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On November 26 2020 06:05 raynpelikoneet wrote: Vivax why might Hapa be mafia?
With the flip I might have to reconsider, but I didn't buy the argument that Grack was scum for things around his mayoral campaign. To me it seemed like an obvious shitpost. IE Hapa didn't respect the context which happens often to mafia when they look for reasons to point at someone.
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On November 27 2020 07:00 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On November 26 2020 12:53 Trfel wrote: I was making another list post and then I realized it was useless so I deleted it. Forgot that my thoughts on the Vivax case were in there, so I never actually posted them. Sorry.
I don't really see Vivax's pursuit of multiple lynch targets as particularly compelling, I suppose. I agree with you that it's improper gameplay for town, but at the same time I could see it coming from town. I'm interested to see what Vivax has to say about it though, I'll let him speak for himself. Maybe I'm being dumb here.
... The point is that in addition to having this attitude of "lets lynch any one of these people", he also takes opposition to town's attempt to consolidate on the Grack lynch. It is the combination of these two things that is anti-town, because he shits on Town's one effort to consolidate while providing no alternative. It's purely criticism as opposed to anything constructive. Show nested quote +As for the incongruencies around Grackaroni, you're saying that Vivax said both: (1) Grackaroni isn't supertown or anything (2) Didn't buy the arguments for Grackaroni being mafia
To me, Vivax having effectively a null read of Grackaroni satisfies both of these conditions. He wouldn't want to keep him alive because he's towny, but he still wouldn't want to lynch him because he's not scummy.
I'll keep re-evaluating though. ON TOP OF THAT, there is the Grack stuff. I did a poor job of explaining the incongruency. I was more referring to how Vivax mentions that he wants Grack alive because he enjoys playing with him, and then starts to be very against his lynch despite him being a null read. I can get how he'd do so if he thought Grack was town. He does not. I can get how he'd do so if he thought Grack had a higher chance of flipping town than other players... yet some of the other lurkers (i.e. Shockey) were null "cant read this player" reads. ---- So all in all, we are left with this story that an experienced forum mafia player is ok with lynching into a pool of lurkers, but not his null read Grack, and he's not going to try at all to guide town into what he wants beyond his pool of lurkers. I don't buy it.
IIRC I almost always prioritize lurkers on D1 and not active players who are NKable as town.
You are also twisting very hard trying to make your point stick. Either that or you aren't able to understand why I didn't want to kill a null read whose posts I found funny.
You say I'm not doing enough at lynch, while I have two posts asking both the mayoral candidates if they would prioritize my preferences. Saying on one hand that I was pushing too many targets at once, then on the other that I wasn't trying to guide the lynch. No I didn't have a superscum read in particular and was content with having Shockeyy, TT and Jock in the lynch pool.
Because as an experienced forum mafia player I know better than to try too hard on D1, then I end up in a stupid read anyway because of confirmation bias or it's a good read and can't lynch them for lack of info, cooperation etc. So I go for more policy-like lynches. Mostly. If there isn't someone who in my opinion bled red.
he also takes opposition to town's attempt to consolidate on the Grack lynch.
First of all, we were consolidating on a mayor. Since I asked rayn to lynch my preferences instead, I wasn't trying to stop him from getting elected, which would be the way to stop Grack from being lynched.
Overall I think you call me mafia for things that could probably be said in a much simpler way.
* Didn't do enough. * Lynch pool too big. * Wanted to lynch lurkers. * Didn't want to lynch a null read.
And usually, dressing up things convolutedly is what mafia likes to do to beef up posts in active towns. But you apparently are blue and missed info from the OP when you're Hapa. It means in theory that now you have to be roleblocked every night if it was a mafia block.
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On November 26 2020 01:50 Jockmcplop wrote:slam:Will do what town decides grack:TT TT:FeFe Rayn:FF or TT Fefe:TT maybe Shockeyy Trfel:me, shockeyy, FF, TT, Grack We need to get this down to 2 candidates who are trusted by town. Personally I would have one of grack/rayn as mayor and maybe slam as pardoner. I will probably revote grack just because I think TT has been super lazy just picking something Fefe said on the first page and leaving that as his scumread for the whole time.Show nested quote +On November 26 2020 01:38 Grackaroni wrote:On November 26 2020 01:24 Vivax wrote:On November 26 2020 00:54 Grackaroni wrote: If I were mayor I'd kill Ticktock. I think he's less comfortable playing scum and more likely to lurk through the day because of his role than FF. (I know he's playing WoW but the thread isn't overwhelmingly large)
I wouldn't be upset though if any of FF/ShoCkey/TT are lynched.
Of active players Trfel is most likely mafia but I wouldn't gamble on that today, though I'd definitely like to avoid him being elected. What's your take on Jock? His post about Trfel was a good one and I think he has the right view on Rayn. I'm not sure what his reasoning was for changing his mind on Slam. Although I didn't think slam's campaign naturally made him town, i never scumread him and still don't.
This for example is a mafia post. Tries to look helpful doing a mayor votecount, and doesn't take into consideration what he previously said he thought about Grack.
On November 25 2020 23:41 Jockmcplop wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2020 23:30 Hapahauli wrote: Mornin'.
So we have a lynch in 6 hours. This discussion needs to be about a) who is mayor, and b) who town wants dead. There are too many people talking about light suspicions and townreads. That is not important right now.
Trfel for mayor. Whoever is mayor should shoot Grack or Shockeyy.
I think Grack is mafia, and I think Trfel brought up the best point against him: he has been relatively active and running for mayor, but reading his filter, I have no sense of what is "platform" is and who he even wants lynched. That seems like the hallmark of scum "looking like they want to contribute."
Shockeyy is remarkably disengaged in this game. He is existing, but again, no idea of what he wants to accomplish beyond his mayoral preferences. I disagree that townreads aren't important right now. They pretty much narrow down the pool of who can be mayor. Clearly shockeyy has no people townreading him so he won't be mayor. Out of the people claiming they want to be mayor, only slam and ticktock have said what they will do if elected. That's a problem. Out of those two I would probably prefer slam because at least he's been here enough that i'm confident he knows exactly what is happening. I'm unvoting grack because I don't feel like he has continued to engage with the mayor thing at all really like he never really wanted to be mayor in the first place.Trfel seems like an odd choice to me. He hasn't said he wanted to be mayor and has given no indication of what he would do if he was mayor. I can't vote for him anyway.
Regardless of who Grack wanted to lynch. Jock previously said that he wouldn't vote for him because of the low motivation to be mayor, and I don't think that changed at all approaching the lynch.
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On November 26 2020 05:43 ShoCkeyy wrote:Show nested quote +On November 26 2020 04:59 Vivax wrote:Grack is right Trfel posted this earlier. On November 26 2020 04:01 Trfel wrote:I think (other than Jockmcplop, since no one seems to agree with me on that) my preferred lynch is probably Fecalfeast. I like Tictock's push for raynpelikoneet to be mayor (I mean, I don't like it but it seems slightly town-motivated) because it shows that he is here, present, an cares about the game. He didn't really need to do anything, but he's making reads and is invested in them. Fecalfeast's play has been obviously very disconnected, he doesn't even seem to care that there is a decent chance he could be lynched. To be honest I am not sure that he is mafia, but I have no misgivings about lynching him and I'm not sure that he will get easier to read over time. I know that he likes to hide in the background as mafia, and it feels like he is doing that this game. And then there's Grackaroni. I don't like how he came up with so many reads so suddenly after being cautious with his reads earlier. Maybe he is mafia here after all. Though it's more like he's talking about the speed at which he came up with them. Either way, if rayn mayor. Lynch TT, Jock, or Shockeyy pleeaaaaaase? In no particular order but what you might agree with. I think Hapa might be scum but no way he gets lynched D1. Why not FF?
Because of his biggish post when EoD approached. Plus keeping up the general nonchalantness when he was under lynch threat, which is his town tone usually.
Now that it's answered, your turn.
On November 27 2020 10:12 ShoCkeyy wrote:Well people seem to be agreeing that Vivax needs to go, and he also hasn’t even answered my question on FF, so I’d say vivax
Who are people and are they more than those who wanna lynch Jock? You seem very happy to latch yourself onto Hapa's case here, and then hide behind the reasoning that a majority (is it?) agrees to lynch me. Call both scum equally but prefer one especially eh?
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On November 28 2020 17:35 ShoCkeyy wrote: I mean if I tinfoil here, if Trfel is mafia, while being pardoner can basically stop his lynch anyways. I don’t really see a problem point in discussing Trfel if that’s the case.
And if it turns out he's mafia you just never attempt to lynch him? What would you suggest to solve that with. I still think he's town fwiw.
My team would be Hapa + Jock atm. I just don't see how Hapa who is super diligent 'mistakenly' claims a roleblock and blurts out he's blue, and neither do I see how he wouldn't think Jock is mafia. Plus he manufactures very convoluted reasoning in cases against me that could be said in a much simpler way. That's because he's prioritizing the convincing over the validity of his case.
On November 28 2020 03:57 raynpelikoneet wrote: Yeah no, not a valid point. Between this Grack has been advocating lynching TT.
Oh yeah that's true. Point taken.
When considering the mayor I also took into consideration the read I had on them and I'm not sure if Jock did that. He based it all on who they claimed as their target, and revisiting his filter I don't find strong evidence he had a TR on Grack aside from a +town points comment at some point. So I find it odd he was happy with mayor rayn knowing he was going to kill Grack.
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I'm on the fence on FF after his 'why not lynch me' comment. Because that's the second time this game he has said or done something martyr-y. The first being that he voted for someone advocating his lynch.
Loosely posting with low effort is within his town scope, but that post gives him an impression like he's consciously doing it.
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On November 28 2020 07:40 Trfel wrote: I dunno what to think about Vivax. I am still not completely sold on Hapahauli's reasons for Vivax being mafia, and I think Vivax's response to those reasons was actually decent. But there were some other things I didn't like: Vivax seemed to be accusing Hapahauli the whole time and then ended with "but you're blue" which seems odd to me? But not out of the realm of possibility. And secondly, Vivax didn't seem to do much at all besides defend himself, which I found quite underwhelming.
I'll take another look at Vivax's filter.
And I dunno what you are reading because I pointed out the Jock thing at the same time.
This post is a lot of waffle and tbh I still have to look at what rayn has been saying about you. I don't think I ever called your alignment wrong though.
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Rayn's point on Trfel is essentially that he's hypocritical with how peeps are throwing votes around on available wagons. As for FF it's that he's one of those people. Overall posting seems townie.
I still think Hapa started off the day just like a mafia softing blue would. He goes whoops on his RB claim and doesn't have to reveal the role. But that obviously doesn't make him scum by itself. It just seems unusually sloppy for him.
What imo makes him possible scum is (aside from various misreps, thinking of him calling my posting useless) his preference for active players in the lynches. And right now he should be thinking I'm bussing Jock and maybe deliver a scenario where that's possible.
He seems otherwise content to let FF and Shockeyy remain in the null area, while he should be having a better read on rayn by now.
Really good mafia pushes vocal players first and finishes the job in a finale of coinflips. Granted, I can't find anything in his filter that makes me go HA. It's just that I get a feeling of dishonesty from his preferences and the way he goes about me.
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Certainly would help if Jock came back and posted something.
I'm a bit worried that he's the only viable wagon. But I'll vote for him in the meantime. Anyone else around?
On November 25 2020 00:47 Jockmcplop wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2020 00:42 Hapahauli wrote: @ Jock
I have noticed that you have been critical of Slam's "joke" candidacy.
Why then are you voting for Grack's campaign? Where are you getting the 'joke' candidacy thing from? I'm more critical of people assuming that slam's campaign makes him town, and i'm critical of slam putting that idea forward too. I have never said anything about slam's campaign being a joke or that i think about it in that way. I don't think he's joking at all. I'm voting for grack because he was thinking along similar lines to me as regards to slam's campaign not making him town, and bought it up in the thread before I did, so I gave him town points. I figure I'm better off voting for someone other than myself as mayor because i'm more likely to be able to pick out a town and help them be mayor than i am to do anything useful if i was mayor. At the moment grack has town points so he has my vote.
This post is also giving me pause. Because on the followup Hapa avoids to answer Jocks question where he got the joke candidacy from. I don't know if it has been adressed afterwards though.
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Meh. Half asleep town again. Fefe didn't even post.
I really hope rayn isn't mafia this game. Because that'd give him the perfect excuse to be alive later on. Haven't had the courage to jump down that rabbit hole yet.
In theory if mafia has a roleblocker Hapa should get blocked again? I have a hunch I'm gonna get killed, anyways.
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On November 29 2020 05:22 Trfel wrote: Vivax, you want to talk about anything? I'm around, just feeling very lost after the Jockmcplop flip. Slowly rereading all filters.
I'll await a few comments on the flip and then see what happens at night. Either way my motivation to do stuff should be low not knowing if I'm around tomorrow and with less info than post-night.
At most it's odd how Hapa left me off the hook so easily there. Felt like I was his biggest committment in the game.
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On November 29 2020 05:32 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2020 08:57 Fecalfeast wrote:On November 25 2020 08:45 raynpelikoneet wrote:On November 25 2020 08:41 Fecalfeast wrote: Hi I'm working weird hours I'm here now what's up i have 30 mins max before bed time. where is your head at? Kill Tictock if I got mayor most likely, shockeyy maybe instead Slam still town, grack still scumlean for trying hard with his campaign with honestly the same logic as shockeyy ironically You seem towny enough too This post seems quite suspect to me. Fecalfeast says that Grackaroni is a scumlean for trying hard with his campaign, and that that's the same reason he's suspicious of ShoCkeyy too. However, ShoCkeyy didn't try hard with his campaign, by this time he had already stopped campaigning. And his campaign lasted a whole three posts. However, this isn't that helpful as all it proves is that Fecalfeast didn't read carefully, but we already knew that. The interesting part for me is that Fecalfeast is townreading Alakaslam because he's having fun. But why isn't he scumreading him for trying hard with his mayoral campaign? Shouldn't that affect his read on Alakaslam the exact same way it did for Grackaroni and ShoCkeyy?
Mostly I don't know why he thinks Grack was trying too hard. But I don't know why you think that's the same reason he scumread Shockeyy for.
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Oh yeah, doesn't even make sense. If Shockeyy tried too hard with what he did than the same could be said for anyone running for mayor.
I see I'm already too sleepy to read properly.
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On November 29 2020 06:24 Trfel wrote: And Vivax, I don't believe you ever responded to my comments yesterday? Specifically, when did you actually catch up with the thread and start to have solid reads?
You had multiple posts going on. Which ones in particular do you mean and I don't get what you mean with the last sentence? My reads are far from solid after the Jock flip. I have little conviction on any read besides on you. I think I'd be ok with Fefe as town as well purely tone wise without the semi-martyr-y posts which read too smug for my taste.
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I'm not a role, I'm VT. Very likely that Trfel and Fefe are what they claim to be at this point.
Hapa makes most sense as one of the mafia given that he 'accidentally' missed the mechanic where only roles get notified, when it was in truth convenient to set up a later claim.
As for the Shockeyy kill, I don't read it as a blue snipe but rather as mafia hiding among active players. Imo that implies either one or both of rayn and Hapa. What's the alternative? That they thought he was BG and want to kill rayn at some point? Seems unlikely.
On November 30 2020 09:10 Hapahauli wrote: I think it was very easily deduced from my posting about what blue role I was.
As for why I wasn't killed, two plausible reasons: 1) I basically afk'd for 3 days. 2) Why would you shoot the Mad Hatter if you believe he is likely to deliver KP on mafia (i.e. Vivax)?
It wasn't as easy to deduce as you claim. Me nor anyone else I think deduced you were mad hatter. For mafia maybe, but not certainly. If they did, you should have been roleblocked by not-Trfel (which we can't verify for N1 I think).
On November 30 2020 09:24 raynpelikoneet wrote: hapa said he targeted vivax N1 and then said why would mafia kill me if i am gonna take mafia with me, he was roleblocked as per his words N1 so there is no vivax anyways.
This too.
For the second mafia that leaves one of rayn or TT. If rayn is mafia here he's playing the bus game, trying his hardest to kill Hapa, being able to survive the next night given that his bodyguard he's still alive, hence having the perfect excuse to be alive for another cycle, and then push for TT or me in this scenario.
I can't tell from his posts alone, especially because he's advocating the logical course to go about today. But they are very much within the scope of what he is capable of as mafia.
If TT is mafia on the other hand, he's still leaving himself wiggle room to switch between me or Hapa by just pushing both at once with the story of how we bussed each other.
Of the two options, at the moment I think the rayn + Hapa world is more likely purely based on TT delivering analysis on me and Hapa, and because I believe that at this point, there is a greater incentive for mafia to simply bus. On a Hapa mafia flip, rayn would probably get an edge against TT tomorrow.
That said, with Trfel being JK. There's a something something chance that a mislynch doesn't end the game, I think? So no-lynching doesn't seem like a good idea. Unless the scum roleblocker overrides his jailing? The BG role won't be able to stop a jail either.
Rayn + TT would also be possible but it's not something I'm willing to entertain atm. I just don't believe someone like Hapa mistakenly claimed the RB, and then makes it through the night unscatched and unroleblocked while Shockeyy dies. Then again it's a strange pick over TT or Fefe.
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My lurker concern was centered on D1. Pointing out that Shockeyy seemed very eager to follow your points has nothing to do with lurkers. He dropped it, I dropped it.
As for your Jock scumread, it seemed nonexistent at the time considering he wasn't posting at all but you kept posting with the goal of lynching me. It just doesn't seem quite honest to have most agreeing on someone being mafia who you also claim to be scumreading and then proceed to push the other read instead. If Jock would have been mafia with you, that'd be textbook scumplay.
The points on TT regarding his read on me have some merit but nothing that can't be explained by indecisiveness.
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I find it noteworthy that on D1, when generally lynching lurkers makes the most sense, you made that a reason for me being mafia. While on later days when there's generally more info around, not only do you sort of insist I should be further pursuing that strategy (saying that it was scummy I dropped Shockeyy in favour of Jock, who btw aside from things I pointed out that made me think he was scum, could be considered a lurker anyway before we knew he went completely afk), but in the rushed post afterwards, post-flip I think, you thought my reasoning made sense.
Reads more like capitulation to me after you failed to get me lynched instead.
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On December 01 2020 02:06 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On December 01 2020 01:05 Vivax wrote: ...
The points on TT regarding his read on me have some merit but nothing that can't be explained by indecisiveness. Going to add that this is complete horseshit. Calling TT's read "progression" (if you can even call it that) is not indecisiveness. The whole damn point is that TT is decisive despite having nothing to back it up. Mafia hedging/softpushing/etc/yadda yadda.
In theory he shouldn't have a particular preference for either of us when it's teams he's talking about. And whether you want to talk to me or an invisible audience is irrelevant, but it seems we're the only ones in the thread atm and the only thing that changes is the pronoun used.
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On December 01 2020 02:22 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On December 01 2020 02:13 Vivax wrote:On December 01 2020 02:06 Hapahauli wrote:On December 01 2020 01:05 Vivax wrote: ...
The points on TT regarding his read on me have some merit but nothing that can't be explained by indecisiveness. Going to add that this is complete horseshit. Calling TT's read "progression" (if you can even call it that) is not indecisiveness. The whole damn point is that TT is decisive despite having nothing to back it up. Mafia hedging/softpushing/etc/yadda yadda. In theory he shouldn't have a particular preference for either of us when it's teams he's talking about. And whether you want to talk to me or an invisible audience is irrelevant, but it seems we're the only ones in the thread atm and the only thing that changes is the pronoun used. Who is my most likely scumbuddy? Show nested quote +Of the two options, at the moment I think the rayn + Hapa world is more likely purely based on TT delivering analysis on me and Hapa, and because I believe that at this point, there is a greater incentive for mafia to simply bus. On a Hapa mafia flip, rayn would probably get an edge against TT tomorrow. This is not a sufficient answer at this point in the game. It is convenient and scummy to proffer one serious scumread and fail to do any significant analysis on who the teammate of that player is. All of this analysis is surface level and incredibly lazy. If I am mafia, both Rayn and TT are bussing the shit out of me.
In my opinion TT doesn't look like he made up his mind, while rayn is very aggressively pushing you. They're not even close in how they are handling their scumreads.
That said, I think rayn is more likely mafia out of him and TT. You also keep insisting that bussing isn't worth it, which I disagree with. Bussing would probably be very worth it today and put Trfel in a difficult situation where in my scenario he's jailing TT. Not to mention that Trfel could still pull off a hero jail even if we mislynch.
And the Shockeyy kill also tells me that mafia is hoping to mislynch me while it's probably you and rayn. Obviously rayn can't just press for my lynch with a straight face, so he's going for the bus play instead. It just wouldn't look good for you if I got killed, especially after claiming you had a role.
I'm not really willing to entertain a TT + rayn world and think the confidence with which you have been pushing me since D1 speaks more for a strategic read than an honest scumread. While my activity has admittedly been at times lackluster, that doesn't remove the impression that your read on me has been very static.
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On December 01 2020 14:48 Tictock wrote:Show nested quote +On December 01 2020 14:44 raynpelikoneet wrote: Its okay, lets hear why i am mafia with Vivax. I am not getting into that, just saying Vivax should be the lynch here.
On December 01 2020 19:44 Tictock wrote: How in the hell do you think I am mafia with Hapa after today? Rayn/Hapa makes no sense either with Rayn literally not wanting to lynch anyone by Hapa all day.
Bit of a crappy question (also, in general) after first waffling on me + Hapa apparently delivering more points on Hapa, then deciding for me and wondering what could possibly make you mafia with Hapa.
I just skimmed over rayns posts and given the mod notice I'm not sure if I'll read them too carefully. I'm guessing Hapa bought himself lenience by spamming?
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