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(Note: I'm not playing.)
I can see the day post now:
Ace sat silent in his study. With his bodyguard numbers dwindling, he knew tonight would be his last night on Earth. He had done his best to pass his wisdom and knowledge on to the townspeople, and now nothing remained but to contemplate the meaning of life and his existence. ...
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On July 08 2008 21:54 araav wrote: Bill, at least you could ban Showtime - that could be a great contribution I wish.
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Oh shit, I go to a tournament and forget about TL Mafia for a bit, then I come back and suddenly 1999999981 days have passed.
It's good to see qrs has basically done what I wanted to do originally, i.e. assemble the evidence that many people had likely forgotten about. It's also ironic that in the past he was almost constantly arguing with Ace and then with the later clue-analysers, but now he is our best one.
Although Wysp / his associate pointed the finger at ahrara_, qrs's analysis trumps their reputation, imo. To verify it, I looked to see how many known mafia voted for Ace in the election. There was only one: Mandalor. Furthermore, he practically got himself lynched by claiming the Detective role, then went on to say:
On March 24 2008 06:52 Mandalor wrote: Hey I voted for Ace as well! lol Anyway, if he was the one and only mafioso to vote for Ace then I wouldn't be surprised. So I'll go with qrs and vote for infun-whatever.
ydg: Are you sure that Mandalor list isn't one of the lists that was wrong? Where did you find it, and can you search further ahead in the topic to see if it was later taken back?
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On July 17 2008 14:43 Chuiu wrote: Ha ha funny. D:
EDIT: Oh yeah, no new players today and I will be mostly AWOL the 17th while I celebrate being born for the umpteenth time. Woah, you've been born more than once?
Happy Birthday!
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On July 19 2008 01:17 ydg wrote: I still think we should lynch CDRdude.
If iNfuNdiBuLuM is green, then we have no new info, except that the Showtime list is reduced.
If iNfuNdiBuLuM is red, then we know that CDRdude is green and the rest of the Mandalor list is green.
However;
If CDRdude is green, then we know that the people on the Mandalor list but not on the Showtime list are green.
If CDRdude is red, then we know that of the people on the Mandalor list but not on the Showtime list, one is mafia, which reduces the list.
Thus, we only get good information if iNfuNdiBuLuM turns red, while if CDRdude turns either red or green, we get information. imo the voting patterns clue holds far more weight than this strategic benefit. This is because the clue makes it very unlikely that CDRdude is red and infun is green.
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On July 19 2008 01:50 CDRdude wrote:Show nested quote +On July 19 2008 01:17 ydg wrote: I still think we should lynch CDRdude.
If iNfuNdiBuLuM is green, then we have no new info, except that the Showtime list is reduced.
If iNfuNdiBuLuM is red, then we know that CDRdude is green and the rest of the Mandalor list is green.
However;
If CDRdude is green, then we know that the people on the Mandalor list but not on the Showtime list are green.
If CDRdude is red, then we know that of the people on the Mandalor list but not on the Showtime list, one is mafia, which reduces the list.
Thus, we only get good information if iNfuNdiBuLuM turns red, while if CDRdude turns either red or green, we get information. You bring up a really good point. Honestly, you've almost convinced me to lynch CDRdude, but it's against the rules for me to vote for that guy. Random fact: in a previous mafia game on StarEdit.net, it used to be to be legal to vote for yourself to be lynched. However, this rule was changed after a game where the vote was tied between a mafioso and a towny, and both would have been lynched in that case (because of their rule for handling ties), but then AT THE LAST MOMENT the towny VOTES FOR HIMSELF and saves the mafioso! His reasoning: he didn't think the mafioso guy was mafia, so he wanted to save him.
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On July 19 2008 02:38 ahrara_ wrote: What the hell? I made a post here with some analysis on infundiblum and it never showed up. Well basically what I said was that infundiblum's defense of why he voted for randombum was ripped off other people's posts... mine included.
Wysp is right tho. I am mafia =) Uh... what?
Edit: apparently you used to have a profile pic before, judging from the "TLMafia alive users" blog. What happened to it?
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Anyway, one thing that troubles me is that we can't pin any of the clues to iNfuNdiBuLuM's name (which means a funnel-shaped organ in the body) or his profile (a guy wearing a viking hat with a propeller on top).
Based on the clues that qrs posted, here are the general traits of each mafioso:
Mr. Orange: Almost always cuts the phone lines of his victim.
Mr. Blue: Always kills people by stabbing them (e.g. with an umbrella tip on Day 7), shredding them (e.g. in a car shredder on Day 11), or generally cutting them up.
Mr Blonde: Has great speed and agility. Was even hanging from the ceiling on Day 2.
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On June 11 2008 13:39 ahrara_ wrote: when I am the last mafia lynched I am going to laugh
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So I'm going through the non-Mandalor list to see if I can match anyone up with the profiles for the remaining mafia.
The TLMafia alive users blog has been very helpful. qrs's list of clues for the remaining mafia has also been a great asset.
Also, recall Plexa's guide to Mafia clue analysis. He stated very clearly that exactly one aspect of a mafioso is used to generate the clues for them! E.g. if someone's profile pic is used to generate clues, then their name, quote, etc. will be ignored.
HotZhot + Show Spoiler + - Photo shows an animal or wolf-like creature. The creature looks like it'd be a good fit for someone who is very fast and agile, like Mr. Blonde, and who could potentially hang off of a ceiling (Day 2). In addition, Mr. Blonde often appears out of nowhere (e.g. Day 1, Day 2, Day 17) which would be easier if he were mostly-black, as is the character in HotZhot's photo. On Day 2, Mr. Blonde hides in darkness and isn't visible until the lights are turned on, which again makes sense if he is black. - Ignoring other attributes since his photo seems like the best evidence against him, by far. - Voted for nemy on Day 18.
Dr.Dragoon + Show Spoiler + - No pic or public profile. - Quote seems irrelevant. - "Dragoon is the traditional name for a soldier trained to fight on foot but who transports himself on horseback." (from Wikipedia) Doesn't seem to fit any of the clues.
CDRdude + Show Spoiler + - No photo and no public profile. - Quote talks about a lurker so he can possibly be linked to Mr. Blue for some of the same reasons as jtan and DTDominion (see below). However, only jtan can be linked to the attack-dodging aspect of Mr. Blue's clues.
Fen: deceased.
Puosu + Show Spoiler +- No photo and no quote. - Public profile shows ,.-'´^`'-,.,.-'´^`'-,.,.-'´^`'-,. which IIRC someone long ago mentioned might be related to Mr. Blue's chainsaws and buzzsaws. However, it doesn't seem to fit Day 7 when Mr. Blue stabbed with an umbrella tip instead. - Definition of name seems unhelpful. Nothing inspiring comes up after a Google Image search, either.
KF91 + Show Spoiler + - No photo or public profile. - Quote seems useless. - Google Image search for name turns up pictures of hard disks. Only possible link seems to be "91" being similar to "911" and Mr. Orange's phoneline-cutting to prevent people from dialing 911. - Voted for nemy on Day 18.
MasterOfChaos: deceased.
Kuja900 + Show Spoiler + - No photo and no public profile. - Quote seems useless. - Name "Kuja900" turns up nothing, however "Kuja" is a villian from FF9. His appearance might fit Mr. Blonde's speed and agility, but it's a stretch, and HotZhot's photo fits Mr. Blonde much much better imo.
KorvspaD + Show Spoiler +- No photo and no public profile. - Quote doesn't match any of the mafia profiles. - For his name, the best I could find was this Wikipedia page (translated from Swedish to English). Apparently there is an expression in Swedish involving the word "Korvspad" which means "clear as day". This doesn't seem to fit any of the mafia.
Ziel + Show Spoiler + - No public profile. - Quote doesn't fit any mafia. - Photo shows the ultralisk icon, which might connect Ziel with Mr. Blue and his tendency to kill his victims by cutting them up. - Ziel is evidently a German word meaning "goal" or "target", which doesn't seem to fit any mafia.
jtan + Show Spoiler + - As we all know, his photo shows marines microing against a lurker. His tie to Mr. Blue is that Mr. Blue's weapons are analogous to the lurker's spines. In addition, there is sometimes a theme of attacks being dodged or the victim getting away unscathed (e.g. Day 6, possibly Day 7, possibly Day 9) which is analogous to the marines in the photo dodging the lurker's attack. Furthermore, there are occasions where Mr. Blue cannot be seen (e.g. Day 10, possibly Day 16), analogous to the lurker being burrowed. All things considered, this is a very strong link. - Ignoring other attributes since his photo seems like the best evidence against him, by far. - Voted for nemy on Day 18.
RowdierBob + Show Spoiler + - No public profile. - Quote doesn't fit any mafia. - Photo shows a guy poking another guy in the eye, with the caption "life is pain". A very weak connection with stabbing or other painful killing. Furthermore, the mafia's kills are always going to be very painful. - Name doesn't fit any mafia. None stand out as "rowdy".
DTDominion + Show Spoiler + - No photo, quote, or public profile. - Name "DT" can be linked to some of the same things as jtan's photo, except for the attack-dodging aspect.
BuGzlToOnl + Show Spoiler + - Quote, photo, and public profile do not seem to fit any mafia. - Voted for bwdero rather than nemy, so I'm not going in-depth into his profile attributes.
Lastly, I just noticed something odd. Here is the list of people who voted for nemy on Day 18: nemy - 7 jtan - strong Mr. Blue suspect hotzhot - strong Mr. Blonde suspect kf91 - weak link to Mr. Orange via "911"
infinity21 - killed on Day 19
siz.fantasy - killed on Day 19 ahrara_ - keeps calling himself mafia for some reason iNfuNdiBuLuM - about to by lynched
Not only are 4 of our top suspects (iNfuNdiBuLuM, jtan, hotzhot, and ahrara_) on this list, but the mafia did us a favour and killed two of the people who voted for nemy! I don't understand the logic in that. Maybe it was an oversight. Maybe they want us to think the remaining people aren't mafia because the mafia wouldn't be dumb enough to narrow our choices down like that. Or maybe they just want the game to end asap as well.
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ahrara_ + Show Spoiler +- No public profile. - Removed his photo. If anyone can find out what it used to be, then that would be great. (His word isn't good enough, obviously.) - Quote says he is from Afghanistan, which doesn't fit any of the mafia. - The only link I could find relating his name to the mafia is this: a WoW profile for Ahrara.Doomhammer. Apparently this guy is a level 60 Dwarf Hunter. Potentially this could fit Mr. Blonde, but it is a long stretch.
iNfuNdiBuLuM (edit: UPDATED) + Show Spoiler +
(Something to keep in mind here is that a LOT of things can be linked to Mr. Blue's killing methods. However, only jtan's photo is linked to other aspects of Mr. Blue's clues.)
To be honest, I'm not certain iNfuNdiBuLuM will turn up red. If he does then I'll really want to know how he is associated with the remaining mafia. Maybe he changed his photo a while ago so that he wouldn't be tied to any of them?
The next time someone makes a list like araav's, they should upload each profile photo to a separate website rather than linking to the pic on TLnet (or have both). That way, we can preserve players' original photos, and see when they've been changed.
To be honest, if I were to vote SOLELY based on Night clues, my votes would be: jtan strong link to Mr. Blue hotzhot strong link to Mr. Blonde (EDIT: iNfuNdiBuLuM now has a 100x better connection with Mr. Blonde) KF91 - weak link to Mr. Orange, but it's the only link to Mr. Orange that I can think of
The trouble is, we know 1/4 on the Showtime! list is mafia. CDRdude is the only one we can pin any Night clues on so far, however the clues that can be pinned on him are linked more strongly to jtan.
Then we see that iNfuNdiBuLuM is on the Showtime! list, and on the list of voters to elect randombum, and on the list of voters to lynch nemy. So despite having no Night clues pointing to him, he's still a likely mafioso.
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Imo, the "wofl" in HotZhot's photo looks a loooot more like someone/something that would be fast and agile than the big-armed viking guy in infun's photo. Edit: I'm going to take another look at the Mr. Blonde clues, though, to see how well they fit a man who can fly.
Well, in either case, I'm sure we'll know who he was (if he turns up red) once Night 2000000000 comes to an end.
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On July 19 2008 05:56 ydg wrote: I think infun will turn green, but eh. I'm glad you agree that Hotzhot is blonde. I suggest, after we figure out which of infun/cdr/jtan is mafia that we lynch hotzhot. Also, see my suggestion about lysithea. He also voted for nemy, though he was a tad late. Just read it. His name meaning "moon of Jupiter" doesn't fit well with the mafia, imo. Apparently Lysithea comes from Greek mythology, but I could find very little info on her.
HOWEVER, his quote, ["Float like a butterfly, sting like a bee." - Muhammad Ali], kind of describes the abilities of Mr. Blonde. I think HotZhot is a better candidate, but only by a small margin.
I agree that we need to look bigger-picture at Mr. Orange's theme. i.e. it's more than just cutting phone lines. Maybe something involving silence, as you said. I disagree with the "space" theme, though.
Edit: Mr. Orange's theme might involve locking people down so that they cannot escape or call for help.
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Mr. Orange clues
Note: qrs missed a few of these in his post.
Day 3: + Show Spoiler [Mr. Orange] +Dinmsab has just put away Mandalor's file and was reviewing the clues from the previous crime scene this evening when he heard something smack his window. He stood up to investigate and peered outside to see a man hurling matter at the side of his house from the ground. The man beckoned him to come out but after inspecting his window he promptly gave him the finger and instead went to call the police. But as he was dialing he noticed the phone line had been cut. Irritated he decided to confront the man outside and end his charades. Once he got to the bottom of the stairs though he noticed two other men sitting in wait on his couch. The man on the far side introduced himself as Enigma and the closer man bowed with his hat in hand and referred to himself as California Mountain Snake. Well Dinmsab was getting really impatient at this point and demanded an explanation for what was going on. Enigma stood up and proclaimed "why we're here to rid the world of good, because we're the only ones who can". Dinmsab realized he had walked into a mafia trap, and the footsteps behind him confirmed this. Mr. Orange came down with a pair of wire clippers in hand and bashed Dinmsab on the back with them. Dinmsab used the momentum to dive forward instead of fall and regained his balance after a roll, he was standing right beside his garage door and took the opportunity to escape by going out it. [...]
Day 5: + Show Spoiler [Mr. Orange] +The majority of the people who left the building made their way towards the rest of the mafia. Meta had saw them and was running towards Mr. Orange and Black Mamba. "Why aren't you calling for help" asked Meta as he reached them. Mr. Orange shrugged and shot him in the leg. Meta fell to the ground and started screaming for help. Black Mamba was a bit alarmed and tried to quiet the man, permanently, but ended up just bruising his face from stomping his foot around. Mr. Orange finally put an end to his bellows and shot Meta in the head, ending his life.
Day 7: + Show Spoiler [Mr. Orange] +useLess was sitting at home just watching TV when he heard a strange sound from outside his window. He went over to investigate and Mr. Orange jumped right through it and almost knocked useLess down as he flew past him. He quickly turned around and had useLess in a headlock. useLess struggled to free him self and stabbed at Mr. Orange with shards of glass. Mr. Orange broke off and flinched in pain. He grabbed a few shards of glass himself and stabbed through useLess's arms with them. Then to finish him off he made long gashes into useLess and left him to bleed to death.
Day 9: + Show Spoiler [Mr. Orange] +There was no plan. Five mafia set out tonight to get revenge for those they had lost. MTF was cruising along looking for a friend he had to give a ride home for. What he found was not normal to his eyes. Two men, Eddie and Mr. Orange were holding a man to the ground with their legs and pulling as hard as they could on his arms. MTF screeched to a stop and got out to help the man but it was too late and blood gushed all over the sidewalk as ~OpZ~ was literally disarmed. He gasped in horror and turned in retreat but found Mr. Blue in his way. MTF panicked, feeling his life in serious danger, and plowed through Mr. Blue toward his car. MTF was almost there when a flying object met contact with his neck and severed his head right off.
Day 10: + Show Spoiler [Mr. Orange] +Mr. Orange had the help of Eddie as he went after Vharox. They were following behind Vharox as he was leaving a bar late at night. Once Vharox got his door open Eddie came from behind and grabbed him in restraint. Mr. Orange smashed an empty beer bottle over Vharox's head and it shattered into pieces and made Vharox flinch back in pain. He broke free of Eddie and charged into Mr. Orange knocking him on his side. Eddie tried to restrain Vharox again but had no luck as he fought him back. Vharox started inching his way to his cell phone to call the cops when Mr. Orange was back on his feet this time with a more lethal weapon. He stabbed Vharox in the arm with the beer bottle and then again in the chest. Vharox fell to the ground and Mr. Orange finished him off with a few more well placed stabs.
Day 13: + Show Spoiler [Mr. Orange] +Losing two members that day the mafia decided to pull all the stops and hit the town where it mattered. They were through messing around and Mr. Orange, Eddie, and Mr. Blonde were about to prove that by taking out Fanatacist and Ace once and for all. Ace and Fanatacist were sitting at a desk going over detective files trying to find the remaining few mafia when the three barged into the room. Ace quickly grabbed the phone to call for backup but it was too late as Mr. Orange had landed a dagger right on the phone line cutting him off. Mr. Blonde shot across the room and grabbed all the notes dumping them into a trash bin nearby. He lit a match and set the whole thing on fire hoping this was the last copy the town had to go off. Mr. Orange, Mr. Blonde and Eddie all got out pistols and fired round after round at Ace and Fanatacist who were helpless to stop them. Eddie went up to Ace and he was terrified as Eddie finished him off but firing one last round into his head.
Day 16: + Show Spoiler [Mr. Orange] +Mr. Orange had just finished cutting off unsoundlogics house from the rest of the world when unsoundlogic came out the back door and spotted him. He ran back in and tried every phone in the house but they were all dead. Mr. Orange followed in and cornered unsoundlogic with a knife in hand. Maybe unsoundlogic didn't have anymore fight in him after surviving so many attempts, maybe he felt he was no match, but in the end he put up no fight and just let Mr. Orange stab him down.
Day 17: + Show Spoiler [Mr. Orange] +Mr. Orange always thought out odd ways of killing his targets, attempting to stray from the dullness of his associates. And he planned on acting on this now stronger than ever desire by attempting to kill his target with fireworks. Scorch seemed the best for this opportunity he thought, so he set about waterproofing several rather potent explosives for the job. Once his target was sleeping Mr. Orange made his move, he injected a sedative to keep Scorch asleep while he worked on fireworks into every possible orifice of Scorch's body. Unrolling the long fuse he drug the body in the middle of the street, lit it, and like a little kid ran off to safety to watch in awe. Scorch's body was practically paper at the mercy of these overzealous fireworks as they tore him apart from several points. Many people missed out on a great show.
Day 18: + Show Spoiler [Mr. Orange] +Blonde. Blue. Orange. Cottonmouth. These names rang through the heads of every towns person. Many frantically tried to connect them with individuals within their community, many tried to connect them with neighbors. The names conveyed themes. One was a theme of panic. One of haste and arrogance. One of determination and humor. And one of a hidden agenda. Though the town had been making great progress in evicting the mafia from their once peaceful and flourishing town this evening they felt a sharp fear of pain with uncertainty of the remaining criminals.
Within the first couple hours of the night the mafia had all made their move. Amber[LighT] had died first from sharp blades that tore at his skin. Pangolin suffocated in his sleep with no chance to even cry for help. And finally ZBiR had taken a sharp dive down a cliff which he never recalled scaling into the ground.
Day 20: + Show Spoiler [Mr. Orange] +Mr. Orange wanted to be a little more cautious but since Mr. Blonde had awoken the neighborhood to his presence he had to act quickly. He made sure all forms of escape were closed off as he made his way to his victim for the night. MasterOfChaos was at his window peering outward when Mr. Orange entered in the room. MasterOfChaos turned quickly around to see Mr. Orange right before he quickly unloaded several rounds into MasterOfChaos's body.
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Mr. Orange, continued
Mr. Orange's theme of the person being unable to call for help is the most prominent. In addition to phone lines being cut, preventing people from calling the police or calling for help, on Day 5 Meta says "Why aren't you calling for help?" and on Day 18 Pangolin had "no chance to even cry for help".
However, on some days (7, 9, 10, 17, and 20) this theme is entirely absent. These will be the decisive days. Matching the calling-for-help clues to someone is good, but matching the clues on the other days to them will be the final nails in the coffin.
As a start, I'll have to contradict myself when I cited one of Plexa's guidelines, but since KF91's name doesn't give much useful material besides "911", perhaps Chuiu made an exception and generated a couple of clues from his quote as well. KF91's quote is "That was weird... O.o"
On Day 17, Mr. Orange decided to use an "odd" way to kill Scorch (the fireworks). And on Day 7, useLess "heard a strange sound". These can be linked to KF91's quote.
This leaves Day[9], Day 10, and Day 20 to be linked to KF91, since all the calling-for-help clues can be linked to his name being similar to "911", the number you'd dial to call for help. If we can just link KF91 to the clues on these days, then I will be confident that he is Mr. Orange.
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Dead people: I know you're trying to be funny, but please stop posting in this topic. Let's try to keep all of the posts relevant to our investigations and clue analyses, so that semi-active players won't feel overwhelmed by the quantity of useless posts and can find the most important information very easily.
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On July 20 2008 05:57 ydg wrote: I like the "cutting off from 911," since it's 91 and not 911. ... That actually makes sense ... That actually makes a LOT of sense!
I'm not sure whether it's a coincidence or whether you can read Chuiu's mind! :O
Edit: the more I think about what you just said, the more I'm awe-struck, like "... wow, that's fucking genius". O_O I think if we can discover a really clever interpretation of "KF" like the one you just found for "91", then we'll have KF91 = Mr. Orange set in stone. I'll bet the clues in days 9, 10, and 20 are somehow related to "KF". Somehow...
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On July 20 2008 05:57 ydg wrote: If he turns green though..we'll just see what happens. If infun turns green, I will be mentally-defeated from this Mafia game. :S
It'd be like one of those moments where your entire understanding of something (life, nature, etc.) is suddenly proven wrong, and you're left wondering how you can ever trust yourself again.
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Maybe if we look at it like this: let's pretend we're Chuiu, and we need to generate some clues for our Mafia game. We're given the name "KF91" (or just "KF"). How do we generate clues for this person?
Edit: reading the post above this one now... Edit 2: actually, going for dinner, then reading it...
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Okay I lied: I was so eager that I looked at the clues despite my hunger. The Potassium Floride didn't seem like a good lead unfortunately, but I noticed I made some oversights in my earlier clue analyses.
ONLY DAY 20 REMAINS TO BE LINKED TO KF91
Earlier I mentioned that days 7, 9, 10, 17, and 20 were giving me trouble. For the rest, I had found links to KF91 based on the theme of preventing people from "calling for help", or as ydg elegantly put it, "cutting off from 911".
Then I mentioned two of these days can be linked to KF91's quote ("That was weird"). Actually, THREE of these days can be linked to the quote: Day 7: "useLess was sitting at home just watching TV when he heard a strange sound from outside his window." Day 9: "What he found was not normal to his eyes." Day 17: "Mr. Orange always thought out odd ways of killing his targets"
Finally, on Day 10 it says, "Vharox started inching his way to his cell phone to call the cops when Mr. Orange was back on his feet this time with a more lethal weapon." So Mr. Orange does indeed cut Vharox off from 911.
This leaves Day 20 as the only outstanding day where the themes "cut-off from 911" and "that was weird" are not present as far as I can tell. So we need to either figure out how one of these themes is present in that clue, or find some other way to link KF91 to it.
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On July 20 2008 06:44 ydg wrote: What doesn't make sense is how, if he wanted to act quickly, why did he make sure all exits were sealed off? Also, if he went in and shot him and MasterOfChaos didn't have a chance, why did he want to seal off exits? That occurred to me, too. I didn't think it was strange enough to be a clue, but if you noticed it as well then it might be a clue after all.
If it is a clue, then I think it is linked to KF91's quote: "That was weird"
I agree with your latest post. The infun = green stuff is much less certain than the infun = red stuff, imo. But I'm not worried about it, because I'm so confident (probably over-confident!) he is Mr. Blonde.
If infunidibulum turns green, Mafia won't have to kill me: I'll kill myself.
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Wow, I'm surprised: iNfuNdiBuLuM disappeared before we could hang him! Almost as if by magic.
THE BELL TOLLS FOR THEE, MAFIA! We know who you are! Surrender now and our magician won't send you to the end of time!
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On July 20 2008 15:33 ydg wrote: A problem though. I think infun was the last active mafia, since jtan and kf91, the two prospects for mafia, haven't really been active.
So .. ? Also, if mafia hits all vets, and they all live, are there clues? Town has this in the bag. First we lynch KF91, then we lynch jtan, and it's game over.
Currently IMO we should lynch KF91 first, because I feel like we've pretty much tied him down to Mr. Orange 100%. jtan we have yet to finalize, but we should do so before Day 21 because we'll probably be dead by then.
Also, we should make a post summarizing why iNfuNdiBuLuM, KF91, and jtan are Mr. Blonde, Mr. Orange, and Mr. Blue, respectively, then PM all the remaining townspeople and direct them to that post, asking them to vote for KF91 and jtan -- in that order, NO SPLIT VOTING -- based on those clues. Again, this has to be done before Day 21.
Then the game will be all but over.
PS: If the mafia did that then I believe there would be no clues, meaning we wouldn't be able to confirm that iNfuNdiBuLuM = Mr. Blonde. We shouldn't give them any ideas, but at this stage it doesn't really matter.
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On July 20 2008 15:33 ydg wrote: EDIT: Wait, nevermind, KF91 came out of his silence to vote for infun, as his only post in the week! Maybe he's active. I give him a thumbs up for effort. But we're fully confident he's Mr. Orange and him suddenly voting for a mafioso (as opposed to when he voted for nemy, who ended up just 1 vote over bwdero) is not going to deter us.
jtan is also at least semi-active, by the way, since he voted for nemy over bwdero, too.
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Currently, I have 95% confidence that KF91 = Mr. Orange, and 75% confidence that jtan = Mr. Blue. But that's only because we haven't been as meticulous with jtan's clue analysis compared to KF91's. I'm quite certain that once we take that extra step, my confidence in him being mafia will increase to 95% as well.
In the worst case scenario, if either KF91 or jtan turns up green, then we should lynch HotZhot. Recall the list of people who voted for nemy:
jtan hotzhot kf91
infinity21
siz.fantasy ahrara_
iNfuNdiBuLuM
Since nemy was lynched with a vote count of 7 to 6 (vs bwdero, who really was mafia), we can be all but certain that the remaining 3 mafia voted for nemy. If we cross-reference this list with the list of remaining mafia candidates from the non-Mandalor list, we get:
jtan hotzhot kf91
Assuming all 3 mafia voted for nemy (a very likely assumption), we are certain that 2 of these 3 people are mafia.
So in just 3 more mafia days at the most, the town will be victorious.
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
IMPORTANT PREVIOUS POSTS (in chronological order)
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
jtan, I suggest you try to match the clues to either HotZhot (because we are so certain he is mafia if you aren't), Ziel (because his photo is an ultralisk), or DTDominion (DT = dark templar).
I think Ziel / DTDominion should be our "Plan C" if only one of KF91, jtan, and HotZhot turns up red.
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
Alright guys, let's wrap up this game once and for all!
Mr. Blue clues
Day 1: + Show Spoiler [Mr. Blue] +Mr. Blue got in the last word, before they finished up their little meeting, and said "Lets just hope the right mayor gets elected, that would speed things up as the town declares martial law." They all nodded in agreement, but no one knew how the elections tomorrow would turn out.
Day 6: + Show Spoiler [Mr. Blue] +Things were still not quiet. Joe, Mr. Blue, and California Mountain Snake found aZnvaLiaNce working very late this evening. They intruded into the office buildings he was at and quickly found him doing repetitive boring paperwork in his drab cubicle. Mr. Blue pulled out the secret weapon he always wanted to kill someone with, a chainsaw. He tugged on the chord to get it started and aZnvaLiaNce shot up from his seat instantly and turned around to see the three men standing at the doorway. Mr. Blue lunged toward him aiming for his chest but aZnvaLiaNce dodged to the side and screamed out in pain as the chainsaw shredded down the side of his arm. Mr. Blue went in for another attack but this time aZnvaLiaNce was quicker and dived past Mr. Blue as he broke the chain of the saw on the metal part of the cubicle wall. Joe gave Mr. Blue a thumbs up for effort as he grabbed and held onto aZnvaLiaNce from behind. Joe kept a tight grip as California Mountain Snake took out his own weapon of choice. He sliced clean through aZnvaLiaNce in his chest, his gut, his arms and legs and pretty soon aZnvaLiaNce was a bloody mess, and they left him there to bleed out and die knowing he couldn't do a thing to save himself in the condition he was in.
Day 7: + Show Spoiler [Mr. Blue] +Mr. Blue was first up, and he was outside the house of fusionsdf. He noticed him in the living room and decided to try to sneak in from the back. All windows locked he tried the back door. When he was left with no other option he decided to kick in the door which alerted fusionsdf. He ran to the back of his house to see Mr. Blue coming in. fusionsdf knew exactly what was going on and grabbed an umbrella that was sitting by the door. He stabbed at Mr. Blue and flailed at him trying to fight him off but Mr. Blue evaded the blows and grabbed hold of the umbrella and yanked it out of fusionsdf's hands. He broke the handle hitting fusionsdf over the head with it and discarded it. fusionsdf dived forward and tackled Mr. Blue to the ground but Mr. Blue shoved him to the side and quickly got up. He grabbed up the umbrella again and stabbed down at fusionsdf. The tip was enough to do severe damage to fusionsdf, and he stabbed through his chest as if it were nothing. Pretty soon fusionsdf was dead from the beating.
Day 9: + Show Spoiler [Mr. Blue] +There was no plan. Five mafia set out tonight to get revenge for those they had lost. MTF was cruising along looking for a friend he had to give a ride home for. What he found was not normal to his eyes. Two men, Eddie and Mr. Orange were holding a man to the ground with their legs and pulling as hard as they could on his arms. MTF screeched to a stop and got out to help the man but it was too late and blood gushed all over the sidewalk as ~OpZ~ was literally disarmed. He gasped in horror and turned in retreat but found Mr. Blue in his way. MTF panicked, feeling his life in serious danger, and plowed through Mr. Blue toward his car. MTF was almost there when a flying object met contact with his neck and severed his head right off.
Day 10: + Show Spoiler [Mr. Blue] +smurfingchobo was the last the mafia were after that night. He let his dogs out before going to bed and they started barking at something in the yard. Neither smurfingchobo nor the dogs could see who it was but they all heard him moving about. The barking came to a stop as blades met their mark on each dogs head killing them all. smurfingchobo took a few steps closer to see one of his dogs decapitated from Mr. Blue's blades when he soon met the same fate as they had.
Day 11: + Show Spoiler [Mr. Blue] +The last victim of the night was in the same area as the first. Mr. Blue heard from California Mountain Snake about the white vans and killing off a medic so he decided to go in for his own kill. He quickly found HeRoS)Pink sitting alone in his van just listening to the radio. Mr. Blue was driving a rather over sized excavator and he grabbed the van from the front to the back and pinned HeRoS)Pink in place as he carried the vehicle to the town dump. HeRoS)Pink was helpless and couldn't move an inch the whole time as Mr. Blue dropped his van into a car shredder. Pretty soon HeRoS)Pink and his van were in tiny pieces.
Day 16: (probably applies to Mr. Blue) + Show Spoiler [no name] +rpf on the other hand was expecting someone, he felt the danger to his life for days and slept very little at night keeping alert and defensive. But what he didn't expect was someone to kill him without even setting foot in his home. A giant buzzsaw cut in from the side of his house and tore his body apart from the behind. It was overkill, but the mafia were sick and tired of wasting hits on people like rpf.
Day 18: + Show Spoiler [Mr. Blue] +Blonde. Blue. Orange. Cottonmouth. These names rang through the heads of every towns person. Many frantically tried to connect them with individuals within their community, many tried to connect them with neighbors. The names conveyed themes. One was a theme of panic. One of haste and arrogance. One of determination and humor. And one of a hidden agenda. Though the town had been making great progress in evicting the mafia from their once peaceful and flourishing town this evening they felt a sharp fear of pain with uncertainty of the remaining criminals.
Within the first couple hours of the night the mafia had all made their move. Amber[LighT] had died first from sharp blades that tore at his skin. Pangolin suffocated in his sleep with no chance to even cry for help. And finally ZBiR had taken a sharp dive down a cliff which he never recalled scaling into the ground.
Day 19: (could be Mr. Blonde or Mr. Blue) + Show Spoiler [no name] +Wind swiftly blew down from overhead as SiZ.Fantasy left the local 7-11 with his bright blue berry slushie in hand. Little did he know his life was in danger as he walked down the street towards his house. His soon-to-be killer jumped from roof to roof waiting for the right moment to strike. When SiZ.Fantasy accidentally dropped the lid to his drink was that moment. He bent over to pick it up, being the good little law abiding citizen he was he, but never got up because as SiZ.Fantasy was doing so a blade sliced him up like confetti.
Day 20: + Show Spoiler [Mr. Blue] +Mr. Blue didn't wish to risk getting caught either, the police undoubtedly on their way already, so he went for his stealth kill from outside the building approach. He backed his truck up to the room Fen was in and slid out a huge buzz-saw contraption. With a little alignment and some prep work he flipped a switch and it went to work. Cutting cleanly and swiftly through the wall Fen had no chance to survive or get out of its way.
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
Voting patterns of current Mr. Blue suspects
Suspects: - DTDominion: name contains "DT" - HotZhot: voted for nemy but not linked to any Mr. Blue clues yet - jtan: photo shows a lurker attacking marines which dodge out of the way - Ziel: photo shows the ultralisk icon
I've also included KF91's (Mr. Orange's) and [red]iNfuNdiBuLuM[red]'s (Mr. Blonde's) voting patterns.
+ Show Spoiler [voting patterns for all 20 days] + Day 1 (voting for mayor): DTDominion - none HotZhot - abstain iNfuNdiBuLuM - randombum jtan - none KF91 - none Ziel - ghar
Elected: Ace (30) Next highest: randombum (28)
Day 2: DTDominion - none HotZhot - abstain iNfuNdiBuLuM - Mandalor jtan - none KF91 - Hittegods Ziel - none
Lynched: Mandalor (58) Next highest: ghar (7)
Day 3 (double lynch): DTDominion - none HotZhot - abstain iNfuNdiBuLuM - ghar and Showtime! jtan - none KF91 - abstain Ziel - abstain
Lynched: wurm (35) and ghar (30) Next highest: bumatlarge (11) and Showtime! (11)
Day 4: DTDominion - none HotZhot - none iNfuNdiBuLuM - none jtan - none KF91 - abstain Ziel - none
Lynched: TranceStorm (13) Next highest: araav (3)
Day 5 (double lynch): DTDominion - none HotZhot - Siefu and Evilmonkey. iNfuNdiBuLuM - none jtan - none KF91 - none Ziel - none
Lynched: Siefu (a lot) and Evilmonkey. (a lot) Next highest: suresh0t (3)
Day 6: DTDominion - none HotZhot - none iNfuNdiBuLuM - crazie-penguin jtan - none KF91 - L Ziel - none
Lynched: crazie-penguin (21) Next highest: L (10)
Note: clazziquai and crazie-penguin also voted for L
Day 7 (double lynch): DTDominion - none HotZhot - L and Ulszz iNfuNdiBuLuM - none jtan - none KF91 - none Ziel - none
Lynched: L (34) and Ulszz (27) Next highest: suresh0t (2)
Day 8 (double lynch): DTDominion - none HotZhot - none iNfuNdiBuLuM - LoStYouRSkiLLS and ieatkids5 jtan - none KF91 - LoStYouRSkiLLS Ziel - none
Lynched: LoStYouRSkiLLS (36) and ieatkids5 (26) Next highest: clazziquai (3)
Day 9: DTDominion - none HotZhot - GeneralStan iNfuNdiBuLuM - GeneralStan jtan - none KF91 - GeneralStan Ziel - none
Lynched: GeneralStan (28) Next highest: many people (1)
Day 10 (double lynch): DTDominion - none HotZhot - DamageControl and RowdierBob iNfuNdiBuLuM - DamageControl jtan - none KF91 - DamageControl and Ninja4ever. Ziel - none
Lynched: DamageControL (24) and Unforgiven_ve (17) Next highest: Ninja4ever.(8)
Note: Unforgiven_ve, Bockit, clazziquai, BWdero, and SpiritoftheTuna all voted for Ninja4ever. Note: no one else voted for RowdierBob
Day 11: DTDominion - none HotZhot - none iNfuNdiBuLuM - none jtan - none KF91 - none Ziel - none
Lynched: clazziquai (18) Next highest: suresh0t (2) and nemy (2)
Note: BuGzlToOnl has been voting for nemy for pretty much the entire game.
Day 12 (double lynch): DTDominion - none HotZhot - none iNfuNdiBuLuM - none jtan - LTT and SpiritoftheTuna KF91 - none Ziel - none
Lynched: LTT (25) and SpiritoftheTuna (24) Next highest: 0cz3c (1) and nemy (1)
Day 13: DTDominion - none HotZhot - none iNfuNdiBuLuM - abstain jtan - randombum KF91 - randombum Ziel - none
Lynched: randombum (20) Next highest: nemy (2)
Note: the only known mafia to vote on this day was iNfuNdiBuLuM, and he explicitly abstained.
Day 14: DTDominion - none HotZhot - Bockit iNfuNdiBuLuM - none jtan - Bockit KF91 - none Ziel - none
Lynched: Bockit (12) Next highest: nemy (2)
Note: just like Day 13, the only known mafia to vote on this day was iNfuNdiBuLuM, and he explicitly abstained.
Day 15: DTDominion - none HotZhot - none iNfuNdiBuLuM - 0cz3c jtan - 0cz3c KF91 - 0cz3c Ziel - none
Lynched: 0cz3c (15) Next highest: nemy (1)
Note: suresh0t also voted for 0cz3c.
Day 16: DTDominion - none HotZhot - none iNfuNdiBuLuM - none jtan - nemy KF91 - suresh0t Ziel - none
Lynched: suresh0t (8) Next highest: nemy (4)
Note: KF91 voted after it was already 7-4 and about to move to night. Note: suresh0t also voted for nemy.
Day 17: DTDominion - none HotZhot - SoMuchBetter iNfuNdiBuLuM - str jtan - nemy KF91 - none Ziel - none
Lynched: str (7) Next highest: nemy (2)
Day 18: DTDominion - none HotZhot - nemy iNfuNdiBuLuM - nemy jtan - nemy KF91 - nemy Ziel - none
Lynched: nemy (7) Next highest: bwdero (6)
Day 19: DTDominion - none HotZhot - BuGzlToOnl iNfuNdiBuLuM - none jtan - none KF91 - none Ziel - none
Lynched: bwdero (5) Next highest: Fen (1), BuGzlToOnl (1), and KF91 (1)
Day 20: DTDominion - none HotZhot - none iNfuNdiBuLuM - jtan, then CDRdude jtan - none KF91 - iNfuNdiBuLuM Ziel - none
Lynched: iNfuNdiBuLuM (11) Next highest: CDRdude (2)
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
The first thing that jumps out is ROFL @ KF91's and iNfuNdiBuLuM's voting patterns! Talk about voting like a mafioso. In particular, look at Day 10 where 5/8 of Ninja4ever.'s votes came from known mafia, and KF91 voted for DamageControl and Ninja4ever.
I think the odds that KF91 is mafia must be like 99% or more, now. qrs and ydg, do you guys agree that we should lynch KF91 first?
Moving on, jtan's voting pattern doesn't exactly clear his name. He did vote to lynch 5 mafia, true, but they were 100% going to get lynched, anyway. Even KF91 and iNfuNdiBuLuM were voting for fellow mafia at that point.
HotZhot's voting pattern looks weird more than anything else. Somewhat incriminating, too. It definitely doesn't clear him from suspicion, but unlike jtan, he doesn't have a horde of clues pointing at him.
Lastly, DTDominion and Ziel appear to have been completely inactive for the entire game.
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
On July 21 2008 07:45 qrs wrote:You have the wrong kill for Day 19. Mr. Blue is + Show Spoiler +Wind swiftly blew down from overhead as SiZ.Fantasy left the local 7-11 with his bright blue berry slushie in hand. Little did he know his life was in danger as he walked down the street towards his house. His soon-to-be killer jumped from roof to roof waiting for the right moment to strike. When SiZ.Fantasy accidentally dropped the lid to his drink was that moment. He bent over to pick it up, being the good little law abiding citizen he was he, but never got up because as SiZ.Fantasy was doing so a blade sliced him up like confetti. The wave of stones is Cottonmouth. Anyway, it's quite clear that Mr. Blue is a lurker: Day 6: chainsaw = row of blades = lurker spines. Second attack is dodged: lurker is the only unit whose attack can be dodged. Day 7: umbrella tip = blade again. Day 9: Mr. Blue = ambushing to cut off retreat: somewhat lurker-like. Day 10: row of blades kill multiple things simultaneously: killer is not seen. Day 11: blades (of a different sort); killer not seen. Day 12: row of blades; killer not seen. Day 18: hidden agenda=not seen. Day 19: blade kill; not seen. Day 20: row of blades; killer not seen. FWIW, MoC and others noticed this theme long before there was so much evidence for it. edit: ah, I didn't see your DT theory. That would also be a good fit for blades + not seen. My assumption was that SiZ.Fantasy's killing was done by Mr. Blonde. Hopping across rooftops might mean flying, and "a blade sliced him up like confetti" sounds like what would happen if Mr. Blonde sliced you up with his propeller blade. But I agree the last part can apply to Mr. Blue as well. (Does Chuiu do "dual meaning" clues? )
I didn't follow the clues between Cottonmouth and bwdero, but thanks for letting me know. I've updated my list of clues appropriately.
Something I noticed in Mr. Blue's clues that no one has talked about yet is his recent theme of using large machinery: - Day 11: he uses "a rather over sized excavator". - Day 16: he uses "a giant buzzsaw". - Day 20: he uses "a huge buzz-saw contraption"
I think we need to find a way to link this theme to jtan (or someone else). Until then, I'm still not convinced that jtan is Mr. Blue.
Also, we need to figure this stuff out tonight. Now that everyone on the Showtime! and Mandalor lists has been proven innocent, the mafia have no reason to keep qrs alive. Furthermore, once qrs, ydg, and myself are all dead, there might be no one left to analyse the clues!
Time is running out for the mafia, but it is also running out for us...
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
qrs, you put way too much confidence in jtan = Mr. Blue. Why are you rushing this when we still have to explain why Mr. Blue used large machines, to name one clue aspect that hasn't been linked with jtan?
I'm going to look at Mr. Blue = DTDominion either now, or after my friend comes over and goes home.
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
On July 21 2008 09:51 ydg wrote: The only thing that might be a curveball is if infun wasn't Blonde but was Blue. We'll just see at Day. No, we won't "see at Day" because in all likelihood we'll be dead.
And you guys aren't listening to me -_-. How many times do I have to point out that Mr. Blue uses large machines in the later days to do his killing? That's obviously a clue. But how does it relate to jtan, or anyone? If we cannot find a link, then there's a good chance that we are WRONG.
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
Here's something to get the ball rolling: Dominion Construction http://www.dominionco.com/
Saying that's the link between large machines and DTDominion is a stretch, but it's the best we've got so far. Then again, KF91 and Mr. Orange was a stretch at first, but then ydg's clever interpretation of "91" changed everything. ydg, think you can pull out a similar feat for Mr. Blue?
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
On July 21 2008 10:10 jtan wrote: This game is not at all over, I actually think we have a great chance of loosing if the following happens:
KF91 turns green (very unlikely imo, the cut off clue is really good, but there IS always a chance) After that you will probably lynch me in some kind of desperation. In that case 2 innocents dead, and mafia gets to kill SIX townies. Take away the six that makes the bests argument in this thread and we have pretty much lost.
Therefore, this is the time to activate and try to get all the connections right, not to stop posting. Exactly.
WE CANNOT AFFORD TO GET MR BLUE WRONG! If Mr. Blue is not jtan and not DTDominion, THE TOWN WILL LOSE, because by the time they lynch jtan and DTDominion, 2 days will have passed, so 6 more townies will be dead. qrs/ydg, can either of you name more more than 6 townies who are actually analysing clues? If we're wrong and neither of those people is Mr. Blue, then the town will be left taking shots in the dark trying to find the real Mr. Blue. Hell, for all we know, the last mafioso could come in and pretend to analyse the Mr. Blue clues, or voting patterns, or whatever, and just keep misleading the town. In any case, it wouldn't take much longer for the remaining semi-active townies to die off, and then the game would be essentially over: Mafia win.
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
On July 21 2008 11:09 CDRdude wrote: So, with infuwhatever being red, does this prove my innocence? Yes, you are innocent. Now please help us determine who Mr. Blue is.
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
On July 21 2008 10:10 qrs wrote: Well, I wasn't going to post again, but since I'm directly addressed...
1) The reasons I prefer lurkers to DTs for Mr. Blue: -chainsaws and buzzsaws = rows of blades -aznvaliance dodges his attack -he often remains unseen--but not always The reasons I disagree with Mr. Blue being a lurker (or even a DT) are: 1. A lurker wouldn't drive large machines with blades, nor would a lurker use a car crusher to kill its victims. The same goes for a DT. Say all you want about the weapons looking like lurker spines or DT blades: the fact is, Mr. Blue is not a lurker and not a DT. 2. If Mr. Blue were a lurker, then there would be clues involving him coming out of the ground or something. But there are none of that sort. 3. People dodge attacks in mafia ALL THE TIME. Unless it's happening consistently, it is NOT a clue.
2) Large machinery: Don't think it's a clue, personally: -the largeness can be explained as a way for him to pick up cars, slice into houses (thus killing without being seen) -if it is a clue, we have yet to tie it to anyone, DTDominion included. edit: wrote that before bill's last post, which offers a rather strained connection to Dominion. ... Okay, honestly are you fucking stupid? No one else in this game killed their victims using giant machines. Nor in the last mafia game. Yet Mr. Blue has done it THREE TIMES. You think Chuiu is so uncreative that he HAD to use large machines to get those other clues across, three times even?
Moreover, what the fuck kind of retarded argument is "we haven't matched it to anybody therefore it's not a clue"? Again, are you fucking stupid? EVERY SINGLE CLUE IN THIS GAME WAS NOT MATCHED TO ANYONE THE FIRST TIME IT WAS DISCOVERED.
3) If jtan turns out to be innocent, we just turn around and lynch DTDominion. We lose one night. At this point, no big deal. And what if DTDominion is innocent? Town loses, that's what.
You know, for a sec it seemed like you were actually helping the town. But now you're just going back to the way you were the entire game: being a fucking retard. Fine, don't post anymore. If you're so stupid as to think that large machines is not a clue, then you'd just be holding us back, anyway.
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
2) Large machinery: Don't think it's a clue, personally: [...] -if it is a clue, we have yet to tie it to anyone, DTDominion included. I still cannot believe someone could use such an obviously flawed argument. Honestly, I have no respect for qrs, now. That is by far the stupidest thing I have read in this entire topic.
Thinking like this is exactly the reason why qrs was wrong SO MANY TIMES when we still had Ace, Plexa, etc. around. The fact that it's not matched to anyone yet means WE DO NOT KNOW WHO MR BLUE IS and we need to sit down and figure it out.
Look at how easily we matched up the clues for Mr. Blonde and Mr. Orange once we knew who they were. The fact that we CAN'T do the same for Mr. Blue means we are either missing some connection, or our suspects are flat-out wrong.
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
Alright, I've carefully read over the clues for Mr. Blue. I think you will all be interested to read what I have to say, but first, a preface.
The problem with qrs is that he is impatient: he links a handful of clues to a person, and then that's it for him: he is 100% convinced. He doesn't push for the kind of thorough, all-encompassing clue analysis that we've seen from the superior detectives in this game, such as Plexa.
There are so many more clues in those posts that qrs ignores. I point them out and he ignores them, his mind set in stone. Granted I was too harsh on him earlier: I get like that when I see people say mind-blowingly stupid things. I also said some things that I now realize were wrong. My apologies.
Without further ado, I will show you all the PROPER, THOROUGH way to connect Mr. Blue to jtan.
jtan = Mr.Blue
Mr. Blue shares an astounding number of traits with a lurker, and the situations he's involved in share several similarities with the photo in jtan's profile. qrs was on the right track but, like I said, he stopped short. There are even more connections between Mr. Blue and jtan's photo, in addition to the ones he saw.
Here is his photo. Keep it in mind while you read the clue interpretations below.
Day 1: No connections, which worries me a bit. Nevertheless...
Day 6: - "Mr. Blue pulled out the secret weapon he always wanted to kill someone with, a chainsaw." A lurker kills with an attack that tears through the enemy, not unlike a chainsaw would tear through a person. - "Mr. Blue lunged toward him aiming for his chest but aZnvaLiaNce dodged to the side and screamed out in pain as the chainsaw shredded down the side of his arm." Analogous to a marine attempting to dodge a lurker's spines, but getting caught by the edge. (I hate it when that happens.) - "Mr. Blue went in for another attack but this time aZnvaLiaNce was quicker and dived past Mr. Blue..." Now this actually matches the scene in jtan's photo, where a marine completely dodges a lurker's spines. - "...as he broke the chain of the saw on the metal part of the cubicle wall." The lurker spines in the photo end at the cliff wall.
Day 7: - "Mr. Blue was first up, and he was outside the house of fusionsdf. He noticed him in the living room and decided to try to sneak in from the back. All windows locked he tried the back door. When he was left with no other option he decided to kick in the door which alerted fusionsdf. He ran to the back of his house to see Mr. Blue coming in." This is analogous to the marines attacking the zerg expo in the photo. The expo is at the top of the main (the living room), the cliffs (the locked windows) prevent the marines from coming in any way but the ramp (the back door). In response to the invasion, zerg sends units from the expo to the ramp (fusionsdf runs to the back of his house) where they see the marines coming in (fusionsdf sees Mr. Blue coming in). - "He stabbed at Mr. Blue and flailed at him trying to fight him off but Mr. Blue evaded the blows." Another evasion scene, similar to the photo though with roles reversed. - "He broke the handle hitting fusionsdf over the head with it and discarded it. ... He grabbed up the umbrella again and stabbed down at fusionsdf. The tip was enough to do severe damage to fusionsdf, and he stabbed through his chest as if it were nothing." Lurker spines look exactly like umbrellas without their handles. They also tear straight through marines, as if the marines were nothing.
Day 9: - "He gasped in horror and turned in retreat but found Mr. Blue in his way. MTF panicked, feeling his life in serious danger, and plowed through Mr. Blue toward his car." The verb "plowed" commonly means to dig up ground, e.g. to plow a field for crops. A lurker plows the ground when it burrows. An alternative interpretation is that to run through a lurker, you would have to move through -- or "plow" through -- the ground under which it's burrowed. - "MTF was almost there when a flying object met contact with his neck and severed his head right off." Analogous to a marine running away from a lurker, but the spines travel faster and catch up to it, killing it. Not to mention the analogy with lurker spines cutting up marines and Mr. Blue cutting up his victims.
Day 10: - "smurfingchobo was the last the mafia were after that night. He let his dogs out before going to bed and they started barking at something in the yard. Neither smurfingchobo nor the dogs could see who it was but they all heard him moving about." He travels like a lurker: you can hear him moving about the ground (or in the case of a lurker, under the ground) but you cannot see him. The yard is earth that a lurker could burrow under, as well. - "The barking came to a stop as blades met their mark on each dogs head killing them all. smurfingchobo took a few steps closer to see one of his dogs decapitated from Mr. Blue's blades when he soon met the same fate as they had." Similar to a lurker sending its spines tearing through the dogs like a group of marines, killing them all, then doing the same to their owner.
Day 11: - "Mr. Blue was driving a rather over sized excavator..." An excavator is a machine that digs holes in the ground, like a lurker is a unit that digs holes in the ground. - "Pretty soon HeRoS)Pink and his van were in tiny pieces." Like how a marine is shredded to pieces by a lurker.
Day 16: - "But what he didn't expect was someone to kill him without even setting foot in his home. A giant buzzsaw cut in from the side of his house and tore his body apart from the behind." Imagine a lurker attacking a group of marines behind a supply depot wall-in. The spines go straight through the depots and tear apart the marines.
Day 18: - "Amber[LighT] had died first from sharp blades that tore at his skin." Again, like how a marine is killed by lurker spines that tear at his skin.
Day 19: - I believe the first clue here refers to Mr. Blonde, not Mr. Blue. See my iNfuNdiBuLuM = Mr. Blonde post for details. And thanks to jtan (ironically) for pointing out that "Wind swiftly blew down from overhead" links to the propeller on Mr. Blonde's head, yet another reason to believe this clue points to him and not Mr. Blue.
Day 20: - "Mr. Blue didn't wish to risk getting caught either, the police undoubtedly on their way already, so he went for his stealth kill from outside the building approach. He backed his truck up to the room Fen was in and slid out a huge buzz-saw contraption. With a little alignment and some prep work he flipped a switch and it went to work. Cutting cleanly and swiftly through the wall Fen had no chance to survive or get out of its way." The same situation as Day 16, again analogous to a lurker killing marines by attacking unimpeded through a supply depot wall-in.
Based on the overwhelming evidence above, we can comfortably conclude that jtan = Mr. Blue.
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
I will now PM all remaining townies and direct them to my above post.
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
On July 22 2008 09:15 jtan wrote:Show nested quote +On July 22 2008 08:44 Bill307 wrote:L would say there is only a 10% to 12% chance that you are Mr. Blue, jtan. Which in normal people language means 95%+. It certainly doesn't help that once the jtan-is-innocent ball got rolling, you started trying to refute everything we've deduced so far, even the links to Mr. Blonde and Mr. Orange that were all-but-airtight. That was an unexpected consequence. I legitimately did think for a while that you might not be Mr. Blue, and wasn't pretending to defend you or trying to trap you into making those posts. But, that was before I read over the clues carefully. Once I started noticing links like plowing <--> burrowing, excavator <--> lurker burrow ability, and giant buzzsaws through the walls <--> lurker spines through depot wall, I realized qrs was right after all. Oh so you cleaverly set traps for me and I walked right into them? You are quite full of yourself. I didn't, but it would've been pretty awesome if I did.
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
That's a lot easier to do when the person you're disagreeing with didn't just say they were going to abandon the game and stop posting. That was very infuriating. It was like a big "Fuck you guys: my mind's made up and I'm done."
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
On July 22 2008 10:37 qrs wrote:*sigh*. Can't you just say "I was wrong"? Nearly everything you have said in that post has been said before, by me or others (like in this summary). You added the excavator connection, and the behind-the-depot thing. Also a strained analogy between cliffs and locked windows and ramps and back doors; also an mistaken connection with a flying object (that was California Mountain Snake's metal disk). As for the 'clue' that caused you to blow your gasket in the first place, when I politely disagreed with it--it looks like you have decided that giant machinery is not the point after all. First of all, that summary is weak in my opinion. Not only is it missing a lot of clues, the style in which the clues are presented is unconvincing. I find it's much more effective to actually quote the relevant sentences, for one thing (so that people can see them right there without having to go back and look for what Chuiu wrote). It's summaries like yours that lead to mistakes like being convinced that Mr. Blonde is a fast and agile person rather than a muscular guy with a propeller on his head. The exact wording is very important. Even a verb like "plowed" can be significant, but it would easily get lost if someone paraphrased that clue.
Second, I was right in that you guys weren't paying enough attention to those large machines. That's how I came up with the excavator=burrowing clue and the lurker-attacks-through-depots clues. In contrast, it sounded like you were ready to completely ignore those parts, satisfied with saying "well he killed him with blades so that's good enough".
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
On July 22 2008 11:29 jtan wrote:Show nested quote +On July 22 2008 11:20 Bill307 wrote:Btw, jtan is soooo going to kill us for all of this. Actually you kind of deserve to die after messing up so much but never mind that It looks like none of us will survive this game, so yeah let's be friends and party this last day together Okay sure, I'll go to a party with you tonight.
Gee, I hope nothing bad happens to me while I'm out partying with jtan on Night 20!
Edit: qrs you should come party too. No hard feelings, eh?
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
That's quite a lot of determination you have, there.
But seriously, if you're going to argue that infundibulum is Mr. Blue, then you also have to compare your links to the ones between infundibulum and Mr. Blonde, and show that the links to Mr. Blue are stronger -- which I believe they are not.
Furthermore, you would have to re-analyse Mr. Blonde as being HotZhot. Now originally they fit very well together, but after so many references to Mr. Blonde as a big, strong guy, among other things that fit infundibulum a lot better than HotZhot, the connection to HotZhot is a lot weaker than it used to be.
So in addition to showing that infundibulum is more likely to be Mr. Blue than Mr. Blonde, you also have to show HotZhot is more likely to be Mr. Blonde than infundibulum is. IMO, that is not possible.
I have a suspicion that the Day post will contain neither Mr. Blonde nor Mr. Blue. In that case, we should stick to the plan under the assumption that infundibulum was Mr. Blonde. The only case where we should lynch HotZhot over jtan is if Mr. Blonde is explicitly mentioned as being alive on Day 21. And of course, if jtan turns up green then we lynch HotZhot after KF91 -- unless someone steps up to do some detective work that finds a better lynch candidate.
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
The aweesomeness of lynching the 2nd-last mafia is soured by the fact that only 5 people voted on Day 22, and one of them was KF91 himself. :S
Come on, town! Ace, Plexa, and so many others have spent a lot of time to put the town into a winning position! Don't let your deceased brethren down!
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
On July 30 2008 14:14 Meta wrote: Sometimes I wonder if it all was really worth it. Sure, there were 20 mafia amongst are 130 something brethren at the start, but was killing them really worth all this death? How will we pick up the pieces in the future with so few alive, and so few, still, active? This disaster that has struck our town, so much death, will we ever be able to move on? Over the course of three short weeks our numbers have dwindled so low, that if we win, will we really be winning? Of course you'll be "winning". Just tell all the remaining women that they've gotta help repopulate the town.
... oh wait...
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
Some major irony during that 5th infiltration:
<Ace> which would mean we got shafted by inactives Ace is talking about decaf being a successful Jack imposter due to the real Jack being inactive. But not only is decaf the real Jack, "Lenwe" actually is a successful imposter due to the real Lenwe not being active enough to cause any discrepancy.
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
Oh man, there is so much gold hidden in that one convo.
Firstly, a possible discrepancy:
<Lenwe> but then they should have sent some hits at plexa <Lenwe> he survived <Ace> I think they did <Ace> but I had prots on him
How could "Lenwe" know whether hits were sent at Plexa? I say "possible" discrepancy because maybe the mafia did hit him and LTT was just trying to act ignorant.
Next, ROFL at how "Lenwe" magically knows ALL the little subtleties in d.arkive's "taunt" before he asploded into Hittegods:
<Lenwe> look at darkives posts right before day... <Ace> 5th of november? <Lenwe> the gunpowder plot <Lenwe> as in, an explosion <Ace> I'm lost <Lenwe> http://youtube.com/watch?v::chqi8m4CEEY<Ace> d.arkive ran towards Hittegods as he was examining some photos and hit a button <Ace> ok i'll look at it <Lenwe> it's from v for vendetta <Ace> what gunpowder plot <Ace> where did you see that <Lenwe> that phrase was from the movie <Lenwe> he was dropping hints about the coming explosion <Ace> so you think something with a V is significant? <Lenwe> i doubt it, i think he was just being pompous <Lenwe> look on the previous page <Lenwe> he references michael bay <Lenwe> a movie maker who is known for having tons of explosions in his movies <Ace> i saw that <Lenwe> hrm... <Lenwe> awesome... <Lenwe> there was a commercial about that <Lenwe> Here: http://youtube.com/watch?v::jcOYZy1HcLE<Lenwe> darkive was taunting us... <Ace> i dont know tho, how does that help us <Lenwe> it doesn't It also helps d.arkive's subtle taunt get noticed, in case the town missed it.
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
Oh my god, this is hilarious! From 4th infiltration:
<Ace> i just read your pm
Oh shit. The real Lenwe is online. Scramble with vague questions!
<Ace> is that the way you wanna go with this? <Lenwe> why not <Ace> it may take a lot of time <Ace> basically if it all goes wrong, vigi kills gone <Lenwe> what other options do we have? <Ace> vote checking the trance list <Ace> HG hasnt used his powers yet <Ace> I guess we could do both though - check fusion out tonight <Ace> and then tomorrow morning check the trance list <Lenwe> hrm <Ace> issue tho <Ace> usless didnt vote <Ace> but him and aznvaliance are almost surely innocent <Ace> because the 1 mafia was found in the list of 7 <Lenwe> yeah, probably <Ace> only way one could be guilty is if another mafia jumped in the list <Ace> but I doubt it <Ace> for now we should assume both are innocent <Lenwe> yeah, sounds good <Hittegods> yo <Ace> old on HG <Ace> *hold <Ace> check your PMs again <Hittegods> will do Priceless.
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