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Match Making Rating Tool - Page 158

Forum Index > SC2 General
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Excalibur_Z
Profile Joined October 2002
United States12238 Posts
June 27 2013 19:56 GMT
#3141
Can you publish the new offsets in this thread as well?
Moderator
trissi1996
Profile Joined June 2013
Germany3 Posts
June 27 2013 20:25 GMT
#3142
I dont think the new offsets are correct i got promoted to gold 1 game ago and played mainly against gold opponents for the last 10 games or so.
mmr stats shows nearly all of them in silver !!!PIC
Aurik
Profile Joined June 2013
Germany12 Posts
June 27 2013 20:28 GMT
#3143
Thanks!!!
Aurik
Profile Joined June 2013
Germany12 Posts
June 27 2013 20:36 GMT
#3144
On June 28 2013 05:25 trissi1996 wrote:
I dont think the new offsets are correct i got promoted to gold 1 game ago and played mainly against gold opponents for the last 10 games or so.
mmr stats shows nearly all of them in silver !!!PIC


I answer this quesiton in German as i can speak better then (he might be a german too) - If u dont understand, pls tell me!

Ich habe ein ähnliches Phänomen beobachtet: Ich bin am Anfang in S4 nach Platin gesetzt worden, und werde seit dem auch überwiegend mit Platinleuten gemachted. MMR zeigt mich nun ebenfalls auf Goldlevel. Ich habe in letzter Zeit allerdings auch viele Games verloren, am Anfang des Graphen (wo ich gerade nach Platin eingestuft wurde) war ich ganz knapp über der Platinlinie. Ich denke daher das es kein Fehler ist.

Bei dir scheint es, dass du sehr nah an Gold dran bist, sodass es schon sein kann, dass du nach Gold eingestuft wurdest. Außerdem musst du beachten, dass sobald du Gold bist, vorzugsweise mit anderen Goldspielern eines ähnlichen MMRs gemacht wirst. Dh. selbst wenn du dann viel verlierst, wirst du, obwohl dein MMR vielleicht wieder wieder Silber entspricht, eher mit anderen Goldspielern gematched, die ebenfalls viel verloren haben.
IMScientist
Profile Joined March 2011
Italy125 Posts
June 28 2013 09:08 GMT
#3145
Hey thanks for the update, today played 1 game and i was promoted back to plat at 858 mmr points
This guy plays like he was sent down from heavens
korona
Profile Joined October 2009
1098 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-06-28 09:42:22
June 28 2013 09:33 GMT
#3146
On June 28 2013 04:56 Excalibur_Z wrote:
Can you publish the new offsets in this thread as well?

They are human readable from the bnet.data file. Here (bronze-silver to master-gm):
280,300,280,250,250,400

As reference these were offsets for two last seasons (lower league offsets might be little too low):
200,185,180,185,200,290
On June 28 2013 05:25 trissi1996 wrote:
I dont think the new offsets are correct i got promoted to gold 1 game ago and played mainly against gold opponents for the last 10 games or so.
mmr stats shows nearly all of them in silver !!!PIC

You had 4 silvers, 4 golds and 2 unknown (bnet profile problem or not ranked) opponents in your last 10 games. Good games were against silvers when you were in silver.

It is possible that lower league offsets are off, but will not make changes to them for a while. The very little amount of data (I did not check the validity of the data) we have suggest the lower league offsets could be even larger than I set based on user graphs. And 'fix' in your situation would be decreasing the size. Will check lower league offsets again when more data is available. Keep on playing (you provide more data at the same time)
korona
Profile Joined October 2009
1098 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-06-28 09:34:35
June 28 2013 09:34 GMT
#3147
Aurik
Profile Joined June 2013
Germany12 Posts
June 28 2013 13:34 GMT
#3148
What are these Offset Numbers? 280, 300, 280 etc... What do they mean?
InfCereal
Profile Joined December 2011
Canada1759 Posts
June 28 2013 14:28 GMT
#3149
On June 28 2013 22:34 Aurik wrote:
What are these Offset Numbers? 280, 300, 280 etc... What do they mean?


They're the offsets between leagues.

For example, the distance between bronze and silver is 280, silver to gold is 300, and so on.
Cereal
Mendelfist
Profile Joined September 2010
Sweden356 Posts
June 28 2013 14:57 GMT
#3150
On June 28 2013 23:28 InfCereal wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 28 2013 22:34 Aurik wrote:
What are these Offset Numbers? 280, 300, 280 etc... What do they mean?


They're the offsets between leagues.

For example, the distance between bronze and silver is 280, silver to gold is 300, and so on.


There is something about this that I don't understand. According to these offset changes the current (and previous within parenthesis) league thresholds are as follows:

280 (200) silver
580 (385) gold
860 (565) platinum
1110 (750) diamond
1360 (950) masters
1760 (1240) gm

If that's true, everyone previously in gold (385-565) should now have been demoted to silver (280-580).
Everyone previously in platinum (565-750) should now be in silver or gold (280-860).

Thats obviously not true. What am I missing?

Also, if I look at my archived data my ending MMR previous season was 511. My starting MMR this season is 788. Why the jump?
InfCereal
Profile Joined December 2011
Canada1759 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-06-28 15:55:11
June 28 2013 15:35 GMT
#3151
On June 28 2013 23:57 Mendelfist wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 28 2013 23:28 InfCereal wrote:
On June 28 2013 22:34 Aurik wrote:
What are these Offset Numbers? 280, 300, 280 etc... What do they mean?


They're the offsets between leagues.

For example, the distance between bronze and silver is 280, silver to gold is 300, and so on.


There is something about this that I don't understand. According to these offset changes the current (and previous within parenthesis) league thresholds are as follows:

280 (200) silver
580 (385) gold
860 (565) platinum
1110 (750) diamond
1360 (950) masters
1760 (1240) gm

If that's true, everyone previously in gold (385-565) should now have been demoted to silver (280-580).
Everyone previously in platinum (565-750) should now be in silver or gold (280-860).

Thats obviously not true. What am I missing?

Also, if I look at my archived data my ending MMR previous season was 511. My starting MMR this season is 788. Why the jump?


Your MMR also changes with the offsets.

EDIT: I wrote a bunch of stuff, then second guessed myself. I'll let korona explain it. I'm not confident enough in my explanation to keep it here.



Cereal
Mendelfist
Profile Joined September 2010
Sweden356 Posts
June 28 2013 15:54 GMT
#3152
On June 29 2013 00:35 InfCereal wrote:
I bolded the important part. It shows that your mmr is dependent on the league offsets.

It was a while since I looked at the MMR calculations too, but I thought that I understood them once. While I agree that league offsets obviously are involved in the calculations, MMR itself being dependent on them does not make sense. I'm pretty sure the real MMR (Blizzards) isn't. If you are right, this tool does not calculate MMR, but some sort of "pseudo MMR" which isn't comparable across seasons.
InfCereal
Profile Joined December 2011
Canada1759 Posts
June 28 2013 15:56 GMT
#3153
On June 29 2013 00:54 Mendelfist wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 29 2013 00:35 InfCereal wrote:
I bolded the important part. It shows that your mmr is dependent on the league offsets.

It was a while since I looked at the MMR calculations too, but I thought that I understood them once. While I agree that league offsets obviously are involved in the calculations, MMR itself being dependent on them does not make sense. I'm pretty sure the real MMR (Blizzards) isn't. If you are right, this tool does not calculate MMR, but some sort of "pseudo MMR" which isn't comparable across seasons.


it's not comparable across seasons, that's why we archive it.

I'm going to let Korona explain it, since I've lost all confidence in my explanation since writing it.
Cereal
Excalibur_Z
Profile Joined October 2002
United States12238 Posts
June 28 2013 16:42 GMT
#3154
Yeah Mendelfist is right. Blizzard's actual MMR is persistent and the leagues are just placed on top, like a second layer. According to this tool, you could have 1000 MMR at the end of one season, then play only one game and due to offset shifting have 800. Your actual--internal--MMR would only be around 980-1020 based on the outcome of the game. Functionally I suppose it doesn't matter because we're not actually getting the real MMR values anyway, and these are just rough promotion estimates which become more refined over time. That's something we've known since the beginning anyway though, because the offsets never matched up perfectly with those internal values.
Moderator
korona
Profile Joined October 2009
1098 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-06-28 16:57:40
June 28 2013 16:56 GMT
#3155
On June 29 2013 00:54 Mendelfist wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 29 2013 00:35 InfCereal wrote:
I bolded the important part. It shows that your mmr is dependent on the league offsets.

It was a while since I looked at the MMR calculations too, but I thought that I understood them once. While I agree that league offsets obviously are involved in the calculations, MMR itself being dependent on them does not make sense. I'm pretty sure the real MMR (Blizzards) isn't. If you are right, this tool does not calculate MMR, but some sort of "pseudo MMR" which isn't comparable across seasons.

You can check the calculations & more info from Not_That:s thread: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=332391

And yes. This is a reverse engineered model that gives quite close approximations of your MMR. The Blizzard's model may be different like the info they have given suggests.


In this model you calculate divisional MMRs (MMR for a certain league) and add the offsets to that and get your 'MMR' & your relative position in whole MMR range. Now indeed offsets & league sizes have increased compared to last 2 seasons. And relative MMRs compared to league borders have shifted. For example high diamond range players from last season became low diamond range players in beginning of this season. Please also note that these offsets are still small compared to the offsets used regarding WoL:

WoL offsets:
585,345,345,255,380,(590)
WoL prom offsets:
585,930,1275,1530,1910
Mendelfist
Profile Joined September 2010
Sweden356 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-06-28 17:18:19
June 28 2013 17:15 GMT
#3156
The problem I'm having with all this is that these offset changes in the MMR tool don't tell us (at least not in any immediately obvious way) how the league thresholds have changed, because the calculated MMRs depend on the offset changes themselves. It becomes kind of circular. For example, it looks like I'm at roughly the same place in gold as previous season, but I wouldn't know that by looking at the offset changes.

Without delving into the algorithms (I really don't want to :-) it feels like all the necessary information is there to calculate an "offset invariant MMR". Not that many would find it useful. Just a few nerds. :-)
NiteshadeSC2
Profile Joined August 2012
Canada98 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-07-01 01:34:54
July 01 2013 01:34 GMT
#3157
FYI, just promoted to platinum league (edit - demoted with the new ranking system): MMR tool is showing my mmr as 867 (just above the line). 53 games on the display. Thanks for the great tool. Best, Niteshade
www.niteshade.tv
Squishy123
Profile Joined November 2010
11 Posts
July 01 2013 22:40 GMT
#3158
Just got promoted to plat, MMR was at 864, moving average at 848.
MMR tool makes it so much fun to hunt for that promotion once you're getting close

Thanks!
Instawin
Profile Joined July 2013
2 Posts
July 03 2013 04:23 GMT
#3159
I decided to play a couple of games early in the morning even though I did doubt my capabilities half a sleep, I managed to win the 2 games I played and after the second win I got promoted to Diamond! I got super thrilled as it was only one week ago I left gold for platinum, I feel like a rising star right now! :D http://tinypic.com/r/2hd0076/5
korona
Profile Joined October 2009
1098 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-07-03 10:42:33
July 03 2013 10:33 GMT
#3160
Blizzard seems to have silently postponed Chinese season change. The Chinese ladder was locked last week according to news post on Chinese site (translation with Google) & bonus pools stopped growing. Now as I checked if new season has started for China, they have released the ladder lock --> bonus pool is growing like there never was a lock. I guess they have postponed new season to start at the same time as HotS is published for China (July 17)?

This mess thankfully does not affect MMR tool as I had accidentally set DB lock for Chinese server --> All games automatically set bad. Thus there is no wrong results caused by Blizzard locking and unlocking the Chinese ladder. I just released DB lock for China.

Edit: This post discusses only Chinese server. No other servers are affected
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