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On July 24 2011 09:32 moopie wrote:
Bisu won't play Flash, neither coach park nor oov want that. My guess is that Bisu will be sent out on Alternative to take out a zerg and BeSt will come out on La Mancha. Bisu is almost a guarenteed win vs a zerg, but his odds vs Stats or Flash aren't good, so it would be dumb for SKT to do that.
Bisu and Best are the only 2 in SKT1 with a reasonable chance of taking down Flash. Obviously for the normal matches (sets 1-6) T1 wants to send Best v Flash. In the ace match they pretty much HAVE to send Bisu, just in case KT decides to swerve and send somebody else. If Fantasy were in the kind of form he had a year ago (when he went 2-3 v Flash in Bigfile in what was probably the best TvT series ever played) things would be different.
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On July 24 2011 18:25 Ozarugold wrote:
Wait...is Hydra going to be above Jaedong is Kespa ranking now?
I wouldn't imagine so. He's only 2-2 so far this month, while JD is 2-1, and already has a lead in points. They both have an OSL game left, which could certainly play a part, but it should still be likely that JD retains his spot above him
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That's not how Kespa rank works. Jaedong is losing more points per month because of all of his great finishes from last year that are decaying, while Hydra's recent msl win + semifinals berth and adequate proleague appearances are less decayed and will push him over. I'm pretty sure Hydra is a shoe in to pass jaedong up right now.
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Perfective cnbc mention IMO. 4 wins in 4 appearances, high pressure situations, and 3 times acting as the closer for KT. What a boss.
Doothegee mentioned that both Zero and Hydra will overtake JD. Historic month for the zerg race!
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United States10328 Posts
On July 24 2011 20:14 TwoToneTerran wrote:
That's not how Kespa rank works. Jaedong is losing more points per month because of all of his great finishes from last year that are decaying, while Hydra's recent msl win + semifinals berth and adequate proleague appearances are less decayed and will push him over. I'm pretty sure Hydra is a shoe in to pass jaedong up right now.
Wait but didn't Jaedong make the last two MSL semifinals as well...? Still, I wouldn't be altogether tooooo surprised to see JD passed on kespa rank. Only temporarily!
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Yeah but it depends on the results from 12 months ago. Those 2 semifinals were already factored into JD's ranking, but if a significant result from 12 months ago drops off the rank then JD loses those points.
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I don't know exactly how Kespa does it, but it seems to me it would work a lot better if they calculated it such that the devaluation of points was much more gradual—that is, points shouldn't just suddenly DROP off after 12 months, they should get a little bit less valuable the older the games get.
I like the idea of a long-term rank, as opposed to something so fickle where a guy can have a bad month or two and suddenly fall off the face of the earth (like power rank), but I bet Kespa rank could be a lot better than it is.
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On July 25 2011 13:26 SimonB wrote:
I don't know exactly how Kespa does it, but it seems to me it would work a lot better if they calculated it such that the devaluation of points was much more gradual—that is, points shouldn't just suddenly DROP off after 12 months, they should get a little bit less valuable the older the games get.
I like the idea of a long-term rank, as opposed to something so fickle where a guy can have a bad month or two and suddenly fall off the face of the earth (like power rank), but I bet Kespa rank could be a lot better than it is.
Im positive its a 10% gradual decrease every month starting from the 3rd month after said achievement yes?
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On July 25 2011 13:26 SimonB wrote:
I don't know exactly how Kespa does it, but it seems to me it would work a lot better if they calculated it such that the devaluation of points was much more gradual—that is, points shouldn't just suddenly DROP off after 12 months, they should get a little bit less valuable the older the games get.
They do...
http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft/KeSPA_Ranking#Decaying_of_Points_Through_Time
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On July 22 2011 22:04 TwoToneTerran wrote:Hoejja: King of ZvT because he beat Sea on La Mancha!
I feel as though that was directed at me o_O
And it's not Hoejjas / Soo's fault for not having more vT's (yadda yadda, wont have this discussion now, since I get a weird taste in my mouth for what I am about to do, praise a T1 player)
Seriously though, Soo is 18-4 since april, which is really damn sick. Lets sink that in for a moment,
and compare this soo, to this soo
I said it before, I will say it again; with confidence (a small winning streak, for example?) comes consistency. Atleast undtil they're not as confident anymore and start fucking themselves over.
Though most of his opponents has been protoss, he has more vs terran games than vs zerg, (though 3 of his losses were against terrans).
Think about it, this seems reminiscent to Shine's 14 game winning streak last year where he played good but fell of the radar again after losing to mind in the ro16
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Honestly I have NOOOOOO problem with Hoejja rising up to be number 1 Zerg. Well he does have a distinctive look that reminds me of the Zerg that once rose up to number 1 but decide to give it all away.
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On July 25 2011 21:20 Xiphos wrote:
Honestly I have NOOOOOO problem with Hoejja rising up to be number 1 Zerg. Well he does have a distinctive look that reminds me of the Zerg that once rose up to number 1 but decide to give it all away.
No way in hell that Hoejja overtakes Jaedong, Zero and Hydra (as much as I would love himbeing the best zerg, I dont see it happening). His ZvZ is nowhere near as good as any of those
Would be sweet to have a lefthanded player as the best zerg though oo
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On July 25 2011 21:20 Xiphos wrote:
Honestly I have NOOOOOO problem with Hoejja rising up to be number 1 Zerg. Well he does have a distinctive look that reminds me of the Zerg that once rose up to number 1 but decide to give it all away.
I have only one problem: It is not GONNA happen!
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Somehow doubt the coaching staff on SKT will want any of the matchups that people here say will determine the next PR.
Flash <> Bisu
Of course not
Flash <> Fantasy
Risky
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On July 24 2011 17:17 Elroi wrote:
^ Just watch his last game, he played badly imo. I don't think you can give him much credit for building a 9-pool.
He didn't really play badly to my view. He just played safely and compounded his advantage.
Look at it this way. At the moment he killed the enemy hatch, he wasn't strong enough to attack-move-win. By the end of the game, he was strong enough to attack-move-win. In between, he had complete map control and never permitted any kind of comeback whatsoever. He simply increased his advantage over time until he won. That's good strategy.
I agree that his last game wasn't anything special, but I don't find fault with someone who decides to take the 100% sure path to victory.
Anyway... Roo will probably be fielded against SKT and we can see how he does then.
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My only problem with this is we (SKT) are a Protoss-heavy team..
And the current outlook of PvZ makes me sad 
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On July 26 2011 19:45 ffreakk wrote:My only problem with this is we (SKT) are a Protoss-heavy team.. And the current outlook of PvZ makes me sad
Actually, SKT Zergs nearly as many wins as SKT Tosses this season, and mainly against non-P opponents too.
If I was the KT coach I would probably be the one worried about PvZ, as once Flash is set against Bisu (which is the best way to neutralize Bisu) then there is no one that can deal with SKT Zergs on my entire team, given the current state of PvZ.
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On July 26 2011 17:09 _romantic wrote:
Somehow doubt the coaching staff on SKT will want any of the matchups that people here say will determine the next PR.
Flash <> Bisu
Of course not
Flash <> Fantasy
Risky
We're talking about the ACE MATCH scenario. It's 95% locked that KT sends Flash. The remaining 5% is a swerve choice -- the probability that either Flash's wrist is causing too much problem or that the KT coach decides to take a gamble on the hypothesis that T1 will taylor build orders specifically to take down Flash.
So who does T1 send?
You say not Bisu. Right now he is probably the best PvTer in the world, he is the best PvZ BY FAR and he is #1 ranked in PvP.
Fantasy I agree is risky, though Fantasy's post season record in PL is tremendous. The thing is that Fanta is coming out of a slump. A year ago Fanta would have been the best pick for this scenario (consider his bo5 with Flash in Bigfile), but right now I wouldn't risk sending him against the strongest TvTer ever.
Best is a good choice if you assume that Flash is the ONLY possible candidate for ace, but if KT does swerve you have to pray to god that they send Stats and not one of their Zergs -- even then Stats should be in the advantage.
Who else could T1 send? Soo? S2? Hyuk? Against Flash those are tremendous gambles since none of them are known for strong vT play. T1 has enough depth on their roster that choosing to swerve like that would be crazy.
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On July 26 2011 20:59 Mortality wrote:Show nested quote +On July 26 2011 17:09 _romantic wrote:
Somehow doubt the coaching staff on SKT will want any of the matchups that people here say will determine the next PR.
Flash <> Bisu
Of course not
Flash <> Fantasy
Risky We're talking about the ACE MATCH scenario. It's 95% locked that KT sends Flash. The remaining 5% is a swerve choice -- the probability that either Flash's wrist is causing too much problem or that the KT coach decides to take a gamble on the hypothesis that T1 will taylor build orders specifically to take down Flash. So who does T1 send? You say not Bisu. Right now he is probably the best PvTer in the world, he is the best PvZ BY FAR and he is #1 ranked in PvP. Fantasy I agree is risky, though Fantasy's post season record in PL is tremendous. The thing is that Fanta is coming out of a slump. A year ago Fanta would have been the best pick for this scenario (consider his bo5 with Flash in Bigfile), but right now I wouldn't risk sending him against the strongest TvTer ever. Best is a good choice if you assume that Flash is the ONLY possible candidate for ace, but if KT does swerve you have to pray to god that they send Stats and not one of their Zergs -- even then Stats should be in the advantage. Who else could T1 send? Soo? S2? Hyuk? Against Flash those are tremendous gambles since none of them are known for strong vT play. T1 has enough depth on their roster that choosing to swerve like that would be crazy.
I agree. Also, one has to bear in mind that thinking about builds and snipes on paper overlooks the fact that pressure is a big issue in deciding who to send out. I'm pretty sure that the PL Grand Finals is the most nerve-wracking possible setting for a progamer. The pressure must be huge. To my mind, a coach needs to consider who his most experienced and mentally tough player is, and when that player is also his most skilled, the decision is practically made already.
Flash is really the only choice for KT. Remember that he can create "snipe" builds too.
Bisu and Fantasy are really the only choices for SKT, and I think Bisu is stronger.
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I really cant see KT fielding anyone other than Flash.
Any of their swerves seems to fail miserably vs SKT's most likely Ace choice (Bisu), minus Stats, who has performed pretty well vs Bisu historically. Bisu seemed to have rediscovered some of his vP form towards the end of the season though, so i dont think Stats has better chance than Flash either. Not to mention Stats will have a tough time dealing with Fantasy, the second Ace.
On the other hand, Flash' vT form recently has been too good (he threw away the game vs Leta, but i dont see him doing that again anytime soon.. Anw he really should have won) for me to trust Fantasy to get the job done, barring a Divine snipe build created by Oov, forged by the spirit of BoxeR, and drilled into Fantasy's soul during their weeks of resting/training.
So its Bisu for me, i trust him more than BeSt when it matters  Of course half of the reason is because im a fanboy.
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EPT
