[WCS] Global Finals Day 2 - Page 14

FuzzyJAM

Scotland9300 Posts

November 17 2012 20:30 GMT

#261

Can't wait for an all Protoss Korean semi-finals! The rage!

Rain has the best PvP and has the best shot at winning the whole thing for sure.

Incomplet

United Kingdom1419 Posts

November 17 2012 20:30 GMT

#262

On November 18 2012 05:22 NuclearJudas wrote:
Gut-feeling predictions:
[image loading]

im pretty sure 3rd/4th place is played out as the prize distribution is different (8k more for 3rd)

Fischbacher

Canada666 Posts

November 17 2012 20:32 GMT

#263

On November 18 2012 05:30 Incomplet wrote:

Show nested quote +

im pretty sure 3rd/4th place is played out as the prize distribution is different (8k more for 3rd)

3rd place is on the schedule on Blizzard's site.

MooMu

Canada615 Posts

November 17 2012 20:36 GMT

#264

$100,000 for first place is a crazy amount of money. Don't remember such compensation since NASL.

Fusilero

United Kingdom50293 Posts

November 17 2012 20:36 GMT

#265

On November 18 2012 05:30 Incomplet wrote:

Show nested quote +

im pretty sure 3rd/4th place is played out as the prize distribution is different (8k more for 3rd)

Then that prediction is all wrong, assuming sen won't finish 3rd.

Derez

Netherlands6068 Posts

November 17 2012 20:44 GMT

#266

On November 18 2012 05:36 MooMu wrote:
$100,000 for first place is a crazy amount of money. Don't remember such compensation since NASL.

I think the NASL prizepool was 100k total for season one, 50k for the first place, and after the first season the prizepool actually started decreasing for 1st place.

Don't think we've ever had a 100k prize.

Schelim

Austria11528 Posts

November 17 2012 20:44 GMT

#267

finals Idra vs Scarlett

all of NA has a simultaneous orgasm

MooMu

Canada615 Posts

November 17 2012 20:47 GMT

#268

On November 18 2012 05:44 Derez wrote:

Show nested quote +

You're right.

The monetary award is insane for this competition. Makes sense that it comes from the pockets of Blizzard, though.

Ksquared

United States1748 Posts

November 17 2012 20:48 GMT

#269

That poll on the front page is great

Fusilero

United Kingdom50293 Posts

November 17 2012 20:48 GMT

#270

On November 18 2012 05:44 Derez wrote:

Show nested quote +

What was the super tournament I thought it had something around that.

MooMu

Canada615 Posts

November 17 2012 20:50 GMT

#271

On November 18 2012 05:48 Fusilero wrote:

Show nested quote +

What was the super tournament I thought it had something around that.

First place prize was $93 000; so very comparable.

TheBB

Switzerland5133 Posts

November 17 2012 20:50 GMT

#272

I enhanced my useless crap generator, so here's more useless crap for you.

Don't expect me to update as the brackets proceed, since I will be (a) asleep and (b) at a barcraft.

Most likely winners:
      Creator: 28.63%
      By.Rain: 21.80%
      Parting: 13.38%
      Curious: 10.73%
      HerO: 8.94%
      Scarlett: 4.69%
      Sen: 2.82%
      LucifroN: 2.72%
      TITAN: 2.25%
      Vortix: 1.78%
      LoWeLy: 0.97%
      Suppy: 0.51%
      BabyKnight: 0.35%
      IdrA: 0.21%
      dKilleR: 0.19%
      Illusion: 0.04%

Life expectancy:
      Creator: 2.36 rounds (lose in the semifinals)
      By.Rain: 2.12 rounds (lose in the semifinals)
      Parting: 1.52 rounds (lose in the semifinals)
      HerO: 1.43 rounds (lose in the quarterfinals)
      Curious: 1.35 rounds (lose in the quarterfinals)
      TITAN: 0.97 rounds (lose in the quarterfinals)
      Scarlett: 0.84 rounds (lose in the quarterfinals)
      LucifroN: 0.79 rounds (lose in the quarterfinals)
      LoWeLy: 0.73 rounds (lose in the quarterfinals)
      Sen: 0.65 rounds (lose in the quarterfinals)
      Vortix: 0.65 rounds (lose in the quarterfinals)
      Suppy: 0.58 rounds (lose in the quarterfinals)
      dKilleR: 0.38 rounds (lose in the round of 16)
      BabyKnight: 0.33 rounds (lose in the round of 16)
      IdrA: 0.21 rounds (lose in the round of 16)
      Illusion: 0.10 rounds (lose in the round of 16)

Detailed placement probabilities

                  Top 16    Top 8    Top 4    Top 2      Win
       Parting:   38.91%   11.72%   21.56%   14.43%   13.38%
      Scarlett:   61.09%   11.35%   15.06%    7.80%    4.69%
         Suppy:   54.62%   35.90%    7.00%    1.97%    0.51%
        LoWeLy:   45.38%   41.03%    9.52%    3.10%    0.97%
           Sen:   62.94%   19.52%    9.48%    5.24%    2.82%
       Curious:   37.06%   24.12%   16.12%   11.97%   10.73%
    BabyKnight:   74.97%   19.39%    3.96%    1.33%    0.35%
          HerO:   25.03%   36.97%   17.30%   11.75%    8.94%
          IdrA:   85.30%    9.26%    4.48%    0.75%    0.21%
       By.Rain:   14.70%   16.49%   32.56%   14.45%   21.80%
         TITAN:   32.09%   47.35%   14.37%    3.94%    2.25%
       dKilleR:   67.91%   26.90%    4.31%    0.70%    0.19%
      LucifroN:   46.40%   37.85%    9.27%    3.77%    2.72%
        Vortix:   53.60%   34.21%    7.56%    2.85%    1.78%
       Creator:    8.05%   21.30%   26.27%   15.75%   28.63%
      Illusion:   91.95%    6.64%    1.19%    0.19%    0.04%

Most likely to be eliminated by...

       Parting:    Scarlett (38.91%)     Curious ( 9.41%)        HerO ( 8.42%)
      Scarlett:     Parting (61.09%)      LoWeLy ( 6.64%)     Curious ( 6.44%)
         Suppy:      LoWeLy (54.62%)     Parting (22.95%)    Scarlett (12.95%)
        LoWeLy:       Suppy (45.38%)     Parting (26.43%)    Scarlett (14.61%)
           Sen:     Curious (62.94%)        HerO (16.75%)     Parting ( 5.52%)
       Curious:         Sen (37.06%)        HerO (21.25%)     Parting ( 9.76%)
    BabyKnight:        HerO (74.97%)     Curious (12.89%)         Sen ( 6.51%)
          HerO:     Curious (25.94%)  BabyKnight (25.03%)         Sen (11.03%)
          IdrA:     By.Rain (85.30%)       TITAN ( 6.95%)     Creator ( 3.37%)
       By.Rain:     Creator (26.60%)        IdrA (14.70%)       TITAN (13.60%)
         TITAN:     By.Rain (44.33%)     dKilleR (32.09%)     Creator (11.17%)
       dKilleR:       TITAN (67.91%)     By.Rain (24.49%)     Creator ( 3.24%)
      LucifroN:      Vortix (46.40%)     Creator (37.15%)     By.Rain ( 7.38%)
        Vortix:    LucifroN (53.60%)     Creator (33.50%)     By.Rain ( 5.98%)
       Creator:     By.Rain (22.01%)    LucifroN (12.14%)      Vortix ( 9.16%)
      Illusion:     Creator (91.95%)    LucifroN ( 3.61%)      Vortix ( 3.03%)

Knocknock

United Kingdom4 Posts

November 17 2012 20:51 GMT

#273

In terms of commentators, i REALLY hope that Artosis & Tasteless cast the finals.

When I went through all the VODs, there was just a different level of professionalism, casting, and the whole atmosphere from these two, compared to everyone else ( no puns intended ).

I really hope they are the ones who cast the most of the finals, semi's etc.

LawnMower

Sweden557 Posts

November 17 2012 20:53 GMT

#274

On November 18 2012 05:50 TheBB wrote:
I enhanced my useless crap generator, so here's more useless crap for you.

Most likely winners:
      Creator: 28.63%
      By.Rain: 21.80%
      Parting: 13.38%
      Curious: 10.73%
      HerO: 8.94%
      Scarlett: 4.69%
      Sen: 2.82%
      LucifroN: 2.72%
      TITAN: 2.25%
      Vortix: 1.78%
      LoWeLy: 0.97%
      Suppy: 0.51%
      BabyKnight: 0.35%
      IdrA: 0.21%
      dKilleR: 0.19%
      Illusion: 0.04%

Life expectancy:
      Creator: 2.36 rounds (lose in the semifinals)
      By.Rain: 2.12 rounds (lose in the semifinals)
      Parting: 1.52 rounds (lose in the semifinals)
      HerO: 1.43 rounds (lose in the quarterfinals)
      Curious: 1.35 rounds (lose in the quarterfinals)
      TITAN: 0.97 rounds (lose in the quarterfinals)
      Scarlett: 0.84 rounds (lose in the quarterfinals)
      LucifroN: 0.79 rounds (lose in the quarterfinals)
      LoWeLy: 0.73 rounds (lose in the quarterfinals)
      Sen: 0.65 rounds (lose in the quarterfinals)
      Vortix: 0.65 rounds (lose in the quarterfinals)
      Suppy: 0.58 rounds (lose in the quarterfinals)
      dKilleR: 0.38 rounds (lose in the round of 16)
      BabyKnight: 0.33 rounds (lose in the round of 16)
      IdrA: 0.21 rounds (lose in the round of 16)
      Illusion: 0.10 rounds (lose in the round of 16)

Detailed placement probabilities

                  Top 16    Top 8    Top 4    Top 2      Win
       Parting:   38.91%   11.72%   21.56%   14.43%   13.38%
      Scarlett:   61.09%   11.35%   15.06%    7.80%    4.69%
         Suppy:   54.62%   35.90%    7.00%    1.97%    0.51%
        LoWeLy:   45.38%   41.03%    9.52%    3.10%    0.97%
           Sen:   62.94%   19.52%    9.48%    5.24%    2.82%
       Curious:   37.06%   24.12%   16.12%   11.97%   10.73%
    BabyKnight:   74.97%   19.39%    3.96%    1.33%    0.35%
          HerO:   25.03%   36.97%   17.30%   11.75%    8.94%
          IdrA:   85.30%    9.26%    4.48%    0.75%    0.21%
       By.Rain:   14.70%   16.49%   32.56%   14.45%   21.80%
         TITAN:   32.09%   47.35%   14.37%    3.94%    2.25%
       dKilleR:   67.91%   26.90%    4.31%    0.70%    0.19%
      LucifroN:   46.40%   37.85%    9.27%    3.77%    2.72%
        Vortix:   53.60%   34.21%    7.56%    2.85%    1.78%
       Creator:    8.05%   21.30%   26.27%   15.75%   28.63%
      Illusion:   91.95%    6.64%    1.19%    0.19%    0.04%

Most likely to be eliminated by...

       Parting:  Scarlett (38.91%)   Curious (9.41%)       HerO (8.42%)
      Scarlett:  Parting (61.09%)    LoWeLy (6.64%)        Curious (6.44%)
         Suppy:  LoWeLy (54.62%)     Parting (22.95%)      Scarlett (12.95%)
        LoWeLy:  Suppy (45.38%)      Parting (26.43%)      Scarlett (14.61%)
           Sen:  Curious (62.94%)    HerO (16.75%)         Parting (5.52%)
       Curious:  Sen (37.06%)        HerO (21.25%)         Parting (9.76%)
    BabyKnight:  HerO (74.97%)       Curious (12.89%)      Sen (6.51%)
          HerO:  Curious (25.94%)    BabyKnight (25.03%)   Sen (11.03%)
          IdrA:  By.Rain (85.30%)    TITAN (6.95%)         Creator (3.37%)
       By.Rain:  Creator (26.60%)    IdrA (14.70%)         TITAN (13.60%)
         TITAN:  By.Rain (44.33%)    dKilleR (32.09%)      Creator (11.17%)
       dKilleR:  TITAN (67.91%)      By.Rain (24.49%)      Creator (3.24%)
      LucifroN:  Vortix (46.40%)     Creator (37.15%)      By.Rain (7.38%)
        Vortix:  LucifroN (53.60%)   Creator (33.50%)      By.Rain (5.98%)
       Creator:  By.Rain (22.01%)    LucifroN (12.14%)     Vortix (9.16%)
      Illusion:  Creator (91.95%)    LucifroN (3.61%)      Vortix (3.03%)

Awesome.

Monochromatic

United States998 Posts

November 17 2012 20:53 GMT

#275

Detailed placement probabilities

                  Top 16    Top 8    Top 4    Top 2      Win
       Parting:   38.91%   11.72%   21.56%   14.43%   13.38%
      Scarlett:   61.09%   11.35%   15.06%    7.80%    4.69%
         Suppy:   54.62%   35.90%    7.00%    1.97%    0.51%
        LoWeLy:   45.38%   41.03%    9.52%    3.10%    0.97%
           Sen:   62.94%   19.52%    9.48%    5.24%    2.82%
       Curious:   37.06%   24.12%   16.12%   11.97%   10.73%
    BabyKnight:   74.97%   19.39%    3.96%    1.33%    0.35%
          HerO:   25.03%   36.97%   17.30%   11.75%    8.94%
          IdrA:   85.30%    9.26%    4.48%    0.75%    0.21%
       By.Rain:   14.70%   16.49%   32.56%   14.45%   21.80%
         TITAN:   32.09%   47.35%   14.37%    3.94%    2.25%
       dKilleR:   67.91%   26.90%    4.31%    0.70%    0.19%
      LucifroN:   46.40%   37.85%    9.27%    3.77%    2.72%
        Vortix:   53.60%   34.21%    7.56%    2.85%    1.78%
       Creator:    8.05%   21.30%   26.27%   15.75%   28.63%
      Illusion:   91.95%    6.64%    1.19%    0.19%    0.04%

Most likely to be eliminated by...

       Parting:  Scarlett (38.91%)   Curious (9.41%)       HerO (8.42%)
      Scarlett:  Parting (61.09%)    LoWeLy (6.64%)        Curious (6.44%)
         Suppy:  LoWeLy (54.62%)     Parting (22.95%)      Scarlett (12.95%)
        LoWeLy:  Suppy (45.38%)      Parting (26.43%)      Scarlett (14.61%)
           Sen:  Curious (62.94%)    HerO (16.75%)         Parting (5.52%)
       Curious:  Sen (37.06%)        HerO (21.25%)         Parting (9.76%)
    BabyKnight:  HerO (74.97%)       Curious (12.89%)      Sen (6.51%)
          HerO:  Curious (25.94%)    BabyKnight (25.03%)   Sen (11.03%)
          IdrA:  By.Rain (85.30%)    TITAN (6.95%)         Creator (3.37%)
       By.Rain:  Creator (26.60%)    IdrA (14.70%)         TITAN (13.60%)
         TITAN:  By.Rain (44.33%)    dKilleR (32.09%)      Creator (11.17%)
       dKilleR:  TITAN (67.91%)      By.Rain (24.49%)      Creator (3.24%)
      LucifroN:  Vortix (46.40%)     Creator (37.15%)      By.Rain (7.38%)
        Vortix:  LucifroN (53.60%)   Creator (33.50%)      By.Rain (5.98%)
       Creator:  By.Rain (22.01%)    LucifroN (12.14%)     Vortix (9.16%)
      Illusion:  Creator (91.95%)    LucifroN (3.61%)      Vortix (3.03%)

Does this go by TLPD winrates?

Hoonose

United States132 Posts

November 17 2012 20:54 GMT

#276

On November 18 2012 05:50 TheBB wrote:
I enhanced my useless crap generator, so here's more useless crap for you.
*snip*

Could I ask what your methodology for predictions is?

EDIT: Oh I see, your blog has details (http://www.teamliquid.net/blogs/viewblog.php?id=380850)

TheBB

Switzerland5133 Posts

November 17 2012 20:57 GMT

#277

On November 18 2012 05:53 Monochromatic wrote:

Show nested quote +

Detailed placement probabilities

                  Top 16    Top 8    Top 4    Top 2      Win
       Parting:   38.91%   11.72%   21.56%   14.43%   13.38%
      Scarlett:   61.09%   11.35%   15.06%    7.80%    4.69%
         Suppy:   54.62%   35.90%    7.00%    1.97%    0.51%
        LoWeLy:   45.38%   41.03%    9.52%    3.10%    0.97%
           Sen:   62.94%   19.52%    9.48%    5.24%    2.82%
       Curious:   37.06%   24.12%   16.12%   11.97%   10.73%
    BabyKnight:   74.97%   19.39%    3.96%    1.33%    0.35%
          HerO:   25.03%   36.97%   17.30%   11.75%    8.94%
          IdrA:   85.30%    9.26%    4.48%    0.75%    0.21%
       By.Rain:   14.70%   16.49%   32.56%   14.45%   21.80%
         TITAN:   32.09%   47.35%   14.37%    3.94%    2.25%
       dKilleR:   67.91%   26.90%    4.31%    0.70%    0.19%
      LucifroN:   46.40%   37.85%    9.27%    3.77%    2.72%
        Vortix:   53.60%   34.21%    7.56%    2.85%    1.78%
       Creator:    8.05%   21.30%   26.27%   15.75%   28.63%
      Illusion:   91.95%    6.64%    1.19%    0.19%    0.04%

Most likely to be eliminated by...

       Parting:  Scarlett (38.91%)   Curious (9.41%)       HerO (8.42%)
      Scarlett:  Parting (61.09%)    LoWeLy (6.64%)        Curious (6.44%)
         Suppy:  LoWeLy (54.62%)     Parting (22.95%)      Scarlett (12.95%)
        LoWeLy:  Suppy (45.38%)      Parting (26.43%)      Scarlett (14.61%)
           Sen:  Curious (62.94%)    HerO (16.75%)         Parting (5.52%)
       Curious:  Sen (37.06%)        HerO (21.25%)         Parting (9.76%)
    BabyKnight:  HerO (74.97%)       Curious (12.89%)      Sen (6.51%)
          HerO:  Curious (25.94%)    BabyKnight (25.03%)   Sen (11.03%)
          IdrA:  By.Rain (85.30%)    TITAN (6.95%)         Creator (3.37%)
       By.Rain:  Creator (26.60%)    IdrA (14.70%)         TITAN (13.60%)
         TITAN:  By.Rain (44.33%)    dKilleR (32.09%)      Creator (11.17%)
       dKilleR:  TITAN (67.91%)      By.Rain (24.49%)      Creator (3.24%)
      LucifroN:  Vortix (46.40%)     Creator (37.15%)      By.Rain (7.38%)
        Vortix:  LucifroN (53.60%)   Creator (33.50%)      By.Rain (5.98%)
       Creator:  By.Rain (22.01%)    LucifroN (12.14%)     Vortix (9.16%)
      Illusion:  Creator (91.95%)    LucifroN (3.61%)      Vortix (3.03%)

Does this go by TLPD winrates?

No, it's more sophisticated than that

. I use the SC2Charts.net ratings.

TheBB

Switzerland5133 Posts

November 17 2012 20:58 GMT

#278

On November 18 2012 05:54 Hoonose wrote:

Show nested quote +

Could I ask what your methodology for predictions is?

EDIT: Oh I see, your blog has details (http://www.teamliquid.net/blogs/viewblog.php?id=380850)

Yeah, that post is a bit outdated now that I've switched to a better rating system, but aside from that it's pretty comprehensive.

FrostedMiniWheats

United States30730 Posts

November 17 2012 21:09 GMT

#279

hrrmmm Sen vs Curious might be interesting. I haven't seen Sen play in ages, might be able to make Curious sweat a little. Probably not though, Curious has one of the best ZvZ in Korea. Though this is the ro16....might be time for Curious to get off, it's his stop :p

Creator or Rain will probably win it all. Would be sick if Curious won to finally get something good to distinguish himself, or as always a foreigner (fat chance with Stephano gone).

bobohobo

Canada69 Posts

November 17 2012 21:10 GMT

#280

Sen's ZvZ is great and Curious isn't that unbeatable, so I think Sen will beat Curious and move on to the next round.

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