[TSL] White-Ra, Cloud, G5 Interviews - Page 3

On December 27 2009 23:06 bugsybins wrote:
This White-ra guy is like an old man sitting atop a mountain and staring at stuff, chuckling and thinking "Oh, if only if they knew...".

On December 27 2009 23:06 bugsybins wrote:
This White-ra guy is like an old man sitting atop a mountain and staring at stuff, chuckling and thinking "Oh, if only if they knew...".

On December 28 2009 02:29 oberon wrote:
"Either way I think IdrA will win this tournament with 90% certainty."

Argh. Stats-man ANGRY!

I think people greatly underestimate the role of chance in tournaments like this (same deal as the OSL/MSL/whatever). If someone is really good at a specific matchup in Korea, they tend to have a 70%+ win-rate. Let's give Idra an 85% win-rate in all three matchups, and a 95% chance at making the RO16. To win the tournament, he'll need to qualify for the RO16, then win 5 consecutive matches: 0.95 * (0.85^5) = 0.422, or less than 43%.

Obviously, this isn't a slight on Idra -- the point is that even 16 players is a lot, and all of the people who make the RO16 are going to be good. To have a 90% chance of winning, even just starting from the RO16, a player would need over a 97% winrate against other RO16 players.

Having now wandered wildly off-topic -- these interviews are always awesome. Are we going to all the groups before group play starts?

On December 28 2009 03:36 sAfuRos wrote:



While this is statistically sound this doesn't really work for application to a tournament like this -.-

On December 28 2009 04:19 Welmu wrote:
BTW, White-Ra new mantoss!? ^.^

On December 28 2009 04:29 onihunter wrote:


No, not new mantoss

there will never be another