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[TSL] White-Ra, Cloud, G5 Interviews - Page 3
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Niggurath
Chile103 Posts
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icyF
Finland305 Posts
On December 27 2009 23:06 bugsybins wrote: This White-ra guy is like an old man sitting atop a mountain and staring at stuff, chuckling and thinking "Oh, if only if they knew...". Haha! Exactly my thoughts! Really nice content once again! | ||
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Pyrthas
United States3196 Posts
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tree.hugger
Philadelphia, PA10406 Posts
On December 27 2009 23:06 bugsybins wrote: This White-ra guy is like an old man sitting atop a mountain and staring at stuff, chuckling and thinking "Oh, if only if they knew...". That   White-Ra interview was amazing. | ||
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DeViOuS
United States22 Posts
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oberon
United States1320 Posts
Argh. Stats-man ANGRY! I think people greatly underestimate the role of chance in tournaments like this (same deal as the OSL/MSL/whatever). If someone is really good at a specific matchup in Korea, they tend to have a 70%+ win-rate. Let's give Idra an 85% win-rate in all three matchups, and a 95% chance at making the RO16. To win the tournament, he'll need to qualify for the RO16, then win 5 consecutive matches: 0.95 * (0.85^5) = 0.422, or less than 43%. Obviously, this isn't a slight on Idra -- the point is that even 16 players is a lot, and all of the people who make the RO16 are going to be good. To have a 90% chance of winning, even just starting from the RO16, a player would need over a 97% winrate against other RO16 players. Having now wandered wildly off-topic -- these interviews are always awesome. Are we going to all the groups before group play starts? | ||
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sYz-Adrenaline
United States1850 Posts
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sAfuRos
United States743 Posts
On December 28 2009 02:29 oberon wrote: "Either way I think IdrA will win this tournament with 90% certainty." Argh. Stats-man ANGRY! I think people greatly underestimate the role of chance in tournaments like this (same deal as the OSL/MSL/whatever). If someone is really good at a specific matchup in Korea, they tend to have a 70%+ win-rate. Let's give Idra an 85% win-rate in all three matchups, and a 95% chance at making the RO16. To win the tournament, he'll need to qualify for the RO16, then win 5 consecutive matches: 0.95 * (0.85^5) = 0.422, or less than 43%. Obviously, this isn't a slight on Idra -- the point is that even 16 players is a lot, and all of the people who make the RO16 are going to be good. To have a 90% chance of winning, even just starting from the RO16, a player would need over a 97% winrate against other RO16 players. Having now wandered wildly off-topic -- these interviews are always awesome. Are we going to all the groups before group play starts? While this is statistically sound this doesn't really work for application to a tournament like this -.- | ||
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Re-Play-
Dominican Republic825 Posts
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Ganfei
Taiwan1439 Posts
On December 28 2009 03:36 sAfuRos wrote: While this is statistically sound this doesn't really work for application to a tournament like this -.- Oh? And why's that? | ||
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Welmu
Finland3295 Posts
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onihunter
United States515 Posts
On December 28 2009 04:19 Welmu wrote: BTW, White-Ra new mantoss!? ^.^ No, not new mantoss there will never be another | ||
GHOSTCLAW
United States17042 Posts
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Belano
Sweden657 Posts
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Belladona
Chile127 Posts
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Xxio
Canada5565 Posts
I had no idea White-Ra was still this good, awesome | ||
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Soulforged
Latvia933 Posts
On December 28 2009 04:29 onihunter wrote: No, not new mantoss there will never be another Stork's the new mantoss. White-Ra's the badass toss, and been so for a long time. | ||
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thopol
Japan4560 Posts
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imbecile
563 Posts
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s[O]rry
Canada398 Posts
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