When will the voting thread be up?

Also, I'm probably not going to be active until really late tonight.

5:00-6:00 Dinner,
6:30-9:30 Work,
10:00-whenever Physics lab,
whenever-whenever running/shower/get ready for bed

So yeah, my schedule's pretty packed tonight...I'll see if I can bring my laptop anywhere though.

Empyrean

17037 Posts

November 03 2008 03:40 GMT

#497

Now that we know that Folca is ostensibly detective, we run into a dilemma of what to do.

1. Paramedics protect him. This would save him from normal mafia lynches, but if a suicide bomber targets him, then some paramedics die, depending on how much protection we afford him.

2. Just let him die, and hope they use the suicide bomber, thinking that we'd protect Folca. However, the mafia could anticipate this, and just use normal hits on him, in which case if we had used paramedics on him in the first place, he'd've been saved.

Anyone care to analyze this, given our imperfect information? It wouldn't be hard to specify strategy spaces and payoff functions for each side in this scenario.

Empyrean

17037 Posts

November 03 2008 04:57 GMT

#531

If we don't lynch Folca, will he have a chance to use his powers again and report them before he dies? If so, then I wouldn't advise lynching Folca. He'll die anyway, so in death he'll be vindicated. If no mafia target him to make him look suspicious, we'll all lynch him anyway. That's why I don't want to vote Folca.

As for who to lynch, I still don't know if we can yet trust Folca (or he could be a mafia roleclaiming DT but Ace is also mafia...this way, Folca gains our trust while the mafia don't lose any killing power, and Folca can direct us to kill someone important later) since he's not dead, so because of this, I wouldn't vote for Ace either.

I'll still stay with what few clues we have and vote to lynch decafchicken.

I vote to lynch decafchicken.

Also, has the town abandoned the Mandalor style plan I suggested earlier? If not, then we should probably coordinate first and second suspects.

Also, when will Chuiu compile the vote list?

Empyrean

17037 Posts

November 03 2008 05:13 GMT

#541

On November 03 2008 14:09 Alventenie wrote:

Show nested quote +

No, you LOSE information by killing him now. Think, if you kill him now and he is blue, you lose another role check, or list check, and you are killing him for the mafia, as they want us to do. That is worst case scenario. We lose tons of information by lynching him. The 2 lists is moot because we can vote for any 2 people and both lists can be checked.

If he is mafia, we gain NOTHING, because we are going to lynch him tomorrow if he is alive anyway, therefore it doesn't matter if he is mafia and we kill him now, their kill count for tonight is still 5, whether he is alive or dead.

If you cant see that lynching him tonight is a bad idea, then you don't realize what him being alive will make the mafia do. They will have to kill him (which means they waste a kill and free up a lynch for us as well as sure fire kill Ace as mafia), or let him live, in which case we will just frag him tomorrow, after he has used another ability (if he is a detective)

Exactly what I wanted to post. Which is why I think everyone at the point should just vote for decafchicken. And after that, move on to either Ace or Folca.

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17037 Posts

November 03 2008 05:24 GMT

#546

On November 03 2008 14:23 decafchicken wrote:

Show nested quote +

No, dont vote decaf T_T

Whatever being a townie is no fun anyways

Which is why you don't want the fun of being mafia to end ;D

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17037 Posts

November 03 2008 05:29 GMT

#550

On November 03 2008 14:25 decafchicken wrote:

Show nested quote +

And to think i helped you make maps once...now you're trying to kill me ;-(

I know

I still heart you decaf!

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17037 Posts

November 03 2008 05:46 GMT

#561

Honestly, at this point, we gain most by voting decafchicken, then voting tomorrow on one of the guaranteed mafia, Ace or Folca, depending on night action. By doing this, we maximize Folca's utility if he is detective, and have a guaranteed mafia in Ace, and a dead mafia (likely) in decafchicken. If not, then we'll have the same scenario (except less information from a detective) since we'll vote to lynch Ace and decafchicken anyway (if Folca turns DT in his death).

EDIT: So everyone who didn't vote for decafchicken or Folca, please vote for decafchicken. It makes it easier for the DTs to do their jobs as well, as they only have to check two lists.

Empyrean

17037 Posts

November 03 2008 05:51 GMT

#563

We traded off a townie life for more information by a detective that may lead to more mafia deaths.

Empyrean

17037 Posts

November 03 2008 06:01 GMT

#571

If decaf flips green and Folca is DT, then we traded a green life for more information supplied by the detective.

If Folca flips red, we'll know we can actually trust you (kind of...he could have accused you just to build trust in you, knowing that being accused by a known mafia would lead some people to assume you're town).

Except it's more likely that decaf is mafia than Folca is based on what we have, so that's why I'm voting to lynch decaf.

Additionally, if we kill decaf and he is red, we will likely vote to lynch Ace instead of Folca next, since Ace is so sedulously defending decaf in the rare case the mafia don't target Folca and we have to choose between him and Ace.

Empyrean

17037 Posts

November 03 2008 06:15 GMT

#581

On November 03 2008 15:13 Jimtudor wrote:
So in the worst case scenario, where decaf flips green, and folca flips red. Would town have been better off voting for folca tonight.

No, mafia hit power stays the same.

And @Ace, I see your point, though I'd honestly like to keep you alive even if you were mafia, since you actually contribute a lot to the town.

I change my vote. I vote to lynch Ace.

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17037 Posts

November 03 2008 14:14 GMT

#636

The reason why no DTs have stepped forward saying that decaf is mafia is that they know there is a likely chance that he is mafia and they don't want to risk their own lives to say something the town already knows.

Empyrean

17037 Posts

November 03 2008 14:42 GMT

#643

Haha, I'm in history lecture right now

Anyway, I think it's better to lynch decaf than Folca because in the case that neither of them are mafia, if we lynch decaf, we only lynch a green whereas if we lynch Folca, we lynch a blue.

EDIT: Not to mention that at least we have some clues to work off of for decaf but still no clues for Folca. As you put it,

"Have you a found a clue that points to [Folca]? no"

Empyrean

17037 Posts

November 03 2008 14:58 GMT

#646

On November 03 2008 23:46 Ace wrote:
Thats not what I wrote. I wrote have you found a clue that points to me.

Some people have found a clue which could possibly be applied to you.

No one has found a clue which could possibly be applied to Folca.

Empyrean

17037 Posts

November 03 2008 17:25 GMT

#681

I think mafia know that one mafia life is worth less than one more DT check, since at this point, it doesn't hurt their hit number.

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17037 Posts

November 03 2008 17:59 GMT

#697

Haha :/

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17037 Posts

November 03 2008 18:38 GMT

#701

When will voting end, and could we have an updated list? I may decide to change my vote (again...sorry

Empyrean

17037 Posts

November 03 2008 19:21 GMT

#705

It's no way worth it to trade a detective for a mafia member.

Empyrean

17037 Posts

November 03 2008 20:12 GMT

#710

We don't want two detectives dead, do we?

Common sense.

Empyrean

17037 Posts

November 03 2008 20:20 GMT

#713

They probably shouldn't protect any publicly proclaimed detectives because of the fear of the Suicide Bomber.

EDIT: And even if they do, it's extremely risky.

Empyrean

17037 Posts

November 03 2008 22:53 GMT

#721

If Folca is still in the lead, I would recommend everyone who voted for the third place candidate right now to switch to the second place candidate to ensure that we don't vote to lynch Folca yet.