EPTOn March 14 2024 09:22 Jealous wrote:
Did a quick dive on Palmar before I have to head out again. Based on D1 alone, I think he basically has to be town. I'll explain my thinking in the form of questions:
1. Would scum!Palmar immediately bus scum!Oats and scum!TTS practically out the gate?
2. Would scum!Palmar go along with town sentiment to elect Vivax mayor instead of what he claims is his preference, which is to lynch him for the claim?
To make an addendum to #2, if we believe what Palmar is saying about wanting to lynch Vivax for the claim, I think the only world in which scum!Palmar simply gives up and lets Vivax have the election without offering resistance is if it's scum!Palmar and scum!Vivax, and if it's scum!Vivax then it basically has to be scum!DP and they bussed TTS. So, I think this is practically impossible. Therefore, I think based on this foundation, scum!Palmar is incredibly unlikely to me at this juncture.
I'll refine further when I get back but this is what I have so far.
Quotes for reference, non-exhaustive list (he makes other posts re: Vivax running for mayor, Oats, etc):
+ Show Spoiler +
Did a quick dive on Palmar before I have to head out again. Based on D1 alone, I think he basically has to be town. I'll explain my thinking in the form of questions:
1. Would scum!Palmar immediately bus scum!Oats and scum!TTS practically out the gate?
2. Would scum!Palmar go along with town sentiment to elect Vivax mayor instead of what he claims is his preference, which is to lynch him for the claim?
To make an addendum to #2, if we believe what Palmar is saying about wanting to lynch Vivax for the claim, I think the only world in which scum!Palmar simply gives up and lets Vivax have the election without offering resistance is if it's scum!Palmar and scum!Vivax, and if it's scum!Vivax then it basically has to be scum!DP and they bussed TTS. So, I think this is practically impossible. Therefore, I think based on this foundation, scum!Palmar is incredibly unlikely to me at this juncture.
I'll refine further when I get back but this is what I have so far.
Quotes for reference, non-exhaustive list (he makes other posts re: Vivax running for mayor, Oats, etc):
+ Show Spoiler +
On March 05 2024 19:41 Palmar wrote:
So I'm going to talk about a few people now. Consider this just rambling thoughts about the thread that I'm absolutely not going to read in full. Probably gonna do this in a few parts so my reads might evolve from now until I've done the last people I want to talk about.
Oatsmaster
Both initially, and currently, the reason he's my tentative #1 lynch target is based on exactly one thing, this:
Go find that post in his filter, then read the following maybe... 20 posts? I don't think there is a single one of them where he is actually pushing to get himself elected as mayor. Ironically he scolded someone else for doing that same thing.
There really isn't much else to it. The case is simply "He said he wanted to be mayor but then none of his posting seems to point towards him actually wanting to be mayor".
It's far from lock scum case, it's mostly just a bad play regardless of alignment, but it's... maybe easier to explain as an attempt to do something bold as mafia. I'm gonna read more before I plant a vote or anything.
VisceraEyes
Part of me just wants him to be town because I'm happy VE is playing, so I admit it may be an overreaching town read.
But it's mostly a tone read. He seems to be happy to be playing the game. He said he wanted mayor and actually made a few follow up posts complaining no one was voting for him.
Also this isn't even alignment indicative but it's super good.
I have zero interest in lynching VE today.
DMB
So I haven't really read anything of hers but I just wanted to make this point.
She confuses me so much. I make something that's an obvious joke, and she jumps on it? Why? My gut is "well that's stupid and townies do stupid shit". But my meta is that she's perfectly willing to do stupid shit as mafia from last game.
She does get townie points for completely forgetting I exist in her list post though.
But yeah, I don't actually have a read on her, it's just something I noticed.
So I'm going to talk about a few people now. Consider this just rambling thoughts about the thread that I'm absolutely not going to read in full. Probably gonna do this in a few parts so my reads might evolve from now until I've done the last people I want to talk about.
Oatsmaster
Both initially, and currently, the reason he's my tentative #1 lynch target is based on exactly one thing, this:
Go find that post in his filter, then read the following maybe... 20 posts? I don't think there is a single one of them where he is actually pushing to get himself elected as mayor. Ironically he scolded someone else for doing that same thing.
There really isn't much else to it. The case is simply "He said he wanted to be mayor but then none of his posting seems to point towards him actually wanting to be mayor".
It's far from lock scum case, it's mostly just a bad play regardless of alignment, but it's... maybe easier to explain as an attempt to do something bold as mafia. I'm gonna read more before I plant a vote or anything.
VisceraEyes
Part of me just wants him to be town because I'm happy VE is playing, so I admit it may be an overreaching town read.
But it's mostly a tone read. He seems to be happy to be playing the game. He said he wanted mayor and actually made a few follow up posts complaining no one was voting for him.
Also this isn't even alignment indicative but it's super good.
I have zero interest in lynching VE today.
DMB
So I haven't really read anything of hers but I just wanted to make this point.
She confuses me so much. I make something that's an obvious joke, and she jumps on it? Why? My gut is "well that's stupid and townies do stupid shit". But my meta is that she's perfectly willing to do stupid shit as mafia from last game.
She does get townie points for completely forgetting I exist in her list post though.
But yeah, I don't actually have a read on her, it's just something I noticed.
On March 05 2024 10:07 Palmar wrote:
If I was less lazy I would basically force everyone into either voting vivax mayor or voting to lynch him. Fencesitting on a blue claim is just bad.
I haven’t read his filter but my instinct is to mayor Vivax.
If I was less lazy I would basically force everyone into either voting vivax mayor or voting to lynch him. Fencesitting on a blue claim is just bad.
I haven’t read his filter but my instinct is to mayor Vivax.
On March 05 2024 22:47 Palmar wrote:
You don't have to, I'm not your mom. But it's still stupid.
Like it or not, by claiming Vivax made the game about himself.
The objectively correct play as town here is to lynch him. That is literally the best play. But we've decided not to do that and I kinda think that's the right call. Essentially we assume Vivax is bad town and not mafia. If that's the case he has a very, very strong power role and we think he's town, so we just make him mayor.
I really can't think of why we would not do one or the other if we're playing logically.
We can always force him to kill whoever we want dead, he's not without responsibility as mayor.
You don't have to, I'm not your mom. But it's still stupid.
Like it or not, by claiming Vivax made the game about himself.
The objectively correct play as town here is to lynch him. That is literally the best play. But we've decided not to do that and I kinda think that's the right call. Essentially we assume Vivax is bad town and not mafia. If that's the case he has a very, very strong power role and we think he's town, so we just make him mayor.
I really can't think of why we would not do one or the other if we're playing logically.
We can always force him to kill whoever we want dead, he's not without responsibility as mayor.
On March 05 2024 23:05 Palmar wrote:
Dumbest scumread ever is that TTS just casually assumed he'd be alive by day 4 or something.
Also even talking about a random voting stage like we're some plebeian third world mafia site is pretty scummy.
But he's done nothing so there's no read. Good policy lynch though.
Dumbest scumread ever is that TTS just casually assumed he'd be alive by day 4 or something.
Also even talking about a random voting stage like we're some plebeian third world mafia site is pretty scummy.
But he's done nothing so there's no read. Good policy lynch though.
Going further on into D1, Palmar had some good reads. Sheeped Sandro. Outlook positive on VE (did mention they "looked at little worse" eventually though). But, they haven't all been consistent. He pulled back on Oats being bad a bit. He also thought marv was looking scummy, too. So, more of a mixed bag than my early analysis showed.
Example:
On March 06 2024 06:56 Palmar wrote:
It's a "when I die post"
You can ignore it for now.
I'm going to be so mad if marv is alive by day 4 after this shit.
Like he can lynch me, but he KNOWS he should not be doing that unless he has a really good reason to, which he doesn't.
It's a "when I die post"
You can ignore it for now.
I'm going to be so mad if marv is alive by day 4 after this shit.
Like he can lynch me, but he KNOWS he should not be doing that unless he has a really good reason to, which he doesn't.
His lynch list at EOD1 isn't looking too hot:
On March 06 2024 08:43 Palmar wrote:
This is just random and for post-game purposes.
We actually have like 4 objectively correct lynches (that is correct from a "how to play mafia" perspective).
1) Vivax - All day 1 claimers should be policy lynched without question
2) TTS - Complete inactivity
3) Hapa - replacement and demotivation is something that happens much more often as mafia
4) Trfel - He literally is voting without having any clue why
But for various reasons I'm not really pushing any of those lynches. Guess I'm bad.
This is just random and for post-game purposes.
We actually have like 4 objectively correct lynches (that is correct from a "how to play mafia" perspective).
1) Vivax - All day 1 claimers should be policy lynched without question
2) TTS - Complete inactivity
3) Hapa - replacement and demotivation is something that happens much more often as mafia
4) Trfel - He literally is voting without having any clue why
But for various reasons I'm not really pushing any of those lynches. Guess I'm bad.
Final list post isn't great, too. Oats is now a TR. So maybe it was fake pressure all along? Still SRing TTS though, but that's not exactly gold-star-worthy play at this point IMO.
But does he bus this hard on D2?
On March 06 2024 19:03 Palmar wrote:
This is a good call.
On March 06 2024 14:21 DarthPunk wrote:
Vig shot on TTS btw.
Vig shot on TTS btw.
This is a good call.
Wonder what happened to this:
On March 06 2024 19:16 Palmar wrote:
I hate pretty much all of your takes CopCake
I hate pretty much all of your takes CopCake
This didn't age well, feels like a retaliatory SR:
On March 07 2024 00:31 Palmar wrote:
So like preemptively, I'm trying to come to a conclusion why rayn wouldn't open up my filter and ctrl+f Vivax while shouting in caps at me and I just really can't think of one.
Secondly I already explained to him as confirmed town (last game) how I differ in my approach to people's alignment. I don't tie them together like that.
raynpelikoneet
So like preemptively, I'm trying to come to a conclusion why rayn wouldn't open up my filter and ctrl+f Vivax while shouting in caps at me and I just really can't think of one.
Secondly I already explained to him as confirmed town (last game) how I differ in my approach to people's alignment. I don't tie them together like that.
raynpelikoneet
Nested quote from rayn here about how Palmar's progression on VE was scummy is interesting in retrospect.
Palmar feels like he is just all over the place now, this is what sowing chaos looks like to me, especially given what was said before, especially about sandroba:
On March 07 2024 01:02 Palmar wrote:
I think it's possible that marv, rayn and sandroba are mafia (varying degrees of possibility) and I don't care who masoned who.
I think it's possible that marv, rayn and sandroba are mafia (varying degrees of possibility) and I don't care who masoned who.
Still, can't deny that he is pushing hard on the Oats wagon. I think scum!Palmar would be content to be more half-hearted about it and sheep a VE vote relatively quietly when it was gaining momentum. Notable that Koshi was one of the driving forces for the VE lynch, but I'm starting to understand that this is just Koshi things (not that I like it though).
--[b]Intermission--
So far, everything from the mid point to the 3/4 mark of Palmar's filter is just a big fat nothingburger. Granted there was some drunkposting in the middle and I really sympathize with that, but it was almost all entirely lazy one-liners. Definitely "coasting" until some semblance of pressure mounted on him:
On March 12 2024 22:09 Palmar wrote:
Yeah no worries.
It's actually kinda fun.
The one thing I need, and I need other people to back me up on this. I am going to ask people why they think I am mafia, and I'm going to do it aggressively. Here's a very important point. Even if I was mafia, my teammates would absolutely want to get in on the "bus". This means that they would have to come up with good reasons to attack me. So even if townies agree that I must be mafia, be vary of who is on the train with you. And of course keep an open mind.
The worst thing that can happen if I get under heavy fire is that town just shuts up and does it quietly.
Essentially, if people want to hold hands and try to lynch me, I'm going to make them work for it, and in the process there is going to be a lot of information generated in the thread.
The last 2 days have been pretty bad in terms of information. Oats played well but was mafia so it can all be discarded, and VE just didn't even try.
That won't be the case if I'm the target.
Yeah no worries.
It's actually kinda fun.
The one thing I need, and I need other people to back me up on this. I am going to ask people why they think I am mafia, and I'm going to do it aggressively. Here's a very important point. Even if I was mafia, my teammates would absolutely want to get in on the "bus". This means that they would have to come up with good reasons to attack me. So even if townies agree that I must be mafia, be vary of who is on the train with you. And of course keep an open mind.
The worst thing that can happen if I get under heavy fire is that town just shuts up and does it quietly.
Essentially, if people want to hold hands and try to lynch me, I'm going to make them work for it, and in the process there is going to be a lot of information generated in the thread.
The last 2 days have been pretty bad in terms of information. Oats played well but was mafia so it can all be discarded, and VE just didn't even try.
That won't be the case if I'm the target.
Instead what ended up happening is he just posted reasons why others were scum, so it felt like just fulfilled his town!Palmar obligations and went back to relative chill hard mode. I don't think that should be too difficult to do as scum, especially since just about everyone has some unfortunate/wrong/bad-looking stuff in their filters to latch onto, read in the most negative way, or misrep. So, I don't think that his activity today gives him all too many townie points because in the end he is just hopping from one wagon to the next, either as scum or as town for scum.
--"Conclusion"--
I think that Palmar is pretty hard to put a finger on. Did he type a lot of things? Yes. Were some of them good-sounding? Assuredly so. Does he have strong convictions, drive, and does he ever put himself into any significant danger? No.
I haven't had the chance to filter JAT recently so I'll probably do that next while out, but I won't make a post like this. If I had to go off of my overall gut feeling throughout the game, I'd say that they were even more wishy-washy than Palmar, but I don't want to discredit JAT before I actually do the work, so take that with a heavy grain of salt.
When done with JAT's filter, I will just insert them into my current list of scumminess (left is most town, right is most scum):
Iamp > Palmar > Koshi > Cake
DP and Vivax are not present because I am still operating in conftown! world for both of them, similar for DMB but obviously much less so to keep it clean and easy.
PS: It seems I fucked up the bold tags somewhere but fuck it, it's legible.
