*Actually Season Five

The Up/Down matches begin tonight with nary a break, deciding who will receive the final ten Code S spots into Season Five. While Code S is the highest standard any SC2 progamer can aspire to, there's a little extra on the line this season. With the semi-finals and above being held at IPL5 in Las Vegas, there's a valuable opportunity to travel to America and get recruited by a foreign team get cheered on by an adoring international audience as well. As usual, there's always a good bit of luck involved in these Up/Down matches, and all the players will want to aim for advancement in first place so they won't have to rely on other players to get them through in a tie-break.

Without further ado, here's our preview of Group A.


6. ST_Hack

The situation: Code A has been a fairly stable environment for Hack. He has gone out in the second or third round three seasons in a row, narrowly missing out on Code S in the Up/Down groups each time. His skill level has stayed remarkably constant, regularly beating players who are definitely Code A, and losing to players who are definitely Code S. With the quality of the player pool in Korea rising, merely staying in place is not a positive thing, which is why we've placed Hack in this position. Based on current play and history, it is hard to call Hack a favorite over any of his opponents, and he might be an underdog versus each and every single one.

The optimistic prediction: Where he might usually fall to better players, Hack is not averse to throwing in some good cheese. Throw that in with a rather fortunate pairing against JYP as his Protoss opponent, the fact that MMA still remains a bit of a question mark, and Hyun’s propensity to self-implode when a Code S spot is on the line, and you could say Hack has an outside chance.

The worst case scenario: While it is doubtful that that Hack's reputation would take a big blow if he failed to make it through this group, losing all five games would look pretty bad. While there's a small chance at advancement for Hack, there's also a chance that things will all go horribly wrong. The best way to avoid such a fate might be to cheese as much as possible. Five 11/11's in five matches? Also in play.


5. BBoongBBoongPrime

The situation: While Hack’s position is stable but rather new, B4 has a deep history is an in-betweener. He is clearly one of the most deserving occupants of the purgatory (Code A) in Korean StarCraft. This time around he even decided to extend his stay through the Up and Downs. One supposes it is always nice when tenants want to stay longer.

B4 made one visit to Code S, but was summarily banished back for not quite being good enough to defeat Genius and Seed. Not only was that a rough beat, it was also symptomatic of BBoong’s main obstacle to becoming a premier player; his inability to win against Protoss. His ZvZ was made famous by defeating Nestea in WCG and the GomTV Team Ace Invitational, and has been above average since. B4's ZvT is definitely his best matchup and apart from a rather bizarre loss to dreamertt recently, remains a real force.

The optimistic prediction: One ZvZ, one ZvP (A very personalized Hell) but three ZvTs? Well that is certainly fortunate. To be fair, the three Terran opponents are dangerous, but Hack is eminently beatable, aLive is inconstant versus Zerg and MMA is still a bit of an unknown factor. Hyun is probably a real obstacle and might prove too much to overcome and JYP is a bad match for B4, but between the ZvZ mechanic (coin flip Hell squared) and brood lord/corruptor/infestor (Heaven and Hell) he might get something out of it.

The worst case scenario: The group‘s racial makeup might be a good fit for B4, but he needs to play at or above his skill level to make it. Seeing that Purgatory is a place he resides in mostly because he has consistently fail to do so in the past does not make this writer particularly hopeful.


4. EG.JYP.RC

The situation: JYP tasted some success in the previous season, making it through his first group stage in Code S. The follow-up was a return to the JYP of JYPvT fame, losing straight matches to Mvp, MarineKing and Maru to end up in the Up and Downs. Of course, in between those rather crushing losses, he also defeated Curious, so at least he also got to reinforce the ‘JYP is good against Zerg’ stereotype. He is yet another player that looks like he has the skills to be Code S if not for one glaring flaw. He will be delighted to see two Zerg in the group. The question is whether that will make up for the agony of seeing three Terrans.

The optimistic prediction: This is a fantastic opportunity for JYP to show that his defeats to Mvp and MKP were more a reflection of their prodigious skill than a lack of his own. aLive will be very difficult, but MMA and Hack are players that a JYP past his mental block can more than contend with. With two Zerg, one which he should beat and one prone to failing in these situations, JYP should be going straight for that 4-1 score and another season of Code S.

The worst case scenario: The group is not a happy one for JYP. As much as I love saying that his PvT is much better than his stats would indicate, his PvT is still not solid. On the other hand, if his PvZ comes up against a Hyun that plays up to his peak ability, purgatory will beget purgatory for the EG player.


3. MMA

The situation: Oh MMA. We still do not know whether you are still a top Terran. A large amount of light has been shone on the reasons for his demise, but they do not actually reveal anything substantial about his potential to climb back up. The last player thrust headfirst into drama, Fnatic's aLive (also in this group), found a way to brush it aside and have one his best Code S runs. It remains to be seen if MMA can do the same. Losing to Mvp and Taeja in Code S could be passed off as a result of being put in an impossible group, but losing to Sirius in the Code A Ro24 was a testament to MMA not being the player he once was.

The optimistic prediction: With the cat out of the bag on what was going on with SlayerS and with getting to look forward to brighter things, MMA will finally get back to his peak. He does not need to be 100% to make it out of this group, and the match-ups it line up rather nicely with his strengths. An MMA that is mentally in a better situation than before can definitely make it out. An MMA with confidence and is back to having all his focus on SC2 as a game will be a favorite.

(With a transfer to EG not looking unlikely, it is also possible that MMA will proceed to confirm the EG Blessing (trademark pending), where a signed player wins his first tournament after making the switch.)

The worst case scenario: His contractual situation is still not resolved. The SlayerS situation is still quite relevant in Korea, and popular opinion is on Jessica's side. With these two factors, MMA is likely to have yet another episode of showing signs of getting back to his best, but falling short in the end.


2. FnaticRC aLive

The situation: aLive is someone you expect to see in Code S. It is tricky to say whether he has declined since winning IPL4 and making playoffs in Code S or whether it is variance, bad luck or something completely different. What is easy to say is that he has had some uncharacteristic lows after his period of Code S group stage dominance. However, there are positive signs coming from one of the more consistent but not quite top players in the world; beating by.hero and MC in Code A showed that he still has game, and no real weaknesses compared to some of the other players in this group. Being a nondescript, 'good' player is a benefit in this case.

The optimistic prediction: aLive is more than good enough to win this group. Whereas it is difficult to predict what kind of day his main opposition will have, it is easy to predict aLive to have an aLive day. If he manages to avoid Hyun and MMA at their very best, aLive will be back in Code S for season five.

The worst case scenario: We may discover that aLive in fact showed some of his true self when he was defeated by Miya in WCS Korea. Not that Miya is necessarily bad, but the way aLive was eliminated makes losses against the Zerg in the group quite likely. If so, he needs to defeat all three other opponents and get lucky with tiebreakers (Hell is other people). As solid as aLive is, good luck has not been a concept normally associated with the Fnatic ace.


1. TSL_HyuN

The situation: Hyun is a premier Korean Zerg. He has won an astounding ten IPL Fight Club matches in a row, most of them with seemingly utter ease. He dominates just about every online cup and he has a peak skill level outstripping that of most Code S players. He is the uncrowned king of the greatest Zerg think tank (Heaven, Zerg version, is leading the hive mind) in the world. However, he also is starting to build a reputation as a choker when it comes to actually making it to Code S. Based on every other metric, he should be there, but you have to walk the walk as it were (Hell is not having online tournaments or being battle.net famous apply). He has had two seasons of looking like a lock for making it through, only to bring disappoint to his fans. This group will very much be a chance to see if it he has some kind of mental flaw, or whether third time is the charm.

The optimistic prediction: Pure class cannot be denied. It has merely been delayed twice. There is not a single player in this group that would currently be favored in a best of X series with Hyun outside of situations where a Code S spot is on the line. Variance be damned, Code S will be a more exciting place with Hyun there.

The worst case scenario: In Brood War, players would sometimes Hyuk’ing themselves. This roughly translated to building up a huge lead in a given game, but ending up losing it through whatever nefarious ways. With Hyun’s history, it is by no means conceivable that he messes this group up in mysterious ways. I foresee a future where this writer will approach the Board of Silly Concept Forming and introduce them to the concept of StarCraft players Hyun’ing themselves, where they are clearly good enough to make it through a qualifier but fail to do so through ways not quite comprehensible to mortal man.