by tree.hugger

imba.FXO.Strelok
Strelok enters this tournament as a replacement for Beastyqt. That's a shame, not because Strelok is an unworthy player or because I dislike him, but more because Beasty is one of the most underrated and exciting players in the EU scene at the moment, and it would've been quite fun to see how he would do in a group filled with two strong protoss players. With Strelok, there's not a lot that isn't well known about his playstyle. Orthodox and competent, Strelok is most famous for still unsieging all his tanks en-masse despite a good BW background and over a year of losing Sc2 games because of it. Oh well, if he wants to advance in Kiev, he'll really need excellent bio control and decision making, something that has never been his forte. Against NaNiwa, Strelok figures to be overmatched, but TITAN and White-Ra are within reach, if things go his way. Depending on a bunch of factors, like what Strelok has for breakfast, and the position of Mars in the sky, Strelok could go either 2-1, 1-2, or 0-3 here, but nothing guarantees him to advance. The home country advantage might come into play, but overall, a third place finish seems most probable.

ROX.KIS.TITAN
I highlighted TITAN in the Year in Review, as one of three players I felt extremely confident about going into 2012. Kiev will be the Russian's first chance to prove me right, and, needless to say, earn some money and fame for himself. The take on his play hasn't changed greatly since New Years, TITAN continues to boast stellar control, but it feels as though his intriguing play has been figured out to a degree, and he no longer has the advantage of being unknown. Against NaNiwa, he actually has a solid chance, PvP is still not a comfortable match-up, even for the best, and TITAN's control can surpass NaNi's. If he cannot defeat his fellow sons of Aiur, then it'll be left to take down Strelok, but here TITAN is at the least even, but probably a slight favorite. His PvT is his best match-up both statistically, and anecdotally, as his upset of SuperNoVa at WCG was probably the surprise of the tournament. Expect TITAN to give good games against everyone and he could certainly manage to pull out two wins. That should be good enough to advance.

Tt.White-Ra
What would a foreign tournament be without White-Ra, especially one in Ukraine? Thankfully, we won't have to see the inevitably tragic consequences of that, as the veteran protoss subbed in for d.KiLLeR who had what sounded like one of the worst ever travel experiences ever, and eventually dropped out. That's not good news for the rest of the first group, who were probably looking forward to bashing the jet-lagged and downtrodden Chilean zerg when he arrived. Instead, they get Ukraine's most famous player, who while probably not in fantastic shape, is still a force to be reckoned with, and one with significantly less wear and tear. But while I'm sure he's happy to participate, this is not a simple group for White-Ra. Everyone in this group can beat him, and NaNiwa and TITAN probably should. But a path to victory for Ra is in some scrappy PvP wins, and then beating Strelok. If we've learned anything in Sc2, it's that White-Ra can never be counted out.

FnaticMSI.NightEnD
NightEnD still remains something of an unknown, despite a long run of good results, and solid play. Slipping into the tournament at the last minute as a replacement for Diestar (who in turn was a replacement), NightEnD feels like an upgrade. Sometimes, NightEnD can be made to look bad, especially against opponents like Sound in the Homestory Cup, but his performance in last week's Shoutcraft Invitational raised his stock again, as he went toe to toe with ThorZaIN and Stephano, then outplayed DarKFoRcE, only to get ambushed at the last second with some pimpest play action to lose. But nonetheless, NightEnD continues to cement his reputation as a safe and solid player, one of the best protosses in Europe, and a force to be reckoned with in every tournament he enters, even if he only sometimes advances.

Group B is a tough order for each of these players, but there's no reason why NightEnD couldn't advance from it. Against Zenio, he will probably lose, although this being Zenio's first LAN in a while carries with it a lot of uncertainty. Against Kas, whom he beat convincingly at Dreamhack Winter, he is probably a slight underdog or an even bet. The final member of the group is Grubby, whom NightEnD is probably the more likely of the two to win. So why not NightEnD? The Romanian has a habit of finishing one spot below qualification, and so he'll probably find a way to end up third here, but there's absolutely nothing to suggest that he is out of his depth or anything besides a likely candidate to advance.

Grubby.Grubby
Ahhh, Grubby. If there's a player in esports who is difficult to predict, it's probably the Dutch protoss. At Homestory Cup, he looked completely alive and a major threat, barely missing the chance to eliminate Sound and make the round of eight. But in the Shoutcraft Invitational, he looked completely clueless, being pummeled by Stephano and Ret and not ever seeming to have an answer for the two top zerg players. At Kiev, he will face another top-calibre zerg in Zenio, a better PvPer than he in NightEnD, and a deadly terran player in Kas. It's hard to imagine things being tougher. But when Grubby comes prepared, he looks just as strong as anyone, and so a good deal of this group might hinge on which Grubby shows up to this tournament. Will it be the confident Grubby of Homestory, or the confused Grubby of Shoutcraft? I have no real insight into that, but it goes to say that the former ought to be favored to advance, and the latter has no chance.

Empire.Kas
Everyone knows Kas, but few people really know him too well. Yes, he's a very standard player, yes he plays a ton, and yes, he has trouble making his ladder results into LAN results. But recently, his offline results have been nothing short of spectacular. He currently leads the EU ladder in winning percentage, boasting a scary 81.70% at the time of this writing. He knows everything you can throw at him, and knows how to respond to it with precision. He's in Kiev as the National Champion of Ukraine, an impressive honor in itself, given how many strong players that country has produced. But the wrinkle, as always is his LAN struggles, which continue to persist.

The environment of a LAN is totally different, not just in the nerves or unfamiliarity department, but also in the seriousness with which other players take the games. Everyone brings out their custom game strategies, and Kas has often been ill-prepared to deal with those. This group is not easy; NightEnD won their match easily at Dreamhack, and Zenio is a Korean Code S zerg. That could mean an 0-2 right out of the gate. At his peak, Grubby can beat Kas easily as well. For all of the talent in this group, there's a lot of inconsistency too. Just as there are two Grubby's, there are two of Kas. If he could replicate his offline results here, or ever offline, watch out. But he has never been able to, so while Kas will probably contend here, I'd guess that he'll log one win, and finish below Zenio and a protoss.

mouz.HasuObs
HasuObs is another player who needs little introduction, as he has been one of the most active Sc2 players since the beta. But for all of that time, Hasu has always felt a little stuck in his ways. He still usually plays the deathball style that was prominent a year ago, and his tactics and mechanics appear pretty stale. He's good at what he does, but it's not particularly interesting, innovative, or likely to produce championships. This group looks like the easiest of the bunch by a wide margin, but that doesn't necessarily promise Hasu any relief. MMA headlines here, and despite all his TvP woes, it's a stretch to see Hasu as anything but fodder for the GSL champ. Pomi in PvP will be a complete crapshoot. The deciding match for Hasu will be his battle against TargA, the enigmatic Norwegian zerg based in Australia. Aggressive early, it's not obvious to me how his style will match-up against a player who is most skilled at surviving until a maxed army. But in terms of experience and results in this group, Hasu is, improbably, second best. It's less certain that'll mean advancing, but the German should probably be given the benefit of the doubt.

ROX.KIS.Pomi
Perhaps the most surprising player who qualified for IEM Kiev, Pomi was a more notable player in the middle of last year, but was never really able to distinguish himself and seemed to have faded away. It was odd that he qualified, and it's unlikely that he will progress too much further. Similar to elfi, Pomi is known for doing weird stuff, and sometimes getting away with it, or other times just sitting and getting a deathball. Pomi is not a slouch mechanically, however, and he has enough skill to make this group very interesting. While MMA will almost surely advance, the second place in this group will be a dogfight between the remaining three. Based on past results and success, Pomi feels the least likely of the bunch, but if his good results in the qualifier are an indicator of increased skill, then that could be flipped on it's head.

mTw.DIMAGA
DIMAGA has always been one of Europe's best, but he's been on the outside of most international successes. That's probably a combination of his refusal to ever do much harassment, or his constant headbutting of forcefield walls while getting wrecked by protoss AOE. Nonetheless, DIMAGA is an extremely good player, and he should advance in this group. His main competition is HerO, who has been disappointingly inconsistent after seeming to break through at MLG Providence and Dreamhack Winter. It's not out of the question for DIMAGA to take first place here, if HerO has the same difficulties that befell him at Homestory. But it's also not out of the question for DIMAGA to not advance; his toughest challenge will probably come from Feast, who is a real dark horse in this event. DIMAGA is a much stronger favorite against qxc, who hasn't looked so elite since he all-killed IM. But overall, it's reasonable to assume the result as somewhere in the middle; DIMAGA will probably make it out of his group and has the potential to beat nearly anyone (probable MMA exception) in the bracket stage.

Mill.Feast
Tied with TargA and Zenio as my most interesting players to watch in Kiev, Feast recently emerged on everyone's radar as a top player, and was quickly picked up by Millenium. It already looks like a smart pick-up, the French Belgian has been putting a quiet but impressive string of results together. Feast is an impressive player, possessing a versatile game with good fundamentals. He's not a one-trick pony, and has a solid grasp of recent strategy developments. Overall, he's a solid contender, but one who is probably several months away from real international success. This is his first major international LAN, and thus is the underdog, but he has the potential to surprise. At the very least, watch his games, they'll be interesting.

QxG.NaNiwa
Following his banishment from Code S, NaNiwa sounded almost philosophical during an interview on LiveOnThree, as he contemplated the fleeting nature of pro-gaming where everything can be given and taken away in the blink of an eye. What did he take away from this observation? An appreciation for fragility of a pro-gaming career, and thus the drive to try even harder to become the best in the world. At least that's what he said, in December of 2011.

It's time to make good on those words.

Naniwa already delighted everyone by upping his game at MLG Providence, taking down six GSL championships worth in Nestea and MVP. If he could just keep the status quo, I'm sure the fans would love it. However, if he showed that he elevated his game one more step... I'm just saying, I think IdrA and Elfi would like some non-Korean company at the World Championships.

by Waxangel

Liquid`HerO
Here's an unusual analogy: HerO is the Korean IdrA. Their races, nationalities, personalities, and play styles couldn't be more different. But look at their relationship with their fans. No other players inspire the longing sentiment of "if he could ever put it together, if he could get over his mental blocks, he could be the best player in the world" like those two. If the two fan bases could get over their EG/TL differences, they could hold quite a pity party.

We know who Hero can be. We saw it for one week between DreamHack Winter and the NASL Grand Finals, when he briefly became the best Protoss player in the world. It's just a matter of when and where he wants to show that side of himself. Alas, though we can see hundreds of his games on his stream, we'll never really know where his mind is at. So for yet another tournament, he's the wild card among wild cards. Expect nothing. Expect everything.


Liquid`Zenio
To start on a topic that's distinctly not IEM, let's talk about MLG. It's great publicity for the GSL when they send their best players over via the league exchange program, and those players just mop the floor with everyone else there. However, those guys are supposed to win, and it's no surprise when they do. What I've always thought could be a better piece of marketing would be to send over entirely mid-tier Code S players. The medals would still come back to Korea (I mean guys, you HAVE been paying attention to Code A for the past few seasons, right?), and the GSL would look even more formidable.

I bring that up because Zenio could be the perfect mid-tier GSL ambassador. Killer's been a bit shaky in his PvP, which has caused him to fail at that role so far. Zenio has excellent ZvZ so he's less likely to be coin-flipped out, and he has the tried and true Code-S level skills to make short work of most foreigners. Now, he has a reputation of losing his composure when the stakes are high, but otherwise nervous Koreans (*cough* HerO *cough*) have found that a little foreign air can be a great remedy for a case of the shakes. Though Zenio probably won't beat MMA, it's still very likely he'll bring some glory back to Korea. Heck, why isn't the GSL subsidizing this trip already?


SlayerS_MMA
The few times I've remembered a single player being a such prohibitive favorite to win it all like MMA at IEM Kiev, the name IMMvp was involved. MMA earned that status by winning the Blizzard Cup, and he showed it was no fluke recently by making his way through his Code S group with laughable ease. After seeing MMA best DongRaeGu and MVP at the Blizzard Cup, it's hard to say any of the Terran or Zerg players at Kiev will provide a credible threat.

The nine Protoss players, however, do present an interesting conundrum. The fact is that MMA really hasn't played much TvP in the past few months. He beat MC while the president was at the bottom of his slump in a match that was more indicative of MC's decline than MMA's prowess. In a 2-3 loss to FXO_z, MMA did look decent, without really impressing. Facing Naniwa in the Blizzard Cup, MMA used a Marine-Thor all-in to take a quick win. And that's about it.

Actually, I'll take that back. It's not really a conundrum. MMA is still an absurd favorite against the nine talented Protoss players gathered in Kiev. Those same concerns about TvP existed with Mvp as well, but we didn't really care because it was f***ing MVP. Well, MMA has now co-opted the Mvp factor. Maybe he ripped it from his soul after delivering that 3-0 beating in the Blizzard Cup. When you're the best player in the world, sometimes match-ups just don't matter. You'll always find a way.

by WaxAngel and HawaiianPig

inFi.TargA
Any player, no matter where he originally hails from, takes on the characteristics of the region he resides in. Just ask HuK or Rain. Unfortunately for Targa, his nordic skills have given way to the call of the SEA. Sorry Targa, Moonglade is the only SEA player who's managed to make an impact outside of the region so far. Until proven otherwise, we're going to say that's the way it stays.

coL.qxc
Is it unfair to put all of America's hopes on qxc, the sole representative of the stars and stripes at IEM Kiev? Even though pro-gaming has taken a backseat in his life, so he could focus more on studies? Even though he hasn't had a high profile tournament appearance in months, unless you count a best of thirty one series against Catz? Nope, it's not even the tiniest bit unfair. The privilege and burden of being born in the USA.

Teamliquid! Why are you spending so much time recording podcasts, and not actually doing your job writing useful things?

A good question, which we can answer in the form of our own question. Why spend hours coming up with ideas, trying to illuminate interesting topics in ESPORTS, when we can just get someone else who's more insightful to do it for us? Jokes aside, it can be truly insightful to talk to those people we call ESPORTS 'insiders,' and learn exactly why they deserve that title.

In this installment of our non-regular program, we talked to Michal "Carmac" Blicharz, who is the 'product manager' of the IEM Global Challenge. Basically, that means he's the guy who runs the show. Besides having a knack for running international pro-gaming tournaments, Carmac is also known for his talents in journalism and looking like DIMAGA.

We talked to DIMAGACarmac about IEM Kiev predictions, IEM's operating philosophy, making money now versus sustainability in the future, casters versus players, League of Legends as a rising ESPORT, and how to not get called out by Cloud for paying out prize money late. In short, we talked about ESPORTS for an hour without actually talking about anything that happened inside a game. Actually, it's not even much of an IEM Kiev podcast at all, as it is Carmac talks about ESPORTS. Well, that's pretty cool, too.

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This podcast was recorded on January 16th, 2012.