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Trfel and Shockey
Please give me your thoughts on my BC case on the bottom of Page 19. Where is it strong, where is it weak, and is it overall compelling enough to move BC as #1 on the scum list.
This hasn't been too active of a game, so the town steamroller should start tonight.
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On April 07 2020 06:33 Trfel wrote: BloodyC0bbler, I'm really confused as to why that makes Hapahauli mafia. If Hapahauli is mafia and doing a double-bus with Jockmcplop, why would he so openly say he didn't care who was lynched instead of continuing to push Jockmcplop? That seems like a really stupid play to me, basically anyone would avoid doing that as mafia. It's one thing if it merely seemed like he didn't care, but openly saying it has no mafia motivation/doesn't fit a mafia mindset.
Same with Hapahauli saying he is tempted to lynch a townread before a scumread. He's obviously not actually going to do that, so why does him saying that make him mafia?
BC is just trying to bullshit his way into a case.
Just be aware that he is an experienced enough player to tell you what you want to hear. That is why he dodged suspicion on Day 1 from most of the playerbase.
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Tomorrow, there will be 6 players alive. There is a high chance that Rayn is too tunneled to vote anyone but me, and BC will obviously vote me for his nefarious purposes.
To be clear, my plan tomorrow is to vote for myself, and not to move my vote unless everyone else consolidates on BC. If everyone does not consolidate on BC, the Plurality mechanic will lead to my unstoppable lynch.
Tomorrow is between BC and myself. No one else.
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BC, off topic (and out of my steamroller persona), but have we actually played a game before? I don't remember any.
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Shockey, where are you? I know you're around.
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I understand that you're re-reading the thread, there's a fair amount of new and present content to go on. What do you make of Rayn and BC?
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I'm here and waiting yo. How goes your readthrough?
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On April 07 2020 08:55 ShoCkeyy wrote:It deals with Chezinu, and how he positions himself to be the first to kill Jock, then I ran into this post by Trfel starting to question Chez as well. Show nested quote +On April 06 2020 15:30 Trfel wrote: Actually though, what if it is Chezinu?
When he's town I'm used to him posting some relevant information/reads. Obviously in his own Chezinu way, but they are there. This game he is voting for (iirc) Jockmcplop, but I couldn't understand why, does anyone know why?
Chezinu this game just feels very different from previous games where he's been town. Still awesome and funny, but different. I'll try and read a previous Chezinu mafia game or two. Show nested quote +On April 06 2020 15:57 Trfel wrote: The most recent Chezinu mafia game I could find was six years old. And in that game he was more focused on providing reads, not less. So there goes that idea. It could also mean we don't know how his most recent mafia play can be. He's posted videos of himself, I went through them, but I don't know if anybody else did. In the day post, it's description sounds like his character likes killing people. I feel like since Rayn and Chez have some kind of alignment instantly, it's like Rayn won't suspect Chez and it'll let him slide by. Show nested quote +On April 07 2020 02:15 Hapahauli wrote: You realize that Chez only did two things this game: hard-bus his scumbuddy and give us a wonderful steak recipe... right? Kinda starts aligning with this. But you mentioned you don't want to discuss this in a later post? Any reason why?
I don't think anyone truly has a grasp on how Chez plays.
I personally feel it is difficult to entertain Chez's alignment until some of the more plausible scummers are dead. Occam's razor works for now - the most plausible explanation is that he's town, regardless of how random the vote is.
Also, I don't quite get this:
Kinda starts aligning with this. But you mentioned you don't want to discuss this in a later post? Any reason why?
Where did I say I didn't want to discuss Chez? In my long list-o-reads, I state something along the lines of I am not looking at Chez, because I am discounting the chance of "sophisticated" mafia plays (i.e. hard bus plays) due to how Jock was posting.
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On April 07 2020 09:08 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Also Hap. Remove the fact we both think eachother are red.
Is it same to state that we both have Shockeyy as possible red?
Is it also safe to say we both currently list Vivax and Trfel as town reads?
I know you have Rayn listed as scum over Chez. Any particular reason you think chez is safe from general suspicion at this moment in time?
Shockey is certainly a plausible red.
Vivax and Trfel are hard town reads, and they have been since Day 1.
Rayn is a stronger town read than Chez. My "reads" post is not necessarily in order. Rather, it categorizes players I would not lynch, vs. players I would consider lynching.
Fact is though, I'm not considering lynching anyone other than you tomorrow.
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On April 07 2020 09:15 ShoCkeyy wrote:Show nested quote +On April 07 2020 09:11 Hapahauli wrote:On April 07 2020 08:55 ShoCkeyy wrote:It deals with Chezinu, and how he positions himself to be the first to kill Jock, then I ran into this post by Trfel starting to question Chez as well. On April 06 2020 15:30 Trfel wrote: Actually though, what if it is Chezinu?
When he's town I'm used to him posting some relevant information/reads. Obviously in his own Chezinu way, but they are there. This game he is voting for (iirc) Jockmcplop, but I couldn't understand why, does anyone know why?
Chezinu this game just feels very different from previous games where he's been town. Still awesome and funny, but different. I'll try and read a previous Chezinu mafia game or two. On April 06 2020 15:57 Trfel wrote: The most recent Chezinu mafia game I could find was six years old. And in that game he was more focused on providing reads, not less. So there goes that idea. It could also mean we don't know how his most recent mafia play can be. He's posted videos of himself, I went through them, but I don't know if anybody else did. In the day post, it's description sounds like his character likes killing people. I feel like since Rayn and Chez have some kind of alignment instantly, it's like Rayn won't suspect Chez and it'll let him slide by. On April 07 2020 02:15 Hapahauli wrote: You realize that Chez only did two things this game: hard-bus his scumbuddy and give us a wonderful steak recipe... right? Kinda starts aligning with this. But you mentioned you don't want to discuss this in a later post? Any reason why? I don't think anyone truly has a grasp on how Chez plays. I personally feel it is difficult to entertain Chez's alignment until some of the more plausible scummers are dead. Occam's razor works for now - the most plausible explanation is that he's town, regardless of how random the vote is. Also, I don't quite get this: Kinda starts aligning with this. But you mentioned you don't want to discuss this in a later post? Any reason why? Where did I say I didn't want to discuss Chez? In my long list-o-reads, I state something along the lines of I am not looking at Chez, because I am discounting the chance of "sophisticated" mafia plays (i.e. hard bus plays) due to how Jock was posting. Is that not what you meant with the line here? Show nested quote +Chez, Trfel, and Vivax are in the do not lynch category. All of them had the opportunity to save their "teammate" but chose not to. If there is a bus play, we can explore that at LYLO. K now I gotta go, be back in like an hour at least.
Ah yes. Same answer. I am not considering Chez until we have explored more plausible options. Doing so would be purely tinfoil on a player known for "randomness" and relative unreadability.
Occam's razor.
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On April 07 2020 09:18 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On April 07 2020 09:13 Hapahauli wrote:On April 07 2020 09:08 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Also Hap. Remove the fact we both think eachother are red.
Is it same to state that we both have Shockeyy as possible red?
Is it also safe to say we both currently list Vivax and Trfel as town reads?
I know you have Rayn listed as scum over Chez. Any particular reason you think chez is safe from general suspicion at this moment in time? Shockey is certainly a plausible red. Vivax and Trfel are hard town reads, and they have been since Day 1. Rayn is a stronger town read than Chez. My "reads" post is not necessarily in order. Rather, it categorizes players I would not lynch, vs. players I would consider lynching. Fact is though, I'm not considering lynching anyone other than you tomorrow. Not saying you have to consider it tomorrow. I am more operating from the. "hey if we are both town tunneling the fuck out of eachother, lets see what we can do to make it easier to solve after the fact" Cause straight up. I die I flip green, likely hood is town then lynches you. If you get lynched over me and flip green then I am deff lynched the day after. Pretty sure mathematically the Mafia wins at that point.
I'm not worried about my ability to spew town at LYLO, if that's what you're getting at. Nor am I worried about my ability to railroad this lynch against you.
I'm wiling to entertain the conversation though. Why are Shockey and/or Chez more likely to flip scum than you?
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On April 07 2020 09:29 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Shockeyy while being pressured is more answering questions while consistently reading to catch up. He has played in 20+ people games where by this point in time we'd have 200+ pages of content. He has experience in reading / being caught up in those games. So if you post 3-5 times in a 21 page game where the first 2ish pages are pregame / signups. So a 18-19 page game, 20 posts a page where most aren't very long catching up should be well, easy. Filter diving makes it easier. Given that to get anything of substance requires constantly pushing him to respond to things, makes me see scum motivations.
Not saying he hasn't had migraines but I also remember people faking moving / random other life stuff as scum to avoid posting in game.
Chez is honestly a mixture of 2 things. Last few games ive played with him, as town, hes at least helpful in his flavour posting. You can clearly see what he wants. So far this game flavour wise, the only thing he has wanted to do was kill Andrezza. To drop a vote (never change said vote) and manage to make that specific person die is pretty lucky no? I may have bias because his steak cooking method made me die inside.
Are you entertaining anyone else in the game as plausible mafia, or just those two?
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1)In some insano world, you lynch me, then "town-BC" is captain of the ship heading into LYLO. You have one lynch. Who is more likely to flip mafia; Chez or Shockey?
2)Please link me games re: Chez meta that you are referencing.
3)How do you interpret this sequence by Jock:
On April 05 2020 21:15 Jockmcplop wrote: So far my town reads are vivax and bloody and I also wouldn't lynch rayn, or probably chez.
Vivax I already explained, he just has that spark when he's trying to solve, and you can see it here. This is a meta read though so its always a chance that this is the game where scum Vivax changes his meta. He's probably town though.
Bloody keeps saying things that I'm thinking and although that's fakeable so early in the game, I find it far more likely that he sees the game similarly to me because he's town.
I wouldn't lynch rayn here because he *seems* townie, but historically I can't read rayn for shit so I'm just giving him the benefit of the doubt really. I'll filter him in a minute and see if anything jumps out. I like the long post alot.
Chez I wouldn't lynch also because I can't read him. He's very entertaining though so best keep him alive.
Everyone else can die until we find scum, probably in the following order, scummiest first:
haphauli - Not really much to say other than I agree with bloody and rayn but he needs to come and be town or he gets lynched.
Rels Nothing.
Shockeyy Need to see more from shockeyy but he seems a bit too laid back if you know what i mean. Almost like he can't be bothered. Said he wants to have more interactions with other people so I want to see what happens if he does.
Trfel I have explained. He responded okay to pressure but I still think his case on rayn was poor and he pulled out the 'trying to get people talking' line that mafia loves. I'm trying to avoid tunnelling on him though because I've done that before when he was town.
So yeah my two biggest scumreads have barely posted. I guess that shows where I am in this game at the moment.
On April 05 2020 22:19 Jockmcplop wrote:Show nested quote +On April 05 2020 22:12 raynpelikoneet wrote: Maybe i am just bad but i don't really understand you right now because you seem to be saying Trfel is not mafia but your vote is still on him? I'm not saying that. That one or two sentences he posted made me think town, but because of his tone and the way interacting with him felt to me he's a scumlean. Its not that hard to understand tbh and I said the same thing a few posts up. My vote was only still on trfel because i hadn't moved it yet. ##unvote ##vote: shockeyy
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On April 07 2020 09:55 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On April 07 2020 09:41 Hapahauli wrote:1)In some insano world, you lynch me, then "town-BC" is captain of the ship heading into LYLO. You have one lynch. Who is more likely to flip mafia; Chez or Shockey? 2)Please link me games re: Chez meta that you are referencing. 3)How do you interpret this sequence by Jock: On April 05 2020 21:15 Jockmcplop wrote: So far my town reads are vivax and bloody and I also wouldn't lynch rayn, or probably chez.
Vivax I already explained, he just has that spark when he's trying to solve, and you can see it here. This is a meta read though so its always a chance that this is the game where scum Vivax changes his meta. He's probably town though.
Bloody keeps saying things that I'm thinking and although that's fakeable so early in the game, I find it far more likely that he sees the game similarly to me because he's town.
I wouldn't lynch rayn here because he *seems* townie, but historically I can't read rayn for shit so I'm just giving him the benefit of the doubt really. I'll filter him in a minute and see if anything jumps out. I like the long post alot.
Chez I wouldn't lynch also because I can't read him. He's very entertaining though so best keep him alive.
Everyone else can die until we find scum, probably in the following order, scummiest first:
haphauli - Not really much to say other than I agree with bloody and rayn but he needs to come and be town or he gets lynched.
Rels Nothing.
Shockeyy Need to see more from shockeyy but he seems a bit too laid back if you know what i mean. Almost like he can't be bothered. Said he wants to have more interactions with other people so I want to see what happens if he does.
Trfel I have explained. He responded okay to pressure but I still think his case on rayn was poor and he pulled out the 'trying to get people talking' line that mafia loves. I'm trying to avoid tunnelling on him though because I've done that before when he was town.
So yeah my two biggest scumreads have barely posted. I guess that shows where I am in this game at the moment.
On April 05 2020 22:19 Jockmcplop wrote:On April 05 2020 22:12 raynpelikoneet wrote: Maybe i am just bad but i don't really understand you right now because you seem to be saying Trfel is not mafia but your vote is still on him? I'm not saying that. That one or two sentences he posted made me think town, but because of his tone and the way interacting with him felt to me he's a scumlean. Its not that hard to understand tbh and I said the same thing a few posts up. My vote was only still on trfel because i hadn't moved it yet. ##unvote ##vote: shockeyy as for your 1) At the moment I would say shockeyy. I will go dig up a game of chez being helpful some point in a few hours. Might take me a bit to find a good example. 3) TBH those posts are the biggest reason I said he could be mafia/bad. In no world does it make sense to say my top scumread is x then not vote for them. His list clearly said lynch in order of Hapa, Rels, Shockeyy, Trfel. Given that shockeyy didnt say anything to move himself up that list / mixed with the fact he included someone who hadn't posted anything at all as scummier than 2 players is well, a tell imo.
2) One town game of Chez being helpful as town does not make a meta tell. You know this.
3) I wasn't clear in my question. Jock is dead, and it doesn't matter what your read on him was, or how you justified it for that matter. Knowing that he is mafia, what can we learn from that post about other players in this game?
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Still waiting for the results of your read-through Shockey...
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I have read all of your posts Shock.
Ultimately your alignment is a very important piece of that puzzle, and I'm gonna give you a hard time because I want to squeeze those juicy reads out of you.
So three questions for starters so we can begin to consolidate your opinions and feels: 1) Who is in your "do not lynch" bucket? 2) Who is in your "lynch" bucket? 3) Of Bucket #2, who is your top candidate and why? What makes them worse than other candidates?
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On April 07 2020 10:57 ShoCkeyy wrote:Show nested quote +On April 07 2020 10:44 Hapahauli wrote: I have read all of your posts Shock.
Ultimately your alignment is a very important piece of that puzzle, and I'm gonna give you a hard time because I want to squeeze those juicy reads out of you.
So three questions for starters so we can begin to consolidate your opinions and feels: 1) Who is in your "do not lynch" bucket? 2) Who is in your "lynch" bucket? 3) Of Bucket #2, who is your top candidate and why? What makes them worse than other candidates? 1) rayn, hap, trfel 2) bloodycobbler, chezinu 3) havent decided, depends on night kill sadly.
What bucket is Vivax in?
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On April 07 2020 10:36 Trfel wrote: I'm dumb, that's what you guys were talking about with the whole jarring thing. But on my phone I can't seem to find the conversation.
The "jarring" conversation between me and BC starts at post #224.
Just thinking out loud, which given the low number of posts in the thread is fine I believe.
Curious if anyone knows when Jockmcplop realized he was going to be lynched. I want to look at Jockmcplop's filter to try and get any hints to if there was an intentional bus play or not.
Looking at the thread, "19 hours ago" (according to TL timestamps) is when the 4th vote goes on Jock. There's no other voting activity on Jock, and he is lynched exactly on those votes. Jock and Shock (heheh) do vote for me subsequently. Jock begins his entrance "17 hours ago", or post #241. He's reasonably active (and seemingly trying to live) until #276/#278, which are his last posts (town-reading BC):
On April 06 2020 23:03 Jockmcplop wrote:Show nested quote +On April 05 2020 15:18 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Town Bloodyc0bbler
Leaning town Shockeyy Jockmcplop
Null Chezinu Rayn Rels
Lean scum Vivax
Scum Trfel Hapa Show nested quote +On April 06 2020 05:06 BloodyC0bbler wrote: The how is purely I didnt find his entrance as jarring mixed with people i had scum reads focusing him.
ATM id drop him down to Rels / Chez territory of null read.
Here I will update my lists for you
Town Bloodyc0bbler
Lean Town Rayn Vivax
Null Rels Shockeyy Chezinu
Lean scum Jock trfel
Scum Hapa
There is a world (with how you are currently being active) where I could see my read on you being wrong. So please keep up the posting =) I don't like the way he jumped on the jock train with everyone else but I can understand it if he sees my posts as objectively bad. I don't get why though. He's moved you up to being a town read which is confusing. I don't see how your play has changed since he was leaning scum on you. Is he just following other people's reads? The other changes seem natural to me, shockeyy down to null and rayn up to town lean. Vivax, if you say there's an algorithmic way of thinking about mafia and you get where BC is coming from with that, would you say he is consistent about through day 1 so far? Surely that's a way we can get a read on him, but I'm not familiar with the idea.
On April 06 2020 23:33 Jockmcplop wrote:Show nested quote +On April 06 2020 23:24 raynpelikoneet wrote: He said Vivax wasn't explaining his reads until he did, and his position changed on the list after that. Yeah that checks out. BC still a townread for me then.
He does have one last post at #334, but he has very obviously given up by then:
On April 07 2020 01:59 Jockmcplop wrote: trfel help
So there's roughly a 2.5 hour gap between his last "serious" post (read on BC) and the end of the game. A gap where I assume he had given up.
Given the relative lack of activity in the voting thread (suspicion pretty much immediately consolidating on Jock), I don't see much to gleam from this.
I'll take a look at the voting on Jock earlier in Day 1, but everyone seemed to go on him pretty early and hard from memory.
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On the votes on Jock in general:
Chez votes really early on Jock. There's no suspicion of Jock in the thread that I could find at the time of this vote.
On April 05 2020 17:22 Chezinu wrote: ##vote Jockmcplop
Consequences
Vivax shortly thereafter articulates the first suspicion against Jock :
On April 05 2020 17:40 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On April 05 2020 17:29 raynpelikoneet wrote: Like.... why is he mafia? I don't understand? He's just posting along and not poking anywhere. Though I'm doubting the read a little because he just seems super carefree. Warming up for a Jock vote instead on a reread, tell me what you think? I think him going after Trfel here feels a bit like he was trying to echo some sentiment (from BC but also me at the start) so it seems kind of opportunistic and he's way too focused on just talking it out with him instead of explaining what makes Trfel scum besides the post where he said he was overdefensive.
A couple of hours later, Jock fucks up and posts his "read list into Shockey Vote", which draws some definite negative attention to it. Rayn points it out in his post:
On April 05 2020 22:33 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On April 05 2020 21:15 Jockmcplop wrote:
Everyone else can die until we find scum, probably in the following order, scummiest first:
haphauli - Not really much to say other than I agree with bloody and rayn but he needs to come and be town or he gets lynched.
Rels Nothing.
Shockeyy Need to see more from shockeyy but he seems a bit too laid back if you know what i mean. Almost like he can't be bothered. Said he wants to have more interactions with other people so I want to see what happens if he does.
Trfel I have explained. He responded okay to pressure but I still think his case on rayn was poor and he pulled out the 'trying to get people talking' line that mafia loves. I'm trying to avoid tunnelling on him though because I've done that before when he was town.
So yeah my two biggest scumreads have barely posted. I guess that shows where I am in this game at the moment.
into Show nested quote +On April 05 2020 22:19 Jockmcplop wrote:On April 05 2020 22:12 raynpelikoneet wrote: Maybe i am just bad but i don't really understand you right now because you seem to be saying Trfel is not mafia but your vote is still on him? I'm not saying that. That one or two sentences he posted made me think town, but because of his tone and the way interacting with him felt to me he's a scumlean. Its not that hard to understand tbh and I said the same thing a few posts up. My vote was only still on trfel because i hadn't moved it yet. ##unvote ##vote: shockeyy I gotta nap on it, but it looks like a thing to lynch for sure.
My vote, Vivax's vote, and Trefel's vote follow shortly thereafter.
The interesting tidbitds are: 1) Good lord Chez voted early. I find it pretty mind-melting to think that his "mafia-plan" was just to fuck it, insta-bus and peace out on his buddy. It's not like any of us would really blink if Chez switched his vote at any time later in the day. 2) The more I read Jock's "readlist into Shockey vote", the more it feels like an attempt to go after an easy lynchbait target vs. some malevolent attempt to bus his "teammate".
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