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NBA 2013-14 Season - Page 162

Forum Index > Sports
Post a Reply
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kidleaderr
Profile Joined April 2013
363 Posts
January 22 2014 13:52 GMT
#3221
KD4MVP
Jibba
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States22883 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-01-22 16:54:10
January 22 2014 16:25 GMT
#3222
I know I brought him up before but I'm doing it again since the Kings are my new favorite team to watch (since Bledsoe went down.) Rudy Gay also had a monster night last night, with 41 on 25 shots. His TS% in Sacramento is top 10 and eFG% is top 20 (slightly higher than Durant!).

I absolutely do not think Gay is a top 10 player or an alpha dog or really even worth his contract, but I wonder how big a problem it is to judge players' efficiency (note: absolutely not talking about PER) on a linear curve like we sort of do now. If you think of him like machine equipment in a factory, production is actually based on a parabolic curve where its greatest efficiency might be at only 70-80% of maximum output, and not only do you lose efficiency by pushing to 90%+ but you can actually cause a breakdown.

It's a lot easier to manage around a bottleneck in a factory system where machine B always follows machine A, but I'm not sure how you examine it in basketball, or how you can systematically determine player B is a great value at X shots per game, but a terrible value at Y shots per game.

Also, we hear that shooters just need to keep shooting themselves out of a slump, but maybe they should aim for a standard amount instead. I'm curious to see the actual ranges and standard deviations for NBA players are like, maybe I'll make a stats project out of it (aka Carmelo might take 21 shots per game, but what % of the time is he shooting 19 to 23 shots, 17 to 25 shots, less than 15 or more than 27 shots and how does his shooting fair in each of those quantities.) Maybe we got volume shooters like Gay and Mayo all wrong, and they're actually great scorers, just when they take fewer shots.

Now obviously you can say, "Of course Gay is shooting better, defenders are paying attention to Cousins and Thomas instead." The nice thing with SportsVU cameras is we can actually somewhat test whether that's true or not. What lineup he was in and how many defenders were actually within X feet. The next step would be to look at when Gay or Carmelo takes >=30 or <11 shots where is he actually taking them and under what condition. Cause if Carmelo's actually a 50% shooter when he takes 30 shots in a game and 20 are within 8ft, then you're able to say Carmelo gets a green light against the Heat and a red light against the Clippers. I want to describe with numbers under what conditions can you push their output beyond what's normally efficient.

When you think about it, barring injuries, NFL teams already informally do this with their running backs.
ModeratorNow I'm distant, dark in this anthrobeat
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-01-22 16:54:37
January 22 2014 16:54 GMT
#3223
if you can differentiate between kinds of shots, then that seems to be good information to add to a purely # of shots model. for example, if you can establish that going from 15 to 25 shots means he'll take 8 more bad, forced shots, then both the mechanism of inefficiency as well as the inefficiency itself becomes apparent

edit: derp didn't read the rest of your post lol
We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
January 22 2014 21:25 GMT
#3224
Use Synergy to check his shot types. Then compare the most run plays in the Raptors offense vs Sac with Rudy. Check to see what level of defenses he's torching and go from there. Glad Rudy is shining offensively right now as the 3rd best player on the team. Good for him. Still wouldn't pay him at Star level money unless he sustains this for a long time. Don't fall victim to contract year syndrome.
Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
Jibba
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States22883 Posts
January 22 2014 22:57 GMT
#3225
I imagine there's very little practical application of the information right now since not enough coaches and players buy into it. But itd be interesting to see if players have star level efficiency, just at lower quantities than the superstars.
ModeratorNow I'm distant, dark in this anthrobeat
MassHysteria
Profile Joined October 2010
United States3678 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-01-22 23:46:03
January 22 2014 23:44 GMT
#3226
Efficiency isn't an end-all statistic. It is just another tool to be used in the grand scheme of things. A lot of people seem (and will only grow) to misuse it in their analysis nowadays due to its popularity.
"Just ban all the J's...even jinklejoes" --unnamed source
icystorage
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
Jollibee19350 Posts
January 23 2014 00:13 GMT
#3227
durant pulled some aomine daiki shit on that game
LiquidDota StaffAre you ready for a Miracle-? We are! The International 2017 Champions!
Whatson
Profile Blog Joined January 2012
United States5356 Posts
January 23 2014 00:41 GMT
#3228
On January 23 2014 09:13 icystorage wrote:
durant pulled some aomine daiki shit on that game

lolol i thought i was the only one who read that manga.
¯\_(シ)_/¯
rebdomine
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
6040 Posts
January 23 2014 01:47 GMT
#3229
On January 23 2014 09:41 Whatson wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 23 2014 09:13 icystorage wrote:
durant pulled some aomine daiki shit on that game

lolol i thought i was the only one who read that manga.


I think a lot of basketball fans from Asia read that manga.
"Just because you are correct doesn't mean you are right!"
Disregard
Profile Blog Joined March 2007
China10252 Posts
January 23 2014 01:54 GMT
#3230
Damn... Gay injuried left achilles and now Cousins sprains left ankle.
"If I had to take a drug in order to be free, I'm screwed. Freedom exists in the mind, otherwise it doesn't exist."
Jibba
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States22883 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-01-23 01:58:26
January 23 2014 01:55 GMT
#3231
On January 23 2014 08:44 MassHysteria wrote:
Efficiency isn't an end-all statistic. It is just another tool to be used in the grand scheme of things. A lot of people seem (and will only grow) to misuse it in their analysis nowadays due to its popularity.

I mean 'efficiency' as an abstract way of saying performance/time played or shots taken or w/e. I don't mean a singular statistic and I absolutely 100% do not mean PER.

Also,
ModeratorNow I'm distant, dark in this anthrobeat
Doraemon
Profile Blog Joined January 2010
Australia14949 Posts
January 23 2014 01:57 GMT
#3232
so much for the kings resurgence.
Do yourself a favour and just STFU
MassHysteria
Profile Joined October 2010
United States3678 Posts
January 23 2014 02:03 GMT
#3233
On January 23 2014 10:55 Jibba wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 23 2014 08:44 MassHysteria wrote:
Efficiency isn't an end-all statistic. It is just another tool to be used in the grand scheme of things. A lot of people seem (and will only grow) to misuse it in their analysis nowadays due to its popularity.

I mean 'efficiency' as an abstract way of saying performance/time played or shots taken or w/e. I don't mean a singular statistic and I absolutely 100% do not mean PER.

Also,

Oh, I didn't mean it as a shot towards you if that's the way you are taking it. Absolutely not.
"Just ban all the J's...even jinklejoes" --unnamed source
Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-01-23 02:12:57
January 23 2014 02:05 GMT
#3234
On January 23 2014 07:57 Jibba wrote:
I imagine there's very little practical application of the information right now since not enough coaches and players buy into it. But itd be interesting to see if players have star level efficiency, just at lower quantities than the superstars.


a pretty good amount do if you mean scoring efficiency

Lots of coaches buy into efficiency. In fact I would hope every single one of them are aware of it at the Team level. It's another thing altogether in figuring out how to get high efficient, high possession offense/defense.
Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
zulu_nation8
Profile Blog Joined May 2005
China26351 Posts
January 23 2014 02:17 GMT
#3235
shouldn't gibson be starting over boozer permanently?
Doraemon
Profile Blog Joined January 2010
Australia14949 Posts
January 23 2014 02:34 GMT
#3236
Kawhi Leonard has fractured fourth metacarpal on his right hand

this season...
Do yourself a favour and just STFU
zulu_nation8
Profile Blog Joined May 2005
China26351 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-01-23 02:45:10
January 23 2014 02:43 GMT
#3237
This Celtics game is hilarious. Jeff Green's best game of his career probably.

Btw league pass is free till the 26th.
rebdomine
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
6040 Posts
January 23 2014 03:02 GMT
#3238
On January 23 2014 11:43 zulu_nation8 wrote:
This Celtics game is hilarious. Jeff Green's best game of his career probably.

Btw league pass is free till the 26th.


Didn't he have a really good game last year against the Heat toward the end of the season? I think he went off for 40+ in that one, in a losing effort.
"Just because you are correct doesn't mean you are right!"
Zorkmid
Profile Joined November 2008
4410 Posts
January 23 2014 03:03 GMT
#3239
On January 22 2014 12:19 icystorage wrote:
would it be good for his (durant) overall game if he bulks up?


When he gets older and slows down for sure. He's actually quite strong now though.
DystopiaX
Profile Joined October 2010
United States16236 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-01-23 03:08:02
January 23 2014 03:06 GMT
#3240
On January 23 2014 10:47 rebdomine wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 23 2014 09:41 Whatson wrote:
On January 23 2014 09:13 icystorage wrote:
durant pulled some aomine daiki shit on that game

lolol i thought i was the only one who read that manga.


I think a lot of basketball fans from Asia read that manga.

+1 to people reading that manga

also what he do
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