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On May 19 2009 13:49 Caller wrote:Show nested quote +On May 19 2009 13:47 Ace wrote:On May 19 2009 13:47 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:On May 14 2009 16:18 Qatol wrote:
Bodyguard - Bodyguards are the protectors of the elected roles. As long as they remain alive the Mayor and Pardoner are both immune to all hits during the night. Bodyguards will not know who each other are, the elected roles will not know who they are, and they will be chosen from towny's after the Mayor chooses who to lynch. For all purposes the bodyguards gain no special abilities. You show up as Towny for all Rolechecks. Emphasis mine. whats your point? he means to say its really strange that both BGs died. It could be luck.
luck is doubtful. but it is possible.
But consider, why would Ver or Ace kill off their own bodyguards? It is an act which immediately thrusts suspicion upon the elected officers.
Consider the possibility: One of Ver or Ace is in the mafia. BG roles get leaked (I should note at this point that I am not surprised this happened. Maybe a little surprised at Fishball. You know better than that, FB), mafia decides to kill the bodyguards and direct suspicion towards the innocent officer, to convince the town for a nice ol' lynching like back in the olden days. See: Ace's posts, "Ver is mafia."
I do not think that's what is really going down here though, just because Ace's posts would be absurdly fucking transparent if that was the mafia plan. I am probably too stupid to figure it out, but will sleep on it and try in the morning anyway.
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Questions that may be impossible or improbable to answer:
1. Who knew the BG roles? Ver, Ace, or both? A third party?
2. Was it dumb luck?
3. If not luck, then what is motivation for the act? Who benefits?
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Ouch that was a brutal killing. Graphic too. And poor birdie 
Anyway, back to work.
-----------------------------------------<LucasWoJ
Original Message:
Wow, I was considering the exact same thing the second he posted claiming that nemy was the traitor. In my early PMs with him, I tried getting him to indirectly answer the question of whether he genuinely thought that nemy was the traitor or whether he had some greater scheme (he assumed I meant, "nemy is a dt so he might live through the night.")
He essentially avoided answering for a time and eventually claimed that he was convinced nemy was not blue. After asking for my advice on how to post, he took three hours to gather his thoughts and post (after which he left).
Since, I've also had a conversation with nemy in which I was hoping for a specific response, but I got absolutely nothing. I'm not so convinced nemy is not the traitor. Here's the PM:
From: nemY
Subject: Re: mafia
Date: 5/18/09 11:57
Thanks!
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Original Message:
If the mafia family hasn't contacted you yet they're absolutely retarded. You're the most transparent traitor that has ever played this game. Just shut up and leave the thread already. You're going to die, get over it.
A little later, he PM'd me again saying: From: nemY
Subject: So?
Date: 5/18/09 12:22
Will you vote for me as mayor/pardoner?
I sent both PMs to Ver for him to comment (a day ago), but he chose not to respond to those PMs.
Also, in his first few posts, Ver said something to the effect of "would I be posting this often if I were mafia?" which raised my eyebrows a little. He had only posted three times in a matter of a couple hours before then (none of which were particularly long posts).
-----------------------------------------<Me
Original Message:
No he hasn't. He pmed me twice between this last post and his mafia % list post. Some people I've been talking to seem to think he's a strong candidate for mafia, but I'm more inclined to think he's the real traitor.
It would make sense in that
a) Qatol would give traitor to a person who could play the role well. its something we've discussed in irc when we were deciding the roles etc.
b) I doubt Ver would be this crazy to think this is good mafia play. He may be trying to get lynched. I don't know why he would want to get lynched this quickly as I don't think we were onto a real mafia candidate earlier on and I don't know if he would cause that much chaos unless we were onto someone he thought was mafia. But then again, maybe he is hoping to cause enough chaos to give the mafia a hefty lead early on.
c) It would explain his reaction to nemY. Sure, probably most people were pointing at nemY and saying traitor! But I think it would make sense for Ver to play this card. Note that the traitor would be the only person who actually knew if nemY is a true DT or not (I'm assuming nemY isn't red, and I don't think anyone does at this point). By diverting votes from nemY, Ver a) causes the town chaos, b) wastes a town lynch, and c) wastes the good office of mayor had it been in a towny's hands.
That is one possible theory. But its just a theory I don't know, what do you think? Something fishy is definitely going on. I doubt he's blue. He's acting totally out of character.
-----------------------------------------<LucasWoJ
Original Message:
Has he stayed in contact with you via PMs since his last post? It seems there's a trend in his posting (meaning the "I'll come on for a moment and leave without saying anything else", and I'm hoping it's only because of his illness).
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Sorry Ver, but your logic doesn't add up.
You mentioning amber[light] to me as a possible inactive had everything to do with you perceiving me as thinking he was inactive - hence all you have to do is mention him to me. So once you come with your defense of "but if I was mafia - why!?" obviously I'd say oh shit! That makes sense!
But then you come out of no where and lynch infinity21, whom you never even told me you were going to lynch. I never even told you I was going to bed, so I never got a PM from you asking your input about him. Surely if you cared enough to ask about MBH and amber[light] you'd do the same for infinity21 right? Right.
Strike One.
Now let's get to your defense of nemy. In fact I don't have to because it's pretty much nonsense. If nemy is the traitor keep him alive - rofl? And lynch who instead? Remember when I said I read posts objectively?
LOL.
Strike Two.
Ahh and now let's get to this bodyguard scenario. Lucaswoj dying, shit man what the fuck? Now we all know I think Lucas is pretty bad in most cases. So who the hell would want to kill him? You mean in a game with all these good players HE is hit first? Ok I guess, *shrug*. Whoa hold on - the only other Bodyguard is hit also!? Oh dear. That means they'd want someone in office dead. How did they find out? Well, easy - the bodyguards told the Mayor. See, I'm guessing Lucas in his very excited behavior as he's always hyper PM'd you and revealed his role. Lucas is always trusting of authority like that. In fact I bet he didn't even READ the updated role descriptions because that's just the kind of thing he'd not do. So of all the 30 people playing and much better targets 2 out of the 3 deaths hit the only 2 people standing in my way of putting the rape on Mafia? Yea, your right it's laughable I'm questioning you - NOT!
Strike 3.
OFF WITH HIS HEAD!
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United States2186 Posts
On May 19 2009 13:50 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On May 19 2009 13:49 Caller wrote:On May 19 2009 13:47 Ace wrote:On May 19 2009 13:47 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:On May 14 2009 16:18 Qatol wrote:
Bodyguard - Bodyguards are the protectors of the elected roles. As long as they remain alive the Mayor and Pardoner are both immune to all hits during the night. Bodyguards will not know who each other are, the elected roles will not know who they are, and they will be chosen from towny's after the Mayor chooses who to lynch. For all purposes the bodyguards gain no special abilities. You show up as Towny for all Rolechecks. Emphasis mine. whats your point? he means to say its really strange that both BGs died. It could be luck. ... I'll let you say that to yourself 20 times and see if you still believe it.
There are 3 ways BGs could have died.
1) roleclaimed to the wrong person
2) behavior analysis
3) luck
1) didn't happen to either of us. Yes Lucas was one of the people talking to me but why would he roleclaim? I never talk with mikeymoo so that possibility is gone. This is a veterans game and you expect people to suddenly roleclaim to the mayor? lol?
2) Normally very likely but this time there was simply too limited time for it to happen. Bringing us to point 3.
3) This is the most likely possibility. However, it was not chance luck. It was deliberate blue sniping that inadvertently missed its mark
Don't push yourself down this hill Ace. You can say what I did on day 1 was shoddy but I argue it was making plays to force the mafia's hand. You know I don't just sit back and force the mafia to make mistakes; I force them to make mistakes. I lessened my suspicions of you because you passed two of my tests pretty well. If you're mafia that means your skill has grown considerably. If you're town it means That could just be misguided judgment but now you are accusing me over something as ridiculous as this?
And furthermore you have to explain why I would somehow would have the stunning ability to figure out and kill my bgs when there is no evidence. I'm very good at blue sniping but I'm not perfect; that should be pretty obvious from al these games. Then you have to explain why I would sacrifice two of my kills solely so I could make myself vulnerable to a vigi and to kill you. Why are you this important? When I'm mafia I ignore high profile players and just blue snipe. I've done that 3x, it's worked 3x, I have no reason to deviate. I didn't touch you last game because I knew you weren't blue. Where's your savior sense now? I'm not seeing it.
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United States2186 Posts
With incognito posting that it's pretty clear.
There is no way Lucas would roleclaim to me if he thought I was the traitor.
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Except you never answered him for a whole day...
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United States2186 Posts
I've gotten 62 pm's in 2 days and I've had to prepare and defend my honors thesis. I'm not superhuman sorry I'm gonna miss a few or not respond to everything I don't feel needs a response.
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Stop with the behavior analysis bullshit. There's no way someone "acts like a bodyguard". Especially since you know - they haven't had the role for that long for people to be analyzing their posts even if it were possible.
The chance of hitting 2 bodyguards is a whopping 2 out of 870 in this game, or 1 out of 435 for you anal math people. I'm not going with the luck factor. So your #2 and #3 explanations are out the door.
However you are spot on about #1 - they did roleclaim. To you. Sucker.
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United States2186 Posts
On May 19 2009 14:08 Ace wrote:
Stop with the behavior analysis bullshit. There's no way someone "acts like a bodyguard". Especially since you know - they haven't had the role for that long for people to be analyzing their posts even if it were possible.
The chance of hitting 2 bodyguards is a whopping 2 out of 870 in this game, or 1 out of 435 for you anal math people. I'm not going with the luck factor. So your #2 and #3 explanations are out the door.
However you are spot on about #1 - they did roleclaim. To you. Sucker.
And why would I kill them if they roleclaimed? To get at you? ya uh huh
I already posted why they wouldn't have (I never talk with MM and lucas thought I was the traitor).
Don't waste our time.
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Whats that?
You hear it guys?
Yep, sounds like grave digging to me.
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Thus supporting the idea that he's most likely traitor dont ya think? He wants to kill you obviously because it would sabotage the town. Eliminate both elected positions. For free. No mafia deaths necessary.
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Incog, could you restructure your post please? I'm having trouble following it lol. Oh yeah, if you're looking for the continuation (and subsequent last post between Lucas and myself) it's this:
From: LucasWoJ
Subject: Re: So?
Date: 5/18/09 13:09
Will you vote for showtime?
-----------------------------------------
Original Message:
Will you vote for me as mayor/pardoner?
I think he was part of the group of people that wanted to make a late push for Showtime! as mayor.
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^^ Do you have a CC for us ?
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On May 19 2009 14:12 Incognito wrote:
Thus supporting the idea that he's most likely traitor dont ya think? He wants to kill you obviously because it would sabotage the town. Eliminate both elected positions. For free. No mafia deaths necessary.
If he was traitor then how would he get them killed? That would mean he found a mafia member, which i don't know how good you have to be to find someone that is mafia and tell them with out the worry of accidentally telling a person who is not mafia and blowing your traitor r/c cover.
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nothing useful, "There was no clear horizon separating the star-filled sky and the dark, choppy waters of the Liquia Sea." is red-herring. I'ma die tonight.
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On May 19 2009 13:32 Qatol wrote:
A storm started to rage over Liquidia as the night waned. A little gray and red bird flew around aimlessly looking for shelter. It stopped at the town cemetery, resting briefly on Qatol's tombstone, before deciding to cower near LTT's headstone. However, a particularly strong gust of wind knocked the headstone over, crushing the bird.
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Oh don't worry, Ver has lots of things he needs to clear up. Like if he was so sure nemy wasn't red, why didn't he just ask for the only other remaining DT to rolecheck nemy on Day 2, and role check another person on Day 3/4 and ask for that guy to be his mouthpiece if nemy flips red.
But of course ya know, Ver is too busy with tons of PMs about nothing to figure this out.
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On May 19 2009 14:16 Tricode wrote:Show nested quote +On May 19 2009 14:12 Incognito wrote:
Thus supporting the idea that he's most likely traitor dont ya think? He wants to kill you obviously because it would sabotage the town. Eliminate both elected positions. For free. No mafia deaths necessary. If he was traitor then how would he get them killed? That would mean he found a mafia member, which i don't know how good you have to be to find someone that is mafia and tell them with out the worry of accidentally telling a person who is not mafia and blowing your traitor r/c cover.
What??? Well this was in response to Ver so maybe you got confused since Ace posted right before me?
Anyway I meant that Ver is likely traitor the way he's playing now. If he were mafia, this is quite frankly poor play. But if he were traitor, it would make sense. I'm not saying he told anyone he is traitor. But presumably Ver could have planned to get Ace killed (by the mafia) by killing off the BGs. BGs are dead, so both Ver and Ace can be night killed. Then both our elected town offices are down the drain, and Ace is dead (if he is town). Ver would also be dead, but it doesn't matter since he doesnt affect mafia KP. He would have wasted the two days for the town to eliminate him and thrown the town into chaos. Using L's terms, its a good risk to reward ratio isnt it? Nice play my friend.
*edit...apparently the ":" sign before the "r" makes some weird smiley?
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Let's take a look at the clues, meanwhile:
First: Mafia number 1: Lots of crunchy sounds and the needle. The head bursting and the fingerprints could be clues too. It could be RoL, with his bursting quote.
Mafia number 2 is clearly ditzy. Dazed a bit, walks past mikeymoo several times, and I'm sorry to say this but it could be Incognito. Cognizant= thinking, and in-cognizant could be interpreted to being not thinking. Although Incognito seems pretty innocent from what I recall from my game-he's playing fairly innocent here imho.
Mafia number 3 is the raker. I love the rake, don't get me wrong, and I use it whenever I can, so this clue could point to me. But... that may require too indepth knowledge here of mafia assraking traditions. It could also be one of the many, many people with the "courage to fight a man" quotes...
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On May 19 2009 14:17 nemY wrote:
nothing useful, "There was no clear horizon separating the star-filled sky and the dark, choppy waters of the Liquia Sea." is red-herring. I'ma die tonight.
could we get the actual pm pls?
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EPT
