EPT[M][N]Oil Futures Mafia - Page 12
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On May 05 2020 16:45 Koshi wrote: Fortunately, I still have one card to play.Town 99% certain lost. I claim Town Tracker. Hard claim. No take-backsies or any of that. I know, I'm surprised there are two investigative roles in the game. But the setup is what the setup is, it's up to us to play it to the best of our abilities. Night 1: Tracked Koshi. Koshi did not visit anyone. Night 2: Tracked GlowingBear. GlowingBear visited Chezinu. Please note a few things about the setup of the game. First, non-vt roles are unique. This includes the mafia team. The mafia team comprises of up to one goon (who delivers the night kill) and two to three of the following: roleblocker, framer, godfather, and mason. Also, keep in mind that roleblocking the veteran does not prevent his ability from blocking a kill in this game. I believe: GlowingBear is the mafia roleblocker/framer who visited Chezinu on Night 2. Framing causes the framed player to visit a random player on that night only (not all future nights, like framing in some other mafia games). So a Night 1 frame on GlowingBear would not cause him to visit a player on Night 2. Also note that framing another mafia member is useless in this game, as framing causes them to return mafia to checks, not reverse the alignment. There is the possibility that GlowingBear himself is the mafia framer and framed Chezinu on Night 2, but I think it is more likely that he is the roleblocker. The reason for this is that Chezinu was hinting at being a power role for a significant portion, as was raynpelikoneet. It makes sense that mafia would roleblock Chezinu and kill raynpelikoneet in this situation. However, if GlowingBear is the mafia framer, I would still consider it a successful lynch. GlowingBear as mafia would never visit mafia!Chezinu in this way. Therefore, unless GlowingBear was framed on Night 2, he is 100% mafia. I consider the odds quite good. And furthermore, if GlowingBear is indeed mafia, Chezinu is confirmed town. That's why I have been hard townreading Chezinu despite knowing that he is not blue. Player List Chezinu Grackaroni? Vivax Alakaslam Jockmcplop Koshi GlowingBear Trfel From here the game still has some difficulty, but the above is what is known. Hopefully as more mafia are lynched, the roles of the mafia players make things more clear. For example, I very, very, very strongly believe Jockmcplop to be mafia, enough that I would be willing to lynch him over nearly-confirmed-mafia GlowingBear today (Day 3, at the time of writing). If Jockmcplop flips mafia goon, unfortunately this is not very helpful. I expect Jockmcplop to be the goon because of Murphy's Law. However, if Jockmcplop flips any other mafia role, we know that the third mafia (not GlowingBear, if he was the goon then Chezinu would be dead, and not Jockmcplop) has to be the goon, because mafia roles are all unique. And remember, the goon delivers the night kill until they are dead. This would all but confirm Koshi as town, because he did not visit anyone on Night 1 (there would need to be three mafia roles, none of which are the goon, and Koshi would need to be the godfather or mason and not deliver the night kill). If Jockmcplop flips godfather, this would also make it even more likely that GlowingBear is mafia and Grackaroni is town (as there is even less likelihood of a framer in a game with an unaware miller and a godfather). One other thing that can be tried is trying to figure out who is the mason. I personally believe that the mason is mafia, otherwise there is no reason for the mason not to have claimed already (even if not to save ShoCkeyy, why not still claim?). I believe that the mason would rather avoid the attention that claiming mason would cause, thus is playing to survive, and therefore is mafia. If no town players claim mason, then we know the remaining mason is mafia, as masons are required to be a pair. If a mafia member is a mason, they can't have any other role (at least, I think this is true anyway, might be worth asking). Therefore, it's even less likely for a framer to exist (assuming GlowingBear flips roleblocker). Unless mafia decides to try and counterclaim (which I welcome with open arms), I will be dead and there will still be two lynches ahead. I strongly recommend lynching Jockmcplop and Alakaslam. Reading Grackaroni as mafia is quite tinfoil-y, but this possibility can be addressed if needed when there is only one mafia left. As more information about the mafia roles is revealed, more information about whether it's possible for Grackaroni to be mafia here is likewise revealed. Koshi is also almost certainly town. In addition to not visiting anyone Night 1, he hard-pushed GlowingBear on Day 1 and nearly lynched him. Vivax is very likely to be town here as well. In my opinion, Vivax's play this game has been a solid average. I realize that this is underwhelming for him given the very strong town games he has played recently. However, I also know that Vivax's meta as mafia is to afk and play a very weak game (admittedly this is an old meta since there haven't been many games for the past few years, so take it with a grain of salt). So I could see Vivax playing like this as mafia. The question is, how likely is it? Is it more likely that Vivax is playing a pretty amazing scum game here, or that obviously suspicious people like Jockmcplop and Alakaslam are mafia? I think viewing Vivax as mafia here is quite paranoid, given the much more obvious targets available (Jockmcplop and Alakaslam). Conclusion Unfortunately, I failed to confirm anything for certain. However, a lot of things are very, very likely with this claim. These are as follows: GlowingBear is mafia Chezinu is town Koshi is town And with a few basic associations, Jockmcplop is mafia Grackaroni is town Alakaslam is mafia I haven't had the time to do this yet, but please, please, please, someone look through GlowingBear's filter. Look at how he and Jockmcplop have been townreading each other since the start of Night 1 for very weak reasons, no matter what evidence is presented. Look at how GlowingBear is so averse to lynching Jockmcplop here. Look how Alakaslam is trying to find the easiest lynch that isn't Jockmcplop, despite Jockmcplop being in his POE mafia list. The associations are strong. Please, please, please heavily consider the following mafia team: GlowingBear Jockmcplop Alakaslam It's been a pleasure playing with you all. I look forward to hopefully playing together again soon. + Show Spoiler [Why did you say this now?] + I didn't want to post this before the End of Night 3 unless I absolutely had to. The main reason is to try and get one more track in (I'd track Alakaslam, he's the mafia target I am least confident in). However, another reason is that I believe that flipping one mafia who isn't GlowingBear will provide even more information on GlowingBear's alignment and the possible roles of the mafia team. And I am very confident that Jockmcplop is mafia here, I am very willing to stake the game on it. I'm possibly even more confident in Jockmcplop being mafia than I am in GlowingBear being mafia, despite the track and all. If this is posted at the End of Night 3 after all, I apologize to town for not being more quiet over Day 3 and kinda giving away that I am a power role. My best play was to keep my mouth shut and not draw attention to get a third track action and hopefully seal the game away. Unfortunately, it was difficult for me to judge how much guidance town needed, and more importantly, I was just plain bored on Day 3, so I needed to be involved and post my thoughts. I don't know when this will actually be posted, I am writing this in the middle of Day 3. I apologize if some of the information is a bit out-of-date, I doubt I had the time and/or motivation to edit this post. + Show Spoiler [Music] + Perhaps more appropriate for me than for you, given the circumstances  But we're all in Endgame now. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
##vote GlowingBear | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On May 07 2020 02:08 Koshi wrote: Part of it was waiting and being hopeful for one more tracking action. Part of it (which I forgot to say) is that if I claimed end of night and died, mafia could no longer counterclaim me. I would almost be more powerful dead than alive.##unvote ##vote GlowingBear Very good. You could have done this sooner but this claim is legit. But yes, maybe sooner would have been good. I was just that confident in Jockmcplop being mafia... | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Better decide what to do! | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Surprised you didn't go for the "I was framed!" approach honestly. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On May 07 2020 02:46 GlowingBear wrote: Since when did you believe Chezinu's claim? o.OWhy would I say I was framed? I don't believe there are THREE power roles with TWO investigative roles in the game. Claiming now is very opportunistic, since you were piling votes. This is you, as mafia, trying to guarantee a win now. If you mislynch, you win. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
I'll be back in an hour or so to see what happened. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On May 07 2020 02:55 GlowingBear wrote: I never said Chezinu was the doctor in my claim post?We've discussed this a lot today, didn't we? I've been trying to get more information from him to confirm this, there is a possibility he is the doctor. And if you don't believe Chez is the doctor, why are you assuming he is in your claim post? Also, if your claim is true, why did you track Koshi, out of every other player? Check my filter N1 and my case on Koshi, that's why. And guess why I backed off of it D2? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On May 07 2020 03:41 Vivax wrote: I was thinking we had the lynch. I was trying to maybe survive the night by being less certain in my reads.I looked at Trfel's read on Chez. One's on N2, the other is today. It actually is consistent with the claim. + Show Spoiler + On May 04 2020 05:22 Trfel wrote: Finished lunch. On a computer now. Let me know if anyone wants to talk, I'll be on and off between this and schoolwork. Before Rereading Town Vivax - Only other player who has been consistently present and trying to find mafia Maybe Town Grackaroni - Good thoughts on ShoCkeyy even if wrong, need to double check though Alakaslam - Seems like he is actually trying to solve the game Koshi - Effort, re-evaluating reads, trying to solve the game raynpelikoneet - Trying to solve the game, willing to work with people. Didn't make much of a fuss about ShoCkeyy getting lynched, need to re-evaluate this Maybe Mafia Chezinu - Very distant, disinterested Jockmcplop - Hiding in the background, not posting original thoughts/reads GlowingBear - Scumreads feel fabricated, doesn't seem to care about them 9 players left. 6 v 3. After the night kill it'll be 5 v 3, so that makes it MYLO currently. Lousy position to be in  On May 05 2020 06:50 Trfel wrote: Town Chezinu Grackaroni Town? Vivax Koshi Mafia? Alakaslam Mafia Jockmcplop GlowingBear  What doesn't make sense are these two posts: Post 1 should never have happened if Chez was confirmed town for Trfel. ##Unvote ##Vote Trfel | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
You are seriously lynching an un-cc'd blue? I really have nothing to say. I've played my heart out this game. Kinda disappointed honestly. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On May 07 2020 03:58 Chezinu wrote: I said I needed to be gone the hour before the deadline....Why did you disappear Mr. Truffle? Which is why I claimed well before it was time to go. But no one discussed it then. If you must know, I had a therapist appointment. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Sorry town I tried to explain why I did what I did in my large post, I didn't think I'd have to defend myself much so the important parts for my own defense I put in a spoiler at the bottom that never seemed to get read I was trying to avoid claiming because I was certain Jockmcplop was mafia and I was hoping to get one more track action off. I would have tracked Alakaslam, which if it had all worked out, would have been really helpful in trying to realize that Alakaslam was town after all. I ended up claiming when it looked like we were going to not lynch Jockmcplop at End of Day, it had nothing to do with the suspicion on myself. Also just very disappointed that I claimed with two hours until End of Day and everyone sat there and only started being suspicious with one hour until End of Day, when I had to leave, exactly like I said I would, but everyone knew that mafia would only try to do something during that time. I don't think it would have gone down that way if I had been present and able to post. I just feel really awful, that's 2/3 of my last town games I've been a blue role and managed to get lynched anyway So much for my former unlynchable self Sorry again. | ||
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