[DreamHack] Winter Day 1 - Page 2

Hall0wed

United States8486 Posts

November 20 2012 13:11 GMT

#21

Dunno why ForGG is winning this ahead of Taeja and Hero but I like the idea so I voted for him too...

Should vote for Dimaga actually, he will win through the power of love.

Dodgin

Canada39254 Posts

November 20 2012 13:12 GMT

#22

Taeja's gonna take this, he can do it. He's a master of foreign tournaments and this player pool is very beatable.

Godwrath

Spain10131 Posts

November 20 2012 13:13 GMT

#23

Optertown, you are awesome.

opterown

Australia54784 Posts

November 20 2012 13:18 GMT

#24

On November 20 2012 22:13 Godwrath wrote:
Optertown, you are awesome.

thanks, hope this can cheer me up after quite a horrid past few days for prime lol

Koshi

Belgium38799 Posts

November 20 2012 13:45 GMT

#25

I hope a Terran can end this season in glory.

Pandemona

Charlie Sheens House51493 Posts

November 20 2012 13:47 GMT

#26

Go Thorzain

i think he is going to be a very very strong dark horse in this event! Stephano clear favorite for me if he turns up properly and with some anger from losing WCS.

Also, IdrA not in open bracket? Has he gone straight home from China then?

TheBB

Switzerland5133 Posts

November 20 2012 14:17 GMT

#27

Well, it's impossible to do the predictions really, since the last player in each group is such an unknown factor, but these should give you an idea of the situation anyway. (Here just assuming five players.)

Sorry that the detail view is so wide. I was torn whether to include the set scores or not, but since they're in spoilers I decided to do it anyway.

Edit: Oh, it doesn't break the layout! That's strange, it does so in the preview.

+ Show Spoiler [Group 1] +

Group 1

TaeJa
      Expected score: 2.67-1.33 (sets: 6.06-3.79)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 84.10%
      Most likely place: 1st (37.69%)

Stephano
      Expected score: 2.57-1.43 (sets: 5.90-3.97)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 81.57%
      Most likely place: 1st (33.12%)

Fraer
      Expected score: 1.95-2.05 (sets: 4.88-5.04)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 59.25%
      Most likely place: 4th (26.23%)

TheStC
      Expected score: 1.95-2.05 (sets: 4.88-5.05)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 59.09%
      Most likely place: 4th (26.45%)

SjoW
      Expected score: 0.87-3.13 (sets: 2.91-6.77)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 15.99%
      Most likely place: 5th (61.89%)

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +

Detailed placement probabilities

                     5th      4th      3rd      2nd      1st
         TaeJa:    4.18%   11.72%   18.75%   27.66%   37.69%
      Stephano:    4.94%   13.49%   20.34%   28.10%   33.12%
         Fraer:   14.52%   26.23%   25.48%   19.95%   13.82%
        TheStC:   14.46%   26.45%   25.37%   19.88%   13.83%
          SjoW:   61.89%   22.11%   10.06%    4.41%    1.53%

Match score

                     0-4      1-3      2-2      3-1      4-0
         TaeJa:    0.94%    9.24%   30.60%   40.65%   18.57%
      Stephano:    1.20%   11.23%   32.93%   38.78%   15.86%
         Fraer:    5.49%   26.61%   40.08%   23.22%    4.60%
        TheStC:    5.28%   27.15%   39.75%   23.21%    4.61%
          SjoW:   37.12%   42.24%   17.37%    3.11%    0.16%

Set score

                      -8       -7       -6       -5       -4       -3       -2       -1        0        1        2        3        4        5        6        7        8
         TaeJa:    0.05%    0.21%    0.33%    0.65%    1.83%    3.40%    4.04%    6.54%   11.04%   10.93%   10.49%   14.88%   13.47%    7.53%    6.76%    5.86%    1.99%
      Stephano:    0.05%    0.26%    0.42%    0.75%    2.41%    4.08%    4.66%    7.45%   12.25%   11.55%   10.29%   14.45%   12.40%    6.73%    5.92%    4.83%    1.51%
         Fraer:    0.37%    1.32%    2.21%    2.98%    6.93%   10.19%    9.11%   11.41%   15.49%   11.25%    8.32%    8.59%    6.02%    2.59%    1.75%    1.15%    0.31%
        TheStC:    0.30%    1.37%    1.94%    3.13%    7.17%   10.15%    9.20%   11.78%   14.92%   11.32%    8.19%    8.70%    6.11%    2.53%    1.73%    1.20%    0.26%
          SjoW:    5.48%   13.71%   12.35%   10.92%   15.98%   14.16%    8.29%    6.85%    6.06%    2.94%    1.43%    1.10%    0.50%    0.15%    0.05%    0.02%    0.00%

+ Show Spoiler [Group 2] +

Group 2

Mana
      Expected score: 2.51-1.49 (sets: 5.81-4.09)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 79.41%
      Most likely place: 1st (33.03%)

Bly
      Expected score: 2.49-1.51 (sets: 5.78-4.13)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 79.10%
      Most likely place: 1st (32.56%)

SaSe
      Expected score: 2.13-1.87 (sets: 5.18-4.76)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 66.35%
      Most likely place: 3rd (23.66%)

Socke
      Expected score: 1.75-2.25 (sets: 4.54-5.39)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 50.29%
      Most likely place: 4th (27.20%)

StarNaN
      Expected score: 1.13-2.87 (sets: 3.43-6.38)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 24.85%
      Most likely place: 5th (50.31%)

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +

Detailed placement probabilities

                     5th      4th      3rd      2nd      1st
          Mana:    6.88%   13.71%   19.80%   26.58%   33.03%
           Bly:    7.04%   13.86%   20.22%   26.33%   32.56%
          SaSe:   13.26%   20.39%   23.66%   22.76%   19.94%
       StarNaN:   50.31%   24.84%   13.85%    7.50%    3.49%
         Socke:   22.51%   27.20%   22.47%   16.83%   10.98%

Match score

                     0-4      1-3      2-2      3-1      4-0
          Mana:    1.72%   12.59%   33.45%   37.65%   14.58%
           Bly:    1.80%   12.81%   33.93%   37.42%   14.04%
          SaSe:    4.26%   21.54%   38.74%   28.23%    7.23%
       StarNaN:   26.08%   42.42%   24.69%    6.25%    0.57%
         Socke:    8.87%   31.88%   38.10%   18.00%    3.15%

Set score

                      -8       -7       -6       -5       -4       -3       -2       -1        0        1        2        3        4        5        6        7        8
          Mana:    0.07%    0.34%    0.65%    1.08%    2.61%    4.71%    5.10%    7.80%   12.59%   11.52%   10.60%   13.85%   11.70%    6.17%    5.37%    4.50%    1.34%
           Bly:    0.10%    0.36%    0.66%    1.07%    2.78%    4.81%    5.12%    8.08%   12.49%   11.71%   10.50%   13.81%   11.72%    6.24%    5.15%    4.17%    1.22%
          SaSe:    0.23%    1.07%    1.63%    2.26%    5.56%    8.12%    7.72%   10.65%   14.69%   11.54%    9.44%   10.21%    8.05%    3.75%    2.77%    1.88%    0.42%
       StarNaN:    3.11%    8.80%    9.13%    9.21%   14.81%   15.13%    9.81%    9.26%    8.79%    5.00%    2.78%    2.19%    1.20%    0.43%    0.21%    0.11%    0.02%
         Socke:    0.62%    2.43%    3.34%    4.31%    9.11%   12.19%    9.95%   11.94%   14.28%    9.95%    6.99%    6.75%    4.28%    1.75%    1.15%    0.79%    0.17%

+ Show Spoiler [Group 3] +

Group 3

Nerchio
      Expected score: 2.77-1.23 (sets: 6.23-3.63)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 85.85%
      Most likely place: 1st (47.61%)

monchi
      Expected score: 1.97-2.03 (sets: 4.92-5.05)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 59.96%
      Most likely place: 3rd (21.84%)

TargA
      Expected score: 1.83-2.17 (sets: 4.70-5.26)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 54.73%
      Most likely place: 4th (22.68%)

TheLittleOne
      Expected score: 1.73-2.27 (sets: 4.52-5.43)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 50.12%
      Most likely place: 5th (26.07%)

DIMAGA
      Expected score: 1.70-2.30 (sets: 4.48-5.48)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 49.34%
      Most likely place: 5th (27.51%)

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +

Detailed placement probabilities

                     5th      4th      3rd      2nd      1st
       Nerchio:    4.89%    9.26%   14.52%   23.71%   47.61%
        DIMAGA:   27.51%   23.15%   20.71%   17.62%   11.00%
         TargA:   22.59%   22.68%   21.87%   19.47%   13.38%
  TheLittleOne:   26.07%   23.80%   21.05%   17.50%   11.58%
        monchi:   18.94%   21.10%   21.84%   21.69%   16.44%

Match score

                     0-4      1-3      2-2      3-1      4-0
       Nerchio:    0.90%    8.18%   27.11%   40.78%   23.03%
        DIMAGA:   10.54%   32.42%   36.26%   17.71%    3.07%
         TargA:    7.93%   29.59%   37.75%   20.77%    3.95%
  TheLittleOne:   10.00%   31.86%   36.72%   18.12%    3.30%
        monchi:    6.39%   25.80%   37.97%   24.40%    5.44%

Set score

                      -8       -7       -6       -5       -4       -3       -2       -1        0        1        2        3        4        5        6        7        8
       Nerchio:    0.03%    0.18%    0.32%    0.55%    1.52%    3.08%    3.55%    5.73%    9.75%    9.99%   10.17%   14.60%   13.79%    8.50%    8.12%    7.44%    2.68%
        DIMAGA:    0.77%    3.03%    3.87%    4.89%    9.51%   12.21%    9.99%   11.41%   13.44%    9.48%    6.89%    6.52%    4.36%    1.68%    1.10%    0.70%    0.14%
         TargA:    0.58%    2.10%    2.99%    3.87%    8.37%   11.18%    9.38%   11.60%   14.00%   10.46%    7.64%    7.82%    5.20%    2.19%    1.46%    0.92%    0.26%
  TheLittleOne:    0.78%    2.79%    3.68%    4.76%    9.13%   12.01%    9.87%   11.85%   13.76%    9.45%    6.86%    6.82%    4.22%    1.85%    1.23%    0.78%    0.16%
        monchi:    0.44%    1.57%    2.44%    3.34%    6.86%    9.57%    8.85%   11.41%   14.30%   10.76%    8.49%    9.09%    6.34%    2.82%    2.01%    1.40%    0.32%

+ Show Spoiler [Group 4] +

Group 4

HerO
      Expected score: 2.71-1.29 (sets: 6.13-3.72)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 85.45%
      Most likely place: 1st (40.98%)

fOrGG
      Expected score: 2.55-1.45 (sets: 5.87-4.01)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 81.71%
      Most likely place: 1st (33.49%)

Naniwa
      Expected score: 1.91-2.09 (sets: 4.82-5.12)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 58.88%
      Most likely place: 3rd (24.82%)

ThorZaIN
      Expected score: 1.55-2.45 (sets: 4.19-5.72)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 42.81%
      Most likely place: 5th (29.27%)

ret
      Expected score: 1.28-2.72 (sets: 3.69-6.15)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 31.15%
      Most likely place: 5th (42.08%)

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +

Detailed placement probabilities

                     5th      4th      3rd      2nd      1st
      ThorZaIN:   29.27%   27.91%   21.43%   13.99%    7.40%
         fOrGG:    6.21%   12.08%   19.78%   28.44%   33.49%
           ret:   42.08%   26.77%   17.05%    9.50%    4.59%
          HerO:    4.61%    9.94%   16.93%   27.54%   40.98%
        Naniwa:   17.82%   23.29%   24.82%   20.53%   13.53%

Match score

                     0-4      1-3      2-2      3-1      4-0
      ThorZaIN:   13.00%   36.55%   34.98%   13.61%    1.86%
         fOrGG:    1.36%   11.68%   33.05%   38.53%   15.39%
           ret:   20.90%   40.98%   28.73%    8.47%    0.92%
          HerO:    0.94%    8.65%   28.73%   41.37%   20.30%
        Naniwa:    6.46%   27.35%   39.12%   22.53%    4.54%

Set score

                      -8       -7       -6       -5       -4       -3       -2       -1        0        1        2        3        4        5        6        7        8
      ThorZaIN:    1.14%    3.93%    4.77%    5.85%   11.14%   13.43%   10.57%   11.75%   12.95%    8.66%    5.42%    5.08%    3.02%    1.15%    0.67%    0.39%    0.08%
         fOrGG:    0.06%    0.26%    0.51%    0.87%    2.46%    4.35%    4.77%    7.45%   12.45%   11.21%   10.66%   14.24%   12.32%    6.56%    5.57%    4.76%    1.49%
           ret:    2.29%    6.82%    7.36%    8.06%   13.77%   15.01%   10.17%   10.57%   10.35%    6.01%    3.68%    3.14%    1.64%    0.56%    0.37%    0.17%    0.03%
          HerO:    0.02%    0.16%    0.39%    0.61%    1.73%    3.19%    3.69%    6.16%   10.48%   10.34%   10.50%   15.11%   13.77%    7.87%    7.35%    6.48%    2.16%
        Naniwa:    0.45%    1.64%    2.40%    3.51%    7.48%   10.25%    9.16%   11.63%   14.61%   10.96%    8.02%    8.76%    5.62%    2.41%    1.68%    1.11%    0.30%

Kyhol

Canada2575 Posts

November 20 2012 14:19 GMT

#28

I love DH!

Koesader

Netherlands424 Posts

November 20 2012 14:23 GMT

#29

TaeJa, better fix those wrists!
Fighting!~

NeWeNiyaLord

Norway2474 Posts

November 20 2012 14:25 GMT

#30

So stacked lineup.. Hopefully I can watch this and it's in decent hours for a poor Norwegian

Tidus Mino

United Kingdom1108 Posts

November 20 2012 14:49 GMT

#31

On November 20 2012 21:23 saksy2 wrote:

Show nested quote +

Here's a few that have signed up:
(P)

Sage (likely not attending)
(T)

No love for SortOf or Miniraser?

Shellshock

United States97276 Posts

November 20 2012 15:06 GMT

#32

TaeJa should still win this even though he hasn't been as dominant as he was during the summer. he's still very good and probably the best player going

snorlax1

Singapore233 Posts

November 20 2012 15:09 GMT

#33

DreamHack is back

Bahajinbo

Germany488 Posts

November 20 2012 15:14 GMT

#34

monchi, go crush them! :D

lichter

1001 YEARS KESPAJAIL22272 Posts

November 20 2012 15:22 GMT

#35

On November 20 2012 22:11 Hall0wed wrote:
Should vote for Dimaga actually, he will win through the power of love.

I like this idea.

saksy2

Norway520 Posts

November 20 2012 15:30 GMT

#36

On November 20 2012 23:49 Tidus Mino wrote:

Show nested quote +

No love for SortOf or Miniraser?

Sorry I just looked at the signups on their website. Hard to catch everyone

. SortOf and Mini is obviously notable as well.

red4ce

United States7313 Posts

November 20 2012 15:48 GMT

#37

Come on fOrGG break the foreign Kong line D:

Gladiator6

Sweden7024 Posts

November 20 2012 15:49 GMT

#38

Awesome recap video by d.Apollo, check it out if you haven't and are curious on the groups!

HeeroFX

United States2704 Posts

November 20 2012 15:50 GMT

#39

Thorzain has done good at dreamhack events, but i feel like he doesn't practice too much. I don't think Stephano will win the tournament but he will do better than he did at wcs. I actually really like Naniwa and Taeja in this tournament. Naniwa, because he is a consistent korean killer and you could make an argurement for him as the best foreign player. Taeja we haven't seen in awhile so he may have some sick new builds to add in.

Zaranth

United States345 Posts

November 20 2012 15:56 GMT

#40

Wooooo! This will be the perfect thing to have on my TV as I prepare Thanksgiving food. :-)

Liquid FIGHTING!

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