[M][N]MiniFeast I - Page 6

Jockmcplop

United Kingdom10005 Posts

June 27 2019 08:23 GMT

#1137

I don't think there's a guaranteed victory here at all, but its close to that. I think treating ES and trfel as 'probably town' and putting them on the back end of the lynch list and then just working our way through it, although simple and kinda boring, gives town the best odds of winning here (unless something changes with ES or trfel that gives us a good solid reason to suspect one of them).

So the lynch list is (in order of how likely we are to be able to lynch people):

Shapelog/koshi
Eywa/Pandain/me
rayn/grack
ES/trfel

obvs hf isn't in there.

We have to get more than half way down this list with only mislynches before we can lose, and that's with successful mafia kp each time. The only possible issue there is a grack/rayn scum team and that looks incredibly unlikely to me.

Jockmcplop

United Kingdom10005 Posts

June 27 2019 08:28 GMT

#1141

Alright then if we're never lynching grack put him with hf and we have an even bigger chance of winning.

I'm shit at figuring out roleclaims and what they mean, mostly they just confuse me, so in every game I play I have a similar conversation to this at some point. If y'all are sure grack is absolutely confirmed town then yeah I'll go along with it just out of ignorance.

Jockmcplop

United Kingdom10005 Posts

June 27 2019 08:37 GMT

#1146

On June 27 2019 17:32 Pandain wrote:

Show nested quote +

We know there are three blues. HF is one. That means if everyone who has a blue claims and we have three total, those three people are confirmed. Because the host has confirmed there are three. Does that make sense?

Grack is not confirmed "yet" per se. But once the last blue is revealed (it always happens sooner rather than later) we will be able to know he is either telling the truth (3 claims total) or someone is lying (more than 3 blue claims)
That's also why if you or kelsier or shape or eywa are blue you should claim. Because you will be the last confirmed town and there's no way we will lose.

This does make sense actually yeah. So the last blue needs to claim to confirm grack really, but he's most likely town just on the back of his claim(s). OK.
I don't know why I have this feeling about grack. I think its irrational paranoia, but the gut feeling is still there even though it really looks like he's town.

Of course, if we do end up just lynching our way through that list it doesn't matter one bit either way cos we're probably gonna win anyway.

Jockmcplop

United Kingdom10005 Posts

June 27 2019 08:52 GMT

#1153

On June 27 2019 17:45 Pandain wrote:

Show nested quote +

If Jock is mafia Eywa probably is.
Almost certainly not with Kelsier. Also unlikely with shape, though I won't rule it out. I would rather lynch Trfel than believe a Jock-Kelsier team.

I don't know how anyone could even entertain the possibility of me being mafia with either shapelog or kelsier to be honest. I null read shapelog for a while but I've been pushing hard to lynch him since yesterday.

Jockmcplop

United Kingdom10005 Posts

June 27 2019 08:52 GMT

#1155

On June 27 2019 17:51 raynpelikoneet wrote:

Show nested quote +

I can agree with jock being mafia with pandain. I will check if that makes sense thread-sentiment-wise after i have slept (still havent after night shift). I heavily disagree with Pandain+Eywa combo.

I can see where this line of thought comes from, although I genuinely had the feeling day 1 that Pandain was buddying me pretty hard, which would be massively unsubtle if we were both mafia, no?

Jockmcplop

United Kingdom10005 Posts

June 27 2019 09:02 GMT

#1162

On June 27 2019 17:59 raynpelikoneet wrote:

Show nested quote +

I dont remember who was buddying who or if it even can considered as buddying. Idk why that would be unsubtle, people can agree with each other regardless of alignment.

iirc he townread me almost immediately. I'm going off memory though so check that if you think i'm wrong.

Jockmcplop

United Kingdom10005 Posts

June 27 2019 09:39 GMT

#1192

Where's koshi??
I have barely been called stupid this whole game and its disappointing.

Jockmcplop

United Kingdom10005 Posts

June 27 2019 10:07 GMT

#1208

On June 27 2019 19:05 raynpelikoneet wrote:
FF can you modkill HF because he doesn't sound like HF at all.

Are you kidding?
This game is a meta goldmine for hf.
This is what happens when he can't do all his usual stuff.

Jockmcplop

United Kingdom10005 Posts

June 27 2019 10:11 GMT

#1211

On June 27 2019 19:09 Holyflare wrote:
This game is fucking boring lol. I'm confirmed town and the 2 people everyone thinks are mafia are literally modkills and there was no night kill. I couldn't think of a more mundane scenario.

So I'll live in a world where there's a chance mafia grack made a play, however unlikely, just because it's more fun to. I don't currently think he's mafia but it's whatever. It's fun!

The thought of a grack/rayn mafia team here still amuses me greatly. I'm like, completely sure that it isn't the case but man that would be some extreme mafia play.

Jockmcplop

United Kingdom10005 Posts

June 27 2019 11:07 GMT

#1216

The problem I have with hfs line of thinking here is that the game isn't boring because town are doing boring stuff. The boring stuff is.most likely cos mafia are afk/lurking. If you try too hard to force an entertaining game town will lose because you're looking for things that probably aren't there and distracting from what is basically the most reasonable strategy for a town win.

It doesn't really matter what the most fun mafia pairing would be if its most likely just the afk players.

Jockmcplop

United Kingdom10005 Posts

June 27 2019 11:21 GMT

#1218

Well stop it and just do what you're told

Jockmcplop

United Kingdom10005 Posts

June 27 2019 11:45 GMT

#1221

Because it was a throwaway comment when I said it, but for hf it seems like his strategy for the entire game.

Jockmcplop

United Kingdom10005 Posts

June 27 2019 11:49 GMT

#1222

On June 27 2019 20:43 raynpelikoneet wrote:
like why do you do just what HF did and then basically tell him he is stupid for what he did?

It's like you don't even understand the concept of context.

Jockmcplop

United Kingdom10005 Posts

June 27 2019 11:58 GMT

#1226

On June 27 2019 20:54 raynpelikoneet wrote:
maybe i dont. maybe someone else can take a look at it too.

Its ok I can explain it to you.
When i said that to hf, its because he is refusing to go along with the idea that mafia is afk because that would be boring, hence he was pressuring you on day 1, and now pandain. His strategy for the game is to make it interesting by finding reasons to accuse people of being mafia instead of looking for the most likely mafia.

When I said it would amuse me if you and grack were mafia, I wasn't trying to pressure you and grack, I wasn't trying to convince anyone else that you guys are mafia, I just meant it would be kinda funny if it were true.

If you want you can try and convince me that those two things are the same, or you coudl admit that that isn't the case at all...

Jockmcplop

United Kingdom10005 Posts

June 27 2019 12:01 GMT

#1227

On June 27 2019 20:56 raynpelikoneet wrote:
why did you pick me with grack and not ES / Trfel into your comment?

Like literally every single time I make a comment that isn't serious you come in and question me about it as if I jsut wrote a massive essay on why i think its the real truth.

It was a jokey fucking comment. No -one thinks you and grack are mafia, which is why I said that.

Jockmcplop

United Kingdom10005 Posts

June 27 2019 12:04 GMT

#1228

OK I'm changing how I play right now for the rest of the game.
No more jokes that can be misinterpreted.
.

WELCOME TO JOCKMCPLOPBOT v1.0

Current mafia reads:
Koshi 76% mafia probability
shapelog 60% mafia probability

Current strategy:
lynch shapelog, followed by:
koshi
pandain
eywa