This CL Season reached three new records of the CL history.
- A team (napoli) is out with 12 points. This happened never before.
- A team (Zenit) qualifies for Ro16 with 6 points. Worst 2nd place.
- A team (ManC) is "only" 2nd with 15 points. Best 2nd place.

Liquid`Drone

Norway28854 Posts

December 12 2013 15:49 GMT

#1662

Bayern looks like the strongest team, but I don't think they have more than 25% chance of actually winning the CL.

sharkie

Austria18697 Posts

December 12 2013 16:14 GMT

#1663

Guys you must not forget the winners curse when you predict bayern!

Copymizer

Denmark2108 Posts

December 12 2013 16:29 GMT

#1664

But can we all agree on the most hungry team of call for CL trophy is real madrid, since it's been over 10 years now since they won it last

if arsenal win it with özil i'm gonna laugh so much

Steveling

Greece10806 Posts

December 12 2013 16:35 GMT

#1665

Yeah, normally I'd say bayern are the favorites but there's a reason no team have won 2 in a row.
RM, PSG, man.city if they qualify from ro16, barca and arsenal are the strongest candidates I think.

*oh and atletico, they are sick.

Steveling

Greece10806 Posts

December 12 2013 17:00 GMT

#1666

Found something awesome

[image loading]

Pandemona

Charlie Sheens House51493 Posts

December 12 2013 17:55 GMT

#1667

I have no idea how a draw made by luck can be a bigger odds for drawing a different ball xD

I'll use Arsenal as example.

They finished 2nd and are English thus they can't get Chelsea - Man Utd. They were in a group with Dortmund they cannot draw them, that leaves;

Real Madrid
PSG
Bayern
Atletico
Barcelona

How on earth does Bayern get to be double % chance of drawing Arsenal 0.O

ZeroChrome

Canada1001 Posts

December 12 2013 17:58 GMT

#1668

On December 13 2013 02:55 Pandemona wrote:
I have no idea how a draw made by luck can be a bigger odds for drawing a different ball xD

I'll use Arsenal as example.

They finished 2nd and are English thus they can't get Chelsea - Man Utd. They were in a group with Dortmund they cannot draw them, that leaves;

Real Madrid
PSG
Bayern
Atletico
Barcelona

How on earth does Bayern get to be double % chance of drawing Arsenal 0.O

Bayern has fewer possible opponents than the others. Compare the number of 0's in the columns.

Pandemona

Charlie Sheens House51493 Posts

December 12 2013 18:06 GMT

#1669

Indeed i agree with that, but still they will be drawn with 5 balls to choose from? Depending on when they will be drawn of course, but still most likely be 5 balls and then its 20% :s

sharkie

Austria18697 Posts

December 12 2013 18:09 GMT

#1670

On December 13 2013 03:06 Pandemona wrote:
Indeed i agree with that, but still they will be drawn with 5 balls to choose from? Depending on when they will be drawn of course, but still most likely be 5 balls and then its 20% :s

You weren't good at maths were you!

You can't just count the scenario with 5 balls, you also have to consider the other scenarios and then add all the probabilities together to get the overall probability of Arsenal-Bayern

Pandemona

Charlie Sheens House51493 Posts

December 12 2013 18:11 GMT

#1671

Well no i guess i wasn't LOL
But i still don't understand how the chances of X team being drawn before Y gives Z team more chance to play W team 0.O
Seems way to silleh

Guess we find out monday!

UEFA Champions League RO16 Draw 16th December 11:00 GMT (+00:00)

Liquid`Drone

Norway28854 Posts

December 12 2013 18:29 GMT

#1672

united can draw gala, olympiacos, schalke, zenit, milan
real can draw leverkusen, olympicakos, city, schalke, arsenal, zenit, milan
bayern can draw: gala, olympiacos, arsenal, zenit, milan
psg can draw leverkusen, gala, city, schalke, arsenal, zenit, milan
chelsea can draw leverkusen, gala, olympiacos, zenit, milan
atletico can draw leverkusen,gala,olympiacos, city, schalke, arsenal, milan
barca can draw leverkusen, gala, olympiacos, city, schalke, arsenal, zenit

basically a couple things become apparent here:
all the non-german and non-english teams have 7 different possible opponents, whereas the german and english teams only have 5 different possible opponents.
There are only so many various draw possibilities, and these differences need to be accounted for.
I'm not doing a good job explaining here now, but I'll try to make an example to illustrate why there are such differences and not just a flat 20% for all the german/english teams and a flat 14.3 for the others:
Like say, here's a mock draw I'm doing now, just randomly picking teams one after another

real-olympiacos
united-milan
psg-arsenal
bayern-gala
chelsea- oops, chelsea can only face leverkusen now after those first four drawings, because they can't be matched against any of the others. This is why leverkusen is so much more likely of an opponent for them than for any other team.
And then
dortmund ends up having to play against city – also a likely outcome
and then atletico gets schalke and barca gets zenit. (also reflected in how schalke is a more likely opponent than zenit for barca, even though they're not restricted from meeting either)

Like, this was really just me picking the top 4 and then taking 4 random possible opponents for them, and then the last 4 matches actually formed themselves due to the restrictions. Regardless of which 4 teams are drawn first, I think some of the latter matches will end up drawing themselves.

Dingodile

4139 Posts

December 12 2013 19:22 GMT

#1673

and if Arsenal were #1 and dortmund #2, then bayern would have only 4 possible opponents?! (Milan, zenith, gala, piräus)

I just dont want Bayern vs Arsenal

Liquid`Drone

Norway28854 Posts

December 12 2013 19:40 GMT

#1674

If Arsenal were #1 and Dortmund #2 then Bayern and Manchester City would both have only 4 possible opponents.

Nisyax

Netherlands756 Posts

December 12 2013 19:45 GMT

#1675

I'm glad that I am already beyond being disappointed everytime PSV fucks up. Also lol that aggression from Riera or whatever his name is. Edit: are you fucking kidding me, how do you even miss that.

wingpawn

Poland1342 Posts

December 12 2013 20:46 GMT

#1676

Wow. After 458 minutes of misery, Legia finally scores a goal in Europa League. Just in time lol.

Mensol

14536 Posts

December 12 2013 22:34 GMT

#1677

I have a strong feeling that either Galatasaray or Olympiacos will get Bayern Munih

I did randomly and results:

Manchester United vs AC Milan
Real Madrid vs Leverkusen
Bayern Munih vs Olympiacos
PSG vs Arsenal
Chelsea vs Zenit
Atletico Madrid vs Manchester City
Barcelona vs Galatasaray

Ferrose

United States11378 Posts

December 12 2013 23:09 GMT

#1678

UEFA Europa League - Qualified Teams for Round of 32

Pot 1

[image loading]

Valencia CF

PFC Ludogorets Razgrad

FC Red Bull Salzburg

FC Rubin Kazan

ACF Fiorentina

Eintracht Frankfurt

KRC Genk

Sevilla FC

Olympique Lyonnais

Trabzonspor AŞ

Tottenham Hotspur FC [image loading]

AZ Alkmaar

SSC Napoli

SL Benfica

FC Shakhtar Donetsk

FC Basel 1893

Pot 2

Swansea City AFC [image loading]

FC Chornomorets Odesa

Esbjerg fB

NK Maribor

FC Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk

Maccabi Tel-Aviv FC

FC Dynamo Kyiv

FC Slovan Liberec

Real Betis Balompié

SS Lazio

FC Anji Makhachkala

PAOK FC

AFC Ajax

Juventus FC

FC Porto

FC Viktoria Plzeň

Nations Represented:

Italy: 4

Ukraine: 4

Spain: 3

Czech Republic: 2
[image loading]

England: 2

Netherlands: 2

Portugal: 2

Russia: 2

Austria: 1

Belgium: 1

Bulgaria: 1

Denmark: 1

France: 1

Germany: 1

Greece: 1

Israel: 1

Turkey: 1

Slovenia: 1

Switzerland: 1

UEFA Europa League Round of 32 Draw: 16 December 12:00 GMT (+00:00)

Ferrose

United States11378 Posts

December 12 2013 23:10 GMT

#1679

On December 13 2013 07:34 Mensol wrote:
I have a strong feeling that either Galatasaray or Olympiacos will get Bayern Munih

You forgot Schalke and Dortmund

I'm kinda sad that Freiburg couldn't make it out of the group stage, but it's probably better this way given their domestic form

Liquid`Drone

Norway28854 Posts

December 12 2013 23:45 GMT

#1680

oh, europa league round of 32 is like, pot 1 group winner + half the cl #3 spots, and pot 2 group second place with the other half of cl #3 spots? pretty big difference between drawing juventus and esbjerg :D