On May 07 2020 02:03 Trfel wrote:How to Solve the Unsolvable GameFortunately, I still have one card to play.
I claim Town Tracker.Hard claim. No take-backsies or any of that.
I know, I'm surprised there are two investigative roles in the game. But the setup is what the setup is, it's up to us to play it to the best of our abilities.
Night 1: Tracked
Koshi. Koshi did not visit anyone.
Night 2: Tracked
GlowingBear. GlowingBear visited
Chezinu.
Please note a few things about the setup of the game. First, non-vt roles are unique. This includes the mafia team. The mafia team comprises of up to one goon (who delivers the night kill) and two to three of the following: roleblocker, framer, godfather, and mason. Also, keep in mind that roleblocking the veteran does not prevent his ability from blocking a kill in this game.
I believe:
GlowingBear is the mafia roleblocker/framer who visited Chezinu on Night 2.Framing causes the framed player to visit a random player on that night only (not all future nights, like framing in some other mafia games). So a Night 1 frame on GlowingBear would not cause him to visit a player on Night 2. Also note that framing another mafia member is useless in this game, as framing causes them to return
mafia to checks, not reverse the alignment.
There is the possibility that GlowingBear himself is the mafia framer and framed Chezinu on Night 2, but I think it is more likely that he is the roleblocker. The reason for this is that Chezinu was hinting at being a power role for a significant portion, as was raynpelikoneet. It makes sense that mafia would roleblock Chezinu and kill raynpelikoneet in this situation. However, if GlowingBear is the mafia framer, I would still consider it a successful lynch.
GlowingBear as mafia would never visit mafia!Chezinu in this way. Therefore, unless GlowingBear was framed on Night 2, he is 100% mafia. I consider the odds quite good. And furthermore, if GlowingBear is indeed mafia, Chezinu is confirmed town. That's why I have been hard townreading Chezinu despite knowing that he is not blue.
Player ListChezinuGrackaroni?Vivax
Alakaslam
Jockmcplop
Koshi
GlowingBearTrfelFrom here the game still has some difficulty, but the above is what is known. Hopefully as more mafia are lynched, the roles of the mafia players make things more clear.
For example, I very, very, very strongly believe Jockmcplop to be mafia, enough that I would be willing to lynch him over nearly-confirmed-mafia GlowingBear today (Day 3, at the time of writing). If Jockmcplop flips mafia goon, unfortunately this is not very helpful. I expect Jockmcplop to be the goon because of Murphy's Law. However, if Jockmcplop flips any other mafia role, we know that the third mafia (not GlowingBear, if he was the goon then Chezinu would be dead, and not Jockmcplop)
has to be the goon, because mafia roles are all unique. And remember, the goon delivers the night kill until they are dead. This would all but confirm Koshi as town, because he did not visit anyone on Night 1 (there would need to be three mafia roles, none of which are the goon, and Koshi would need to be the godfather or mason and not deliver the night kill). If Jockmcplop flips godfather, this would also make it even more likely that GlowingBear is mafia and Grackaroni is town (as there is even less likelihood of a framer in a game with an unaware miller and a godfather).
One other thing that can be tried is trying to figure out who is the mason. I personally believe that the mason is mafia, otherwise there is no reason for the mason not to have claimed already (even if not to save ShoCkeyy, why not still claim?). I believe that the mason would rather avoid the attention that claiming mason would cause, thus is playing to survive, and therefore is mafia. If no town players claim mason, then we know the remaining mason is mafia, as masons are required to be a pair. If a mafia member is a mason, they can't have any other role (at least, I think this is true anyway, might be worth asking). Therefore, it's even less likely for a framer to exist (assuming GlowingBear flips roleblocker).
Unless mafia decides to try and counterclaim (which I welcome with open arms), I will be dead and there will still be two lynches ahead. I strongly recommend lynching
Jockmcplop and
Alakaslam.
Reading Grackaroni as mafia is quite tinfoil-y, but this possibility can be addressed if needed when there is only one mafia left. As more information about the mafia roles is revealed, more information about whether it's possible for Grackaroni to be mafia here is likewise revealed.
Koshi is also almost certainly town. In addition to not visiting anyone Night 1, he hard-pushed
GlowingBear on Day 1 and nearly lynched him.
Vivax is very likely to be town here as well. In my opinion, Vivax's play this game has been a solid average. I realize that this is underwhelming for him given the very strong town games he has played recently. However, I also know that Vivax's meta as mafia is to afk and play a very weak game (admittedly this is an old meta since there haven't been many games for the past few years, so take it with a grain of salt). So I could see Vivax playing like this as mafia. The question is,
how likely is it? Is it more likely that Vivax is playing a pretty amazing scum game here, or that obviously suspicious people like Jockmcplop and Alakaslam are mafia? I think viewing Vivax as mafia here is quite paranoid, given the much more obvious targets available (Jockmcplop and Alakaslam).
ConclusionUnfortunately, I failed to confirm anything for certain. However, a lot of things are very, very likely with this claim. These are as follows:
GlowingBear is mafiaChezinu is townKoshi is townAnd with a few basic associations,
Jockmcplop is mafiaGrackaroni is townAlakaslam is mafiaI haven't had the time to do this yet, but please, please, please, someone look through GlowingBear's filter. Look at how he and Jockmcplop have been townreading each other since the start of Night 1 for very weak reasons, no matter what evidence is presented. Look at how GlowingBear is so averse to lynching Jockmcplop here. Look how Alakaslam is trying to find the easiest lynch that isn't Jockmcplop,
despite Jockmcplop being in his POE mafia list. The associations are strong. Please, please, please heavily consider the following mafia team:
GlowingBear
Jockmcplop
AlakaslamIt's been a pleasure playing with you all. I look forward to hopefully playing together again soon.
+ Show Spoiler [Why did you say this now?] +I didn't want to post this before the End of Night 3 unless I absolutely had to. The main reason is to try and get one more track in (I'd track Alakaslam, he's the mafia target I am least confident in). However, another reason is that I believe that flipping one mafia who isn't GlowingBear will provide even more information on GlowingBear's alignment and the possible roles of the mafia team. And I am very confident that Jockmcplop is mafia here, I am very willing to stake the game on it. I'm possibly even more confident in Jockmcplop being mafia than I am in GlowingBear being mafia, despite the track and all.
If this is posted at the End of Night 3 after all, I apologize to town for not being more quiet over Day 3 and kinda giving away that I am a power role. My best play was to keep my mouth shut and not draw attention to get a third track action and hopefully seal the game away. Unfortunately, it was difficult for me to judge how much guidance town needed, and more importantly, I was just plain bored on Day 3, so I needed to be involved and post my thoughts.
I don't know when this will actually be posted, I am writing this in the middle of Day 3. I apologize if some of the information is a bit out-of-date, I doubt I had the time and/or motivation to edit this post.
EPT
But we're all in Endgame now.
