Mafia VII - GG
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With that said, I've only seen the discussion of the CK, and, to me, his involvement does not seem that monumental. He can't use his role until Day 2, and, in my opinion, he has far more to gain with allying himself with a member of the town than simply with a member of the mafia. That he could go against the town does not need to be stated by almost literally every other person that posts. That's counter-productive. I say this because I've been waiting for someone to elect for mayor, but the only serious campaign which I see is Qatol (and although I feel that he probably is not mafia, I always feel uncomfortable with the fact that he's far-and-away the leader in vote count (in fact unanimous, I think)). That lack of focus has caused me to abstain thus far.
Several pages above I wrote, "I say this because I've been waiting for someone to elect for mayor, but the only serious campaign which I see is Qatol (and although I feel that he probably is not mafia, I always feel uncomfortable with the fact that he's far-and-away the leader in vote count (in fact unanimous, I think)). That lack of focus has caused me to abstain thus far."
Malongo, the fact that he said, "Probably b/c this is my first time" makes me very suspicious concerning his role. I mean, that's what AttackZerg did several games ago, and it worked flawlessly. That coupled with his apparent rage (if he were joking when he elected Fakesteve, and his tone appeared humorous to me, so I thought he was, then there should have been absolutely no logical reason for him to explode like that). Even if he is in mafia, it's completely nonsensical. (The over-reaction I'm alluding to is the following, as quoted from malango's quote: "And I can understand the fact that you would consider me as inactive since I was actually busy enjoying my outside life trying to learn and practice golf, preparing for my college transfer, and just doing my own business HOWEVER when everyone starts bashing at me for such a pointless idiotic stupid reason, that's where I decide to come out in the open and talk about it." He completely misrepresents his situation.)
Behaviorally speaking, he seems to be an indisputable candidate for mafia, for his strangeness is more than apparent. With that said, I have two further tasks. First, does this behavior sync up with his posting habits outside of this thread? If not, and it should/would be apparent, then suspicions would rise even more. Second, are there any concrete clues that link him? His behavior to me seems stupid, quite frankly, and if he were mafia, then this would more than expose him. If neither of the two are looked at by tomorrow, I'll do that myself.
Bear in mind, however, that he has and had the ability to stare at a computer screen and decide whether he wishes to say something or not. He's either very impulsive, or he has a reason to post the very strange (for lack of a better word) way he has thus far. Never underestimate that when making that judgment whether he is in mafia or not. Because of that uncertainty that comes with his ability to decide what he posts, I'd say it's more like 20%.
Actually, if I read your post correctly, you're suggesting that there's another 20% of this guy we haven't found yet. What is that 20%? A townie? A marshmellow?
On a side note, I'd like to make it explicitly clear that these ideas are not meant to point fingers; rather, they are observations that I have come across while reading through everyone's posts. If there are any flaws in them, tell me. Dialogues and discussions do far more to help us win than do preaches. Of course, this lack of explanation that I have noticed could also mean that a private circle has begun to form, and, once more, I'm not part of it, so I may not be reading into people's behavior accurately for that reason, either.
Also, while reading this post bear in mind that human behavior cannot be read accurately without a doubt over the Internet. I've been saying this far too frequently over the past several games, but it seems that no one has listened to me. Any person can manipulate what he has to say or wants to convey with preparation, and this indirect communication allows him to do just that. Therefore, judging someone based on one or two posts alone is not sufficient, I feel, in claiming that, behaviorally speaking, they're in the mafia.
And also, don't forget what analysis is. It's not just listing things. It's far more complex.
Look at what Caller had said before.
"By the way, the "pressing into eyes" reminds me of the coins from the Boondock Saints, the coins of passage across the Styx."
This actually seems like a legitimate point. But I think you're missing the point here. The mafioso is over the guy's dead body. And he's placing something into his eyes. What can it be? It'd make sense if it's a coin, for then the dead fusiondf could find himself resting in peace being transported to Hades. Then we can go on with that. But it's pointless, for what if it's not a coin? The ambiguity of the phrase "pressing into eyes," linguistically speaking, conveys an importance on the ACTION OF RETURNING, and NOT on the WHATEVER HE'S PRESSING INTO THE EYES. That's absolutely crucial. We never learn HOW the mafia killed fusiondf. Not once is it mentioned. He's simply dead. And the mafioso's still there. He's leaning over his body, and he's adjusting it (he's pressing something into his eyes). That's significant, for it tells us the only thing his death can that would lead us to the mafioso. He's remorseful. Now, the author says, "Over the body of fusiondf." Unless the writer is Scaramanga (who I know is an awful, often incoherent author), this is intentional. If he were alive, then the author would/should have said, "over fusiondf." That's the only way this analysis, at least the only way I can see, can be illegitimate, and to assume that the creator of the post actually recognizes the necessity of word-choice (that is to say, the importance of a quality of expression) is, unfortunately, far too presumptuous. I'm not providing a name because I'd prefer just to leave with a profile. Choosing a player and then finding clue that link to him are irresponsible, although, when playing in a group of 50 players, it seems that that is often the only way to designate a mafia. This lack of faith in the author is reinforced when we look later: "Before he could turn around bockit head was slammed into the juke box over and over till he died." That's really bad writing. You don't have to slam someone's head into a juke box "over and over" to kill them. The fact that he's saying "until he died" leads me to think that he's actually slamming the head for quite some time. But wait, that can mean one of two things: firstly, Bockit isn't really a human (or he's wearing some impressive piece that would protect his skull from the clash against sharp glass); secondly, and perhaps most fittingly, the assaulter isn't really strong. That would suggest he's puny. Alright, that seems to make sense. But, oh crap, it doesn't, because whoever wrote the post said "slammed" which suggests a more-than-mild- force. Only the first of the two suggestions would work, and, since it was neither mentioned nor believable, it can be inferred that the writing is atrocious. That's really depressing in this situation; however, I really hope that in this case, it is valid. Hopefully, with some help, we can find who links up to this diligent remorse (key word: I need help here from the rest of the town!).
Now the most culpable post after that Day post was JeeJee's. I might be misinterpreting his words. He writes, "now that's interesting
i assume the vig description will be altered to allow this to happen since it's obviously a vig kill"
He never explains why it's interesting, and then he automatically concludes that BC will change the description. His thought-process here, in my opinion, is illogical. It seems like he had spent time thinking what he would write, for the presumption that it's "obviously a vig kill" is not obvious at all. It makes me a little suspicious about him, since that would have been against the explicit rules, and any player playing this game should (and I truly hope) knows that. Behaviorally speaking, he can immediately be incriminated. The only problem is that although he should have read the game rules, he might not. This loophole (the presumption that people will do what they're supposed to, especially when it's effective to help entertain a final purpose) adds skepticism to any limited behavioral analysis. His later PMs seem briefed. They're not necessarily short; they're simply fragmented. Why is that I wonder? Would you yourself care to explain, JeeJee? The reason I'm asking is because later on, (at the end of my route thus far, which is page 23), you analyze a clue that you feel links to qatol, and it seems to make a bit of sense. It's not terribly suspicious, it's simply a shift in tone, and I'm wondering whether you'd care to explain. In truth, I myself did not catch that nuance in the rules; the fact that I arrived after this was figured out is the only reason I didn't post similarly in confusion.
Here's what Chuiu said:
"I don't want to sound paranoid but maybe there are two mafia families this round. Another possibility is that Contract Killer shows up as red, hopefully we can get some answers from BC. I don't have time to catch up right now but I will when I get back home in a few hours."
He actually makes the connection. But he says "maybe." Out of nowhere, he suggests two families. This is absolutely key, in my opinion, since it shows that either he's making a huge conceptual leap knowing that the families were not part of the game, or he's read the entirety of the rules. We know he hasn't. He says "maybe." It seems that a mafia would make a similar post. Of course, there's the chance that he did make that conceptual leap out of nowhere. Who knows? One post is certainly not fair enough to make that decision.
On the topic of the double lynch. A double lynch, in my opinion, is an asset to the town, and it can only be propitious when we have tangible suspects. By Ace's post telling all that a double lynch is a bad idea, no one had explained why they had voted for a double lynch. And the reason for this is inactivity. I admit that I myself am a culprit, but from pages 18-23, I see only a dozen names that constantly reappear. This is bad. It leads us away from a discussion and a collaboration of insights and rather focuses more on listening to a simple lecture. Therefore, I advise all inactives that if they wish to help the town, then they should do more than simply speak up. Post you suspicions. And don't just list them. Elucidate them. Please. At this rate, the town will remain an unorganized crew, even after we've lost two detectives. (Which, by the way, means that this DT CANNOT be inactive, since doing so would make a valuable resource worth nothing. This doesn't mean that he needs to post; it does, however, mean that he needs to be active in his search. And precise, unfortunately.)
** I think, most importantly, we need to look at Bockit's previous posts. He was killed by another mafia who did not know he was mafia. That means that in one or more of his posts, he must have accused one of them (either directly or indirectly, he must have used some logic); in the process, of course, he might have been attempting to divert attention away from a mafia he had known. Therefore, we need to look back at his posts. They above all give us an incredible wealth of information. After reading the remaining two pages, I'll do that. Hopefully others will do as well, so that this isn't simply a preaching. >.>
On May 02 2009 18:49 Vivi57 wrote:
Meh, I've been so lazy about this game.
when I get the chance, I'm going to do some clue analysis and try to build on what we have. It's just so hard to get myself to do this knowing that last game, we didn't get a single mafia through clue analysis.
Show nested quote +
On May 01 2009 14:52 Incognito wrote:
Goodies from a DT.
"only too see an uncomprehensable phrase before the tv exploded" IS a clue.
The "clumsiness" clue does not point to Qatol.
Did everyone miss this? The strongest link to Qatol isn't a clue towards him. Is the lynch based off vengence or just not caring? Is there actually anything to go on for this lynch?
I might be missing something, but why does everyone seemingly have the propensity to vote for someone who has been definitively linked as NOT a mafia? Although Qatol clearly does not have the making of a good leader (which I forecast when I asked anyone/someone to begin another campaign for mayor), it seems that he's not mafia, or, at least, the only thing upon which we had him pinned has come back negative. The fact that people are considering killing someone who we have evidence has no basis to be called mafia really worries me; this charge is irrational, and I think needs to be explored more fully.
Things to consider:
1) That it isn't a DT message. What that would suggest is that Incognito is aligned with Qatol. If it's not a DT message, and indeed a DT is currently thinking to himself, "Wait, the clue came up red" or "Huh? I never checked that clue!" then here is my advice. I'd assume that by this time a DT would have checked the clue or any other convincing clue to Qatol, as it's THE ONLY clue analysis we've really had this game (Malongo's analysis is actually convincing, but far too premature to have any DT action, I think). If that has not yet happened, the DT, if she/he had not yet used a clue check for today should get on that.
However if he or she has and has found something contrary to Incognito's post, then he or she has two options. State it blatantly to the town. That's risky. You'll probably end up being hit. Secondly, you can choose to find a mouth. This can also be dangerous. This can be a risky call, but it seems to me that Caller is indeed a vig (dreamflower makes a convincing case).
If Incognito's post is indeed legitimate and no other DT (presumably because the one who PM'd incognito is the only one left), then this is obvious, but also essential to say, since it seems that few have actually thought in this game: a medic should protect incognito. He would be useful to the town has he would have contact with the detective.
2) Once that is settled, again, I'm questioning what benefit there is to kill Qatol. Our only apparent clue to him (if there are any others, please state them; I tend to ignore clues and focus on behavior, and, behaviorally speaking, Qatol seems less involved and therefore less involved) does not match to him. Why would the town vote for this? There's only one mafia dead, and we're disorganized. Killing Qatol because he's less active is stupid (as is killing for the reason mynock surreptiously has decided upon: "I don't even care if he's Mafia. He deserves this."). I'm not saying he's mafia. I can't say for certain yet. I'm saying we shouldn't be saying that killing a mayor because we don't like the job he's doing is a win. It's a loss. Find someone against whom we have substantial evidence against and lynch them. We can't just decide to continue to be disorganized and hope for chance to win this game; we're already behind.
3) With that said, I'm asking Qatol to be more useful for us. We need you to help us. In previous games you were making constant note of people's activity; you're not doing that this time around. If you are indeed making/exchanging ideas privately with an inner circle, you're safe. You have bodyguards. You can say things without the worry of being killed by the mafia. What has been said? It's been almost a week, I think, so I suspect something MUST have been said. The evidence (or lack thereof) compels me to sway my vote away from your lynching; however, if this inactivity persists, then you really are only hurting the town. Please help us. One more day without a mafia dead will put us almost certainly irretrievably behind.
4) Activity. I've been viewing the thread, and very little has been said. I only make posts when there's anything constructive to say; however, when NO ONE is saying anything (i.e., not even posting), then that's a problem. It's especially a problem for the town. If your strategy is to stay low, then it's only useful for some purposes. If you're a townie, it is never useful. Post something that can help us exchange our ideas. If the same few convinced people continues posting something about nothing, then we have this game lost. I'm going to look at malongo's post and QuickStriker's behavior on the whole before I make any judgments; however, I'll also keep an open mind with any other potential mafias. I urge you to do the same.
We can't afford to be wrong. I don't think it's in our best interest to merely say, after we lynch someone not the mafia, especially in the state we're in right now, whatever, we can fail. Right now, we really can't. Theoretically this is a splendid idea. However, if people begin to vote before we actually have conclusive evidence against someone else, what then?
With that said, I will sign this declaration. I'm glad to see a conspicuous townie in this game. Perhaps now we can organize. Good work.
+ Show Spoiler +
In the quiet and warm peace of his livingroom Malongo has been very upset by the turn of events. The bloody god over the sky had put a test over the town of liquidia: the test of number misinformation. With two bands of Mafia shooting everywhere, an uncertain number of random shooters with no alliance known and some proper town fucktards shooting as well there was little the town could do. Resistance was futile, and Malongo knew that. However Malongo knew that he wasnt alone. He knew that several others were at their own homes, in the same position as him, trying to figure what to do and ready to leave the town ala "Mynock". We cant do shit, said Malongo to himself, we are screwed. Looking at the towns citizen list he went sure that only a miracle could save them. Then taking a shot of fine wine Malongo prepared to the night, knowing that the game was almost over, the town had lost a lot of valuable citizens and not just that, they couldnt believe the town mayor anymore. The worst part: the town had failed to find at least one of the members of the mafia that desolated the town, the only red body they found was a rather strange death and the tow n was unable to find the real explanation about this death. While walking towards his room Malongo realized that this was the only time. He was a townie afterall, he wasnt going to be "inactive" because of some fuckers he was going to fight until death, and calmly Malongo took the town flag he had for special times and walked out, marching alone to the town main square in front of the city hall, where he could hear the shooting. There, with the only background of his flag he started his declamation.
- The town is fucked: We are screwed number wise and activity wise. Take a look at todays voting: there are at most 25 voters. Wich means several people dont care about the town and the game anymore. Look at the deaths list. Several blues, some greens. Only one red bastard. Look at the town killing power and compare to the mafia KP. At best its a 6/1 ratio. Worst than that: we are just running around like mindless ants trying to hit a mafia. We cant trust our neighboor anymore, we have nothing but our votes.
- I propose a simple list of procedures to at least try to end this game with our best chances. The only way we can achieve the miracle this time is: IF there are two mafias this game (something we cant be sure because of bloodygod), then to win we need that they shoot eachother somehow. Thats the only way. If theres only one mafia (and Bockits death was just a diversion) then we are screwed anyways. Procedures list (all this im asking for is supposed to happen next lynch. Theres almost nothing to do today):
1- I demand that the town Mayor abstains from using his 3 voting power. Three times Qatol as failed to make a red lynch. Even in the case that Quickstriker is lynched and turns red we cant trust him, because he had protected the same Quickstriker 3 times now, and he is lynching Quickstriker because the other option is himself. We cant trust him because his activity has been 100% inconsistant and his voting pattern only shows that its him the one deciding the lynchs. If the Mayor fails to adhere this rule we lynch him next day. At this point I assume theres nothing else to do for todays voting. If theres a small chance that Qatol is townie sided he will for sure make 1 vote like everyone else.
2- We start Lynching inactives and clue pointed players: If we need that mafia hit eachother, and looking at the mafia hitlists we can be sure of something: They dont hit inactives. They dont hit nonvoters. Thats why lynching Lordweird was better in my opinion this time however ive failed to convince you. We force mafia to come out. I wont lose a game because some fuckers like to post nothing while shooting at me. Period. At the end you will find my proposed list of inactives.
3-Townies: DONT change your vote. Again if there are 2 mafias chances are they are the ones trying to sway the voting. -DONT - EVER - change your vote. If we caught a player changing the voting we lynch him next day. If we fail a lynch, whatever, we can fail. However we dont have second opinions. Im sure no green will ever disagree this.
4- We start using DL NOW: We dont have time. We are screwed. Tomorrow 6 more will fall. Please as i asked before to save them because they were our last resource: this is the last time to use them. Vote for DL. In the worst case we are using DL on Lordweird and Qatol tomorrow (assuming that Quickstriker is lynched today). If we have a 10% chance of winning lets take it. Double LYNCH tomorrow.
5-I will propose a small madic list before the night comes: As we cant trust Qatol we have to trust someone, i will try my best to come with a list that makes sense and it will be small enough to protect some players. Note that i cant voice for theyr inocence but at least i will propose players that look active at clue analisis and prove to be valuable for the town.
6- Vigilantes: If there are any of you still alive with shots, go pick an inactive that has clue related to him. Viging Ace last time was idiot (I already posted why when I asked to not do it). Force mafia to come out.
7- DTs: again if any, dont trust anyone. Do your job. Rolecheck 3 times and then post your results. We dont have time to wait for clues more than 3 nights, you are in the shooting gallery as well.
8- Veterans and townies: I know this game is a pain at this stage and almost nothing can be done to assure a win. However stay as active as you can and vote. Thats all im asking for. Dont give up yet, i dont ask for clue analisis or to do stupids infiltrations: that only creates more chaos where we are. Post your opinion shortly and vote, nothing more nothing less. If you want to clue analize: you are welcome but make it spoilered and at the end make a summary of WHO and WHY is mafia clue wise. Nothing can be more auto devastating that a clue analisis that says: "this can be related to this other thing but i dont know who is related to this." This type of clue analisis is trash, State clearly who and why in the end (ouside the spoilers).
1- Qatol starts voting as a single townie.
2- We lynch inactives clue wise.
3- We dont change our votes ever
4- We start using Double Lynch until the number of mafia gets down significally
5- Medic list is no longer managed by Qatol.
6- Vigilantes: send hits tonight to inactives clue wise.
7- DTs: work alone until you made your investigations
8- Townies and veterans: vote and put your opinions. If you make clue analisis use the procedure.
Please as a proof of your town allignment make a post saying:
I sign Malongos declaration.
This way at least we will know if its worthly to keep the game going. Thanks.
What the hell malongo?
Quick question: Why are we voting for 3clipse when all we have are clues on him (and I feel one of them is hardly a clue)? The Ver voting I can understand, since, behaviorally, he's suspicious. In fact, he's third on my list. But 3clipse? We need to get two mafias today, and our evidence against JeeJee is extremely solid. This extreme bandwagoning is irrational. This apparent bandwagoning convinces me that we've lost this game already and mafia is just auto-lynching by vote now.
I sent you a PM explaining to you why I think that this move will cause us to undoubtedly lose the game. Please respond.
On May 08 2009 10:02 Qatol wrote:
btw, me trolling the thread that day was also staged. We were worried you guys would notice camlito's last 3 posts (which were all totally correct). Also, killing someone from the other family would have decreased our KP (2/3 of camlito's targets were that family). We figured I might as well take the hit. I decided to have fun with it.
That's the part where essentially all the mafia replied with long posts of their own in order to cover up the Camlito clues, right? (I mean our actions directly after Camlito's gargantuan post.)
On May 09 2009 22:10 Ace wrote:
yea like they said, even getting 2 protections right is pretty damn good. At least your instincts seemed to be in the right direction.
And as a general idea, we dont need a town circle to win. You just need to know how to roleclaim. This doesn't mean you see some guy you think is legit and give up your role - that's generally a bad idea. You have discussions or whatever, hopefully public, and when you are certain there is no way the person can be mafia then maybe you roleclaim.
As for balance, this game was balanced. The 2 Mafia would have eventually had to kill each other at some point but the game just ended because of how lopsided it was looking. If the town had managed to kill even 2 more mafia no one would be complaining about balance. From the Mafia point of view they somewhat have to work together if the town is on their shit or else they will both be wiped out.
Ace is absolutely right. This game was perfectly balanced. Two things killed the town: its general inactivity and its nonsensical stupidity. You guys ignored very legitimate analysis and convictions until the very end (when it was far too late). I think if Ace had explained why Qatol was mafia, Qatol might have died earlier, but the fact that he lived as long as he did really speaks loudly about the town.
On May 10 2009 03:20 Malongo wrote:
I think its clear that Malongo and Mynock share opinions in this case. For those that call this "perfect balance" lets make a small summary of the lynchs (the power of the town):
Day 1: Qatol Mayor, Inerpinept lynched.
Day 2: Multiple discussion, 3 people to lych nobody mafia, versatile lynched.
Day 3: Qatol get away saving his ass, Quickstriker lunched.
Day 4: Qatol annihilated.
Day 5: Town gets 2 mafia, inactivity kills town, mafia sway the votes GG.
I mean wheres the balance? Even with full town activity day 5 mafia could have easily sway the lynch, and in that point numbers were like 25 or so townies to 9 mafia. Assuming the game is "perfectly balanced" means town has to lynch forcefully day 2 or 3, and even then i doubt the result could have change. Lets suppose Qatol lynched day 3, then day 4 what? monoxide? quickstriker? we would have come to day 5 in exaclty the same position AT BEST with an extra mafia lynched. I really think calling the game balanced is nonsense, mafia won i have no trouble about that, they played well and the town bad. However this game was not balanced. Period.
Lol. Please. The game was perfectly balanced. Mynock, just so you know, we weren't sure with which rules we were playing either, at least not initially. When LTT began working with the mafia, we didn't know what his objectives were. Although we had information (which we're supposed to have), we were still vague on some of them. If you asked him 55 times, did you think he would tell you the 6th time if he didn't tell you the 5th time? Clearly he didn't see an issue with that. You should have used that to your advantage instead of simply saying, "This is now impossible."
And that wasn't simply the reason you guys lost. We could have been very well at a deficit. You could have won with ease. First, you had the election of Qatol. Really? The voting was unanimous. Did this not strike anyone in the town as far too suspicious (suspicious enough to switch the votes)? REALLY? Not only did you elect a mafia mayor but you also immediately started out with -1 townies. Malongo, I really don't think you understand what I mean when I say perfectly balanced. Theoretically this game was perfectly balanced, and we would have lost had the town not played so stupidly (although I'm willing to give mafia a lot of credit, since we did cover up any good posts fairly well).
Nighttime. We get two DTs. This may or may not have happened with luck, but with their behavior/pms conspicuously revealing them as DTs, eclipse and Lucas deduced that they were DTs. Know what this shows me? Town screwed up here. This wasn't an issue with the balance of the game; it was an issue with the way the town decided to play the game. It was playing a losing strategy.
Next day. Qatol should be dead by now. I mean, both malongo and Ace, almost side-by-side, revealed it to everyone. And it was just ignored. Sure we spammed our posts so that people ignore their posts, but the town ignored obvious evidence that Qatol was mafia. Do you know how ecstatic we were? There should have been NO reason for him to live, but we managed to shift blame on Versatile, and, by shifting some blame on Ace (Qatol put himself on equal footing on Ace), we got Ace killed during the night. Town screwed up twice here. Stupid moves. Twice. And you got rid of Ace. The only apparent voice of reason. We were at a HUGE advantage then, and although we didn't start with one, the town really worked hard to give us one.
Don't worry Malongo, because the town managed to screw up again. Of course, balance wasn't an issue; the sheer chaos and stupidity in the town did well to help us win. (That's not fair: Qatol switched his vote so that suspicion would be cast, and it was a smart move by him.) You guys helped us lynch Quickstriker. WHAT? Although this game clearly began balanced, at this point, victory was almost impossible for guys who refused to do anything intelligent. I mean, you played almost as poorly as you can. When we learned that Qatol would live for another day, we were baffled. By this time, we also knew the identity of a DT and medic. Because they told Qatol. Again, town screws up. One mistake after another. It just didn't end with you guys. I don't know whether we played brilliantly or whether you guys just didn't play. If this game wasn't balanced, then we must have played to perfection, because there should have been no reason for us to win in a cogent town. But this wasn't a cogent town.
We also noticed the town's inactivity. We avoided hitting dead inactives (checking post counts versus those simply avoiding the thread).
And, again, your inactivity lost it for you in the very end. This game, in theory, was perfectly balanced, I think. If the town thought, and posted their thoughts, then we stood a good chance of losing. However, Mynock raises a good point: rules should not be hidden from the players. That's just absurd. But how far different of an outcome would that have made? Would it have made the town not lynch Quickstriker, or Versatile, or vigi Ace? Hardly. And, by that time, the game really was lost. Everything we did after that was calculated (we knew that if we came into the open at a certain point, we could not lose; if we recognized we could lose, then we would have continued playing).
Saying that you guys should have had a chance at Day 5 after you missed every lynch and vigi kill except Qatol is wrong. Just wrong. Not only are you missing other realities of the game (we had killed any useful roles by that times, so you're avoiding your previous logic, so you're wrong here), but you're also forgetting the balance here for the mafia. Imagine if we've lost 5-7 mafia by this time. Totally possible. Do we have a chance? Absolutely not. I don't think you're evaluating who played better. We're certainly not. Both sides know the answer to that question. No one was debating that. I'm arguing that the game was far more balanced than you think. The fact that you refuse to accept that, and the fact that you can't see that tells me that you're still deluded about the ultimate fate of the game.
You're assessing the end result of the game and the way it was played to prove that the game was not balanced. I guess you must be blind. We're not doing that. Not us, but you. At one point, we were at a severe disadvantage. At another, we were equal. This game was perfectly balanced; however, the repetitious circumstances allowed us to take the game in our favor. I'm not gloating about our win; I'm simply trying to bring you to reality. Saying that the town ought to win after five days of utter incompetence is as absurd as insinuating that the mafia should win after five days of sheer incompetence. And, just so you know, this game did have the absolute potential to go past five days. You're wrong again. See how balanced it was? Your own idea of what makes a game balanced WOULD apply in this instance. Thanks for verifying it in your own eyes (Qatol would have been lynched earlier, Pyrr wouldn't have made himself so conspicuous, town would have thought just a little, and the mafia would have been cut in half by day three/four. And at this time, the mafia would have been at a severe disadvantage.) [And then again, this balance, in your own terms, would also be very imbalanced for the mafia. Why, that's not fair. The game could be totally decided in the town's favor by the end of Day 4? In fact, the game could have been over after night 2 should mafia have eliminated each other...DUDE...DUDE...MORE MAFIA?]
Malongo, we're not taking "it personal." At least I'm not. I just see that you're plain wrong. You have misconceptions about the balance of the game, and to protect the balance of future games, I HAVE TO point it out.
The game doesn't have to be defined in the first four or five days. No, it shouldn't. But when you guys don't make a single intelligent decision, then, hell, it better be. Otherwise, I'd consider it imbalanced against the other side. (Again, this is not a boast about the way we played the game [it's irrelevant]; it's a discussion about the perfectly symmetrical balance of the game.)
Your latest post to Ver. Re-read his post again. "If town played perfectly with qatol as mayor." Do you see that? Do you see the word "perfectly"? Now here's what you said, "All im saying is: after mafia A found mafia B there was no chance for the town. Just look at the numbers. The town should have played almost a perfect game to get a chance." Do you see how he proved you wrong? Do you see it? Huh? Do you want me to point it out? Debunked your own point and you're refusing to acknowledge that? Sure, go for it. He's not even saying you had to play the perfect game; in fact, both we and you (I really hope you know by this time...) know that you didn't have to play a perfect game. He's just pointing out the utter absurdity of your claim.
So here are responses to your questions:
1. FALSE. Absolutely wrong. With a townie in office, the town has nearly an 18% chance to catch a mafia. That's pretty darn good, actually. With a mafia in office, there's a 9.6% to get a mafia. Wow, I'm liking these odds for the town. They're certainly not 0%. I'd take them. (Of course, you'll argue that the odds should be close to 50%. If you do, don't. Just don't argue about balance if you think that.) WAIT, WHAT? EVEN IF WE ELECT A MAFIA MAYOR MAFIA CAN DIE? NO WAY DUDE, I WOULD TOTALLY TAKE THAT IF I WERE PART OF THE TOWN. WOW THIS REALLY SUCKS FOR THE MAFIA.
2. TRUE. But only one. Qatol. When it VERY EASILY COULD HAVE BEEN MORE, and that very well should have been sooner. But that's your fault. Nothing to do with the balance of the game; you guys, as a whole, were bordering on incompetence.
3. Um. Yeah. Re-read the question. That's not a question to which I can answer "TRUE or FALSE." Sorry. Only a YES or NO can suffice. Will that be good enough for you, however? I guess it'll have to do. And, so you know, the town would have absolutely stood a chance. Ver more than adequately showed that. If you had gotten us on Day 2 and vigi'd one of us on Night 2, then we were in some serious trouble. Our mafia KP would have been cut for the following nights. (It also meant you had one less person to kill, and would have saved at the least 3 people; however, with the medics having an opportunity to save more, and with the mafia having to be specific about whom they killed, medics would have lived longer, so you would have been in pretty good shape to beat -- no, cream -- us.) Yeah....
You're not replying to a wall. It seems we are. Actually, I wouldn't be presumptuous if I said, "We are," as opposed to, "It seems we are."
On May 10 2009 06:39 Incognito wrote:
If the mafias had to kill each other then maybe. But thats not the point.
Point: Everyone should know the rules.
Yeah, I feel you're right.