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Trfel
7015 Posts
On May 02 2020 05:59 ShoCkeyy wrote: So, GlowingBear is either town or mafia There's only two possible scenarios with the information above, either they're trying to frame GB or GB is mafia.  | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On May 01 2020 12:50 Fecalfeast wrote: And a few (Fecalfeast) posts later, says GlowingBear probably isn't scum anymore.I have scum reads or at least scumleans on shockey slam gb chezinu and atm grack And i was scumming kurumi but actually can you show me where i threw suspicion everyehere? Pointing out or questioning perceived contradictions is hardly throwing suspicion Leaves ShoCkeyy, Alakaslam, Chezinu, Grackaroni. He talked most about ShoCkeyy and Chezinu. If anything, I would say the night kill implicates them. I'll likely be around for a bit if anyone wants to discuss anything. Unfortunately there isn't a ton of new info to work with imo  | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
@Grackaroni, you can think what you want. I haven't been defending people, just sharing my thoughts. If you really think I have been only going after easy targets, why would I "go after" Koshi? But I won't defend myself other than saying I act according to how I view the game. Honestly I'm getting kinda tinfoily and paranoid based on the night kill. Why not kill Vivax? Everyone was townreading him. Or Koshi, most people were townreading him (exceptions I believe being myself and Alakaslam). Or even myself, for that matter, most people were townreading me. Yes, a lot of people were townreading Fecalfeast, and he wasn't likely to be lynched this game, but the same goes for the above people. It feels too far off to be a medic dodge. Perhaps it was an attempted blue snipe, but on what grounds? I just fear that it means that one or more of the aforementioned people are actually mafia. That's what a night kill like this can point to. Unfortunately I don't have a solid case to scumread any of them For reference, here is an example of a game where something like the above happened, and night kill analysis would have been the way to figure it out. Don't want to dive too deep into the paranoia, but it's hard to ignore entirely... | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On May 02 2020 14:33 Vivax wrote: You mean his read on ShoCkeyy or Fecalfeast? I skimmed his filter, those two seemed most prominent to me. Sure, he talked about Chezinu less, but he was one of few who talked about him at all (at least in any kind of alignment indicative way).Morning. Have you read his filter Trfel? There's a read that sticks out imo. I've been burned before from drawing conclusions from kills though. And shouldn't Slam have a check? And I guess we'd better wait for Alakaslam to say. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
I've honestly no clue who is mafia this game | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On May 02 2020 14:58 Vivax wrote: I was just teasing him really.I thought you had a scumread on Shockeyy. You even called out one of his posts as being a whole load of nothing this day. I'd lynch him today. I've no idea about ShoCkeyy To me it's really hard to tell when he's town or mafia, I kinda want to scumread him every game. His play this game feels different from last game (where he was mafia), I don't know if that's just him trying to change his play after last game or if he's town this game. His activity is markedly improved from last game too. If I had to take a guess honestly I'd guess town.Why do you want to lynch him? Just because of the inconsistency on Koshi? I'm still not sold on GlowingBear being town, raynpelikoneet's lack of activity recently (since he started getting scumread) feels off, Koshi is a big question mark... You're not mafia, are you? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On May 02 2020 15:33 Vivax wrote: Not a zero conviction vote, a low conviction vote. I felt like there was a higher chance of ShoCkeyy flipping mafia than GlowingBear. Koshi (townread at the time) had mentioned he could switch to ShoCkeyy as well, I felt like it was actually a realistic lynch, too.So this was a zero conviction vote? Why mention him not voting GB then as if it was a reason for him to be mafia? I do that paragraph's second half is a reason ShoCkeyy could be mafia. Not that he should have voted for Alakaslam, just that he didn't seem to care that his townread was getting lynched and no one was caring about his scumread really. I just feel that ShoCkeyy's play overall fits better as town than mafia right now, specifically the increased post count and some of the reads he's making where you can see his thought process and it's original (not that I agree with it necessarily, but it seems like he's thinking about things). @Alakaslam, I don't see any reason to lynch Jockmcplop right now. I don't have a great read on him at all (just a gut-read that he is town, but then again I have that for a lot of players, too many...), I have kinda been ignoring trying to read him until he posts more and there is more information to work with. I'm thinking that maybe I want to lynch Chezinu today. Sorry if I'm not explaining things clearly, I'm not quite myself tonight. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Town Maybe Town? Vivax Koshi raynpelikoneet Super Weak Townread ShoCkeyy Grackaroni Alakaslam Jockmcplop Mafia? Chezinu GlowingBear? Mafia | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Vivax, are you sure GlowingBear is town? I know he didn't vote, and that can seem towny, but outside of that his play reads like mafia to me. I'm on my phone so it's hard to elaborate, but if it's only one thing that makes you think someone is town, IMO you'd better be really really freaking sure about that one thing. Mafia can do surprising things sometimes. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
GlowingBear 1. Scumread Koshi for misconstruing GlowingBear's play. However, note the timing, he scumread Koshi well after this all started. Despite GlowingBear not having a townread on Koshi, he got mad at Koshi and treated Koshi like town and never questioned that he could be mafia until much later, when raynpelikoneet asks him about Koshi. This doesn't feel natural at all. Town tend to be quick to call their accusers scum, especially when they feel misrepresented and ignored and all the things GlowingBear was saying. 2. Shifting reads. His scumreads shift in priority in a way that doesn't make sense. First he says Jockmcplop is mafia, and Alakaslam second. Then he says Jockmcplop and Koshi are mafia, and raynpelikoneet or Alakaslam. Then he was making a case on raynpelikoneet to defend himself (huh?). Then most recently raynpelikoneet as top mafia. It doesn't feel like he is putting much thought into his scumreads. 3. Evaluates my post on Koshi at face value. While this is objectively good, I don't see this coming from town who strongly scumreads Koshi and cares about his alignment. GlowingBear's thoughts are correct, and that's the issue here. GlowingBear doesn't use it as an opportunity to convince me to vote for Koshi or anything. Not that he should lie, or ignore my points being weak, but he could have directed me to stronger reasons to scumread Koshi. Or pointed out the strength of my remaining point instead of merely saying it was the strongest point I provided. Feels like he is just sharing his thoughts instead of actually caring about people's alignments. Sorry if that doesn't make sense, I know it's a lot of words. There are a few other points I could make, but I figured I would just bring up these things now. ##vote GlowingBear | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On May 02 2020 16:49 Vivax wrote: What GlowingBear said about losing motivation and not caring if he was lynched is 100% true, regardless of alignment. Given how he was being constantly scumread, sick, and in a Diplomacy game, I could really see him not minding being lynched there.Yeah, you may be right that I'm giving too much importance to that, but when as mafia you just want to survive, voting someone else to save yourself for another cycle is really a nobrainer. He was here at EoD 100%. I think I'll chill for now and see what GB brings to the table to get rayn and Koshi lynched. Because it's kind of bold to be in a line of thinking where the mafia are Koshi, rayn and one of me or Slam and I want to see how he justifies that. . It's not an impossible combination, but kinda like assuming mafia hit the active vet jackpot. Though rayn to me doesn't feel like the same rayn from yesterday before EoD, so there's that. It's hard to describe, or show without quotes, but maybe sometime take another look at GlowingBear's filter and see how his reads on Koshi and raynpelikoneet and Alakaslam evolve. And see how much weight and care he puts behind those reads. I think it's very telling. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
If you're wondering what changed between my case/vote and my list post, I read GlowingBear's filter a few times. Chezinu, I'm sorry, I'm not sure what you mean Care to translate for those of us who struggle to see things the way you do? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On May 02 2020 21:46 Jockmcplop wrote: Honestly it doesn't really, especially since GlowingBear said the same thing first.RE: point 3, how does my analysis of your koshi post effect your read on me? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On May 03 2020 05:41 Vivax wrote: Just no one commented on it. Maybe I need to rewrite it.Hard to think of something I'm not underwhelmed from. Which people btw. ##Vote rayn Voting raynpelikoneet if he doesn't play makes sense? Except for a lot of people aren't playing currently | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On May 03 2020 06:41 Vivax wrote: Hm, that makes sense, fair enough. I'll keep my vote on GlowingBear for now (I'm most confident he is mafia) but I guess I could vote for raynpelikoneet if things keep going this way.Yeah I'm sorry if I don't pay too much attention to your case right now. I'm also kinda triggered that today to me feels like a circlejerk between you and me. But if vets I'm used to like Koshi and rayn basically put 1% of the effort they did on D1, coupled with the FF kill, then odds are at least one of them is mafia. And I'm putting my money on rayn, also because of his voting shenanigans yesterday. Also, sorry Jockmcplop, realized I forgot to respond to you. I am sorry for being incorrect. For some reason I'm having trouble finding the posts in your filter. I take it the reason you ask is because you're scumreading Koshi too, so the same logic that it looks suspicious for GlowingBear should look suspicious for you too. That makes sense but I don't think it really applies to this case, since this is more of an emotional point. GlowingBear should be much more emotionally invested in his scumread of Koshi if he is town, and I would expect that to come out much more in his play. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
@GlowingBear, why doesn't ShoCkeyy's post makes sense? I can understand where he is coming from, at least, even if I don't necessarily agree. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On May 03 2020 14:04 GlowingBear wrote: I'll leave that for ShoCkeyy to answer, I guesssssssss I can kinda see where you're coming from, even if I can see ShoCkeyy's perspective more easily.Why would FF's death in any way incriminate me? His post sounded like he was trying to put suspicions on me without actually comitting to have me lynched. Interested to hear your thoughts when you are finished catching up. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On May 03 2020 14:09 GlowingBear wrote: It's slightly explained in his filter but not a ton.I finished catching up and there's nothing much to talk about. Why is Koshi voting Shockey now? Who do you think is mafia currently? I know ShoCkeyy, still raynpelikoneet and Koshi? What about Alakaslam and the rest? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Looking forward to raynpelikoneet's thoughts. | ||
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