scan a single time to get positional information. He doesn't even look at his army as it approaches the 3rd. When it gets there he looks over and starts sieging, stimming etc. Why no scans? He has a total of 7 scans saved up before the attack, but instead of scanning he lands 3 mules at his 4th as his tanks are moving into who knows what. In his defense, and why I don't see this as a class 3 (though perhaps I should) is that in the last couple of minutes Lucifron has lost quite a bit of tanks, so perhaps Spades just isn't afraid. Still, he's leading with 8 tanks, 2 marines and 4 medivacs. If he's caught out of position he could lose a lot, but it could be prevented by a scan. It's really weird, but not conclusive evidence. I just gotta say my respect for Lucifron grew like hell watching that game. Even at the end when he ggs he's actually got a big lead in army size. His macro is amazing, it looked like Spades was just copying what Lucifron was doing, only taking slightly bigger risks (like not scout correctly and still build everything on the low-ground, scanning very rarely etc). I'll review another game soon I guess. + Show Spoiler + I really like the way you've broken this down fair and objectively. I was going to do this but you beat me to it. :D Please continue. Also please analyze the Theognis vs Spades pack that Illusion posted, with the same format?
Thanks! I'll see if I can get to the Theognis games before I tire or it feels like the discussion is over anyways. I guess with Spades leaving WW and possibly sc2 (?) we may not need to talk much more about it. But just for the sake of making sure I'll keep analyzing some more replays. Also, thanks to BoZiffer for the nice comment as well. Rates of suspicion: Class 1 - Could be co-incidence or just smart/prepared play Class 2 - Rather odd Class 3 - Seems fishy Class 4 - Highly unlikely behavior Class 5 - Clear proof Map: MLG Tal'Darim Altar 4:03 - Class 0 - He sends his marines to the watchtower. He clicks once to get the marines to move a bit, then switches over to the watchtower and clicks once there. So I don't know exactly how the screen locking hack works but this time at least he didn't click into the fog of war before looking at it, unlike the game on Shattered Temple where he right-clicked on the minimap first. Unless you can replicate that with a hack active (move screen to a location with fog of war, then right-click) and it still showing in the replay as if you move there before right-clicking your units there, this so far looks like he didn't hack in this game. Of course, you may still argue that he's stream-cheating or maybe using a different version of the hack this game. x:xx - Class 1 - So Spades is making a crapton of hellions in this game, from double-factory with tech-lab/reactor for blue-flame, and he really doesn't have any way to know if his opponent went 3-rax into gas or quick double gas and maybe banshees. But I will give him the benefit of a doubt, because at least he did see no gas at the start, so that's probably a 1-rax fast expand, and Spades is free to cross his fingers and hope there won't be any banshees incoming. Either way, at 7:20 he moves out with his hellions and checks the front and finds a bunker with two marines in it and 5 additional marines outside (though in fact there are 8 outside of the bunker, but Spades doesn't see it). That's a few marines, but not too many to say there can't be a banshee coming. Still Spades waits to build a starport for almost another minute, instead getting an armory first. Seems very risky, but it could just be that Spades was convinced of how Lucifron would play the map. 17:03 - Class 0 - Not much weird happens up until now (like 5 minor things occur, like movements with the hellions and such, but they really don't prove anything), and what happens now was pointed out as something hackish, but I just don't see it. What happens is Lucifron loads up a big drop to attack Spades' nat. What seemed suspicious was how Spades grouped his vikings and put them in a good position. The thing is the rally for the starport was right there anyway, and Spades only really selected all the vikings, added them to a control group (over-riding the hellions' group), and moved them an inch north. And before that he sieged his tanks. But this can't even have been a reaction to the drop, as the medivacs weren't loaded when the tanks sieged and the vikings were grouped basically at exactly the same time as the medivacs were loading. Sure, the positioning of Lucifron's units (if Spades' was hacking) was indicating he was going to drop, but it wasn't that certain. Regardless, Spades positioned himself well for an attack at the nat, whether by ground or air. The back/north of the main was protected by turrets, the hellions recently saw the position of the army, so even if an attack might come from way the fuck around the right side, it wasn't gonna come just yet. Well I guess there's always the possibility for a drop, but Spades had a pretty good setup at the time. 18:22 - Class 1 - This might seem suspicious, so I'll mention it even if I don't think it means much. Spades unsieges and moves closer to the ramp, and also a bit closer to his 3rd. He stays unsieged, which of course would be bad if a full-on frontal assault comes marching in. However, he just defeated a decent portion of Lucifron's army, and he hasn't seen where the rest if his army is, and he has basically no map vision. So unsieging his tanks gives him a chance to react to an attack at both his nat or his 3rd. Now maybe it would be even better if he set up a siege-line to cover both his nat and his 3rd, but I'm not sure if he has enough tanks (5) to do that without just spreading himself too thin and die from a flank with any decent amount of marauders in it. Either way this doesn't prove much of anything, and perhaps I shouldn't have mentioned it at all. 19:13 - Class 1 - Another thing I think was mentioned by someone on the call with Catz. As Lucifron's army approaches, without Spades seeing any of it, Spades sets up a great siege-line from his nat to his 3rd. It's not such a weird thing to do though, since now he has a much better tank count, and he can try to defend both locations. 32:14 - Class 0 - Here's a great scan from Spades, catching the army trying to approach the 3rd. I'm not sure, but I think catz and the boys mentioned this scan? I know it's not the magic scan they refer to, and it looks nothing like those scans regardless of them being magic or not. Anyway, this one can't be seen as a hack scan (scanning so you can act on what you already know) as he scans two other key locations that are empty before he finally finds the army. So far the game looks mostly legit. 32:44 - Class 4 - I might consider this a Class 4 (well actually, I do... I changed my mind after finishing this segment) if it wasn't for the fact that it's been a long game, Spades is probably stressed out, and Lucifron has been drilling the back of his main all game long, so now that he has fended off an attack at the 3rd (though the threat remains), I'm not entirely convinced he can't just snap and think "oh holy crap I don't have a spotter for the back of my main!" and totally over-react. However, it's also entirely possible that he's been so busy dealing with the attack at the 3rd and is exhausted from all the other attacks all over the place that he wasn't watching the minimap, seeing the army unloading in his main (with a maphack), and when he finally looked down and saw a blob of blue there he panicked and grabbed way too many units, even though he should've known the threat on the right side was just as bad, with or without a hack. At 32:39 it is very apparent that he wants to send his units straight towards that area (well, right next to it) in the main where Lucifron is unloading. You can see the air units are selected and there's a right-click a bit to the right of where the army is. Now, even if I think that perhaps Spades could think "oh crap, is my back protected?", he reacts too fast (after Lucifron let the pressure off on the 3rd) and too drastically for it to be anything other than a hack. I mean, that's what I think, but it's still not hard evidence. Also, if his thought-process is "I have to make sure my main isn't dropped" he would either instantly drop a scan (he does that much later, when his army is more or less in place to defend already) or he would at least let the vikings keep flying to scout the area. Instead he hesitates and stops his air units and moves them a bit to the right instead. Why the heck would he do that if he wants to stop a potential drop? The only thing I can think of is that if he is using a hack, he would think "I can't let him know that I'm getting in position. I need him to stay put while I get there". Maybe, just maybe he thinks he needs his vikings with his clump of tanks at his natural in case of an attack there. But why is this not true a couple seconds later when he moves lots of tanks and all the air units to his main and THEN scans Lucifron's army? He had a ton of energy for scans saved up! So that's enough for today... I could look at the Theognis games tomorrow if anyone still cares. As for the verdict so far: it's surely leaning towards guilty. But we really do need to clear up exactly how the screen lock works, and replicate the results we see in the game to see if it's possible. Because I have found a few situations where he does look into the fog of war right before he right-clicks on the ground. Wouldn't the hack let me see the place right as the click is done, not before? Of course, it may just manipulate the replay file. But then if you're watching a hacker live from his point of view, can the hack prevent an observer/referee to notice he's looking into the fog? These are things we need to clear up before we can say for sure that Spades is a hacker.
Read every word, thanks a lot for all the work. It really helps put things in focus.
I do not know if I agree with your tentative conclusion of guilty, yet, though. There are a number of class 0's which require some more analysis from the perspective of how the hack works (but you already know this).
As for the 32nd minute of the Tal'darim game, there's a blue blip on the minimap for Spades a bit earlier. That could be the cause of grabbing that army and then scanning. What do you think?
Thanks again.
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